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There are 7 articles on this stock available only to PRO subscribers.
10% Distribution Vanguard Natural Resources Improved Its Distribution Coverage Ratio In Q3 2014
- VNR finally achieve a distribution coverage ratio of 1.0x in Q3 2014 after results of 0.83x and 0.90x in Q1 and Q2 2014 respectively.
- The really good news is that management is expecting a distribution coverage ratio of 1.2x+ for Q4 2014.
- In Q3 2014 71% of production was natural gas. VNR is also well hedged for both oil and natural gas.
- This should make VNR a strong stock in this time of oil price weakness.
The Recent Acquisitions Are Highly Beneficial For Vanguard Natural Resources
- The acquisition from the Bill Barrett Corporation will immediately increase the production volumes of the partnership.
- Mature and low-decline assets will provide stable revenues as well as cash flows.
- Growing production should result in better cash flows coverage and increased distributions.
- The common unit buyback plan should allow Vanguard Natural Resources to reduce the common unit base.
- Valuations in upstream MLP space have dropped significantly.
- Article goes over Vanguard's new guidance for 2015.
- Vanguard provides useful dry-gas diversification.
How Vanguard Natural Resources (Almost) Restored My Faith In Upstream MLPs
- $75 oil is not necessarily a disastrous scenario for upstream MLPs.
- Natural gas may be the new hope for near-term upstream MLP solvency.
- VNR has done more than most MLPs to provide information to investors.
Vanguard Natural Resources Puts Oil Price Decline Into Perspective
- Vanguard issued a press release showing DCF coverage at various crude oil and natural gas price scenarios.
- The VNR distribution is safe down to $70 oil and $3.50 gas.
- The VNR unit price jumped up on the news, and other upstream MLPs should be in a similar DCF vs. energy prices situation.
Vanguard Natural Resources: Don't Expect A Distribution Cut Anytime Soon
- VNR has announces plans to buyback up to $10 million worth of its common units.
- This program is likely a response to the recent 24% decline in unit price.
- VNR also provided an update to its distribution coverage sensitivity to various energy prices.
- At current prices, VNR yields roughly 11.50%.
Vanguard Natural Resources: Buy When Market Forces Snowball
- Over-leveraged and under-hedged producers deserve to be sold in response to commodity price uncertainty.
- VNR has prudent multi-year hedging and is gas weighted.
- VNR is at multi-year lows and is worth a look.
Oversold, 11.3% Dividend Vanguard Natural Resources Is A Bargain On This Dip
- VNR closed on the acquisitions of two new properties in Q3 2014. These both should be accretive to distributable cash flow.
- VNR reserves are 68% natural gas. Hence VNR is not overly exposed to falling oil prices; and natural gas prices seem likely to rise.
- VNR oil production is well hedged for both 2014 and 2015 as is its natural gas production.
- VNR grows mostly by buying mature, low decline rate assets that require little development. This should obviate the development financing problems of many development companies.
- VNR's recent decline of 18.04% is likely to continue as a result of further declines in earnings and increasing costs.
- P/E ratio of 336.50, BV per share of $17.18, and Benjamin Graham's valuation model at -$11.55 all demonstrate the overvaluation in the stock price.
- Strong technical indicators RSI and momentum display signs of reversal.
- Options chain open interest data evidently shows that open contracts in puts are rising more than calls, a strong bearish signal.
- We expect the price to reach between $18 and $20 per share in the medium term.
Update: Vanguard's Acquisition Of Assets From Bill Barrett Corporation Confirms Our Bull Case
- The partnership announced that it has completed the acquisition of assets from Bill Barrett Corporation.
- The acquisition will add to the production capacity of the partnership with low decline rate, and it will be immediately accretive to the cash flows.
- The completion of the transaction confirms our view that the addition of mature assets will bring stability to the cash flows of the partnership.
- Vanguard is to buy oil and gas assets in the Piceance Basin in Colorado for $525 million.
- These assets will add 67 MMcfe per day of mostly natural gas and NGL production, with only 5% being oil.
- The selling party is Bill Barrett Corporation.
- This transaction marks Vanguard’s third major purchase in 2014.
Update: Vanguard Natural Resource Offers Preferred Units
- VNR offers 4 million 7.75% Series C Preferred Units.
- The proceeds will be used to pay down debt related to a recent acquisition.
