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Nov. 10, 2014, 9:51 AM
- Declaring its Project VIP network expansion effort ahead of schedule, AT&T has set a 2015 capex budget of $18B, down from 2014's $21B and below a prior forecast of $20B. The figure is equal to only 13% of AT&T's 2015 revenue consensus.
- Telecom equipment and optical component makers, many of whom have already felt the effects of AT&T's subdued 2014 wireline capex, are off in early trading. CSCO -1.4%. ALU -4.8%. CIEN -6.6%. ADTN -7.8%. JNPR -2.5%. RKUS -2.1%. SONS -2.9%. FNSR -2.9%. JDSU -1.1%. RKUS -2.1%. XXIA -2%. FFIV -1.6%. ERIC -1.7%.
- Cisco delivers its FQ1 report on Wednesday. The networking giant reported an 11% Y/Y FQ4 drop in service provider orders, thanks to both weak demand and share loss.
Oct. 29, 2014, 4:24 PM
- JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ:JDSU) expects FQ2 revenue of $445M (+/- $12M) and EPS of $0.15 (+/- $0.03), below a consensus of $445.9M and $0.17 at the midpoints. Given the bad news seen by many peers and suppliers, investors aren't upset with the numbers.
- Consumer/commercial optical products (about to be spun off) saw revenue rise 6.3% Q/Q and 2.3% Y/Y in FQ1 to $209.3M. Network enablement (test equipment) -19.8% and -8.5% to $132.8M; service enablement (boosted by M&A) +10.6% and +79.9% to $48.2M; optical security/performance +1.6% and -17.5% to $43.3M.
- Gross margin was 49%, -100 bps Q/Q and +270 bps Y/Y. GAAP opex +9% Y/Y to $195.1M.
- FQ1 results, PR
Oct. 29, 2014, 4:10 PM
- JDS Uniphase Corporation (NASDAQ:JDSU): FQ1 EPS of $0.14 beats by $0.04.
- Revenue of $433.6M (+1.1% Y/Y) beats by $16.93M.
- Shares -0.65% AH.
Oct. 24, 2014, 12:32 PM
- Though Ericsson (ERIC -3%) beat Q3 estimates, the mobile infrastructure giant stated North American business activity "slowed down during the quarter as operators currently focus on cash flow optimization." It added North American spending patterns make it tough to judge near-term demand.
- Ericsson's North American sales fell 3% Y/Y to $1.93B, partly offsetting strong growth in China, India (+56%), the Middle East (+38%), and other emerging markets. Top-line figures were boosted some by M&A.
- AT&T and Verizon have been taking cautious approaches to capex, and Sprint (though investing heavily in 4G following the SoftBank deal) has been looking to cut costs under new CEO Marcelo Claure. The U.S. and Japan have been ahead of many other developed markets in ramping 4G coverage.
- Juniper (JNPR -6.3%) offered light Q4 guidance two weeks after delivering a Q3 warning, and reported its service provider sales were down 6% Y/Y due to soft demand from Asia-Pac, EMEA, and (especially) U.S. carriers.
- When the world's #2 carrier router vendor was asked on the CC (transcript) about 2015 sales, CEO Shaygan Keradpir admitted Juniper has poor near-term visibility, and that a rebound could take time. "Because we think these cycles typically take 2 to 4 quarters ... our planning assumption is that growth will return in the second half of 2015."
- Nokia and Infinera recently offered more positive numbers/commentary. Bulls have argued strong data/video traffic growth will lift capex. Bears have argued soft (if not negative) carrier revenue growth will continue pressuring spending.
- Decliners: ALU -1.6%. JDSU -2%. INFN -3.1%. CIEN -2.5%. CALX -2.5%. FNSR -1.8%. ADTN -1.5%. The Nasdaq is up 0.4%.
Oct. 10, 2014, 10:58 AM
- Telecom equipment makers and their chip/component suppliers are seeing more pain after Juniper (JNPR -7.5%) and Procera (PKT -32%) issued Q3 warnings (I, II), the latest bad earnings news for an industry that has seen plenty due to soft wireline capex. A few enterprise-focused networking vendors are also having a rough day.
- Cisco (CSCO -3.1%) has fallen below $23.50, and Alcatel-Lucent (ALU -4.3%) below $2.50. Other decliners: CIEN -4.7%. JDSU -4.6%. FFIV -5.3%. ANET -7%. RKUS -5.7%. SONS -4.4%. INFN -2.4%. CYNI -3.5%. AMCC -10%. PMCS -3.4%. NPTN -7.7%.
- Analysts are defending Juniper, arguing (in remarks that also have implications for peers) bad news has been priced in and that telecom capex is likely to improve in 2015. Bulls have argued Web/mobile traffic growth and SDN/NFV investments will ultimately boost capex, in spite of industry service revenue pressures.
- The Nasdaq as a whole is down 1.2%. Chip stocks are off sharply following Microchip's warning and prediction of an industry correction.
- Yesterday: Telecom equipment stocks slump as capex worries persist
Oct. 1, 2014, 11:10 AM
- Bloomberg reports activist investor Sandell Asset Management is pushing JDS Uniphase (JDSU +2.6%) to sell (through an auction) its optical component and commercial laser ops, which the company is set to spin off from its network test equipment/software, anti-counterfeiting, and 3D sensing/gesture recognition ops.
