Today, 9:23 AM
- Household spending by consumers increased 4.2% in Q2 to mark the best pace for the category since late in 2014.
- The strong read on consumer spending contrasts with the tightening by businesses amid Brexit fears, F/X pain, and political jitters.
- Retail ETFs trail broad stock market averages on the year after a May swoon, although most of the damage has been from the mall sector. Companies with a thriving e-commerce business and/or high mix of U.S. sales have held up.
- Despite the painful headline Q2 GPD miss today, the underlying resiliency shown by consumers could bode well for a variety of retailers such as Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Target (NYSE:TGT), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Kroger (NYSE:KR), Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU), Dollar General (NYSE:DG), PriceSmart (NASDAQ:PSMT), and Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM) to name a few (add your own ideas in the comments).
- Retail ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXG, PBJ, IYK, FXD, IYC, RHS, FDIS, PEJ, FSTA, PSL, SCC, RCD, UCC, PEZ, PMR, PSCC, UGE, PSCD, SZK, BITE, JHMS, IBUY, CNSF, CNDF, JHMC
Wed, Jul. 13, 11:35 AM
- It's steady as she goes again for the group of well-known consumer staples stocks that investors continue to find appealing amid global volatility and low interest rates.
- Procter & Gamble (PG +0.2%), Colgate-Palmolive (CL +0.4%), Clorox (CLX +0.6%), Kimbery-Clark (KMB +0.3%), Coca-Cola (KO +0.2%), PepsiCo (PEP +0.7%), Altria Group (MO +0.5%), Philip Morris International (PM +0.1%), Church & Dwight (CHD +0.3%), and Unilever (UN, UL) have all outperformed the S&P 500 Index this year with returns ranging from 7% to 18%. Kraft Heinz (KHC +1%), Energizer (ENR -0.6%), Hershey (HSY +0.4%), Campbell Soup (CPB +0.3%), and J.M. Smucker (SJM +0.4%) are all up at least 20% YTD.
- Goldman Sachs has an explanation on why a generous valuation is warranted for the staples favorites.
- "We raise our average Staples target multiples to 20-22X P/E, up from the 19-20X range prior, to reflect the recent decline in 10-year yield as well as some likelihood of a slower rise in yield over the next 12 months and broader market volatility," wrote the MNST)+(NYSE:STZ)+(NYSE:PF)/11822884.html" target="_blank">analyst team covering the sector in a note to investors.
- Top consumer staples picks from GS include Monster Beverage (MNST +0.4%), Constellation Brands (STZ +0.2%), Pinnacle Foods (PF +1.2%), and Post Holdings (POST +0.5%).
- Consumer staples ETFs: XLP, VDC, FXG, RHS, FSTA, PSL, PSCC.
Mon, Jun. 20, 10:48 AM
- Vanguard Materials ETF (NYSEARCA:VAW) - $0.431. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.97%.
- Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:VCR) - $0.405. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.38%.
- Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (NYSEARCA:VDC) - $0.763. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.39%.
- Vanguard Health Care ETF (NYSEARCA:VHT) - $0.429. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.40%.
- Vanguard Financials ETF (NYSEARCA:VFH) - $0.283. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.42%.
- Vanguard Information Technology ETF (NYSEARCA:VGT) - $0.350. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.37%.
- Vanguard Utilities ETF (NYSEARCA:VPU) - $0.834. 30-Day Sec yield of 3.25%.
- Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSEARCA:VDE) - $0.544. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.52%.
- Payable June 27; for shareholders of record June 23; ex-div June 21. 30 Day SEC yield as of 6/17/16.
Tue, May 17, 10:07 AM
Sat, May 14, 11:01 AM
- The retail sector stays in focus next week with Target (NYSE:TGT), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX), and Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST) all due to report on Q1 earnings to follow on a week of dismal reports and guidance from the department store sector (Nordstrom, L Brands, Macy's, Kohl's). Home improvement chains Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) are also due to spill numbers.
- The story from the Commerce Department's April read of retail sales (+3.0% Y/Y, +1.3% M/M) is one of a consumer spending on housing, entertainment, and personal care/fitness over apparel and general merchandise. The 10% Y/Y gain in the nonstore retailer category also tipped that the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Effect is magnifying.
- Amplify ETFs CEO Christian Magoon tells Seeking Alpha that the traditional retail model appears to be broken. Amplify's Online Retail ETF (NASDAQ:IBUY) is a bet on companies such as Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), GrubHub (NYSE:GRUB), Blue Nile (NASDAQ:NILE), and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) that are reeling in millennial dollars.
- Magoon on retail: "Traditional retailers face the headwinds of higher cost structures including the very real threat of increasing wages in the form of the $15 minimum wage campaign. Less flexible with inventory management, they also are more vulnerable to issues like weather and changing consumer preferences."