- I had predicted an equity offering for the company in a recent article.
- I remain bullish VNR due to its current high yield of 8.70%.
Vanguard Natural Resources: Is The Recent Weakness A Buying Opportunity?
- VNR has declined over 10% in recent weeks.
- This decline is mostly due to weak DCF metrics caused by lower prices for NGLs.
- However, thanks to recent events, VNR may see its DCF recover.
- The strong asset base of the company will allow it to further grow its revenues.
- Focus on mature assets will allow Vanguard to grow its revenues and cash flows at a stable rate.
- Recovering natural gas prices will result in better performance of the natural gas segment of the partnership as it remains the major segment for the partnership.
Vanguard Natural Resources: Shaping Up To Be A Lousy 2014
- Partnership reported disappointing distributable cash flow, largely due to drop in NGL prices.
- Full year DCF lowered to 0.9-1.0 times distributions.
- Green shoots: Fantastic acquisition, Pinedale-Jonah issues appear to be over.
Vanguard Natural Resources' Near-Term Success May Be Partly Due To Its Great Choice Of Partners
- VNR's recent Pinedale acquisition is as a non-operating partner of low cost specialist UPL. This could be a great profit and learning experience for VNR.
- VNR reported 44% production growth year over year for Q2 2014; but it had a drop in the distribution coverage ratio of 1.05x to 0.90x.
- VNR reported a 22% increase in EBITDA to $97.7 million year over year.
- Read further to learn further details, It is a story worth knowing.
Vanguard Natural Resources: The Lackluster Coverage Ratio Remains A Concern
- Vanguard Natural Resources posts its Q2 2014 results.
- DCF per unit came in weaker than expected, with the coverage ratio falling to 0.90x.
- Vanguard currently yields north of 8%.
Vanguard Natural Resources: Is The Recent Transaction Foreshadowing A Strong Quarter?
- Vanguard to buy natural gas focused assets in East Texas and North Louisiana for $278 million.
- This acquisition would mark the second major purchase so far in 2014.
- Due to its strong yield of 8% and monthly distributions, Vanguard is a good pick for income.
Mon, Nov. 3, 4:24 PM| Comment!
Wed, Oct. 15, 8:58 AM
- Vanguard Natural Resources (NASDAQ:VNR) announces a $10M common unit buyback program, citing overall market conditions and the current price of VNR units.
- VNR also says 70% of its estimated 2015 oil production is hedged at an average price of $91.95/bbl, and 31% of estimated 2016 production is hedged at an average $90.60.
- VNR has dropped ~20% so far this month.
Sat, Oct. 11, 8:25 AM
- Energy MLPs have been subject to indiscriminate selling this week as crude oil prices plunge, and while RBC Capital analyst John Ragozzino would not step into the sector in a big way right now, he thinks investors already in the group should ride out the storm - depending on their oil price exposure.
- Many energy MLPs, especially pipelines, are less correlated to commodity prices than other energy investments, but more MLPs with cyclical oil and gas price exposure are now part of the mix, and some investors have been selling without regard for the relative quality of specific stocks, Ragozzino says.
- The analyst believes there is minimal risk to reduction in 2015 distributions; with commodity price hedging, he thinks MLPs on average will feel some pain, but can handle oil prices as low as $80/bbl.
- Ragozzino says the MLPs most highly levered to a sustained drop in crude prices are MidCon Energy Partners (NASDAQ:MCEP), LRR Energy (NYSE:LRE) and Legacy Reserves (NASDAQ:LGCY); names least exposed include Atlas Resource Partners (NYSE:ARP), Vanguard Natural Resources (NASDAQ:VNR) and EV Energy Partners (NASDAQ:EVEP).
- ETFs: AMLP, AMJ, MLPL, MLPI, MLPA, MLPN, EMLP, MLPX, MLPS, AMU, ENFR, ATMP, MLPW, IMLP
Fri, Oct. 10, 10:55 AM
- In what's looking like at least a short-term capitulation move, investors are bailing out of upstream MLPs.
- Linn Energy (LINE -7.1%), BreitBurn Energy (BBEP -8.8%), EV Energy (EVEP -7.8%), Eagle Rock Energy (EROC -4.7%), QR Energy (QRE -8.1%), Legacy Reserves (LGCY -6.5%), Vanguard Natural Resources (VNR -10.3%).
