Wed, Sep. 21, 2:25 PM
- The FOMC as expected stayed on hold today, but signaled a near-certain rate hike before year end.
- Currency traders aren't necessarily buying the modest hawkishness, as the dollar (UUP, UDN) has slipped about 30 pips since the news hit. Particularly strong is the yen, which is higher by more than 1% vs. the greenback.
Tue, Sep. 6, 12:19 PM
- Alongside a decline in bond yields and pop in gold following this morning's unexpected dive in the ISM services index (to a five-year low), the dollar (UUP, UDN) has fallen and can't get up.
- This morning's data point adds to misses last week from the ISM manufacturing survey and nonfarm payrolls. The chance of a September rate hike has been totally priced out of short-term rate futures, and the odds of a move anytime in 2016 have been cut to about 50%.
- The dollar index is lower by 0.9%, with the yen's (NYSEARCA:FXY) 1.2% advance vs. the greenback leading overseas currencies higher.
Fri, Sep. 2, 8:42 AM
- Nonfarm payrolls advanced just 151K in August vs. expectations for 180K, July's 255K gain was revised higher by 20K, and June's 292K gain was revised lower by 21K. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9% vs. expectations for a decline to 4.8%.
- We'll call the report a modest miss. When combined with yesterday's surprising decline in the manufacturing PMI, a September rate hike appears to be off the table.
- Stocks are rallying, with S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) futures now higher by 0.35%. Also on the move higher is gold (NYSEARCA:GLD), up 1% to $1,330 per ounce.
- The dollar (UUP, UDN) is down 0.3%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield (TLT, TBT) has dipped three basis points since the report, now off one basis point on the session to 1.556%. Fed Funds futures have made a sharp move higher, essentially pricing away any chance of a rate hike this month.
Fri, Aug. 26, 5:13 PM
Fri, Aug. 26, 12:23 PM
- The three asset classes were all sporting nice gains in wake of Janet Yellen's Jackson Hole speech at which the Fed boss suggested we're getting close to rate hike territory.
- Sellers have emerged in the last hour though, taking the S&P 500 (SPY -0.3%), long-dated Treasurys (NYSEARCA:TLT), and gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) and oil (NYSEARCA:USO) back to either flat or in the red.
- Moving in the opposite direction is the dollar (UUP +0.5%).
Fri, Aug. 26, 10:15 AM
- Speaking at Jackson Hole, Janet Yellen sounded more bullish on the economy than previously, but that shouldn't be a surprise given the improving economic news, a booming stock market, and a string of other hawkish comments out of the Fed.
- Stocks have added a hair since her remarks hit the tape - the S&P 500 (SPY +0.4%). The dollar (UUP, UDN) initially shot higher, but has given up those gains, now down 0.2% on the session. The 10-year Treasury yield (TLT, TBT) initially climbed a couple of basis points, but is now edging lower at 1.567%.
- Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) isn't buying the hawkishness, jumping higher by 1.05% to $1,338 per ounce.
Wed, Aug. 17, 2:15 PM
- The FOMC minutes said all the right hawkish things about the chance conditions could "soon warrant" a rate hike, but the markets are reading the overall gist of the report as no rush to make a move.
- Flat ahead of the release, the 10-year Treasury yield has turned lower by 3.2 basis points to 1.542%. TLT +0.75%, TBT -1.5%. Fed Funds futures were lower, but are now flat, still pricing in about a 50% chance of one rate hike in 2016.
- In the green prior to the minutes, the dollar (UUP, UDN) is now down 0.25%.
- Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) has recouped some of its earlier losses, now down 0.1% to $1,354 per ounce.
Fri, Aug. 5, 8:46 AM
- U.S. stock index futures have added to gains after the better-than-hoped jobs report for July, with the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ) higher by 0.4%, and the Dow (NYSEARCA:DIA) up 0.5%.