- Retail ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXG, PBJ, IYK, FXD, IYC, RHS, FDIS, PEJ, FSTA, PSL, SCC, RCD, UCC, PEZ, PMR, PSCC, UGE, PSCD, SZK, BITE.
- Apparel stocks: KATE, ANN, LULU, PVH, VNCE, CRI, UA, HBI, VFC, COLM, GIL, SQBG, JCP, KSS, DDS, M, JWN, ARO, AEO, ANF, WTSL, TLYS, CACH, ZUMZ, PSUN, EXPR, BKE, GIII, SQBG, HBI, VRA, ICON, SHOO, PERY, DXLG, BONT, GES, URBN, RL,GIL, NKE, OXM, HBI, VNCE, PERY, ICON, FL.
Fri, May 13, 8:54 AM
- Tongues are wagging over this mornings's fast April retail sales report, which comes amid a steady flow of weak earnings and lowered guidance from retailers like Macy's (NYSE:M), Kohl's (NYSE:KSS), and Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN), to name just three. So what's up?
- It turns out consumers are spending plenty, just not at traditional department stores, where sales are lower by 3% Y/Y through the year's first four months. In the meantime, sales at nonstore retailers are higher by 8.1%.
- Other areas of strength are building supplies up 9.7%, sporting goods up 7.4%, furniture up 5.6%, auto vehicle and parts up 4.5%, food services & bars up 7.4% (Shake Shack is ahead 5% this morning after strong results).
- Ten-year Treasury prices have given up their gains, with the yield now flat on the session at 1.745%.
- Consumer ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXG, PBJ, IYK, FXD, RHS, FDIS, FSTA, RCD, PMR, UGE, SZK, BITE, IBUY
Fri, Mar. 18, 7:46 AM
Tue, Mar. 15, 8:49 AM
- Retail sales fell in February to mark the second month in a row of negative growth.
- Sales fell in key categories such as auto dealers (discounting?) and general merchandise stores (TGT, WMT, COST) in a disturbing trend, while gas station sales plummeted as largely expected due to prices.
- The building materials/garden equipment category showed strength, up 1.6% M/M and 12% Y/Y, as warmer weather helped traffic for companies such as Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowe's (NYSE:LOW).
- Tepid traffic at restaurants has been a leading indicator that U.S. consumers aren't spending freely.
- Retail sector ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RETL, RTH, FXG, IYK, PBJ, IYC, FXD, PEJ, FDIS, RHS, FSTA, SCC, UCC, RCD, PSL, PMR, PEZ, UGE, PSCC, PSCD, SZK, BITE.
- Previously: Retail sales slip in February, January revised significantly lower (Mar. 15 2016)
Thu, Mar. 10, 9:54 AM
- RBC Capital lifts its price targets on two consumer staples heavyweights.
- Coca-Cola (KO +0.6%) is assigned a fresh of $51. KO is +4.5% YTD to $44.90. Shares yield 3.11%.
- Reynolds American (RAI +1.4%) earns a PT of $57. RAI is +12.8% YTD to $52.14. Shares yield 3.22%.
- There's been some debate that the run of consumer staples stocks is poised to end, but SA contributor Daryl Montgomery argues the sector is still a safe play on a technical view.
- Earlier this week, Evercore ISI's Rick Ross also came in positive on the sector (CNBC video).
- "You probably can't do much better than owning the staples on this breakout from a multiyear trading range ... against the backdrop of a world where yields are extremely low,"said Ross
- Related stocks: PM, PG, PEP, CL, ADM, KMB, STZ, DPS, SJM, HRL, CHD, TSN, HSY, CPB, [[BF.]], BF.B.
- Related ETFs: XLP, VDC, FXG, RHS, FSTA, PSL, PSCC.
Sat, Feb. 27, 10:36 AM
- Investors continue to take refuge in consumer staples stocks in a strategy that tips off defensive positioning and accounts for some positive macroeconomic factors that are underpinning volume growth in the sector.
- Consumer staples stocks trading right at their 52-week high include Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB), General Mills (NYSE:GIS), Reynolds American (NYSE:RAI), Altria (NYSE:MO), Philip Morris (NYSE:PM), Church & Dwight (NYSE:CHD), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN), Sanderson Farms (NASDAQ:SAFM), B&G Foods (NYSE:BGS), and Cott Corporation (NYSE:COT).
- Even Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) and Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), which acted as drags on consumer staples ETFs last year with their heavy weightings, are outperforming the S&P 500 Index this year.
- Some analysts think political year uncertainty and global ZIRP and NIRP question marks could keep demand for staples strong.
- Related ETFs: XLP, VDC, FXG, RHS, FSTA, PSL, PSCC
- Analysis: Consumer Staples ETFs Are Looking More Attractive Than Ever (Feb. 16)
- Prediction time: Which consumer staples stock has the most upside in 2016?
