VGLT
Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond Index ETFNASDAQ
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  • Wed, Nov. 30, 8:52 AM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield was already higher this morning, possibly helped along by a 7% moonshot in oil on reports of a deal to cut production.
    • The yield jumped further - now up 7 basis points to 2.36% - following the November ADP report showing 216K jobs added vs. just 160K expected, and 147K in October.
    • Other news to consider is Trump's Secretary pick Steven Mnuchin and his promise of tax reform - including both personal and corporate tax cuts - as a first priority.
    • TLT -1.15%, TBT +2% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Wed, Nov. 30, 8:52 AM | 6 Comments
  • Wed, Nov. 30, 7:41 AM
    • Vanguard Short-Term Government Bond ETF (NASDAQ:VGSH) - $0.0450. 30-Day Sec yield of 0.93%.
    • Vanguard Intermediate-Term Government Bond ETF (NASDAQ:VGIT) - $0.0800. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.61%.
    • Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF (NASDAQ:VGLT) - $0.1610. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.76%.
    • Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:VCSH) - $0.1360. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.02%.
    • Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:VCIT) - $0.2330. 30-Day Sec yield of 3.20%.
    • Payable Dec. 7; for shareholders of record Dec. 5; ex-div Dec. 1. 30-Day Sec yield as of 11/29/2016.
    | Wed, Nov. 30, 7:41 AM | 1 Comment
  • Mon, Nov. 28, 3:37 AM
    | Mon, Nov. 28, 3:37 AM | 11 Comments
  • Tue, Nov. 15, 9:27 AM
    • At least across the developed Western hemisphere, yields are lower across the board today, particularly in the EU periphery countries of Spain and Italy.
    • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is down four basis points to 2.22% - this despite a roaring retail sales report for October. TLT +0.65%, TBT -1.3%
    • With a 25 basis point December rate hike a near absolute metaphysical certainty, it's time to start talking about the next move after that.
    • For now, traders are pretty complacent about any sort of tightening cycle. Looking all the way out to July of 2017, Fed Funds futures are pricing in only about a 50% chance of an additional rate hike.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Tue, Nov. 15, 9:27 AM | 1 Comment
  • Mon, Nov. 14, 12:14 PM
    • Consistently bullish (and right) on fixed-income for as long as anyone can remember, Van Hoisington isn't buying the conventional wisdom that the election results mean the economy and inflation are set for a demand shock in the form of lower taxes, less regulation, and more deficit spending.
    • His view of the trajectory of the economy (sluggish) over the next four to six quarters is unchanged.
    • For tax cuts to make a positive contribution, monetary policy must "remain favorable, not adversarial," and the Fed is about to hike rates, he says. The Reagan tax cuts, he reminds, were far larger than what's being discussed, and occurred as interest rates were declining sharply.
    • Hoisington: "Markets have a pronounced tendency to rush to judgment when policy changes occur,” and were proven wrong about potential for 2009 stimulus and QE1 to ignite inflation.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • Previously: "Bond vigilantes" term comes out of retirement (Nov. 14)
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Mon, Nov. 14, 12:14 PM | 1 Comment
  • Mon, Nov. 14, 4:56 AM
    | Mon, Nov. 14, 4:56 AM | 8 Comments
  • Sat, Nov. 12, 9:04 AM
    • The president-elect's pro-business agenda is inherently "unfriendly" to bonds, Jeff Gundlach tells Barron's, as it will lead to stronger economic growth and renewed inflation.
    • Look for Trump to "amp up the deficit" to pay for infrastructure and other programs - producing an inflation rate of 3% and nominal GDP growth of 4-6%. Given that, there's no way the 10-year Treasury yield stays near its current level of 2.15%, and it could rise as high as 6% in the next four or five years. [Serious question: How does "amp up the deficit" differ in any way from what was done in 2009? Can anyone say "shovel-ready"?]