- The JPMorgan Alerian MLP ETN (AMJ -2.9%) is down 12.4% over the last month.
- ETFs: AMLP, AMJ, MLPL, MLPI, MLPA, MLPN, EMLP, MLPX, MLPS, AMU, ENFR, ATMP, MLPW, IMLP, AMZA, OSMS
- Previously: Breitburn Energy shelves $400M high-yield bond offering
Wed, Oct. 1, 7:45 AM
- Vanguard Natural Resources (NASDAQ:VNR) completes its previously announced acquisition of Bill Barrett (NYSE:BBG) for an adjusted price of $508M, and says the deal will be immediately accretive to distributable cash flow at closing.
- The acquisition includes an average working interest of 78% in ~950 producing wells, 119 recompletion projects and 94 proved undeveloped vertical drilling locations.
- VNR's borrowing base is increased to $2B from $1.525B.
Tue, Sep. 16, 7:40 AM
- Vanguard Natural Resources (NASDAQ:VNR) agrees to acquire natural gas and liquids properties in the Piceance Basin in Colorado from Bill Barrett (NYSE:BBG) for $525M.
- The properties consist of ~12K net acres currently producing ~67M cfe/day, consisting of ~76% natural gas, 19% NGLs and 5% oil.
- VNR says the deal brings operations of 950 producing wells in a large, prolific natural gas basin with an established infrastructure in place and multiple pipeline outlets to market production.
- For BBG, the transaction is one of several that total $757M in divestitures of Powder River and Piceance Basin properties, including the acquisition of 7,856 net acres and 390 boe/day net production within the southern block of its operated Northeast Wattenberg area.
Wed, Aug. 6, 3:47 PM
- Vanguard Natural Resources (VNR -5.8%) is downgraded to Hold from Buy with a $29 price target, down from $34, at Wunderlich following below consensus Q2 earnings as low natural gas liquids realizations more than offset an 18% Q/Q rise in production.
- The firm believes lower NGL prices would continue to be a primary headwind for VNR, as less than 10% of its NGL production is hedged; poor liquidity in the NGL market and a backwardated curve would make it even more difficult for VNR to layer on additional NGL hedges, Wunderlich says.
- Shares also are downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James.
Mon, Aug. 4, 4:27 PM| Comment!
Mon, Aug. 4, 7:42 AM
- Vanguard Natural Resources (NASDAQ:VNR) agrees to acquire natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids assets in north Louisiana and east Texas from Hunt Oil for $278M.
- The properties consist of ~23K net acres currently producing ~17.5M cfe/day, two-thirds natural gas and one-third oil and NGLs.
- VNR says the acquisition will be immediately accretive to distributable cash flow at closing.
Sun, Aug. 3, 5:35 PM
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Tue, Apr. 29, 4:06 PM| 3 Comments
Wed, Feb. 26, 5:13 PM
Wed, Feb. 26, 12:10 AM| Comment!
Tue, Feb. 25, 5:35 PM| 4 Comments
Dec. 30, 2013, 8:12 AM
- Vanguard Natural Resources (VNR) agrees to acquire natural gas and oil properties in Wyoming's Pinedale and Jonah fields from an unnamed source for $581M.
- The properties consist of ~87K acres currently producing ~113M cfe/day (80% natural gas, 4% oil, 16% natural gas liquids); the deal adds ~80% to VNR's reserves and 55% to its daily production.
- Shares halted.
Nov. 21, 2013, 2:28 PM
- MLPs have recently underperformed the broader market, consistent with historical seasonal patterns of weakness in November on tax-related sales, and Baird says it would buy now (Briefing.com).
- The seasonal performance trend provides an attractive tactical entry point on the group, Baird believes, driving upgrades of Plains All American (PAA), Crestwood Midstream (CMLP), Breitburn Energy (BBEP) and Summit Midstream (SMLP) to Outperform.
- The firm also thinks Atlas Energy (ATLS), Atlas Resource (ARP), Legacy Reserves (LGCY) and Vanguard Natural (VNR) look relatively attractive and ripe for potential upgrades in the event of further weakness through Thanksgiving.
VNR vs. ETF Alternatives
Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC is a publicly traded limited liability company engaged in acquisition and development of mature, long-lived oil and natural gas properties in the United States.
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