Wed, Feb. 24, 2:57 AM
- Officials in 13 states are getting tired of waiting for Congress to let them collect sales taxes from out-of-state Internet retailers, so they are moving to impose the duties themselves.
- The states want their moves to be questioned, and therefore lead to litigation, so they can ask the Supreme Court to overturn a 1992 ruling that forbids taxation of Internet sales by retailers that lack a physical location in a state.
- ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RETL, RTH, FXG, IYK, PBJ, IYC, FXD, PEJ, FDIS, RHS, FSTA, SCC, UCC, RCD, PSL, PMR, PEZ, UGE, PSCC, PSCD, SZK, BITE
Wed, Feb. 10, 2:28 PM
- The National Retail Federation forecasts retail industry sales will increase 3.1% in 2016. The mark doesn't include sales generated from gas stations, restaurants, or auto dealers.
- Non-store sales are expected to increase 6% to 9% this year.
- The 10-year average for retail industry sales is +2.7%.
- Related ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RETL, RTH, FXG, IYK, PBJ, IYC, FXD, PEJ, FDIS, RHS, FSTA, SCC, UCC, RCD, PSL, PMR, PEZ, UGE, PSCC, PSCD, SZK, BITE
Sat, Jan. 23, 2:46 PM
- The economic cost of the blizzard hitting the East Coast could run as high as $850M, according to a forecast from Planalytics.
- The tally includes lost productivity and a lower level of consumer spending over the duration of the storm - even after factoring in the impact of consumers stockpiling from chains such as Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe's (NYSE:LOW), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), and Kroger (NYSE:KR).
- The storm is broad enough to impact domestic traffic numbers for restaurant chains (MCD, QSR, WEN, CMG, DENN, DNKN, SBUX) and movie theater operators (RGC, CKEC, CNK, AMC).
- The number of cancelled flights tied to the storm is tracking rapidly toward 10K. U.S. airlines (LUV, AAL, JBLU, UAL, DAL) have become more efficient with managing major storms, but will still take a hit to Q1 revenue.
- Looking ahead: Though harsh U.S. winters have lopped off as much as 1% to 2% from retail sales in the past, the 2015-2016 season still sits comfortably in the historical range used by economists when making their projections.
- Previously: Blizzard rally for HD, LOW, BGG, TTC, ACAT, COLM, and BDE (Jan. 22)
- Previously: Storm alert for Shake Shack and Dunkin' Donuts (Jan. 22)
- Retail ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXG, PBJ, IYK, IYC, FXD, PEJ, FDIS, RHS, FSTA, SCC, UCC, RCD, PMR, PEZ, UGE, PSL, PSCC, PSCD, SZK, BITE
Thu, Jan. 7, 10:14 AM
- A large number of retail stocks are defying the global market sell-off to put in strong gains.
- The unexpected strength follows a few store chains reporting solid holiday sales growth, headlined by L Brands with a stellar 8% comp. The underlying story behind the good read may be that $2 gas prices are helping to feed consumer spending at U.S. store chains.
- Gasbuddy.com forecasts gas prices will stay low in the U.S. for all of 2016.
- Notable gainers include Wal-Mart (WMT +2%), Target (TGT +1%), Gap (GPS +2.3%), Fred's (FRED +1.2%), Express (EXPR +1.1%), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO +1.6%), Tilly's (TLYS +2.3%), Urban Outfitters (URBN +4%), TJX Companies (TJX +0.6%), Ross Stores (ROST +1.6%), Kohl's (KSS +2%), Stein Mart (SMRT +4.4%), Citi Trends (CTRN +1.7%), Buckle (BKE +4.8%).
- Related ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXG, FXD, FDIS, RHS, FSTA, RCD, PMR, BITE
Dec. 28, 2015, 10:31 AM
- MasterCard reports holiday sales rose 7.9% during the holiday season, led by strong growth for big ticket items. The growth rate is much stronger than the 3.7% gain in holiday sales forecast by the National Retail Federation.
- Online sales were up 20% Y/Y during the period which implies some acceleration in December after some Black Friday and Cyber Monday reports disappointed.
- The strong read from MasterCard on top of the volume spike at FedEx adds some weight to the theory that the 2015 holiday shopping season was back-half loaded due in part to a higher reliance on online orders. Warm weather also played a factor by pushing back some apparel buying.
- Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Target (NYSE:TGT), Macy's (NYSE:M), and Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) are seen as potential beneficiaries of the late rush, while Amazon may have captured even more market share.
- Related ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXG, PBJ, IYK, IYC, FXD, PEJ, FDIS, RHS, FSTA, SCC, UCC, RCD, PMR, PEZ, UGE, PSL, PSCC, PSCD, SZK, BITE
Dec. 22, 2015, 2:10 PM
Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF seeks to track the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of consumer staples stocks.
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Sector: Consumer Goods
Country: United States
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