Thu, Jan. 28, 9:21 AM
- The chatter began earlier this week of some sort of looming agreement between Russia and OPEC for production cuts, and it's getting new life this morning.
- WTi crude is now higher by 4.6% to $33.75 per barrel, and is dragging the XLE up 3.3%, and the major averages, with S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) and Dow (NYSEARCA:DIA) futures higher by nearly 1% after being about flat not long ago.
- USO +7.2% premarket
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, OLEM
Wed, Jan. 27, 11:47 AM
- Sharply lower all day, oil has turned higher by $0.68 per barrel to $32.10 despite bearish inventory data from the EIA. Alongside the big surge in inventories, however, the EIA says U.S. production edged lower by 14K to 9.22M barrels per day. The peak in output was last April at 9.7M. USO +4%
- It's not much, but it's the trend that matters, says one industry watcher.
- The big move in oil has the XLE higher by 1.9%, and the S&P 500 (SPY +0.5%) and DJIA (DIA +0.3%) both in the green from earlier near 1% losses. The Nasdaq (QQQ -0.5%) is rallying too, but still in the red as Apple tumbles 5%.
Mon, Jan. 25, 3:34 PM
- Holding modest losses for most of the session, the major averages are now off more than 1% as oil (USO -6.8%) gives back a big chunk of its gains from late last week. S&P 500 (SPY -1.4%), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ -1.3%).
- Energy (XLE -3.9%) is naturally leading today's selling, but the financials (XLF -1.9%) are struggling as well. This just in: the XLF's 12.4% loss YTD is greater than the XLE (down 11.2%).
- Previously: Pain continues in financial names (Jan. 25)
Mon, Jan. 25, 10:48 AM
- Energy demand will climb 25% worldwide by 2040, with crude oil demand growing by 20% to 112M bbl/day and retaining its dominant position among energy sources, Exxon Mobil (XOM -1.1%) says in its annual long-term energy outlook.
- Because of efforts to reduce greenhouse gases and efficiency gains, XOM sees energy-related carbon dioxide emissions peaking around 2030 before starting to drop, while emissions in developed countries are seen falling by ~20% from 2014 to 2040.
- XOM sees coal use for power generation declining to ~30% of the world's electricity in 2040, from 40% in 2014, while natural gas will pull even with coal, and wind and solar will provide more than 10%, up from ~4%.
- ETFs: XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, IYE, IXC, FENY, IPW, FIF, PXJ, RYE, FXN, GNAT, SZC, DDG, FILL
Fri, Jan. 22, 12:59 PM
- The Obama administration proposes new rules requiring cuts in methane emissions from oil and gas drilling on federal lands, and would force companies to use equipment to capture leaked gas and raise the costs they pay for extracting fuel on government property.
- The draft regulation proposed by the Interior Department is aimed at helping to meet a goal of cutting the energy industry’s emissions of methane by as much as 45% from 2012 levels over the next decade.
- The rules, set to be finalized later this year after a public comment period, would establish several new standards on companies drilling on public lands, including the first-ever federal limits on flaring.
- ETFs: XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DUG, BGR, IYE, IEO, FENY, PXE, FIF, PXJ, NDP, RYE, FXN, DDG
Fri, Jan. 22, 8:28 AM
- Moody's places 120 oil and gas companies on review for a downgrade, in a sweeping global review that includes all major regions and ranges from the world's top global majors such as Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B), Total (NYSE:TOT) and BP to 69 U.S. E&P and services firms.
- Warning of "a substantial risk that prices may recover much more slowly over the medium term than many companies expect, as well as a risk that prices might fall further," Moody's now sees both WTI and Brent crude averaging $33/bbl this year, a $7 cut for WTI and a $10 reduction for Brent from its previous forecast.
- The ratings firm also places 55 mining companies on review for downgrade as they battle a slump in commodity prices.
- Among the companies placed on review are Alcoa (NYSE:AA), Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB), Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK), Transocean (NYSE:RIG), Statoil (NYSE:STO), Vale (NYSE:VALE), Goldcorp (NYSE:GG), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) and Diamond Offshore (NYSE:DO).
- ETFs: XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DUG, BGR, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, FENY, PXE, PXI, FIF, PXJ, NDP, RYE, FXN, DDG
Thu, Jan. 21, 7:27 PM
- An attempt to delay enforcement of Pres. Obama's Clean Power Plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions until legal challenges are resolved is denied by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit.
- The court order is an early victory for the EPA in what is likely to be a multiyear legal battle over a cornerstone of Pres. Obama's climate plan, which more than two dozen states and various utility companies, coal producers and business groups opposed, arguing they faced immediate burdens from complying with the regulation, which the administration issued in August.
- The regulation requires a 32% cut in power-plant carbon emissions by 2030 based on emissions levels of 2005.
