PowerShares DB USD Bear ETF(UDN)- NYSEARCA
  • Wed, Sep. 21, 2:25 PM
    • The FOMC as expected stayed on hold today, but signaled a near-certain rate hike before year end.
    • Currency traders aren't necessarily buying the modest hawkishness, as the dollar (UUP, UDN) has slipped about 30 pips since the news hit. Particularly strong is the yen, which is higher by more than 1% vs. the greenback.
    | Wed, Sep. 21, 2:25 PM | 5 Comments
  • Tue, Sep. 6, 12:19 PM
    • Alongside a decline in bond yields and pop in gold following this morning's unexpected dive in the ISM services index (to a five-year low), the dollar (UUP, UDN) has fallen and can't get up.
    • This morning's data point adds to misses last week from the ISM manufacturing survey and nonfarm payrolls. The chance of a September rate hike has been totally priced out of short-term rate futures, and the odds of a move anytime in 2016 have been cut to about 50%.
    • The dollar index is lower by 0.9%, with the yen's (NYSEARCA:FXY1.2% advance vs. the greenback leading overseas currencies higher.
    | Tue, Sep. 6, 12:19 PM
  • Fri, Sep. 2, 8:42 AM
    • Nonfarm payrolls advanced just 151K in August vs. expectations for 180K, July's 255K gain was revised higher by 20K, and June's 292K gain was revised lower by 21K. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9% vs. expectations for a decline to 4.8%.
    • We'll call the report a modest miss. When combined with yesterday's surprising decline in the manufacturing PMI, a September rate hike appears to be off the table.
    • Stocks are rallying, with S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) futures now higher by 0.35%. Also on the move higher is gold (NYSEARCA:GLD), up 1% to $1,330 per ounce.
    • The dollar (UUP, UDN) is down 0.3%.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield (TLT, TBT) has dipped three basis points since the report, now off one basis point on the session to 1.556%. Fed Funds futures have made a sharp move higher, essentially pricing away any chance of a rate hike this month.
    | Fri, Sep. 2, 8:42 AM | 48 Comments
  • Fri, Aug. 26, 10:15 AM
    • Speaking at Jackson Hole, Janet Yellen sounded more bullish on the economy than previously, but that shouldn't be a surprise given the improving economic news, a booming stock market, and a string of other hawkish comments out of the Fed.
    • Stocks have added a hair since her remarks hit the tape - the S&P 500 (SPY +0.4%). The dollar (UUP, UDN) initially shot higher, but has given up those gains, now down 0.2% on the session. The 10-year Treasury yield (TLT, TBT) initially climbed a couple of basis points, but is now edging lower at 1.567%.
    • Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) isn't buying the hawkishness, jumping higher by 1.05% to $1,338 per ounce.
    | Fri, Aug. 26, 10:15 AM | 17 Comments
  • Wed, Aug. 17, 2:15 PM
    • The FOMC minutes said all the right hawkish things about the chance conditions could "soon warrant" a rate hike, but the markets are reading the overall gist of the report as no rush to make a move.
    • Flat ahead of the release, the 10-year Treasury yield has turned lower by 3.2 basis points to 1.542%. TLT +0.75%, TBT -1.5%Fed Funds futures were lower, but are now flat, still pricing in about a 50% chance of one rate hike in 2016.
    • In the green prior to the minutes, the dollar (UUP, UDN) is now down 0.25%.
    • Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) has recouped some of its earlier losses, now down 0.1% to $1,354 per ounce.
    | Wed, Aug. 17, 2:15 PM | 19 Comments
  • Fri, Aug. 5, 8:46 AM
    • U.S. stock index futures have added to gains after the better-than-hoped jobs report for July, with the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQhigher by 0.4%, and the Dow (NYSEARCA:DIAup 0.5%.
    • With a September rate hike seemingly much more of a possibility, the 10-year Treasury yield has jumped four basis points to 1.54%. TLT -0.5%, TBT +1%. Fed Funds futures are still pricing in just about a 50% chance of one rate hike this year.
    • Gold has dipped about $10 per ounce. GLD -1%
    • The dollar (UUP, UDN) has popped from modestly lower on the session, to up 0.3%.
    | Fri, Aug. 5, 8:46 AM | 18 Comments
  • Tue, Jul. 26, 3:04 AM
    • Just two months before the yuan is to be included in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket for the first time, the fund's board has adopted a new methodology for calculating the amounts of its global reserve currencies.
    • New weightings of the dollar, euro, yen and pound will be set on Sept. 30 and fixed for five years, pushing the yuan a step closer to being freely usable internationally.
    • ETFs: FXE, UUP, EUO, FXY, YCS, UDN, CYB, ERO, CNY, JYN, USDU, DRR, ULE, EUFX, FXCH, YCL, URR
    | Tue, Jul. 26, 3:04 AM | 5 Comments
  • Wed, Jul. 20, 5:11 AM
    • The greenback is at a four-month high against a basket of currencies, bolstered by strong U.S. data and growing expectations the Fed may raise rates before the end of the year.
    • The dollar index is up 0.2% at 97.271, its highest level since March 10.
    • Fed funds futures rates now suggest a 40% chance of a rate hike in December, compared with less than 20% a few weeks ago.
    • ETFs: UUP, UDN, USDU
    | Wed, Jul. 20, 5:11 AM | 2 Comments
  • Fri, Jun. 24, 8:09 AM
    • The pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) is lower by 8.15% vs. the dollar to $1.3667. It's the lowest level in more than 20 years. It had sunk as low as $1.32 overnight.
