Thu, Aug. 13, 3:07 PM
- UBS' Amitabh Passi has launched coverage on the former/post-spinoff JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ:VIAV) with Buy rating and $7.50 target two days after it posted FQ4 results, issued FQ1 guidance, and announced CEO Tom Waechter has stepped down.
- Passi: "There are 3 key sources of debate on the name: a) quality of management, b) demand outlook in the test & measurement (T&M) business and c) value ascribed to the $4.5b of net operating losses, or [estimated] ~$1.5b of deferred tax assets (DTA). With the Viavi CEO having just resigned, we believe there is now an increased urgency and willingness by the Board to focus on execution excellence and stabilizing the business."
- He admits the outlook for JDS' network test/measurement equipment ops - they've seen double-digit sales declines - remains "challenged due to a combination of market transitions and execution issues." But Passi also thinks "excess cash, DTAs, as well as the healthy Optical Security Products group (OSP) limit downside." He "conservatively" ascribes a $1.15/share value due to the DTAs, compared with a ~$6/share face value. "Our [sum-of-the-parts] analysis therefore suggests a base case value for Viavi of ~$7.50/share, upside to $12/share and downside to $4.50/share."
Fri, Jul. 24, 5:31 PM
- Signet Jewlers (NYSE:SIG) is replacing DirecTV (just acquired by AT&T) in the S&P 500 after Tuesday's close. Parexel (NASDAQ:PRXL) is taking Signet's spot in the S&P MidCap 400, and Enanta Pharma (NASDAQ:ENTA) is taking Parexel's spot in the S&P SmallCap 600.
- Also: Catalent (NYSE:CTLT) is replacing JDS Uniphase (JDSU - about to carry out a spinoff) in the S&P 400 after the July 31 close. What's left of JDSU (to be known as Viavi) will replace Susquehanna Bancshares (about to be acquired) in the S&P 600, while its Lumentum Holdings spinoff will replace Comstock Resources (NYSE:CRK) in the 600.
- SIG +2.5% AH. PRXL +0.7%. ENTA +4%. CTLT +3%.
Thu, Mar. 5, 4:27 PM
- Though its FQ3 results were nearly in-line, Finisar (NASDAQ:FNSR) is guiding for FQ4 revenue of $310M-$330M and EPS of $0.22-$0.28, mostly above a consensus of $307.9M and $0.23. Compared with FQ3, FQ4 results will benefit from an extra, but be hurt by the timing of the Chinese New Year.
- Datacom revenue rose 8.5% Q/Q and 11.4% Y/Y to $234.4M, lifted by strong wireless transceiver and 40G/100G component demand; Internet data center buildouts likely boosted the latter. Telecom revenue (under pressure for a few quarters) fell 11.3% Q/Q and 14% Y/Y to $71.9M. In addition to weak carrier capex, the Q/Q drop was caused annual price cuts.
- Operating expenses rose 3% Y/Y to to $63.2M (compares with 4% revenue growth). Gross margin fell to 30% from 31.1% in FQ2 and 37.2% a year earlier (price pressure). FQ4 GM guidance is at 30%.
- Finisar is up to $21.35 AH. Rival JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ:JDSU) is following Finisar higher, rising to $13.51.
- Finisar's FQ3 results, PR, earnings slides (.pdf)
Fri, Jan. 30, 2:56 PM
- Optical networking/carrier Ethernet hardware vendor Ciena (CIEN -4%), optical component suppliers Finisar (FNSR -2.4%) and Oclaro (OCLR -2%), and telecom chipmakers AppliedMicro (AMCC -5.9%) and Cavium (CAVM -4.4%) are all off after component vendor JDS Uniphase (JDSU -7.4%) missed FQ2 estimates and provided soft FQ3 guidance.
- On its CC (transcript), JDS observed its FQ2 network enablement (test equipment) and service enablement (telecom software/services) revenue fell a combined 8% Y/Y due to "weaker carrier spending and no budget flush in historically stronger December quarter." Network enablement is expected to remain soft in seasonally weak FQ3 as customers weigh their 2015 spending plans. Service enablement is expected to grow ~24%, after growing 16.6% in FQ2.
- AppliedMicro is down 10% since providing a soft FQ4 EPS guidance (-$0.09 vs. a -$0.07 pre-earnings consensus) on Tuesday afternoon to go with an FQ3 beat. Cavium is giving back the gains it saw yesterday after beating Q4 estimates and providing strong Q1 guidance.
Thu, Jan. 29, 5:21 PM
- JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ:JDSU) expects FQ3 revenue of $418M (+/- $10M) and EPS of $0.09 (+/- $0.02), below a consensus of $431.3M and $0.14.
- Not surprisingly (previous), JDS states weak U.S. carrier spending weighed on FQ2 results. This weakness led network enablement (test equipment) revenue to fall 14.2% Y/Y to $133.7M. Optical component sales fell 4.2% to $167.1M, but laser sales (boosted by industrial demand) rose 70.2% to $40M.
- Service enablement (telecom software/services) revenue rose 16.6% to $45.7M, and optical security/performance products (includes Xbox Kinect components) fell 7.3% to $50.6M.
