Ultra Petroleum: Trading Like An Option
Richard Zeits • 51 Comments
Richard Zeits • 51 Comments
Ultra Petroleum: Low Natural Gas Prices And Lack Of Hedges Necessitate Asset Sales
Richard Zeits • 10 Comments
Richard Zeits • 10 Comments
Thu, Jan. 21, 12:45 PM
Wed, Jan. 13, 2:38 PM
- Whiting Petroleum (WLL -9.7%) is downgraded to Neutral from Buy with a $7 price target, slashed from $19, at UBS, which calculates that even under its reduced $800M capex forecast, WLL still outspends discretionary cash flow by ~$100M in 2016 at $40 oil, pushing debt/EBITDA to ~5.3x, above the oily peer average of ~4x.
- The firm cuts its estimated 2016-18 cash flow/share outlook to $3.35/$4.75/$7.75 from $5.00/$7.45/$9.05 and chops its 2P NAV in half to ~$12/share.
- While UBS still believes WLL offers significant long-term potential in an eventual oil price recovery, the firm expects shares will continue to price at a relative discount given its high debt load, lack of medium-term growth visibility and absence of near-term catalysts.
- UBS also downgrades Ultra Petroleum (UPL +0.3%) to Sell from Neutral with a $1 price target, cut from $5, foreseeing a struggle to maintain a capital spending profile adequate to deliver attractive growth, given UPL’s high financial leverage and the need to spend within its cash flows.
Oct. 29, 2015, 7:50 AM
- Ultra Petroleum (NYSE:UPL): Q3 EPS of $0.21 beats by $0.04.
- Revenue of $222.5M (-22.9% Y/Y) misses by $26.3M.
Oct. 28, 2015, 5:30 PM
- ABC, ABMD, AET, ALKS, ALLE, ALLT, ALLY, ALU, ALXN, AMT, APD, AVT, AVY, AWI, BANC, BBW, BC, BG, BLL, BWA, BWEN, BXLT, CCE, CHTR, CLF, CME, CMS, COP, CRI, CRR, CSH, CVE, CVI, CVRR, DBD, DFT, DIN, DLPH, EME, EPD, EXAS, EXLS, FCN, FIG, FMS, GCI, GG, GLOP, GLPI, GNC, GOV, GT, GTLS, GTXI, HAR, HEES, HST, HTWR, I, IDA, IMS, INGR, IQNT, IRDM, IVZ, JAH, JCI, KEM, KERX, LDOS, LKQ, LLL, LPLA, MA, MCK, MD, MDP, MDXG, MGM, MMYT, MO, MPC, MPLX, MSCI, MTH, MTRN, MWW, NEO, NICE, NOK, NTCT, NVO, NYT, OAK, ODFL, OFC, OSK, PAG, PBI, PES, PF, PNK, POT, PPL, PX, RDS.A, RFP, RGS, RTIX, RYAM, SABR, SAN, SC, SCG, SHOO, SHW, SMP, SNE, SNMX, STM, TDY, TEVA, TFX, THRM, TPX, TWC, UAN, UBSI, UPL, VA, VICL, WRLD, WST, WWE, XEL, XYL, ZBH
Oct. 5, 2015, 10:32 AM
- The energy sector is an early leader in today's trading even after Standard & Poor's issued negative outlooks for Exxon Mobil (XOM +0.3%) and Chevron (CVX +1.9%) after Friday's close, citing high debt levels and low energy prices.
- XOM "has substantially more debt than during the last cyclical commodity price trough in 2009, while upstream production and costs are at similar levels,” S&P said, adding that “a sustained period of lower oil and gas prices will significantly reduce the company’s operating cash flow in 2015 and 2016 from 2014 levels, resulting in rising debt balances as the company sustains its capital investments and dividends.”
- The ratings agency anticipates CVX "will outspend internally generated cash flow to fund major project capital spending and dividends."
- While S&P stopped short of credit downgrades - it held CVX’s long-term credit rating at AA and XOM’s at AAA - it did downgrade 12 others: CHK, WLL, UPL, DNR, LINE, BBG, LGCY, TPLM, ARP, CWEI, MPO, EXXI.
- Outlooks also were lowered for NOG and EVEP.
- Ratings were affirmed for COP, WPX, WTI and CRK.
Sep. 9, 2015, 5:43 PM
Sep. 2, 2015, 5:40 PM
Jul. 30, 2015, 7:51 AM
- Ultra Petroleum (NYSE:UPL): Q2 EPS of $0.21 beats by $0.02.
- Revenue of $208M (-29.7% Y/Y) misses by $38.77M.
Jul. 13, 2015, 5:38 PM
- Weakness in oil stocks should not be used as a buying opportunity, Barclays analysts say, viewing shares as significantly overvalued and appearing to discount an average oil price of $85-$90/bbl based on group average historical multiples.
