Sun, Aug. 7, 12:40 PM
- As fears mount about the impacts of Zika, Canaccord's Tony Dwyer is warning that the health crisis (compounded with Italian bank issues, a more hawkish Fed and energy price weakness) could morph into the Ebola scare that enveloped the market two years ago.
- The S&P 500 slipped 1.7% off its peak once the first U.S. Ebola case was reported in September 2014, and by the time the third American case was diagnosed, the market was already down 7%.
- "Obviously, no two situations are exactly alike, but this is pretty close," concluded Dwyer. "I'm not looking for anything like a 10% decline... but this could be the catalyst we've been looking for."
- Related tickers: SNY, INO, AEMD, XON, CEMI, BCRX, TMO, OTCQB:GOVX
Mon, Jun. 20, 10:53 AM
- Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (NYSEARCA:MGK) - $0.304. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.55%.
- Vanguard Mega Cap Value ETF (NYSEARCA:MGV) - $0.386. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.71%.
- Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth ETF (NYSEARCA:VIOG) - $0.232. 30-Day Sec yield of 0.93%.
- Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF (NYSEARCA:VIOV) - $0.266. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.45%.
- Vanguard S&P Mid-Cap 400 ETF (NYSEARCA:IVOO) - $0.235. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.48%.
- Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSEARCA:VOOG) - $0.339. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.49%.
- Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF (NYSEARCA:VOOV) - $0.484. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.47%.
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO) - $0.953. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.11%.
- Payable June 27; for shareholders of record June 23; ex-div June 21. 30 Day SEC yield as of 6/17/16.
Mon, Apr. 18, 8:23 AM
- 35 S&P 500 companies have reported earnings thus far, according to S&P CapIQ's most recent earnings report.
- 71% have reported earnings better than Street expectations. Collectively, the S&P 500 has reported a +8.2% EPS surprise.
- Of those companies that have announced earnings, 49% have shown double-digit or better Y/Y growth.
- Overall, EPS growth thus far is -8.3%.
- 95 companies report this week, including Intel, Yahoo and McDonald's.
- Thus far, consumer discretionary companies have outperformed (11.3% growth), and materials companies are lagging (-17.8%).
- ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, VOO, SDS, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, RSP, SPXS, SPYG, RWL, VFINX, EPS, IVW, SPYV, RPG, RPV, VOOG, VOOV, BXUB, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, FTA, SPUU, DHVW, LLSP, CAPX, RYARX
- Now read The Potential Benefits Of Stock Buybacks »
Fri, Apr. 8, 5:34 AM
- Nomura's Bob Janjuah is out with another bearish note. He says rally off of the February lows in risk assets "has been marginally stronger than anticipated."
- "My confidence on my negative views for global growth, on my belief in deflation over inflation and on the deeply negative outlook for earnings are now set even more in stone. The Fed has told me as much. In fact, I suspect that the Fed in private is far more concerned about these factors than it is currently willing to admit.
- "The Fed’s change in March was all about weakening the USD, which in turn is designed to help the U.S. economy fight off imported deflation, instead of which the Fed hopes to import inflation into its economy.
- "I am also even more convinced now that we are about 10 months through a multi-year bear market that likely won’t bottom until late 2017 or early 2018.
- "The critical longer-term question to my mind is whether the Fed is going to re-introduce QE and/or cut rates ultimately into negative territory... My view is still that the Fed does not actually do anything more than jaw-bone until or unless the S&P500 cash index is into the 1500s and the outlook for growth, employment and inflation get significantly worse. In terms of credibility, while I think the ECB and the BOJ are scraping the barrel, the Fed still has the ability to influence things, at least for now.
- "I also do not think that this current rally leg has much left in it – the power of Fedspeak without Fed action is already waning."
- ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, VOO, SDS, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, RSP, SPXS, SPYG, RWL, VFINX, EPS, IVW, SPYV, RPG, RPV, VOOG, VOOV, SPLX, SFLA, FTA, SPUU, DHVW, LLSP, CAPX, RYARX
- Now read Expecting 10% To 15% Correction In U.S. Equities »
Thu, Mar. 24, 6:06 AM
- UBS technicians Michael Riesner and Marc Muller, who called both of the most recent selloffs, are out with a note telling clients to take profits on the S&P 500:
- "Last week, we saw the suggested overshooting into expiration and the SPX reached the upper end of our projected late Q1/early Q2 target at 2050, which leaves the short-term picture in the U.S. unchanged as to what we highlighted last week. With the rally of the last few weeks and looking at our daily trend work, the SPX has reached its most overbought position since 2009!! Together with significant non-confirmations in our medium-term momentum work, and trading in the time window of our late Q1/early Q2 top projection, we see the market vulnerable for a significant reversal this week, which we would see as the beginning of a tactical top building process and subsequent correction into deeper Q2. We reiterate our last week’s comment and would not chase the market on current elevated levels.
- "After being aggressively oversold, we saw the February 11th risk bottom as the basis for a multi-week bear market rally in global equities into the late March/early April timeframe with a price target 2000/2050 in the SPX before starting a new significant tactical down leg into deeper summer. Last week, we said that a final overshooting into expiration is still likely, but particularly in the week after triple witching we very often see important tactical trend reversals in the market.
