Vanguard Large Cap ETF
 (VV)

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  • Mon, Feb. 1, 12:45 PM
    • We've moved into Phase 4 of the economic cycle, says Citigroup - that point when overextended stocks collapse in reaction to a contraction in credit. "This is the classic bear market, when equity and credit prices fall together," says Citi's Robert Buckland.
    • The good news is eventually the sun comes back up. In Citi's Phase 1 ( to follow Phase 4), interest rates have fallen, money is cheap, and stocks sport attractive valuations.
    • ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS, USWD, GSLC, USSD
    | Mon, Feb. 1, 12:45 PM | 1 Comment
  • Tue, Jan. 19, 12:26 PM
    • Up nearly 1% early in the session, the major averages have pulled back, with the S&P 500 now flat, and the Nasdaq inching into the red.
    • Alongside that pullback is crude oil, which topped $30 per barrel earlier, but is currently off 1.1% on the day to $29.08 per barrel.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield had popped four basis points higher on the bounce, but it too has returned to unchanged on the session at 2.04%.
    • ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS, USWD, GSLC, USSD
    | Tue, Jan. 19, 12:26 PM | 20 Comments
  • Fri, Jan. 15, 3:44 PM
    • The day isn't over yet, but barring a major late rally, the S&P 500 by day's end is going to have posted its worst ten-day start to the year ever, according to Bespoke.
    • The 8% decline stands against now second-place 2009, when the average slid 6.59% to start the year.
    • The good news is there doesn't seem to be a ton of predictive power in these ugly starts. Checking the previous worst 14 beginnings to the year, stocks were as likely as not to post gains for the rest of January and for the full year. In 2009, the S&P 500 ended the year higher by 32%.
    • ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS, USWD, GSLC, USSD
    | Fri, Jan. 15, 3:44 PM | 36 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 13, 5:06 AM
    • The SocGen strategist says the West is about to be hit by a wave of deflation from emerging market economies and that central banks were unaware of the disaster about to hit them.
    • “I realize most people think I am talking utter garbage but I’m used to that. And maybe I am! But the truth will come out in the next recession which may be pretty close now,” Edwards says.
    • “The previous bear market low was in March 2009 when the S&P reached 666. I think we’ll go below that within this bear market.
    • “Developments in the global economy will push the U.S. back into recession. The financial crisis will reawaken. It will be every bit as bad as in 2008-09 and it will turn very ugly indeed.
    • “Emerging market currencies are still in freefall. The U.S. corporate sector is being crushed by the appreciation of the dollar.
    • He says the U.S. economy is in far worse shape than the Fed realizes: “We have seen massive credit expansion in the U.S. This is not for real economic activity; it is borrowing to finance share buybacks.”
    • Edwards attacked the “incredible conceit” of central bankers, who had failed to learn the lessons of the housing bubble that led to the financial crisis and slump of 2008-09. “They didn’t understand the system then and they don’t understand how they are screwing up again. Deflation is upon us and the central banks can’t see it.”
    • Note: Edwards's "Ice Age" thesis goes back to Aug. 2008, and was reiterated in Dec. 2009, Sept. 2011, and May 2012.
    • ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, UPRO, PSQ, SPXU, TQQQ, SPXL, SPLV, RSP, SPXS, QID, PRF, SQQQ, QLD, CRF, DOG, DXD, RWL, UDOW, EPS, SDOW, VV, USA, SCHX, DDM, VFINX, IWB, OEF, ZF, SPHB, MGC, SPHQ, BXUB, QQEW, FEX, QQQE, VONE, XLG, JKD, EEH, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, EQL, QQXT, ROLA, IWL, SPUU, ONEK, EQWL, EWRI, LGLV, ERW, EQAL, FWDD, FMK, ZLRG
    | Wed, Jan. 13, 5:06 AM | 36 Comments
  • Mon, Jan. 11, 4:38 AM
    | Mon, Jan. 11, 4:38 AM | 16 Comments
  • Tue, Jan. 5, 11:09 AM
    • Go where central banks are still accommodative, says Citi equity strategist Robert Buckland, noting decent EPS momentum and central bank support in Europe and Japan, and flagging EPS momentum and monetary tightening in the U.S.