- Gross margin rose 10 bps Q/Q and 60 bps Y/Y to 49.1%. Op. margin was 9.9%, +80 bps Q/Q but -110 bps Y/Y. JDS expects to finish spinning off its optical component/laser ops (CCOP) by the end of calendar Q3.
Fri, Jan. 23, 10:32 AM
- Infinera (INFN +17.7%) knocked the cover off the ball yesterday afternoon, soundly beating Q4 estimates and issuing strong Q1 guidance on the back of growing demand for its DTN-X optical transmission/switching platform for 100G deployments.
- Rival Ciena (CIEN +3.7%) and optical component vendors JDS Uniphase (JDSU +2.7%) and Finisar (FNSR +2.3%) are rallying in response. The companies followed equity markets higher yesterday after Verizon guided for its 2015 capex to be slightly above 2014 levels (contrasts with AT&T's planed capex cut).
- On its CC (transcript), Infinera said it added 10 new invoiced DTN-X customers in Q4 (3 new to Infinera altogether), raising its total to 59, and that nearly half of all DTN-X clients are now opting for the company's Instant Bandwidth rapid provisioning tech. Initial revenue for the Cloud Xpress point-to-point interconnect platform was received in December, and 8 customer commitments have been received to date.
Dec. 9, 2014, 1:52 PM
- Verizon CFO Fran Shammo has promised his company will continue growing wireless capex (albeit while cutting wireline capex) to keep up with data traffic growth. Small cells and smart antennas were mentioned as areas of interest.
- The remarks have been well-received by investors in telecom equipment and component/chip vendors, many of whom have been hit hard by soft North American and (to an extent) European spending. The Nasdaq is up 0.3%.
- Gainers: JDSU +3.6%. FNSR +3.1%. CYNI +10.1%. INFN +2.8%. CIEN +1.9%. AMCC +3.7%. PMCS +3.7%. ZHNE +3%. OCLR +5.4%. AFOP +2.8%. ADTN +2.5%. UBNT +2.2%. XXIA +1.7%. CALX +3.5%. EZCH +2.9%. SONS +2.4%. Sonus is also benefiting from a bullish Wedbush coverage launch.
- The group was pummeled in November after AT&T set a 2015 capex budget of $18B, down from 2014's $21B.
Nov. 20, 2014, 1:38 PM
- Optical networking hardware vendors and their component suppliers are turning in a good day. The gains come a day after component vendor Oplink announced it's being acquired by Koch Industries for $445M, and will be managed by connector maker Molex (a Koch subsidiary).
- RBC thinks Koch's entrance into the slumping component industry could trigger further consolidation. "Current fab utilization rates remain low ... with optical component vendors unable to charge a premium for their innovation. Gross margins are currently weighed by competitive pressures with optical component makers willing to cut pricing to account for high fixed costs."
- The firm believes Finisar (FNSR +1%) could be a buyer, and JDS Uniphase (JDSU +1.5%) and Oclaro (OCLR +7.1%) sellers. JDS, set to spin off its component unit, is facing activist pressure to put the business on sale.
- Meanwhile, Ciena (CIEN +2.8%) announced this morning it's partnering with Avaya to offer an enterprise solution that pairs its optical networking and integrated optical/Ethernet gear with Avaya's Ethernet switches. Like peers, Ciena is trying to lower its dependence on pressured carrier capex budgets.
- Other gainers: AFOP +3.7%. NPTN +3.3%. ADTN +2.7%. INFN +1.9%.
Nov. 13, 2014, 3:28 PM
- Though Cisco is higher after beating FQ1 estimates and issuing soft FQ2 guidance, many telecom equipment and component/chip names are going in the opposite direction.
- At issue: Cisco reported a 10% Y/Y drop in service provider orders (-18% in the U.S.), while stating on its CC (transcript) it "saw dramatically reduced spend at several large U.S. service providers." The networking giant also suggested demand will remain weak during the next couple of quarters.
- The remarks came just a few days after AT&T set a 2015 capex budget of $18B (down from 2014's $21B), prompting a Monday selloff in equipment vendors and their suppliers.
- Today's decliners: ALU -3.8%. CIEN -2.8%. JDSU -3.1%. FNSR -3.7%. JNPR -1.7%. INFN -3.8%. RKUS -3.4%. ZHNE -3.2%. AMCC -4.1%. CALX -2.7%. CYNI -1.8%. ADTN -3.5%. ALLT -2.4%. FN -1.9%.
Nov. 10, 2014, 9:51 AM
- Declaring its Project VIP network expansion effort ahead of schedule, AT&T has set a 2015 capex budget of $18B, down from 2014's $21B and below a prior forecast of $20B. The figure is equal to only 13% of AT&T's 2015 revenue consensus.
- Telecom equipment and optical component makers, many of whom have already felt the effects of AT&T's subdued 2014 wireline capex, are off in early trading. CSCO -1.4%. ALU -4.8%. CIEN -6.6%. ADTN -7.8%. JNPR -2.5%. RKUS -2.1%. SONS -2.9%. FNSR -2.9%. JDSU -1.1%. RKUS -2.1%. XXIA -2%. FFIV -1.6%. ERIC -1.7%.
