Nov. 24, 2014, 7:45 AM
- Uralkali (OTC:URALL) is preparing to restart operations at half of its potash mine in Russia where work was halted last week after an accident, CEO Dmitry Osipov says.
- The governor of the Perm region where the Solikamsk-2 mine is located says the inflow of water at the mine had "practically stopped" and there is no danger to residents of the area, where a large sinkhole has formed.
- POT -2.6% premarket; also watch MOS, AGU, IPI.
Nov. 19, 2014, 9:55 AM
- A sinkhole is found near Uralkali's (OTC:URALL) Solikamsk-2 potash mine in Russia, where work was suspended yesterday after a water inflow.
- Uralkali does not know how seriously the mine at Solikamsk-2, which accounts for 20% of the company's capacity, would be affected, but a water inflow and resulting sinkhole in 2006 shut another Uralkali mine in the same region permanently.
- North American potash producer shares jumped 2%-5% yesterday, and are up early again today: POT +2.5%, MOS +2.4%, AGU +0.7%, IPI +2.3%.
Nov. 18, 2014, 11:25 AM
- Uralkali (OTC:URALL) shares fell by the most in a year after the potash miner suspended operations and evacuated workers from a potash mine in Russia’s Perm region because of an increase in brine inflow.
- The world’s biggest potash producer says it is monitoring the situation at the Solikamsk-2 mine, while its four other mines continue to operate normally.
- Uralkali's misfortune is sparking gains in North American potash producers: POT +5.1%, MOS +3.4%, AGU +3.4%, IPI +5%.
Nov. 22, 2013, 3:21 PM
- The end of the uncertainty weighing on Potash (POT +0.1%) and Mosaic (MOS +2.2%) may be at hand, J.P. Morgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas writes, believing the point of Uralkali's (URALL) ownership change is the alteration of its go-to-market strategy, and an execution of a change in strategy should raise the value of POT and MOS given their sensitivity to changes in product prices.
- POT and MOS are "undervalued," the firm says: Both companies have replacement values nearly twice their current share prices, POT has a 7.5%-8% sustainable free cash flow yield following the conclusion of its large potash capacity expansion, and MOS has a large share repurchase program it plans to execute beginning at the end of this month.
Oct. 2, 2013, 2:02 PM
- Agriculture and potash names are moving higher following a WSJ story suggesting a large stake in Russian potash giants Uralkali (URALL.PK +3.3%) likely will be sold to one of several local investors bidding for the company.
- Sources say the Kremlin is eager to repair the rift with Belarus that led to the collapse of the informal global potash cartel and has made clear to potential bidders that some kind of sales cooperation with the country - a close Russian ally - should be restored after any deal.
- POT +3%, MOS +3.6%, AGU +2.2%, IPI +3.4%.
- ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
Sep. 24, 2013, 10:20 AM
- Potash stocks are lower after China acquired a 12.5% stake in Russian potash producer Uralkali (URALL.PK -1.4%), a deal that could put new pressure on prices and reduce the chances of the Russia-Belarus cartel being revived.
- The deal could strengthen China's position in negotiations with other producers; China imports ~6M metric tons/year of potash, more than 10% of global demand, and the Chinese potash price is considered the global benchmark.
- The deal also could give Uralkali an upper hand in selling potash in the Chinese market ahead of Canpotex, the North American potash cartel owned by Potash (POT -1.4%), Mosaic (MOS -1.4%) and Agrium (AGU -0.8%).
- ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
Sep. 19, 2013, 2:26 PM
- The president of Belarus hints for the first time at a possible resolution in the potash fight that has rocked global markets, suggesting he is open to the idea of sending the jailed Uralkali (URALL.PK) CEO back to Russia for prosecution there.
- Belarus officials reportedly issued a copy of their case file against the CEO to Russian authorities last week as the first step in possibly sending him back to Russia, where he could stand trial without being held in custody.
- Analysts say while a settlement in the potash case may be close, it is unclear if a renewed partnership would ever be able to restore the market to where it was.
- POT -2.1%, MOS -1.3%, AGU -1.1%, IPI -3.9%, SQM -1.4%.
Sep. 16, 2013, 2:49 PM
- Shares of potash companies again push higher on reports that Uralkali (URALL.PK) could consider rejoining Belarus in a new pact.
- Russian financial daily Vedomosti outlined as many as seven potential sale options for main Uralkali owner Suleiman Kerimov and his partners, including one positing Rosneft (RNFTF.PK), which has cash in hand thanks to the dividend streams it receives from its energy holdings, as one potential buyer.
- "Rosneftegaz can consider anything, if someone makes an approach," holding company chairman Igor Sechin reportedly says, leaving the door open to a potential nationalization.
- POT +2.5%, MOS +0.2%, AGU +2.7%, IPI +8.5%, SQM +0.5%.