    • The euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) is down 3% to $1.1045, the loonie (NYSEARCA:FXC1.8%, the aussie (NYSEARCA:FXA2.5%, and the Swiss franc (NYSEARCA:FXF2%.
    • Stronger vs. the dollar is the yen (NYSEARCA:FXY), up 3.5%.
    • UUP +2.7%, UDN -3% premarket
    • Previously: Futures down sharply as Europe crashes post-Brexit (June 24)
    | Fri, Jun. 24, 8:09 AM | 1 Comment
  • Fri, Jun. 3, 8:56 AM
    • Roughed-up by the steady hawkish talk out of the Fed in May, gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) has added about $20 per ounce to $1,234 since the 8:30 ET news of just 38K jobs being added last month (along with big downward revisions to April and March).
    • The dollar (UUP, UDN), unsurprisingly, is headed in the opposite direction, currently lower by 1%. Particularly strong vs. the greenback are the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE), yen (NYSEARCA:FXY), loonie (NYSEARCA:FXC), and pound (NYSEARCA:FXB).
    • ETFs: GLD, IAU, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GTU, UGLD, GLL, DZZ, GLDI, OUNZ, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, GYEN, GEUR, UBG, QGLDX
    | Fri, Jun. 3, 8:56 AM | 37 Comments
  • Fri, May 20, 6:30 AM
    • The dollar is cruising to its third straight week of gains as stock and commodity markets show signs that they might be able to manage another U.S. interest rate hike in the coming months.
    • With risk appetite gradually returning following a bumpy few days, U.S. futures are edging back into the green.
    • "The question for traders now is whether this Fed rate hike issue is a 'risk-on' or a 'risk-off' situation," said Saxo Bank FX strategist John Hardy.
    • ETFs: UUP, UDN, USDU
    | Fri, May 20, 6:30 AM | 3 Comments
  • Wed, May 18, 2:18 PM
    • Minutes from the FOMC's April 26-27 meeting surprised markets, with "most" on the committee expecting the Fed's next rate hike to come in June.
    • Yields, especially at the short end, are spiking, and Fed Funds futures now see about a one-in-three chance of a June move (up from about 1-in-20 at the start of the week).
    • The dollar (UUP, UDN) has moved sizably higher since the news, now up 0.4% on the session. Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD), meanwhile, has added to losses, now down 0.8% to $1,267 per ounce.
    • ETFs: GLD, IAU, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GTU, UGLD, GLL, DZZ, GLDI, OUNZ, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, GYEN, GEUR, UBG, QGLDX
    | Wed, May 18, 2:18 PM | 26 Comments
  • Wed, May 11, 6:29 AM
    • The dollar is stumbling again, succumbing to a bout of profit-taking as U.S. futures point to a fall of around a third of a percent on Wall Street.
    • The move comes after Goldman Sachs called the greenback's bottom (again), stating it "remains dollar bullish and thinks the trajectory is higher from here."
    • U.S. Dollar Index -0.2% to 94.05, easing back from Tuesday's two-week high of 94.15.
    • ETFs: UUP, UDN, USDU
    | Wed, May 11, 6:29 AM
  • Tue, May 10, 3:05 PM
    • Speaking generally, Goldman for some time now has been more bullish on the economy than most, and thus seen a faster pace of rate hikes than most. As a result, the bank has tended to be long and wrong on the dollar.
    • At heart of today's bullish call on the greenback is the currency team's belief that markets are underestimating how fast monetary policy might tighten. Short-term rate markets have all but eliminated the chance of a rate hike in June, and are pricing in little more than a 50% chance of a move at any point in 2016.
    • Chief currency strategist Robin Brooks tells Bloomberg the market reaction on Friday was telling: In response to a weak jobs number, the dollar actually rose. In fact, the greenback has been bouncing nicely for all of May, but the move is just a blip on the sizable downtrend started last December around the time of the Fed's first, and so far only, rate hike this cycle.
    • ETFs: UUP, UDN, USDU
    | Tue, May 10, 3:05 PM | 4 Comments
  • Fri, May 6, 8:47 AM
    • U.S. stock index futures have about doubled losses since April's jobs report, with the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQdown 0.55%, and DJIA (NYSEARCA:DIAdown 0.5%.
    • 160K jobs were added in April vs. expectations for 202K. The unemployment rate held steady at 5% as the labor force participation rate fell to 62.8% from 63%.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 2.5 basis points to 1.72%. TLT +0.3%, TBT -0.6%.
    • The dollar (UUP, UDN) is all over the place - knee-jerking sharply lower as the numbers hit at 8:30, but now back to where it was prior to the report, down marginally on the session.
    • Previously: Jobs disappoint; UE rate steady thanks to dip in labor force participation (May 6)
    • Previously: April jobs numbers fall short (May 6)
    | Fri, May 6, 8:47 AM | 19 Comments
  • Fri, Apr. 29, 11:34 AM
    • A board selloff in the greenback (UUP -0.7%) has gold (GLD +2%) eyeing $1,300 per ounce for the first time since early 2015. Gold is currently up 2.5% to $1,298.
    • There was modest disappointment in some 2nd-tier economic reports this morning, but other than that no clear reason for the dollar decline. Particularly strong are the euro (FXE +0.9%), Swiss franc (FXF +0.8%), and yen (FXY +1.1%). The commodity currencies (FXC +0.1%), (FXA -0.1%) aren't doing a whole lot even as oil takes out $46 per barrel.
    • ETFs: GLD, IAU, UUP, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, UDN, DGP, GTU, UGLD, GLL, DZZ, GLDI, OUNZ, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, USDU, GYEN, GEUR, UBG, QGLDX
    | Fri, Apr. 29, 11:34 AM | 42 Comments
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