- "The February/March rebound was nearly vertical, which is not sustainable. With last week’s extension our daily trend work has reached its most overbought position since 2009. Together with our weekly momentum reaching overbought extremes we have a relatively high likelihood of seeing the market move into an important medium-term top followed by a significant setback. Even if our big picture market view (U.S. and global equity markets are in a cyclical bear market that we expect to continue into Q1 2017) proves to be too bearish, with such an indicator setup we should see the US market minimum ahead of a multi-week consolidation pattern, where we should see higher volatility and therefore a significant pullback."
- Now read 10 Reasons Why Stocks Bounced Back So Hard »
- ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, UPRO, SPXU, SPXL, RSP, SPXS, RWL, EPS, SPYG, IVW, VFINX, RPG, RPV, SPYV, VOOG, VOOV, SPLX, SFLA, FTA, SPUU, DHVW, LLSP, CAPX, RYARX
Fri, Mar. 18, 7:44 AM
Dec. 16, 2015, 10:42 AM
Dec. 8, 2015, 12:31 PM
- The bulk of Bank of America Merrill Lynch's 2016 global outlook is a near-perfect extrapolation of current trends and themes - modest economic growth, a slow rise in U.S. rates diverging from other global central banks, commodities and credit under pressure, continued recovery in U.S. housing.
- One standout line does interest however, and that's the team's expectation for value to make a comeback versus growth.
- The research is fairly ample that value trumps growth, but it hasn't worked out that way for years. As measured by the Vanguard Value ETF (NYSEARCA:VTV) and the Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSEARCA:VUG), growth has trumped value by 690 basis points this year, and more than 2K basis points over the last five years.
- It brings to mind another long period of growth beating value - the mid-to-late 1990s (how'd that one work out?).
- ETFs: IVE, VUG, IWF, VTV, SKF, IWD, SPYG, IVW, RPV, RPG, MGK, SCHG, SPYV, SCHV, VOOG, VOOV, PWV, MGV, IWY, JKE, FTA, PWB, EZY, VONG, VONV, FNDX, FBG, DVP, IWX, FTC, PXLG, JKF, IELG, PXLV, SYG, FLGE, GVT, FBGX, RWG, SYV, FIBG, DHVW, CAPX
Oct. 1, 2015, 10:54 AM
- November tends to be the busiest month for buybacks, according to Goldman Sachs, with 13% of annual repurchase spending occurring then. Not surprisingly, Q4 tends to be the busiest quarter for buybacks, with 30% of them coming then.
- Separate data from Chris Prybal shows a spike in short interest in S&P 500 stocks of late, with the level topping $8B for the first time since 2009.
- Previously: Goldman cuts S&P 500 forecasts (Sept. 29)
- ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, UPRO, SPXU, SPXL, RSP, SPXS, RWL, EPS, SPYG, IVW, VFINX, RPV, RPG, SPYV, VOOG, VOOV, BXUB, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, FTA, SPUU, LLSP, DHVW, RYARX, CAPX
Sep. 18, 2015, 7:48 AM
Jul. 12, 2015, 6:23 AM
- As companies in the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 begin to release second quarter results, high valuations could threaten to keep the U.S. stock market spinning in place.
- At 16.5x forward estimates, the S&P 500, up less than 2% for the year to date through Friday, is about 10% more expensive than its historic average of 15, according to Thomson Reuters estimates.
- While still well below the 24.5 ratio at the height of the dot-com era bubble, the price to earnings multiple recently hit its highest level since 2004.
- ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, UPRO, SPXU, SPXL, RSP, RWL, EPS, SPYG, IVW, VFINX, RPV, RPG, SPYV, VOOG, VOOV, BXUB, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, FTA, SPUU, CAPX, RYARX, DHVW
Jun. 19, 2015, 6:43 AM
Mar. 20, 2015, 11:28 AM
Jan. 31, 2015, 8:25 AM
- CEOs are far more pessimistic about corporate earnings than any time since the financial crisis, according to research from Bespoke.
- The percentage of companies lowering earnings forecasts during this reporting cycle has led those with upward revisions by 8.6 percentage points, the widest margin since Q4 2008, according to data compiled by the firm.
- The consumer staples group has seen the highest percentage of companies lowering guidance at 37.5%, while 17%-20% of health care and consumer discretionary companies have lowered; surprisingly, energy is among the sectors that are cutting guidance the least.
- Analysts now expect per-share earnings from S&P 500 companies to fall 2.1% in Q1 and slip another 1.1% in Q2, Bloomberg calculates; if correct, it would be the first back-to-back profit contractions since 2009.
- ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, RSP, RWL, EPS, SPYG, IVW, RPG, RPV, SPYV, VOOG, VOOV, SPLX
Dec. 17, 2014, 12:19 PM
Oct. 15, 2014, 8:41 AM
- The 10-year Treasury yield is quickly heading towards a "1" handle, off nine basis points this morning to just 2.11% after a trio of weak economic reports, led by core retail sales falling 0.2% in September vs. an expected gain of 0.3%.
- There was also a big slump in the Empire State survey, and core PPI came in flat vs. an expected gain of 0.1%.
- Down moderately earlier, S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) futures are now lower by 1.1%.
- TLT +1%, TBT -2% premarket
- Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, PST, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, TYO, DTYS, DLBS, VGLT, UST, UBT, TLO, VGIT, TBX, GSY, TENZ, SCHR, DTYL, TYD, LBND, ITE, TYBS, DLBL, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVL, DFVS, TYNS
- S&P 500 ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, RSP, RWL, EPS, SPYG, IVW, RPG, RPV, SPYV, VOOG, BXUB, VOOV, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, FTA, SPUU
Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF seeks to track the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of large-capitalization growth stocks.
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