- Cisco delivers its FQ1 report on Wednesday. The networking giant reported an 11% Y/Y FQ4 drop in service provider orders, thanks to both weak demand and share loss.
Oct. 29, 2014, 4:24 PM
- JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ:JDSU) expects FQ2 revenue of $445M (+/- $12M) and EPS of $0.15 (+/- $0.03), below a consensus of $445.9M and $0.17 at the midpoints. Given the bad news seen by many peers and suppliers, investors aren't upset with the numbers.
- Consumer/commercial optical products (about to be spun off) saw revenue rise 6.3% Q/Q and 2.3% Y/Y in FQ1 to $209.3M. Network enablement (test equipment) -19.8% and -8.5% to $132.8M; service enablement (boosted by M&A) +10.6% and +79.9% to $48.2M; optical security/performance +1.6% and -17.5% to $43.3M.
- Gross margin was 49%, -100 bps Q/Q and +270 bps Y/Y. GAAP opex +9% Y/Y to $195.1M.
- FQ1 results, PR
Oct. 24, 2014, 12:32 PM
- Though Ericsson (ERIC -3%) beat Q3 estimates, the mobile infrastructure giant stated North American business activity "slowed down during the quarter as operators currently focus on cash flow optimization." It added North American spending patterns make it tough to judge near-term demand.
- Ericsson's North American sales fell 3% Y/Y to $1.93B, partly offsetting strong growth in China, India (+56%), the Middle East (+38%), and other emerging markets. Top-line figures were boosted some by M&A.
- AT&T and Verizon have been taking cautious approaches to capex, and Sprint (though investing heavily in 4G following the SoftBank deal) has been looking to cut costs under new CEO Marcelo Claure. The U.S. and Japan have been ahead of many other developed markets in ramping 4G coverage.
- Juniper (JNPR -6.3%) offered light Q4 guidance two weeks after delivering a Q3 warning, and reported its service provider sales were down 6% Y/Y due to soft demand from Asia-Pac, EMEA, and (especially) U.S. carriers.
- When the world's #2 carrier router vendor was asked on the CC (transcript) about 2015 sales, CEO Shaygan Keradpir admitted Juniper has poor near-term visibility, and that a rebound could take time. "Because we think these cycles typically take 2 to 4 quarters ... our planning assumption is that growth will return in the second half of 2015."
- Nokia and Infinera recently offered more positive numbers/commentary. Bulls have argued strong data/video traffic growth will lift capex. Bears have argued soft (if not negative) carrier revenue growth will continue pressuring spending.
- Decliners: ALU -1.6%. JDSU -2%. INFN -3.1%. CIEN -2.5%. CALX -2.5%. FNSR -1.8%. ADTN -1.5%. The Nasdaq is up 0.4%.
Oct. 10, 2014, 10:58 AM
- Telecom equipment makers and their chip/component suppliers are seeing more pain after Juniper (JNPR -7.5%) and Procera (PKT -32%) issued Q3 warnings (I, II), the latest bad earnings news for an industry that has seen plenty due to soft wireline capex. A few enterprise-focused networking vendors are also having a rough day.
- Cisco (CSCO -3.1%) has fallen below $23.50, and Alcatel-Lucent (ALU -4.3%) below $2.50. Other decliners: CIEN -4.7%. JDSU -4.6%. FFIV -5.3%. ANET -7%. RKUS -5.7%. SONS -4.4%. INFN -2.4%. CYNI -3.5%. AMCC -10%. PMCS -3.4%. NPTN -7.7%.
- Analysts are defending Juniper, arguing (in remarks that also have implications for peers) bad news has been priced in and that telecom capex is likely to improve in 2015. Bulls have argued Web/mobile traffic growth and SDN/NFV investments will ultimately boost capex, in spite of industry service revenue pressures.
- The Nasdaq as a whole is down 1.2%. Chip stocks are off sharply following Microchip's warning and prediction of an industry correction.
- Yesterday: Telecom equipment stocks slump as capex worries persist
Oct. 1, 2014, 11:10 AM
- Bloomberg reports activist investor Sandell Asset Management is pushing JDS Uniphase (JDSU +2.6%) to sell (through an auction) its optical component and commercial laser ops, which the company is set to spin off from its network test equipment/software, anti-counterfeiting, and 3D sensing/gesture recognition ops.
- Sandell also reportedly wants JDS to "extract tax benefits from operating losses estimated to potentially be worth $10 a share." The firm currently holds a 2% stake.
- JDS' optical component and laser businesses accounted for $196.9M of the company's June quarter revenue of $448.6M. Optical component sales only rose 1.4% Y/Y to $156.2M, but laser sales (boosted by strong industrial cutting/chip equipment demand) rose 44.3% to $40.7M.
Sep. 11, 2014, 12:45 PM
Sep. 11, 2014, 9:14 AM
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Viavi Solutions Incisa provider of network and service enablement solutions and optical products for telecommunications service providers, wireless operators, cable operators, network-equipment manufacturers and enterprises.
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