Ulta Earnings Preview: If Q3 Holds, Upside Ahead
Elazar Advisors, LLC
Elazar Advisors, LLC
Ulta Salon: Possible 34% Upside
NYU Stern Investment Management Research • 11 Comments
NYU Stern Investment Management Research • 11 Comments
Thu, Apr. 7, 5:36 PM
Thu, Apr. 7, 5:28 PM
- Beauty retailer Ulta (NASDAQ:ULTA) is up 3.9% after hours as it's set to join the S&P 500 April 15.
- The salon, cosmetics and fragrance store will replace Tenet Healthcare (NYSE:THC) in the index. Tenet is moving to replace Jarden (NYSE:JAH) in the S&P MidCap 400 at the same time, as Newell Rubbermaid is set to acquire Jarden on or around that date.
- Tenet is more representative of the mid-cap space, S&P said. The moves are effective after the close on April 15.
- Now read As Ulta Struggles With Margins, Future Growth Is In Doubt »
Fri, Mar. 11, 12:46 PM
Fri, Mar. 11, 10:54 AM
- The solid week for specialty retail continues after a majority of earnings report come in ahead of expectations.
- Ulta Salon (ULTA +16%) and Party City (PRTY +7.1%) were the headliners, but a host of companies realized stronger pricing than anticipated during the quarter to help offset weak traffic trends.
- Retail sector movers include FTD Companies (FTD +6.1%), Pier 1 Imports (PIR +2.3%), Sally Beauty Holdings (SBH +2.4%), Five Below (FIVE +2%), Stein Mart (SMRT +5.7%), Buckle (BKE +2.5%), Urban Outfitters (URBN +2.2%), and Tilly's (TLYS +2.9%) .
Fri, Mar. 11, 9:17 AM
Fri, Mar. 11, 9:08 AM
- Ulta Salon (NASDAQ:ULTA) is a hot topic in the retail sector after posting another strong quarter.
- Stifel Nicolaus (Hold rating): While a strong Q4 comp impressed, the company is "under-earning" right now due to spending.
- Cowen (Outperform rating): The unique "customer-centric" model should continue to underpin strong growth. PT goes to $206 from $200.
- Wells Fargo (Market Perform rating): "No holes in fundamental story today," writes WF. Investors should have confidence in margin improvement.
- KeyBanc (Overweight rating): Significant margin expansion seen for FY17. A fresh price target of $220 is lined up.
- Cabot Investing Advice: The eight straight quarters of high revenue growth (19%-22%) and strong FY16 guidance could attract more big investors.
- Previously: Ulta Salon beats by $0.15, beats on revenue (Mar. 10 2016)
- Previously: Ulta Salon +12% AH on strong Q4, upbeat guidance (Mar. 10 2016)
- ULTA +12.92% premarket to $184.50.
Thu, Mar. 10, 5:38 PM
Thu, Mar. 10, 5:22 PM
- Ulta Salon (NASDAQ:ULTA) +12.2% AH after reporting a strong Q4 earnings beat in another period of double-digit earnings and revenue gains.
- ULTA says same-store sales, which include online sales, rose 12.5% in Q4, well above the 9.4% gain analysts expected, with e-commerce sales jumping 44.2% Y/Y.
- The retailer issues upside guidance for Q1, seeing EPS of $1.25-$1.30 vs. $1.22 analyst consensus estimate on revenues of $1.016B-$1.033B vs. $1.01B consensus, and expects Q1 comparable sales to increase 9%-11%.
- For the full year, ULTA predicts 8%-10% sales growth at existing stores, overall sales to rise in the mid-to-high-teens percentage range, and EPS to advance 18%-20%, which translates to ~$5.93 - above the $5.71 analyst consensus.
- ULTA also announced a $200M accelerated share buyback program.
Thu, Mar. 10, 4:28 PM
Thu, Mar. 10, 10:54 AM
- Piper Jaffray downgrades Sally Beauty (SBH -0.4%) to Neutral from Outperform. Analyst Stephanie Wissink thinks the stock is now at fair value and raises the concern that Sally Beauty doesn't have access to all of the most popular women's beauty products.
- Ultra Salon (ULTA +0.8%) discloses results after the bell today. Analysts expect revenue of $1.236B and EPS of $1.54 to be reported. Keep an eye on that inventory number. SA contributor Prescience Point called inventory levels at Ulta "unmanageable" as they outpace sales.
Wed, Mar. 9, 5:35 PM
Thu, Feb. 18, 9:38 AM
- Prescience Point warns on Ultra Salon (ULTA -2.7%).
- "Our analysis indicates $ULTA, trading at ~30x NTM P/E, has hit a saturation point. Store quality is substantially deteriorating," says the short-leaning firm.
