Ulta Earnings Preview: If Q3 Holds, Upside Ahead
Elazar Advisors, LLC
Elazar Advisors, LLC
Ulta Salon: Possible 34% Upside
NYU Stern Investment Management Research • 11 Comments
NYU Stern Investment Management Research • 11 Comments
Tue, Jun. 14, 8:49 AM
- Retail sales topped expectations in May with some categories tipping off a healthy spending trend.
- Nonstore retailers once again led all categories with 12% Y/Y growth. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) had a lot to say with that strong performance.
- Health and personal care stores were also solid with an 8% Y/Y rise in sales. Chains such as Walgreens (NASDAQ:WBA), Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD), Ulta Salon (NASDAQ:ULTA), and Sally Beauty Holdings (NYSE:SBH) continue to draw millennial interest.
- Department stores lagged once again with a 0.9% M/M drop and 6% Y/Y tail-off. A tough month of weather contributed to a 2% M/M drop in the building materials and garden equipment (HD, LOW) category.
- Restaurants performed ahead of expectations, sales were up 0.8% M/M and 6.5% Y/Y. That mark bodes well for McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) continuing its streak of staying in positive territory with comparable-store sales.
- Previously: Retail sales decelerate from April's pace (June 14)
- Retail ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXD, FDIS, RCD, PMR, JHMC, CNDF.
Sat, May 28, 12:11 PM
- The retail sector staged a comeback over the last two weeks after a decent number of companies issued strong reports to dispel some of the concerns on sleepy consumer spending in the U.S. Retailers with a sharp focus on lower price points and an e-commerce business out of Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) wheelhouse stood out.
- Ulta Salon (NASDAQ:ULTA): Sales growth sizzled for the company in Q1 and the future looks equally bright with the company's overall beauty market share only at 3%. "Ulta’s very compelling proposition of modern marketing, brand partnerships, and service offerings also strongly appeals to millennials," wrote Cowen's Olivia Chen. ULTA shares are up 26% YTD after Friday's post-earnings rally.
- Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (NASDAQ:OLLI): The discounter delivered revenue growth of 21% and a comparable-store sales gain of 5% in Q1 to leverage off some fixed costs. Wall Street loves the stock (7 of 8 ratings at Buy), while several SA contributers have deep dives into the long-term "white space" opportunity with OLLI.
- Big Lots (NYSE:BIG): Shares sailed 14% on Friday after strong earnings and are now up 32% YTD. Younger homeowners are giving Big Lots more traffic than some expected as they skip department stores. SA contributor Christopher Davis likes the fundamentals in place and makes a strong case why Big Lots has more room to rally.
- Michaels Company (NASDAQ:MIK): Shares are up 27% over the last 90 days as more investors decouple their view on the stock from broad concerns over brick-and-mortar chains. The crafty Michaels has some protection from the Amazon threat and continues to gain popularity with thrifty shoppers.
- Overstock.com (NASDAQ:OSTK): Though there's been bouncy trading around Overstock, many analysts think it's in the right space at the right time with millennials on board with its model. Shares are at their highest level in more than six months. An investment in OSTK is also a bit of side bet on blockchain technology. SA contributor Fortress Capital explains.
- Add your own under-the-radar retail gems in the comment stream.
Fri, May 27, 9:12 AM
Fri, May 27, 8:07 AM
- Ulta Salon (NASDAQ:ULTA) crushed earnings after reporting a 15% increase in Q1 same-store sales which came off of a comparison to last year's 11% increase.
- Margins soared during the quarter off the extra sales leverage.
- Traffic was up 11% and the average ticket was 4% higher.
- E-commerce sales rose 39% to $61M.
- Guidance from Ulta Salon was equally bright. The company expects Q2 sales of $1.041B to $1.058B and EPS of $1.32 to $1.37. For the full year, Ulta sees comparable sales growth of 10% to 12%.
- Previously: Ulta Salon beats by $0.16, beats on revenue (May 26)
- ULTA +7.91% premarket to $230.60.
