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  • Tue, Nov. 29, 8:29 AM
    • Contrarians will perk up on news there's even fewer left to buy this morning as Jefferies lifts its view on U.S. stocks to "bullish" from "modestly bullish."
    • Citing a "regime shift" following the election, strategist Sean Darby buys into the consensus view of money flowing out of bonds and into stocks amid higher fiscal spending and inflation.
    • Darby sees the S&P 500 climbing to 2,325 by year-end 2017 - up 5.6% from last night's close, with year-over-year earnings growth of 7.4%.
    • He sees the 10-year Treasury yield - currently around 2.3% - rising to 2.5%.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • ETFs: CRF, SCHX, VV, USA, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, SYE, SBUS, ZLRG, JHML, USSD, HUSV, USWD
    | Tue, Nov. 29, 8:29 AM | 10 Comments
  • Fri, Nov. 11, 10:12 AM
    • The famed technician who has a private direct line to the desk of Steven Cohen sees the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) topping out at 2,213 next week (current is 2,163), and then falling as much as 11%.
    • DeMark also sees the yield on the 10-year Treasury topping out at around the current 2.15%.
    • As for the Trump victory, DeMark says it looks like a catalyst for the recent big moves in prices, but he bases his forecasts purely on what the charts say.
    • ETFs: CRF, SCHX, VV, USA, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, SYE, SBUS, ZLRG, JHML, USSD, HUSV, USWD
    | Fri, Nov. 11, 10:12 AM | 10 Comments
  • Wed, Nov. 2, 9:50 AM
    • "The dam is breaking, you can feel it," Jeff Gundlach tells Reuters, referring to the recent string of modest S&P 500 declines. He sees another 5-10% downside for the index.
    • Meanwhile, DoubleLine's $61.6B Total Return Bond Fund (MUTF:DBLTX) (ETF cousin: TOTL) suffered its first month of net outflows since January 2014, with $33.2M pulled. The $7.7B Core Fixed Income Fund (MUTF:DBLFX) had net inflows of $166.5M in October, bringing YTD inflows to $2.1B.
    • Having been vocally bearish on bond prices for months, Gundlach isn't surprised at least some are heeding his warnings and pulling money out of fixed income offerings.
    • Related ETFs: AGG, BND, BOND, PTY, RCS, DBL, BTZ, CRF, SCHX, VV, USA, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, SYE, SBUS, ZLRG, JHML, USSD, HUSV, USWD, STOT, DBL, DSL
    | Wed, Nov. 2, 9:50 AM | 5 Comments
  • Mon, Oct. 17, 9:32 AM
    • Liberty All-Star Equity Fund (NYSE:USA) declares $0.12/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
    • Forward yield 9.43%
    • Payable Jan. 3; for shareholders of record Oct. 28; ex-div Oct. 26.
    | Mon, Oct. 17, 9:32 AM
  • Thu, Oct. 13, 9:03 AM
    • "The possibility of a severe fall in the stock market is now very high," says HSBC technician Murray Gunn, noting rising volatility since the end of the summer, and the broadness of the recent selloff.
    • Gunn is also worried about the rising Trader's Index - an indicator combining market breadth and the trading volume of advancing and declining stocks.
    • Ben Laidler, the bank's global equity strategist, says stocks are exposed to "a dangerous combination" of risk factors like high earnings expectations, economic policy uncertainty, and the upcoming election.
    • ETFs: CRF, SCHX, VV, USA, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, SYE, SBUS, ZLRG, JHML, USSD, HUSV, USWD
    | Thu, Oct. 13, 9:03 AM | 2 Comments
  • Wed, Oct. 12, 2:13 PM
    | Wed, Oct. 12, 2:13 PM | 7 Comments
  • Tue, Sep. 6, 11:46 AM
    • Historically, periods of sub-zero long-term real Treasury yields have corresponded to very low S&P 500 P/E ratios (under 12x), but this time is different, says Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker.
    • 1) Current low bond yields aren't a viable alternative to stocks; 2) There is massive liquidity in the U.S. market; 3) The U.S. is the only major region with positive EPS growth as a base case; 4) Investors aren't positioned for major upside.
    • Parker and team lift their base case target on the S&P 500 to 2,300 from 2,200. The index currently sits at $2,180.
    • ETFs: CRF, SCHX, VV, USA, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, SYE, SBUS, ZLRG, JHML, USSD, USWD
    | Tue, Sep. 6, 11:46 AM | 11 Comments
  • Thu, Aug. 11, 4:05 PM
    • The number of insiders buying stock in their own companies fell 44% Y/Y in July to 316, according to Bloomberg. It's the lowest monthly total in numbers going all the way back to 1988.
    • Those selling company stock totaled 1,399 - putting the ratio of seller to buyers at a level that's been exceeded only two other times.
    • “It’s people who are looking at the fundamentals of their business every day and seeing a picture that’s deteriorating,” says fund manager James Abate.
