Barely in the green for the year at the moment, the S&P 500 could slide 10% between now and October, says the technician, but there's a stealth bear market already happening in the Nasdaq, S&P Mid-Cap, and Russell 2000, and when support breaks (less than another 2%), those indices could see 20-25% declines.
The situation reminds him of 1994 when the Dow and S&P were in a trading range all year, but things were falling apart underneath the surface.
Following the washout into October, though, Acampora sees a "very, very strong Q4."
The following ETFs lowered their fees from 0.10% to 0.09%: The Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF (VBK), Mid-Cap ETF (VO), Mid-Cap Value ETF (VOE), Mid-Cap Growth (VOT), Large-Cap ETF (VV), Value ETF (VTV) and Growth ETF (VUG).
The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) will see a 20% decline in expense ratio to 0.08%.
The only fund to raise fees this round is the Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR), which will rise 20%, from 0.10% to 0.12%, to cover expenses incurred indirectly through investments in business development companies; which the fund no longer covers.
"I don't want to miss out." a Los Angeles real estate appraiser said in a note to his financial adviser last week after seeing one pundit up his DJIA forecast to 20K.
"Frankly, from 2009 until recently, I wanted to stay very conservative," says a technology sales manager. "I want to get more aggressive."
A Houston attorney and stock market skeptic was turned by her Schwab statement showing YTD gains of nearly 20%. She's planning on set aside more of her paycheck for stocks. "Sometimes you feel like it's too late. But it's probably never too late."
Investors poured another $12.4B into global equity funds in the week ended Wednesday, with BAML's Michael Hartnett saying another $8B-$9B of inflows over the next two weeks would trigger a contrarian sell signal in his firm's flow-based model.
This would coincide with BAML's Bull & Bear Index, which is getting a little to bullish for comfort. Fund manager cash levels were at 4.4% in October. A dip below 4% in November, says Hartnett, would trigger a bright red Sell alert.
Still coming to grips with the slightest hawkish twist to the FOMC statement yesterday afternoon, S&P 500 (SPY) futures are down 0.25% and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is off 0.45%. Facebook soared after a big earnings beat last night, then actually turned red during the earnings call, but is now higher by 3% in the premarket.
Europe opened to the downside, but is now mostly higher, and Asia was solidly lower overnight.
Treasury yields have regained some of their composure, the 10-year yield falling 3 basis points to 2.51%, after shooting higher yesterday afternoon post-statement. Gold's off 1% to $1,.335 per ounce.
"The small cap valuation story has also deteriorated a bit," writes Credit Suisse's Calvasina and Mahaffy, noting the relative ratio between small caps and mid caps has gotten back in line with the long-term average.
A bigger issue though, is absolute valuations - small and mid cap stocks have become overvalued relative to large caps which themselves are overvalued.
Bottom line: The entire equity market has a valuation problem and the valuation of small and mid caps is little better or worse.
Vanguard has officially transitioned its 4 standard U.S. market cap weighted ETFs from their previous MSCI indexes to CRSP indexes. The Vanguard Mega Cap ETF (MGC), Vanguard Large Cap ETF (VV), Vanguard Mid Cap ETF (VO) and Vanguard Small Cap ETF (VB) are among 22 funds Vanguard announced index switches for back in October, allowing the at-cost fund manager to lower fees across the board.
wigit5+ FollowFollowing- Unfollow|Send Message28 Jun
: I have a similar problem as the guy who wrote you, hard finding safe places with decent yields to sock cash away
Jun 28, 12:14 PM
Pogoh+ FollowFollowing- Unfollow|Send Message28 Jun
: precious metals are the hedge aren't they? There's no such thing as a low risk growth equity in today's market.
Jun 28, 1:07 PM
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