    • "After 6 consecutive years of outperformance, we cut the U.S. to Underweight."
    • Joining the U.S. as Underweight are Australia and the U.K.
    • ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS, USWD, GSLC, USSD
    | Tue, Jan. 5, 11:09 AM | 2 Comments
  • Dec. 17, 2015, 12:06 PM
    • Keep in mind, says BAML chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett, that wider credit spreads combined with higher benchmark rates means less corporate bond issuance, which means less cash for companies to buy back their stock (you thought corporations bought back stock with cash sitting in the bank!).
    • "This marks an important turning point for the stock market," says Hartnett, noting wider credit spreads and undperformance of the stock-buyback theme have been correlated over the past few months. "We would thus take profits in any short-term bounce in stocks.”
    • ETFs: PKW, SYLD, SPYB, CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS, USWD, GSLC, USSD
    | Dec. 17, 2015, 12:06 PM | 1 Comment
  • Dec. 16, 2015, 10:40 AM
    • Vanguard Large-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA:VV) announces quarterly distribution of $0.507.
    • 30-Day Sec yield of 1.96% (as of 12/15/2015).
    • Payable Dec. 23; for shareholders of record Dec. 21; ex-div Dec. 17.
    | Dec. 16, 2015, 10:40 AM
  • Dec. 2, 2015, 11:47 AM
    • Longtime U.S. stock bull Andrew Garthwaite cuts his weighting in equities to small overweight - his most bearish strategic stance since 2008. The tweak comes just a couple of weeks after his team reiterated its call for S&P 2,200 by mid-2016 (vs. 2,096 at the moment). They now see just 2,150 by the end of next year.
    • Reasons? The slowdown in China and a hawkish Fed (though neither are new news). Historically, says Garthwaite, equities have pulled back an average 7% after the first Fed rate hike, though that has not marked the end of the bull market - six months after the first hike, stocks on average are higher by 2.2%.
    • ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS, USWD, GSLC, USSD
    | Dec. 2, 2015, 11:47 AM
  • Nov. 30, 2015, 1:11 PM
    • Selling by corporate insiders is nearing $8B in November, according to TrimTabs, more than the amounts sold in September ($2B) and October ($3.8B) combined.
    • The amount of individual selling is especially striking considering the pace with which CFOs are buying back stock with company money - $3.9B per day in Q3.
    • While insider sales occur for any number of reasons, and often pick up late in the year, TrimTabs notes November's volume of sales was the fastest since May 2011 - in the three months following, the S&P 500 fell 9.4%.
    • ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS, USWD, GSLC, USSD
    | Nov. 30, 2015, 1:11 PM | 2 Comments
  • Nov. 24, 2015, 2:35 PM
    • From the intraday low on Aug. 24, the fifty stocks in the S&P 500 with the largest short interest are up just an average of 1%, according to Bespoke Investment Group. That's against an average gain of 8% for the other 450 members of that index.
    • This bucks the trend of heavily-shorted names leading broader rallies, says the group.
    • Also usually leading are smaller-cap names, but not this time - the 50 largest S&P 500 stocks are up an average of 11% vs. just 3.9% for the other 450.
    • In divergence number three (although this could be a corollary to the first one), the most beaten down names usually bounce the most out of a correction, but the worst performers in the market selloff are continuing to lag in the rally.
    • ETFs: CRF, VUG, VTV, VV, USA, SCHX, SCHG, SCHV, ZF, PWV, FEX, JKD, EEH, IWY, JKE, EQL, PWB, EZY, IWL, IWX, FTC, JKF, IELG, SYG, ERW, GVT, FWDD, RWG, ZLRG, SYE, SYV, SBUS, GSLC, USSD, USWD
    | Nov. 24, 2015, 2:35 PM
  • Nov. 18, 2015, 2:27 PM
    • The minutes more or less promise a rate hike next month, and stocks are adding to session gains, with all major averages now higher by 1% or more.