Sep. 13, 2013, 11:58 AM
- Rumors that Russian billionaire Suleiman Kerimov is selling his 21.7% stake in potash producer Uralkali (URALL.PK) reach a fever pitch, as news agency RIA Novosti reports a $3.7B sale to investor Vladimir Kogan; so far, neither party has issued a comment.
- POT +3.9%, MOS +3.8%, AGU +1.7%, IPI +6.1%, SQM +2%.
- ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
Sep. 11, 2013, 2:59 PM
- Potash stocks have rallied in recent days on speculation that Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov will sell his 21.7% stake in Uralkali (URALL.PK), but Scotiabank's Ben Isaacson thinks the market is putting too much weight into the potential sale.
- Even if it does happen, the analyst thinks it's no more than a "mild positive" for the sector, noting Uralkali’s CEO remains in prison in Belarus; also, the subsequent trade war between Russia and Belarus is getting worse, and the elimination of a costly export tax has allowed Belaruskali to be more aggressive in negotiating prices with buyers and selling potash into the market.
- POT -2.6%, MOS -1.1%, AGU -1.8%, IPI -0.1%, SQM +0.2%.
Sep. 10, 2013, 3:58 PM
- Russian billionaire Suleiman Kerimov, whose foundation controls 21.7% of Uralkali (URALL.PK +17.6%), reportedly is in talks to sell his stake in an effort to defuse a bitter conflict with Belarus, where authorities have jailed the potash producer's CEO.
- A deal would value Kerimov's stake at just over $4B and could be completed as early as the end of this month, but deal may not be completed at all or could take a different form; Russia considers Uralkali a strategic asset and would be unlikely to allow a foreign takeover of the company.
- Belarus President Lukashenko said today that "sooner or later, the Russians will come back to us wanting to restore the status quo."
- POT +3.6%, MOS +3%, AGU +2.7%, IPI +1.5%, SQM +1.3%.
Sep. 10, 2013, 2:58 PM
- Russian potash producer Uralkali (URALL.PK), which exited the cartel controlling almost half of global exports, says prices are unlikely to fall below $300/metric ton as Asian and Brazilian demand will support sales.
- Since exiting the joint venture, Uralkali has ramped up to maximum output after running at an average 70% in 2012; it says it sold ~800K tons of potash in August to China, India, Brazil and South Asia vs. 1.9M tons for all of Q1.
- Also, Belarus President Lkashenko reportedly says he expects Russia to approach Belarus to seek a return to the potash status quo.
- POT +2.7%, MOS +2.2%, AGU +2.5%, IPI +0.8%, SQM +2.3%.
Aug. 27, 2013, 10:34 AM
- Potash companies slide as yesterday's arrest in Belarus of the head of Russian potash company Uralkali (URALL.PK) threatens to turn into a major diplomatic row.
- The recriminations, and a threat by Belarus to hold CEO Vladislav Baumgertner for at least two months, suggest there is little hope of an early reconciliation in the potash dispute that has already lowered prices.
- The break-up of Belarusian Potash could have serious consequences for Belarus, where potash made up more than 7% of exports last year.
- POT -1.1%, MOS -1.8%, AGU -0.4%, IPI -1.6%, SQM -0.8%.
Aug. 26, 2013, 3:15 PM
- The potash spat continues to get uglier, as Belarus investigators reportedly intend to seize property and assets of Russia's Uralkali (URALL.PK) following the collapse of the joint Russian-Belarussian potash venture.
- Investigators say Uralkali had inflicted $100M in damages to Belarussian interests.
- Belarus earlier today detained Uralkali chief Vladislav Baumgertner, drawing a fierce rebuke from Moscow.
- POT +2.9%, MOS +1.7%, AGU +3.6%, IPI +2.5%, RNF +4.6%.
Aug. 26, 2013, 8:56 AM
- The head of Russian potash producer Uralkali (URALL.PK) has been detained in Belarus on suspicion of abusing his position and official powers.
- Belarus is a staunch Russian ally, but Uralkali's surprise decision to quit the potash trading venture with BPC in July strained relations between the two countries; a cheaper potash price could hit the value of Belarus' currency.
- Separately, Uralkali reportedly is in talks to buy distributors on key markets to maximize sales, part of its new low-cost strategy.
- POT +4%, MOS +3.1%, AGU +1.6%, IPI +3.7% premarket.
Aug. 6, 2013, 3:31 PM
- Fertilizer stocks, especially potash stocks, surged following a rumor that Uralkali (URALL.PK) is considering rejoining the potash cartel it destroyed last week.
- Intrepid Potash (IPI -3.9%) spiked more than other fertilizer stocks because it's the only U.S. potash pure-play, Briefing.com reported; IPI had dropped 45% since the close on July 29.
- Mosaic (MOS -1.7%), Potash (POT -0.2%) and Agrium (AGU -1.6%) all jumped on the news before settling back; CF Industries (CF -1.6%) also rose ahead of its earnings report.
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