    • For now, Gundlach (DFLEX, DBLFX, DBL) remains a fan of TIPS (NYSEARCA:TIP), and has swapped a good deal of his government paper for those inflation-protected securities.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Sat, Nov. 12, 9:04 AM | 205 Comments
  • Fri, Nov. 11, 4:39 PM
    • The bond market was closed today for Veteran's Day, but the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT) was open for business and it fell another 0.6%, bringing its loss this week to 7.4% - the largest weekly decline since inception in 2002. Its leveraged inverse cousin, the ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year ETF (NYSEARCA:TBTgained more than 14% for the week.
    • The yield on the 10-year Treasury had its biggest surge in three years, closing the week at 2.15%.
    • In no surprise, the flow out of fixed income came as the S&P 500 posted its best week in two years, and the Dow its best week in five years.
    • The sharp rise in yields - not just in the U.S., but globally - could snuff out global reflation, warns Goldman, which sees 2.50% as a level the U.S. economy can handle without threatening growth.
    • Related ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Fri, Nov. 11, 4:39 PM
  • Thu, Nov. 10, 11:06 AM
    | Thu, Nov. 10, 11:06 AM | 49 Comments
  • Thu, Nov. 10, 2:41 AM
    | Thu, Nov. 10, 2:41 AM | 1 Comment
  • Tue, Nov. 8, 9:27 PM
    | Tue, Nov. 8, 9:27 PM | 40 Comments
  • Tue, Nov. 8, 4:39 AM
    | Tue, Nov. 8, 4:39 AM | 1 Comment
  • Wed, Nov. 2, 9:39 AM
    • Long-dated Treasury prices had been nicely higher earlier this morning, and the ADP jobs report - just 147K private-sector jobs added in October vs. 170K predicted - figured to boost those gains.
    • Not so, however, as the 10-year Treasury yield has returned to 1.82% - flat on the session.
    • Alongside October's ADP print - the weakest since May - September's originally reported 154K gain was revised all the way up to 202K.
    • The government releases its jobs numbers on Friday, and the consensus forecast is for 169K vs. 151K added in September.
    • TLT +0.1%, TBT -0.2% early in the session.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Wed, Nov. 2, 9:39 AM | 10 Comments
  • Tue, Nov. 1, 10:19 AM
    • The manufacturing PMI reversed September's sizable drop, bouncing in October to 51.9 from 51.5. Expectations had been for 51.6.
    • New Orders, however, fell to 52.1 from 55.1. Growing were Production to 54.6 from 52.8, Employment to 52.9 from 49.7, and Supplier Deliveries to 52.2 from 50.3 (slowing more). Prices Paid rose to 54.5 from 53.0.
    • Backlogs fell to 45.5 from 49.5.
    • Full report
    • Bond prices were already down ahead of the print, and they remain lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield up four basis points to 1.87%. TLT -0.7%, TBT +1.4%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Tue, Nov. 1, 10:19 AM
  • Mon, Oct. 31, 12:41 PM
    • Vanguard Short-Term Government Bond ETF (NASDAQ:VGSH) - $0.0400. 30-Day Sec yield of 0.79%.
    • Vanguard Intermediate-Term Government Bond ETF (NASDAQ:VGIT) - $0.0790. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.27%.
    • Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF (NASDAQ:VGLT) - $0.1600. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.35%.
    • Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:VCSH) - $0.1370. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.78%.
    • Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:VCIT) - $0.2340. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.78%.
    • Payable Nov. 7; for shareholders of record Nov. 3; ex-div Nov. 1. 30-Day Sec yield as of 10/28/2016.
    | Mon, Oct. 31, 12:41 PM | 8 Comments
  • Thu, Oct. 27, 9:25 AM
    • It's a global event, with the German 10-year Bund yield up 6.5 basis points to 0.152% - a month ago, this was yielding about negative 0.15%.
    • The Italian 10-year is up 4.5 bps to 1.515%; Spain up 5.5 bps to 1.193%. The U.K. 10-year Gilt yield is higher by a full 8 bps to 1.133%.
    • Even the 10-year JGB yield is up 1.2 bps to -0.049%.
    • Towering above them all is the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, ahead by 4.1 bps to 1.834% - its highest level since springtime.
    • TLT -0.85%, TBT +1.7% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, GIM, TMF, BNDX, TTT, ZROZ, BWX, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, IGOV, GGOV, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Thu, Oct. 27, 9:25 AM | 6 Comments
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