    • Where there's not a lot of movement is in interest rates, commodities, and the dollar - all pretty much as they were prior to the minutes.
    • Given the near-certainty of higher interest rates next month, 30-day Fed Funds futures are leaving a little meat on the bone for speculators, pricing in only about a 65% chance of a 25 basis point move. The Dec. 2016 futures have priced in a Fed Funds rate about 67 basis points higher than it stands today.
    • ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS, USWD, GSLC, USSD
    | Nov. 18, 2015, 2:27 PM | 15 Comments
  • Nov. 10, 2015, 10:52 AM
    • Net debt as a percent of EBITDA has returned to levels from just before the financial crisis, says Goldman, and the gauge is even more stretched when excluding energy companies - easily outpacing any read since at least 2005.
    • Low interest rates and a welcoming corporate bond market (in search of yield), of course, have encouraged managements to raise debt to fund buybacks and M&A.
    • While debt levels have more than doubled their pre-crisis amounts, those low rates mean interest expense - while on the rise - is up far more modestly.
    • And what's on the other side of the balance sheet from the surging debt? Goldman estimates nearly $1T of goodwill has been added since 2008.
    • "We view persistently high levels of goodwill when accompanied by consistently low sector-relative financial returns as an indicator that the company has not used its asset base as productively as expected, which can ultimately dampen stock returns," says the team.
    • ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS, USWD, GSLC, USSD
    | Nov. 10, 2015, 10:52 AM | 1 Comment
  • Oct. 26, 2015, 3:11 PM
    • Crispin Odey's $1.4B Odey European Fund had cut its year-to-date losses to nearly zero after a big September, but this month's rally has cost the fund 17% of its value in just 16 days.
    • He remains unshaken, however, that China is in deeper trouble than commonly thought, and that central bankers can't bail markets out this time.
    • The bubbling up of major scams of late is more evidence of trouble, Odey tells his investors, as these sorts of things only come to light in bear markets.
    • "Bad things happen in bear markets. The Volkswagen saga, which has only just begun in terms of repercussions, only happened as car sales globally have peaked. The Petrobras scandal could only come to light once the oil price had halved. The Valeant pricing and Enron-like behaviour could only happen in a world which is suddenly looking for price gougers."
    • With rising recession risks in the West, how is it that the stock market is hitting all-time highs, he asks. "History tends to be not very generous in this regard ... It's amazing that nobody else in on the same page."
    • ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS, USWD, GSLC, USSD
    | Oct. 26, 2015, 3:11 PM | 1 Comment
  • Oct. 18, 2015, 11:37 AM
    | Oct. 18, 2015, 11:37 AM
  • Oct. 9, 2015, 11:13 AM
    • While most point to surging margin debt as a sign of trouble, Leuthold's Doug Ramsey is concerned it's falling too fast.
    • He turned bearish this summer when margin debt fell more than 6% in July and August. Its drop below a seven-month moving average told Ramsey demand for stocks was quickly sliding.
    • "Margin debt contracting is a sign of loss of investor confidence and it’s confirmation of a lot of other evidence we have that we’ve entered a cyclical bear market,” he says. “We got a lot of traditional warning signs leading up to the high in terms of market action, and deteriorating breadth and margin debt is important to the supply-demand analysis.”
    • ETFs: CRF, VUG, VV, USA, SCHX, SCHG, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, IWY, JKE, EQL, PWB, IWL, FTC, ERW, SYG, FWDD, RWG, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS, GSLC
    | Oct. 9, 2015, 11:13 AM | 6 Comments
VV Description
"Vanguard Large-Cap ETF seeks to track the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of large-capitalization stocks. Investment approach: Seeks to track the performance of the CRSP US Large Cap Index. Predominantly large U.S. companies, diversified across growth and value styles. Passively managed, full-replication approach. Fund remains fully invested. Low expenses minimize net tracking error."
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