Thu, May 26, 5:39 PM
Thu, May 26, 4:11 PM
Wed, May 25, 5:35 PM
Thu, Apr. 7, 5:36 PM
Thu, Apr. 7, 5:28 PM
- Beauty retailer Ulta (NASDAQ:ULTA) is up 3.9% after hours as it's set to join the S&P 500 April 15.
- The salon, cosmetics and fragrance store will replace Tenet Healthcare (NYSE:THC) in the index. Tenet is moving to replace Jarden (NYSE:JAH) in the S&P MidCap 400 at the same time, as Newell Rubbermaid is set to acquire Jarden on or around that date.
- Tenet is more representative of the mid-cap space, S&P said. The moves are effective after the close on April 15.
- Now read As Ulta Struggles With Margins, Future Growth Is In Doubt »
Fri, Mar. 11, 12:46 PM
Fri, Mar. 11, 10:54 AM
- The solid week for specialty retail continues after a majority of earnings report come in ahead of expectations.
- Ulta Salon (ULTA +16%) and Party City (PRTY +7.1%) were the headliners, but a host of companies realized stronger pricing than anticipated during the quarter to help offset weak traffic trends.
- Retail sector movers include FTD Companies (FTD +6.1%), Pier 1 Imports (PIR +2.3%), Sally Beauty Holdings (SBH +2.4%), Five Below (FIVE +2%), Stein Mart (SMRT +5.7%), Buckle (BKE +2.5%), Urban Outfitters (URBN +2.2%), and Tilly's (TLYS +2.9%) .
Fri, Mar. 11, 9:17 AM
Fri, Mar. 11, 9:08 AM
- Ulta Salon (NASDAQ:ULTA) is a hot topic in the retail sector after posting another strong quarter.
- Stifel Nicolaus (Hold rating): While a strong Q4 comp impressed, the company is "under-earning" right now due to spending.
- Cowen (Outperform rating): The unique "customer-centric" model should continue to underpin strong growth. PT goes to $206 from $200.
- Wells Fargo (Market Perform rating): "No holes in fundamental story today," writes WF. Investors should have confidence in margin improvement.
- KeyBanc (Overweight rating): Significant margin expansion seen for FY17. A fresh price target of $220 is lined up.
- Cabot Investing Advice: The eight straight quarters of high revenue growth (19%-22%) and strong FY16 guidance could attract more big investors.
- Previously: Ulta Salon beats by $0.15, beats on revenue (Mar. 10 2016)
- Previously: Ulta Salon +12% AH on strong Q4, upbeat guidance (Mar. 10 2016)
- ULTA +12.92% premarket to $184.50.
Thu, Mar. 10, 5:38 PM
Thu, Mar. 10, 5:22 PM
- Ulta Salon (NASDAQ:ULTA) +12.2% AH after reporting a strong Q4 earnings beat in another period of double-digit earnings and revenue gains.
- ULTA says same-store sales, which include online sales, rose 12.5% in Q4, well above the 9.4% gain analysts expected, with e-commerce sales jumping 44.2% Y/Y.
- The retailer issues upside guidance for Q1, seeing EPS of $1.25-$1.30 vs. $1.22 analyst consensus estimate on revenues of $1.016B-$1.033B vs. $1.01B consensus, and expects Q1 comparable sales to increase 9%-11%.
- For the full year, ULTA predicts 8%-10% sales growth at existing stores, overall sales to rise in the mid-to-high-teens percentage range, and EPS to advance 18%-20%, which translates to ~$5.93 - above the $5.71 analyst consensus.
- ULTA also announced a $200M accelerated share buyback program.
Thu, Mar. 10, 4:28 PM
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. is beauty retailer that provides one-stop shopping for prestige, mass and salon products and salon services in the U.S. The company, through its stores and ulta.com, offers a prestige and mass beauty products across the categories of cosmetics, fragrance,... More
Industry: Personal Services
Country: United States
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