- The firm removes Newfield Exploration (NYSE:NFX) and Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE:COG) from its list of top oil and gas stocks, leaving only Canadian Natural Resource (NYSE:CNQ), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), Southwestern Energy (NYSE:SWN), Noble Energy (NYSE:NBL) and Concho Resources (NYSE:CXO).
- Barclays' bottom group consists of five Underweight rated stocks - CHK, OTCQX:COSWF, PXD, OXY and UPL - while WPX Energy (NYSE:WPX) is bumped off the bottom list to reflect an improved outlook as well as a 20%-plus share price decline.
Jun. 16, 2015, 5:45 PM
- The strained finances at U.S. E&P shale companies caused by collapsing crude oil prices is well known, and some analysts say the pain may be compounded by a steep drop in prices for natural gas liquids caused by oversupply, partly due to infrastructure constraints.
- SM Energy (NYSE:SM) said yesterday the price it is receiving for NGLs at the Mont Belvieu delivery point fell 36% Q/Q to $16.67/bbl and that the price declines would lower its 2015 total budgeted revenue by ~$25M while not affecting its drilling or production.
- Barclays recently said Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) could see 2016 cash flow cut by up to 3% if NGL price weakness persists, while Range Resources (NYSE:RRC) may see its cash flow cut by up to 5%; APC, DVN, PXD, QEP, SWN, ECA and EOG also could see reduced cash flow related to NGL pricing, the firm said.
- Analysts at Tudor Pickering have a more optimistic view and expect an NGL pricing recovery next year, as cresting U.S. nat gas and crude production looks to be flat-to-declining through 2016, giving U.S. infrastructure time to catch up; the firm upgrades SWN to Accumulate from Hold, with GPOR, MRD, COG, RICE and ECA as other top picks, and UPL and EQT recommended on weakness.
- ETFs: UNG, UGAZ, DGAZ, BOIL, GAZ, KOLD, UNL, DCNG
Apr. 30, 2015, 7:10 AM
- Ultra Petroleum (NYSE:UPL): Q1 EPS of $0.14 beats by $0.08.
- Revenue of $219.31M (-32.8% Y/Y) misses by $22.73M.
Apr. 22, 2015, 6:53 PM
- Nomura came out bullish today on the energy E&P sector - issuing Buy ratings for MRO, PXD, EOG, CLR, APC, NFX, RRC, CNQ, CXO, ECA and SU - even as the firm does not foresee a V-shaped rebound in crude oil prices.
- Nomura believes core North American shale plays do not represent the economic marginal cost of supply in the world, which runs counter to commonly held views that largely see shale occupying the high end of the cost curve; thus as oil rebounds, so will investment in the shales, which should support prices, the firm says.
- In such an environment, Nomura says selecting stocks will depend on factors such as ”the reinvestment opportunity set, impact of oilfield technology, continued efficiencies, potential new geologic plays, management acumen and balance sheet strength."
- The firm is Neutral on DVN, HES, MUR, OAS, UPL, WLL, XEC, COG, COP and SWN; it rates NBL, APA, DNR, CHK and CVE as Reduce.
Mar. 27, 2015, 10:44 AM
- Ultra Petroleum (UPL -0.6%) is initiated with an Outperform rating and a $19 price target at Imperial Capital, which says UPL is the most leveraged company, operationally and financially, to Rocky Mountain natural gas available in the U.S. E&P sector.
- UPL is the leading operator in the Pinedale Anticline of Wyoming and was involved in deploying some of the first modern drilling and completion technologies that turned the natural gas field into a 40T cfe field.
- Since 2000, UPL has drilled more wells there than any other operator (1,670 wells), and is the lowest cost company in a very low cost, long-life tight gas play, the firm says.
Feb. 19, 2015, 9:15 AM
- Ultra Petroleum (NYSE:UPL) +3% premarket after reporting 5.4T cfe of total proved reserves at year-end 2014, a 49% increase over 2013 oil and natural gas reserves of 3.6T cfe.
- Pre-tax estimated future net cash flows discounted at 10% of the company's proved reserves totaled $7.1B, a 72% Y/Y increase from $4.1B.
- UPL's Q4 earnings report included guidance of a ~30% reduction in planned capital spending for 2015 to $460M with a ~12% production increase to 275B-285B cfe.
Feb. 19, 2015, 7:34 AM
- Ultra Petroleum (NYSE:UPL): Q4 EPS of $0.62 beats by $0.11.
- Revenue of $319.1M (+25.0% Y/Y) beats by $1.87M.
Feb. 18, 2015, 5:30 PM| Feb. 18, 2015, 5:30 PM | 7 Comments
Ultra Petroleum Corp. is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration, and acquisition of oil and natural gas properties. The Company focuses on developing a tight gas sand trend located in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming; and... More
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Independent Oil & Gas
Country: United States
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