    • ETFs: CRF, SCHX, VV, USA, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, SYE, SBUS, ZLRG, JHML, USSD, USWD
    | Thu, Aug. 11, 4:05 PM | 4 Comments
  • Tue, Jul. 19, 3:00 PM
    • Despite the post-Brexit moonshot in the stock market, investors are holding an average cash position of 5.8%, the highest level since November 2001, according to BAML's latest fund manager survey.
    • One month ago - in the caution ahead of the Brexit vote - cash levels were 5.7%.
    • BAML's contrarian "cash rule" says when average cash balances top 4.5%, investors are being overly cautious, making stocks a buy.
    • ETFs: CRF, SCHX, VV, USA, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, SYE, SBUS, ZLRG, JHML, USSD, USWD
    | Tue, Jul. 19, 3:00 PM | 20 Comments
  • Mon, Jul. 18, 10:05 AM
    • Liberty All-Star Equity Fund (NYSE:USA) declares $0.12/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
    • Forward yield 9.34%
    • Payable Sept. 12; for shareholders of record July 29; ex-div July 27.
    | Mon, Jul. 18, 10:05 AM
  • Fri, Jul. 15, 2:48 PM
    • "Investors have shunned equity funds year-to-date, but are now stampeding into the asset class for fear of missing out," says BAML's Michael Hartnett, as $10.8B poured into equity funds during the week ending July 13 - the highest in nine months. U.S. funds saw inflows of $12.6B, while Europe saw a record outflow of $5.8B - its 23rd consecutive week of outflows.
    • ETFs: CRF, SCHX, VV, USA, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, SYE, SBUS, ZLRG, JHML, USSD, USWD
    | Fri, Jul. 15, 2:48 PM | 3 Comments
  • Wed, Jul. 6, 8:45 AM
    • Investors, for now, appear to have brushed off Brexit concerns, but "a maturing economic cycle with elevated valuations, decelerating buybacks, and growing political uncertainty provide the basis for potential market weakness in the second half," say David Kostin and team.
    • Their three-month S&P 500 price target range of 1,900-2,000 suggests a drawdown of as much as 10% from current levels. Citing above-trend U.S. growth, a cautious Fed, and an earnings recovery, however, the team sees the S&P returning to about 2,100 by year-end.
    • Best bets are health care, telecom services, and consumer discretionary, with energy, materials, and industrials riskier bets.
    • ETFs: CRF, SCHX, VV, USA, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, SYE, SBUS, ZLRG, JHML, USSD, USWD
    | Wed, Jul. 6, 8:45 AM | 1 Comment
  • Wed, Jun. 8, 12:45 PM
    • An S&P 500 close to all-time highs and stretched valuations combined with a lack of growth, a Fed intent on hiking rates, and the uncertainty of a Brexit and U.S. election make for an elevated drawdown risk, says Goldman Sachs Managing Director Christian Mueller-Glissmann, reminding that selloffs in excess of 20% in major indexes are not that infrequent of an event.
    • He notes the particularly low level of the VIX as maybe setting the market up for an abrupt decline.
    • High correlations between markets are an issue too, as it makes finding a place to hide out that much harder. What about bonds? During drawdowns last summer and again at the start of 2016, fixed-income was a way less effective hedge than during the EU debt crisis, or the 2014 global growth scare, he says.
    • Mueller-Glissmann last month downgraded global stocks to Neutral, and advised clients to turn to cash and corporate debt.
    • ETFs: CRF, SCHX, VV, USA, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, SYE, SBUS, ZLRG, JHML, USSD, USWD
    | Wed, Jun. 8, 12:45 PM | 1 Comment
  • Wed, Jun. 1, 11:35 AM
    • The market may think it's braced for a summer rate hike, but it isn't, says BAML equity and quant strategist┬áSavita Subramanian, warning of an up to a 15% decline in the coming months.
    • The Fed's rush to hike is at odds with what's currently a profits recession - at least two quarters of year-over-year negative earnings growth. The central bank has only done this three other times, she says, and on two of those occasions, the market sold off over the next 12 months.
    • Big beneficiaries of low rates like consumer staples (NYSEARCA:XLP) and utilities (NYSEARCA:XLU) are also the most expensive sectors, she adds, furthering her point that the market has not priced in a hawkish Fed.
    • ETFs: CRF, SCHX, VV, USA, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, SYE, SBUS, ZLRG, JHML, USSD, USWD
    | Wed, Jun. 1, 11:35 AM | 5 Comments
  • Tue, May 31, 11:23 AM
    | Tue, May 31, 11:23 AM
  • Mon, May 16, 11:13 AM
    • The market strategist team led by David Kostin continues to expect the S&P 500 to end the year modestly above its current level, but has a list of six risks for a short- to medium-term drawdown in prices.
    • It starts with expensive prices, and at 16.7x earnings, the S&P 500 valuation ranks in the 86th percentile relative to the last 40 years. Other reasons include corporate buybacks: They've been highly supportive of stocks, but typically decline in the summer months.
    • Then there's interest rates. Markets currently are pricing in very little chance of rate hikes this year, and thus setting themselves up for a possible hawkish surprise.
    • ETFs: CRF, SCHX, VV, USA, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, SYE, ZLRG, SBUS, USSD, USWD
    | Mon, May 16, 11:13 AM