UDN
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  • Fri, Dec. 2, 8:01 AM
    • "The bar was so low on Trump to the point people were expecting markets will go down 80% and global depression - and now this guy is the Wizard of Oz and so expectations are high," Jeff Gundlach tells Reuters. "There's no magic here."
    • Back to reality: Government programs take time to implement, rising mortgage rates aren't great for the "psyche" of the middle class, and HRC supporters are in no mood to spend money.
    • "There is going to be a buyer's remorse period," he says. Yields (TLT, TBT) have peaked and should move sideways from here, the dollar (UUP, UDN) is going to fall, and gold's (NYSEARCA:GLD) next move is higher.
    • DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX, TOTL) is up 2.12% through the end of November, besting 63% of peers. On a three-year basis, it's up 3.46% annualized, topping 93% of peers.
    • Other notable funds: DBL, OPP, DBLFX
    | Fri, Dec. 2, 8:01 AM | 36 Comments
  • Mon, Nov. 28, 3:37 AM
    | Mon, Nov. 28, 3:37 AM | 11 Comments
  • Thu, Nov. 24, 5:37 AM
    • The dollar is climbing past more of last year's peaks against the euro, with only the March 2015 high of $1.0457 standing in the way of a push towards parity that banks are again saying is on the cards.
    • With U.S. markets out for the Thanksgiving holiday, trade will be thinner, but the dollar is expected to extend its surge after another strong batch of U.S. economic data on Wednesday.
    • The greenback is now worth more than 7.5% against a basket of major trading partners than it was three months ago.
    • ETFs: UUP, UDN, USDU
    | Thu, Nov. 24, 5:37 AM | 19 Comments
  • Wed, Nov. 23, 10:30 AM
    • We'll get today's weakish data out of the way first - jobless claims unexpectedly jumped last week, and new home sales disappointed in October (and Sept.'s print was revised lower).
    • On the other hand, there was an unexpected big lift in consumer sentiment since the election, durable goods for October, surprised to the upside, and the 10-year Treasury yield has popped to more than a one-year high of 2.39%.
    • The dollar index has surged to its highest level in about a decade, with particular strength against the yen (NYSEARCA:FXY) and euro (NYSEARCA:FXE). UUP +0.7%
    • Gold, on the other hand, continues its big retreat, down 2.15% to $1,185 per ounce - its lowest price since February. GLD -2.15%
    • ETFs: GLD, IAU, UUP, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, UDN, DGP, GTU, UGLD, GLL, DZZ, GLDI, OUNZ, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, USDU, GYEN, GEUR, UBG, QGLDX
    | Wed, Nov. 23, 10:30 AM | 85 Comments
  • Fri, Nov. 18, 1:17 PM
    • The strength in the U.S. dollar may just be getting started after post-election forecasts were too conservative, says Credit Suisse.
    • That's after the ICE U.S. Dollar Index increased to its highest level in more than 13 years today.
    • EUR/USD: Credit Suisse predicts a 1.03 exchange rate in 90 days and 1.00 parity in a year vs. 1.05 prior on both and 1.05872 current.
    • USD/JPY: The investment firm targets a 111 rate in three months and 108 in 12 months vs. 100 and 108 prior, respectively.
    • GBP/USD: Brexit uncertainty is a factor of course, observes CS. The forecast arrives at 1.20 for 3-months and 12-months vs. 1.16 prior and 1.2338 current.
    • USD/CNY: Some depreciation is seen being allowed by the Chinese government. CS lines up an exchange rate of 7.01 for 3-months and 7.33 in a year. vs. 6.8833 current.
    • USD/MXN: Traders beware of Nafta repeal risk, warns CS. A peso at 23.0 per USD in 3 months and 25.0 in a year is the cautious forecast. The peso stood at 20.5011 per USD at last check.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • ETFs: FXE, UUP, EUO, UDN, FXB, CYB, ERO, CNY, GBB, USDU, DRR, ULE, EUFX, FXCH, URR.
    | Fri, Nov. 18, 1:17 PM
  • Wed, Nov. 16, 10:51 AM
    • The  new government about to take control in D.C. is likely to boost fiscal stimulus as the same time global growth has finally begun to accelerate, says Goldman's Jan Hatzius.
    • The Fed, he says, could be forced to jack up rates substantially more than what is implied by futures markets - which right now have priced in just one rate hike in 2017 (in addition to one next month).
