UBS ETRACS CMCI Industrial Metals Total Return ETN (UBM) - NYSEARCA
  • Thu, Feb. 4, 12:41 PM
    • The dollar (UUP -0.6%) is retreating again today, continuing a move which began at the start of the week and picked up steam yesterday morning when New York Fed President Bill Dudley called out the greenback's strength as a cause for concern.
    • Not coincidentally, commodity stocks are bouncing off of sharply discounted levels, with names like Freeport McMoRan, Vale, and Cemex up double digit percentages over the last day-plus.
    • Turning to countries, Brazil (EWZ +3.7%) is on a two-day tear of about 6%, and Canada (EWC +2%) of just under 3%. In its first chance to respond to Dudley's remarks, Australia (EWA +2.1%gained 2.1% overnight.
    • ETFs: DBB, BOM, RJZ, BOS, JJM, BDD, UBM, BDG, HEVY
    | Thu, Feb. 4, 12:41 PM | 6 Comments
  • Oct. 12, 2015, 9:20 AM
    | Oct. 12, 2015, 9:20 AM | 3 Comments
  • Oct. 9, 2015, 7:49 AM
    • Glencore's (OTCPK:GLCNF, OTCPK:GLNCY) planned cuts to its zinc production sends zinc prices soaring 9% overnight and bringing other base metals including copper along for the ride.
    • The move is good news for Glencore's stock price too, with shares up more than 11% in London and more than doubling since reaching a record low last week.
    • Glencore's reduced operations in Australia, Kazakhstan and South America will reduce global zinc supply by 500K metric tons/year, not a trivial amount in a 14.5M tons/year global market.
    • Zinc has, along with nearly all commodities, been under pressure from oversupply, sliding to a five-year low of $1,601.50/ton on Sept. 28.
    • Further destocking of zinc and a more visible recovery in China’s industrial activities will be needed to propel a more sustained price rally, says Xiao Fu, head of commodity markets strategy at BOCI Global Commodities.
    • ETFs: JJC, DBB, JJN, JJU, CPER, JJT, BOM, RJZ, BOS, FOIL, JJM, LD, BDD, NINI, CUPM, LEDD, UBM, BDG, HEVY
    | Oct. 9, 2015, 7:49 AM
  • Jul. 22, 2015, 12:44 PM
    • The number of requests to withdraw copper from London Metal Exchange warehouses relative to the level of global inventories fell this week to the lowest since March 2013, signaling the meltdown sweeping through commodity markets could get even worse.
    • Commodity investors see it as a bad omen because copper historically has been used as an indicator for what is to come in raw materials and as a gauge of global expansion.
    • "Concerns about copper prices and Chinese demand for copper [are] reason to be worried more generally about demand for industrial metals and a wide variety of other commodities as well," says Natixis head of commodity research Nic Brown.
    • Comex copper futures recently -1.7% to $2.433/lb., heading for the biggest loss in two weeks.
    • ETFs: JJC, DBB, CPER, BOM, RJZ, BOS, JJM, BDD, CUPM, UBM, BDG, HEVY
    | Jul. 22, 2015, 12:44 PM
  • Jan. 23, 2015, 4:56 PM
    • Copper prices extended their rout today, with the Comex March contract tumbling 3% to just above $2.50/lb. and the lowest close since July 2009.
    • Much of copper’s recent slide has been ascribed to a worsening outlook for the global economy, and the dollar's push to an 11-year high against the euro following the ECB's plans for a major bond-buying program exacerbated the move today.
    • Copper’s decline also reflects falling production costs, and a Goldman Sachs report today said further losses are on the way.
    • ETFs: JJC, DBB, CPER, BOM, RJZ, BOS, BDD, JJM, CUPM, RGRI, UBM, BDG, USMI, HEVY
    | Jan. 23, 2015, 4:56 PM | 1 Comment
  • Jan. 23, 2015, 8:21 AM
    • "The primary reason for the changes to our forecasts is cost deflation," says the team, noting "actual and anticipated U.S. dollar strength, cheaper energy and other input costs and our expectation of an improvement in mining productivity."
    • The bank cut its expectations for metals and mined raw materials over the next three years by between 10 and 20 percent.
    • Bearish on copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) even after a 20% decline over the last year, Goldman cuts its forecast for this year to $5,542 per metric ton from $6,400.
    • Facing a sustained period of oversupply, iron ore is now seen averaging $66 per ton vs. $80 previously. Gold's forecast is trimmed to $1,089 per ounce from $1,200.
    • ETFs: JJC, DBB, JJN, JJU, JJT, CPER, BOM, RJZ, BOS, LD, BDD, JJM, FOIL, NINI, CUPM, RGRI, LEDD, UBM, BDG, USMI, HEVY
    | Jan. 23, 2015, 8:21 AM | 1 Comment
  • Jan. 14, 2015, 10:28 AM
    • Freeport McMoRan (FCX -10.8%) sinks to a 52-week low as copper prices fall 4.5% to collapse to 2009 levels, though it is off overnight lows after prices were down nearly 9% at one point in London.
    • Other big global miners also are sharply lower: SCCO -7.3%, RIO -2.5%, BHP -4.4%, VALE -3.8%, CLF -5.8%.
    • Concerns over a supply glut and slowing consumption in China have weighed on copper prices in recent months; copper is often seen as an omen for the global economy because it is used in a wide array of construction and manufacturing activities, so today's precipitous drop explains much of the weakness in global equity markets.
    • The iPath Dow Jones UBS Copper Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSEARCA:JJC) is trading so heavily that nearly 60% of the average full-day volume traded in the first 10 minutes this morning.
    • ETFs: CPER, CUPM, DBB, BOM, RJZ, BOS, BDD, JJM, RGRI, UBM, BDG, USMI, HEVY
    | Jan. 14, 2015, 10:28 AM | 5 Comments
  • Mar. 12, 2014, 6:56 PM
    • While steep drops in copper, iron ore and coking coal prices have spooked investors, KGHM chief Derek White says there's no need for mining executives to panic - at least not yet.
    • There's no real threat to copper mining operations at a long-term copper price ~$3/lb., White says, but that could change if the price drops below $2.50 for a prolonged period.
    • Iron ore prices have performed better than expected in recent years, and this week’s drop brings them closer to many forecasts; analysts believe most iron ore projects are fine at a long-term price above $100/metric ton.
    • Coking coal's current $110/metric ton is still not low enough to disrupt most operations, with some exceptions; TD Securities expects Teck Resources (TCK) to defer its Quintette project in British Columbia until the market recovers.
    • ETFs: XME, COPX, CU, JUNR, PICK, JJC, DBB, CPER, RJZ, BOM, BOS, JJM, BDD, CUPM, RGRI, UBM, BDG, USMI, HEVY
    | Mar. 12, 2014, 6:56 PM | 3 Comments
  • Dec. 27, 2013, 4:29 AM
    • The WSJ shines a light onto "shadow warehouses," a hidden system of facilities that store tens of millions of tons of aluminum, copper, nickel and zinc across the globe for banks, hedge funds and commodity merchants.
    • The warehouses operate outside the London Metal Exchange's system, are unregulated, and don't provide details of their holdings. As a result, it's unclear how much metal is held in the shadow system. This lack of visibility could cause major price swings.
    • The WSJ article follows allegations that warehousing companies have artificially boosted the price of metals, particularly aluminum.
    • Companies that operate metals warehouses include Goldman Sachs (GS), Glencore Xstrata (GLCNF) and JPMorgan (JPM), although the latter is looking to sell its commodities unit.
    • Relevant tickers include VALE, AA, AWC, KALU, MNSF, CENX, NOR, BHP, RIO, ACH.
    • ETFs: DBC, JJC, DBB, DJP, GSG, RJI, GCC, USCI, CFD, JJN, JJT, BOM, RGRC, CPER, CTF, RJZ, GSC, LSC, GSP, JJU, DEE, BDD, BOS, JJM, DYY, DDP, DJCI, LD, CMD, BCM, CUPM, UCI, RGRI, UCD, UBM, FOIL, BDG, LEDD, CMDT, SBV, USMI, DPU, NINI, FTGC, CSCB, CSCR, HEVY
    | Dec. 27, 2013, 4:29 AM | 15 Comments
  • Sep. 12, 2013, 7:48 AM
    • The gathering pace of infrastructure projects and consumers' need to restock will fuel a rebound in China's commodity usage through the end of the year, says Goldman. "People are getting more positive, but they’re not super bullish, not yet,” said Goldman's Julian Zhu. “You’re going to see further upside. If you look at the early indicators in September; it seems like the overall economic activity is picking up."
    • Steel prices in particular are expected to be stronger, says Zhu. Re-bar futures in Shanghai closed at $3,713 per metric ton last night, continuing a 3-month run of higher prices, the longest streak since 2010/11.
    • Broad commodity ETFs: DJP, GSP, LSC, RJI, GSC, GCC, GSG, DBC, DPU, DJCI, UCI, USCI, DYY, UCD, DEE, CMD, DDP, RGRC, CTF, CFD CSCR, CSCB.
    • Broad base metal ETFs: JJM, RJZ, BDG, DBB, UBM, BDD, BOM, BOS, USMI, RGRI.
    • Steel: SLX.
    | Sep. 12, 2013, 7:48 AM
  • Dec. 26, 2012, 6:48 PM