- Sandell also reportedly wants JDS to "extract tax benefits from operating losses estimated to potentially be worth $10 a share." The firm currently holds a 2% stake.
- JDS' optical component and laser businesses accounted for $196.9M of the company's June quarter revenue of $448.6M. Optical component sales only rose 1.4% Y/Y to $156.2M, but laser sales (boosted by strong industrial cutting/chip equipment demand) rose 44.3% to $40.7M.
Sep. 11, 2014, 12:45 PM
Sep. 11, 2014, 9:14 AM
Sep. 11, 2014, 7:11 AM
- "Combined, the two companies might be valued at $9.85-$14.80 with a midpoint of $12.33," says RBC Capital, upgrading JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ:JDSU) to Outperform, with price target lifted to $18 from $11.
- Previously: JDS Uniphase to split into two public companies
- JDSU +12.4% premarket to $13.61; other optical networking names, Ciena (NYSE:CIEN) +0.8%, Finisar (NASDAQ:FNSR) +1.5%.
Sep. 10, 2014, 5:35 PM
Sep. 10, 2014, 4:18 PM
- One will be an optical components and commercial lasers company (CCOP) consisting of JDSU's current Communications and Commercial Optical Products segment.
- The other is a network and service enablement company (NSE) consisting of JDSU's current Network Enablement, Service Enablement, and Optical Security and Performance Products segments.
- The separation is expected to occur through a tax-free pro rata spinoff of CCOP to JDSU owners.
- The company also reaffirms FQ1 (ending this month) guidance of non-GAAP revenue of $405M-$425M, and EPS of $0.08-$0.12.
- SEC Form 8-K
- The stock remains halted in after-hours trade following a 3.4% rise in the regular session.
Sep. 10, 2014, 4:03 PM
Sep. 4, 2014, 4:20 PM
- Finisar (NASDAQ:FNSR) expects FQ2 revenue of $305M-$320M and EPS of $0.23-$0.27, below a consensus of $337.5M and $0.35.
- The company blames an expected Q/Q drop in wireless transceiver sales following a strong FQ1, along with weak carrier spending and "a decrease in demand from several datacom customers with lumpy order patterns." Several analysts have already voiced concerns (I, II) about weak near-term sales.
- FQ1 datacom revenue +31% Y/Y to $241.2M. Telecom revenue +6% to $86.4M.
- Gross margin -220 bps Q/Q and -310 bps Y/Y to 32%. FQ2 GM guidance is at 31%-32%. Opex +5.4% Y/Y to $69.4M.
- Shares are halted. Rival JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ:JDSU) is down 0.9% AH. Finisar and JDS both sold off in afternoon trading after Ciena issued soft guidance this morning, while blaming the timing of an AT&T contract.
- FQ1 results, PR, earnings slides (.pdf)
Sep. 2, 2014, 1:45 PM
- Ahead of Thursday's FQ1 report, Jefferies' James Kisner has downgraded Finisar (FNSR -6.2%) to Hold, and cut his target by $6 to $19.
- Kisner cites weak pricing for both datacom and telecom optical components, weaker-than-expected 100G datacom share, a Chinese inventory correction, Cisco/Huawei vertical integration risk (previous), and looming price pressure/share loss to startups and possibly Intel.
- Fellow component vendors JDS Uniphase (JDSU -2.2%), Oclaro (OCLR -1.7%), and Alliance Fiber (AFOP -2.3%) are also off, as is equipment vendor Ciena (CIEN -2.1%). JDS and Alliance were among the names that followed Finisar lower last Wednesday, following cautious notes from MKM and RBC.
- Jefferies raised alarm bells about AT&T's wireline capex in June, before Juniper and JDS offered soft guidance blamed on light North American capex.
- A lot has been priced in: Finisar now only trades for 9x FY16E (ends April '16) EPS exc. net cash.
Aug. 27, 2014, 12:52 PM
- Ahead of Finisar's (FNSR -3.9%) Sep. 4 FQ1 report, MKM's Michael Genovese has respectively cut his revenue and EPS estimates for the quarter by $3M and $0.01, albeit while reiterating a Buy.
- Genovese predicts "soft 2HCY14 carrier capex and the mix shift to low margin Chinese sales is likely to result in fairly anemic Telecom revenue growth and limited [gross margin] expansion in the near term." But he's still upbeat about Finisar's datacom sales (boosted by Web data center buildouts), and thinks telecom sales "should improve in 2HCY15 as the 100G Metro market positively inflects."
- Likewise, RBC's Mark Sue is reiterating an Outperform, but offering cautious remarks. "Inventories are creeping upward, inventory lead-times are decreasing and there’s concern that current soft-pricing may continue or spread to higher speed products."
- Sue thinks Chinese competition is affecting pricing for "low-mid speed components," and suggests Finisar should slash capex and launch a buyback. Shares plunged in June due to light FQ1 EPS guidance that stemmed from margin pressure.
- A slew of other firms with strong telecom capex exposure are also trading lower. JDSU -1.8%. INFN -1.6%. CYNI -2.4%. AFOP -1.5%. CAVM -1.4%. ZHNE -1.6%. Juniper and multiple component vendors have already reported seeing soft near-term capex trends.
- For component vendors, a decent amount of bad news has been priced in since April.
Aug. 21, 2014, 5:35 PM
Viavi Solutions Inc is a provider of network and service enablement solutions and optical products for telecommunications service providers, wireless operators, cable operators, network-equipment manufacturers and enterprises.
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