    • Alongside, the ECB and BOJ are likely to continue with their stimulus. The policy divergence means even more upward pressure on the dollar (UUP, UDN).
    | Wed, Nov. 16, 10:51 AM | 2 Comments
  • Mon, Nov. 14, 4:56 AM
    | Mon, Nov. 14, 4:56 AM | 8 Comments
  • Fri, Nov. 11, 5:01 AM
    • Central banks from India to Indonesia have stepped in to stabilize their currencies on deepening concerns that Donald Trump will pursue policies that spur capital outflows from developing economies and weaken their exports.
    • Meanwhile, the dollar is on course for its best week in a year, racking up another round of gains against the yuan and peso and steadying just off the previous day's highs against the euro and yen.
    • ETFs: FXE, UUP, EUO, FXY, YCS, UDN, CYB, ERO, CNY, INR, ICN, JYN, USDU, DRR, ULE, EUFX, FXCH, YCL, URR
    | Fri, Nov. 11, 5:01 AM
  • Wed, Nov. 9, 9:45 AM
    | Wed, Nov. 9, 9:45 AM | 7 Comments
  • Wed, Nov. 9, 3:06 AM
    | Wed, Nov. 9, 3:06 AM | 28 Comments
  • Tue, Nov. 8, 4:39 AM
    | Tue, Nov. 8, 4:39 AM | 1 Comment
  • Sun, Nov. 6, 7:07 PM
    • "Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton," says the FBI after having a look at newly discovered emails.
    • Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ+1.4%, S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY+1.25%, DJIA (NYSEARCA:DIA+1.15%.
    • Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD-1%
    • The dollar (UUP, UDN+1% vs the yen (NYSEARCA:FXY), +0.5% vs. the Swiss franc (NYSEARCA:FXF).
    • Previously: FBI’s Comey: new emails don't change anything (Nov. 6)
    | Sun, Nov. 6, 7:07 PM | 478 Comments
  • Fri, Nov. 4, 2:45 AM
    • A Trump victory would lead to a wave of risk aversion, and the U.S. dollar would strengthen on the potential of a repatriation tax, RBC strategists say.
    • “The broader USD weakness of recent days is not what we would expect to see if Trump were to win the presidency.”
    • Firm says reaction will be more muted if Clinton wins. If Trump is quick to concede, it would likely renew risk appetite as well as prompt modest USD strength on the near certainty of a Fed rate hike in Dec. An inconclusive result or messy transition would keep investors on sidelines for longer; clear winners in that scenario are JPY and the volatility trade.
    • ETFs: VXX, UVXY, TVIX, XIV, UUP, SVXY, VIXY, UDN, ZIV, VXZ, VIXM, CVOL, USDU, VIIX, XVZ, XXV, TVIZ, IVOP, VIIZ, VMAX, VMIN
    | Fri, Nov. 4, 2:45 AM | 33 Comments
  • Wed, Nov. 2, 2:15 PM
    • From the policy statement: "The case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but [the committee] decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives."
    • Already down on the session, stocks are volatile, but currently still in the red with the S&P 500 (SPY -0.6%), the Dow (DIA -0.4%), Nasdaq (QQQ -0.7%), and Russell 2000 (IWM -1.2%).
    • Bond prices are adding to gains, with the 10-year Treasury yield now down five basis points to 1.78%. TLT +0.6%, TBT -1.2%
    • The dollar index (UUP, UDN) remains lower by 0.4%.
    • Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) has edged a little lower since the 2 ET announcement, but is still having a big day, up 1.4% to $1,305 per ounce.
    | Wed, Nov. 2, 2:15 PM | 43 Comments
  • Wed, Sep. 21, 2:25 PM
    • The FOMC as expected stayed on hold today, but signaled a near-certain rate hike before year end.
    • Currency traders aren't necessarily buying the modest hawkishness, as the dollar (UUP, UDN) has slipped about 30 pips since the news hit. Particularly strong is the yen, which is higher by more than 1% vs. the greenback.
    | Wed, Sep. 21, 2:25 PM | 5 Comments
  • Tue, Sep. 6, 12:19 PM
    • Alongside a decline in bond yields and pop in gold following this morning's unexpected dive in the ISM services index (to a five-year low), the dollar (UUP, UDN) has fallen and can't get up.
    • This morning's data point adds to misses last week from the ISM manufacturing survey and nonfarm payrolls. The chance of a September rate hike has been totally priced out of short-term rate futures, and the odds of a move anytime in 2016 have been cut to about 50%.
    • The dollar index is lower by 0.9%, with the yen's (NYSEARCA:FXY1.2% advance vs. the greenback leading overseas currencies higher.
    | Tue, Sep. 6, 12:19 PM
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