- Shares are initiated by Prescience with a Strong Sell rating and given a lowly $88 price target (43% below current trading level).
- Prescience Point's full report on Ulta
Fri, Feb. 12, 10:54 AM
- Consumer spending in the U.S. showed some strength in January to defy some of the signals being sent by equity markets.
- "The markets may have decided that the U.S. is headed for recession, but obviously no one told U.S. consumers," said econimist Paul Ashworth.
- Though data shows consumers have pulled back on some big-ticket categories to save more, there's some pockets of retail that could surprise this year - especially if gas prices move closer to $1/gallon.
- Companies that consumers interface with daily or weekly are more likely to benefit than those in the luxury discretionary space where falling 401K or profit-sharing plan values weigh a bit heavy on demand (home improvement, jewelry, high-end auto, etc), note analysts.
- Potentially sitting in that sweet space: Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST), TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX), Ulta Salon (NASDAQ:ULTA), Columbia Sportswear (NASDAQ:COLM), Skechers (NYSE:SKX), Nike (NYSE:NKE), Foot Locker (NYSE:FL), Dollar General (NYSE:DG), Target (NYSE:TGT), Party City (NYSE:PRTY), Churchill Downs (NASDAQ:CHDN), Isle of Capri (NASDAQ:ISLE), Penn National Gaming (NASDAQ:PENN), Boyd Gaming (NYSE:BYD), Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ:CASY), McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), Cracker Barrel (NASDAQ:CBRL)... add your own in the comments.
Thu, Feb. 11, 7:26 AM
- Raymond James lifts its rating on Ultra Salon (NASDAQ:ULTA) to a Strong Buy rating.
- The company is due to report Q4 earnings on March 10. Analysts expect revenue of $1.236B and EPS of $1.53.
- ULTA -0.55% premarket to $153.00 vs. a 52-week range of $120.38 to $188.48.
Sat, Jan. 9, 10:47 AM
- The success of the retail sector during the holiday season came into focus after a number of chains issued their holiday sales reports last week and research firms weighed in with data-driven analysis.
- Lesson #1 - Early and late: 25% of all shoppers purchased a Christmas present before Halloween, while the Black Friday to Cyber Monday period disappointed. A late flurry of shopping was a boon for many large retail chains, as well as Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), FedEx (NYSE:FDX), and UPS (NYSE:UPS). Trading around anecdotal reports of Black Friday traffic now looks like an exercise in futility.
- Lesson #2 - Women over men: Sales of women's apparel were strong during the two-month period, up 10%, while demand for men's apparel tailed off significantly. A microcosm of the trend is the +8% comp reported by L Brands (NYSE:LB) - while The Men's Wearhouse (NYSE:MW) is in a -72% 3-month funk. The disastrous performance in the electronics category (BBY, CONN, HGG) reinforces the trend.
- Lesson #3 - The sweet spot of retail was in the middle: Luxury sellers (COH, KORS, RL, TIF) had a weak holiday season as F/X challenges and lackluster Asian tourism factored in, while discounters also were scrambling due to a high level of promotional activity. The $2-gas benefit seemed to help in the middle where Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Target (NYSE:TGT), Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST), TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX), and The Children's Place (NASDAQ:PLCE) set up shop.
- Lesson #4 - No slowdown in online : Holiday online sales rose 20% Y/Y. Brands such as Ulta Salon (NASDAQ:ULTA) and Victoria's Secret that sell easily through e-commerce channels are well-positioned to benefit from the trend, although for a large part of the apparel sector the e-commerce mix is a margin cruncher. Just ask Gap (NYSE:GPS), Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN), and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO).
- Sources: Planalytics.com, Chain Store Age, company holiday sales reports
Thu, Jan. 7, 10:52 AM
- A mix of positive holiday sales report peppered throughout the retail sector has brought chain store stocks back into focus.
- Add sub-$2 gas prices along with a low level of jobless claims to the mix and investors are warming back up to to beat-up sector.
- Most of the gainers against a down market day have a heavy concentration of sales in the U.S.
- The Container Store (TCS +3.8%), Ulta Salon (ULTA +1.4%), Vitamin Shoppe (VSI -0.3%), Chico's FAS (CHS +2.9%), Dillard's (DDS +2.7%), Williams-Sonoma (WSM +1.7%), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS +1.2%), Burlington Stores (BURL +4%).
- Previously: Retail chain stocks rally as $2 gas in U.S. outweighs turmoil in China (Jan. 07 2016)
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. operates as a beauty retailer in U.S. The company, through its stores, offers beauty products across the categories of cosmetics, fragrance, hair-care, skincare, bath and body products and salon styling tools, as well as salon hair care products. It also... More
Industry: Personal Services
Country: United States
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