    Can artificial scarcity continue propping up the aluminum market in the face of a production glut? Barclays predicts stockpiles will grow to 8.67M metric tons by the end of 2013. But with about half of all inventories possibly tied up in financing deals, many buyers are having trouble procuring supply, and analysts polled by Bloomberg expect prices to rise 14% next year. The EC recently said it's discussing the issue of premiums caused by financing deals.

    | Dec. 26, 2012, 6:48 PM
  • Dec. 4, 2011, 4:56 AM

    Graham Tuckwell, who created the first ETFs for gold and oil, is looking to sell his company, ETF Securities, for a potential price of £1B ($1.6B), the FT reports. Tuckwell's decision comes as money pours into gold ETFs and scrutiny increases on the market for the funds.

    | Dec. 4, 2011, 4:56 AM | 1 Comment
  • Sep. 23, 2011, 1:12 PM

    Microscopic Fed rates and opaque information out of China have combined to distort the prices of industrial metals, but fundamentals such as years of rising stock/usage ratios are finally catching up. YTD: Copper JJC -28.5%, Lead LD -25%, Aluminum JJU -14.9%, Nickel JJN -23.7%.

    | Sep. 23, 2011, 1:12 PM
  • Sep. 20, 2010, 2:23 PM
    Copper will be in short supply next year, so Goldman Sachs raises its rating on Freeport McMoRan (FCX +2.1%) to Buy, with a target price of $94, up from $79. Steel prices, however, will remain “range bound,” but Steel Dynamics (STLD -0.2%) is the “best positioned” U.S. steel maker. Ratings for U.S. Steel (X -1.6%) and Nucor (NUE -0.3%) are cut with lower estimates.
    | Sep. 20, 2010, 2:23 PM | 1 Comment
UBM Description
UBS ETRACS CMCI Industrial Metals Total Return is designed to track the performance of the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Industrial Metals Index Total Return, less investor fees. The CMCI Industrial Metals TR measures the collateralized returns from a basket of five futures contracts representing the industrial metals sector. The commodity futures contracts are diversified across five constant maturities from three months up to three years.
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