- With a September rate hike seemingly much more of a possibility, the 10-year Treasury yield has jumped four basis points to 1.54%. TLT -0.5%, TBT +1%. Fed Funds futures are still pricing in just about a 50% chance of one rate hike this year.
- Gold has dipped about $10 per ounce. GLD -1%
- The dollar (UUP, UDN) has popped from modestly lower on the session, to up 0.3%.
Wed, Jul. 27, 2:18 PM
- Having had a few minutes to digest the modestly hawkish turn from the FOMC, the 10-year Treasury yield has dipped a little bit, now off 3.3 basis points to 1.531%. Odds of a September rate hike have risen just a hair to about a one-in-three chance. TLT +1%, TBT -2%
- The money quote from the policy statement: "Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished."
- The dollar (UUP +0.1%) has turned somewhat higher following the news, while gold (GLD +0.5%) has shed a couple of dollars per ounce (though still in the green on the session).
- Stocks are about where they were, the Nasdaq up modestly, the S&P 500 down a hair, and the Dow flat.
Tue, Jul. 26, 3:04 AM
- Just two months before the yuan is to be included in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket for the first time, the fund's board has adopted a new methodology for calculating the amounts of its global reserve currencies.
- New weightings of the dollar, euro, yen and pound will be set on Sept. 30 and fixed for five years, pushing the yuan a step closer to being freely usable internationally.
- ETFs: FXE, UUP, EUO, FXY, YCS, UDN, CYB, ERO, CNY, JYN, USDU, DRR, ULE, EUFX, FXCH, YCL, URR
Wed, Jul. 20, 5:11 AM
- The greenback is at a four-month high against a basket of currencies, bolstered by strong U.S. data and growing expectations the Fed may raise rates before the end of the year.
- The dollar index is up 0.2% at 97.271, its highest level since March 10.
- Fed funds futures rates now suggest a 40% chance of a rate hike in December, compared with less than 20% a few weeks ago.
- ETFs: UUP, UDN, USDU
Fri, Jul. 1, 4:26 PM
Fri, Jun. 24, 8:09 AM
- The pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) is lower by 8.15% vs. the dollar to $1.3667. It's the lowest level in more than 20 years. It had sunk as low as $1.32 overnight.
- The euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) is down 3% to $1.1045, the loonie (NYSEARCA:FXC) 1.8%, the aussie (NYSEARCA:FXA) 2.5%, and the Swiss franc (NYSEARCA:FXF) 2%.
- Stronger vs. the dollar is the yen (NYSEARCA:FXY), up 3.5%.
- UUP +2.7%, UDN -3% premarket
- Previously: Futures down sharply as Europe crashes post-Brexit (June 24)
Wed, Jun. 15, 2:22 PM
- The Fed held policy steady, but dialed back its expectations for rate hikes for the rest of this year and next.
- The Dow (DIA +0.3%), S&P 500 (SPY +0.3%), and Nasdaq (QQQ +0.1%) continue with modest gains.
- Gold (GLD +0.7%) adds about $5 per ounce to $1,294, and the dollar (UUP -0.6%) is lower since the news hit at 2 ET. Janet Yellen's press conference begins at 2:30.
Fri, Jun. 3, 4:16 PM
Fri, Jun. 3, 8:56 AM
- Roughed-up by the steady hawkish talk out of the Fed in May, gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) has added about $20 per ounce to $1,234 since the 8:30 ET news of just 38K jobs being added last month (along with big downward revisions to April and March).
- The dollar (UUP, UDN), unsurprisingly, is headed in the opposite direction, currently lower by 1%. Particularly strong vs. the greenback are the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE), yen (NYSEARCA:FXY), loonie (NYSEARCA:FXC), and pound (NYSEARCA:FXB).
- ETFs: GLD, IAU, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GTU, UGLD, GLL, DZZ, GLDI, OUNZ, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, GYEN, GEUR, UBG, QGLDX