- ETFs: XLE, XLU, VDE, ERX, OIH, UTG, IDU, VPU, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, IYE, GUT, BUI, FENY, FIF, PXJ, RYE, FUTY, RYU, UPW, FXN, FXU, DDG, SDP, FUGAX
Thu, Jan. 21, 3:49 PM
- Crude oil futures settled more than 4% higher on the back of perceived oversold conditions, despite a higher than expected inventory build; March WTI jumped 4.2% to settle at $29.53/bbl after trading as high as $30.25, while Brent surged 4.9% to $29.25.
- Crude prices were supported by the inventory increase in this morning's EIA report, which was less than the API’s report released on Wednesday, says Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group; also, reports of Libyan oil tanks on fire eased speculation that Libya would be exporting more oil soon.
- Also supportive for prices, oil production in the lower 48 states edged lower for the first time in seven weeks, “which is at least ‘less bearish’ for the extremely oversupplied global oil market,” says Tyler Richey of The 7:00’s Report.
- The energy sector is bouncing after hitting a multiyear low yesterday: XOM +1.4%, CVX +2.7%, RDS.A +3.8%, BP +3.7%, TOT +2.3%, STO +4.5%, COP +6.2%, MRO +12.2%, APC +10.3%, OXY +2.1%, EOG +6.4%, PXD +2.7%, APA +8.2%, HES +7%, KMI +15.5%, EPD +3.3%, ETP +6.8%.
- ETFs: UNG, USO, OIL, XLE, UGAZ, UCO, DGAZ, UWTI, VDE, ERX, OIH, SCO, XOP, BNO, BOIL, GAZ, DBO, DWTI, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DTO, DUG, KOLD, BGR, USL, XES, IYE, IEO, UNL, IEZ, DNO, FENY, PXE, PXI, FIF, PXJ, OLO, SZO, NDP, RYE, DCNG, FXN, OLEM, DDG
Wed, Jan. 20, 12:55 PM
- WTI crude has broken out to new session lows, down 7.3% to $26.39 per barrel. That's the February contract. The lead contract is now March, and it's down 6.3% to $27.71. USO -5.8%
- Alongside that, the energy sector (XLE -5.1%) is leading the S&P 500's 3.5% decline, and the major junk bond ETFs are lower by more than 2% even as the 10-year Treasury is down 11 basis points to 1.94%.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, OLEM
Fri, Jan. 15, 3:20 PM
- Nymex crude oil settled -5.7% at $29.42/bbl, its lowest level since November 2003, with concerns that Iran will soon add to the world's glut of crude supplies added to fears about an economic slowdown in China.
- When a decade of trade and banking sanctions against Iran end, perhaps as soon as Monday, the country could lift exports by 500K bbl/day and gradually raise shipments by the same amount again; Iran reportedly has 22 VLCCs floating off its coast, with 13 fully or almost fully loaded.
- Among major energy companies today: XOM -1.8%, CVX -2.2%, RDS.A -5%, BP -5.2%, COP -4.9%, TOT -3.7%, PBR -8.6%, E -4.5%, TOT -3.7%, STO -2.5%, MRO -10.2%, HES -3.6%, OXY -1.8%, DVN -5.8%, APA -4.9%, EOG -3.8%, APC -7.9%, PXD -2.6%, CXO -4.9%.
- ETFs: UNG, USO, OIL, XLE, UGAZ, UCO, DGAZ, UWTI, VDE, ERX, OIH, SCO, XOP, BNO, BOIL, GAZ, DBO, DWTI, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DTO, DUG, KOLD, BGR, USL, XES, IYE, IEO, UNL, IEZ, DNO, FENY, PXE, PXI, PXJ, FIF, DBE, OLO, SZO, NDP, RYE, DCNG, RJN, FXN, OLEM, DDG
Thu, Jan. 14, 7:11 PM
- Oil companies have delayed $380B in new investment on 68 major upstream projects since the oil downturn began a year and a half ago, according to a new result from industry consultant Wood Mackenzie.
- In H2 of 2015, 22 major project decisions were delayed as crude oil fell below $40/bbl, according to the report.
- All told, the projects account for ~27B boe and ~2.9M bbl/day of production, with deepwater projects totaling more than half of the deferrals.
- The average breakeven cost for the delayed new projects was $62/boe; given that Brent and U.S. benchmark prices in recent days have dropped to roughly half that number, clearly there is little incentive to invest in new production.
- "With oil prices dipping to new lows at the start of 2016 and capital allocation tightening, the list will continue to grow,” the report says.
- ETFs: XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DUG, BGR, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, FENY, PXE, FIF, PXJ, NDP, RYE, FXN, DDG
Thu, Jan. 14, 3:26 PM
- Energy stocks are broadly higher as U.S. crude oil bounces off $30/bbl to end pit trading at $31.22, +2.6%; the SPDR Energy ETF (XLE +5.1%) soars 5%, with 36 of its 40 equity components trading higher, after closing yesterday at its lowest level since September 2010.
- Exxon Mobil (XOM +5.5%) and Chevron (CVX +5.9%) are the Dow's top two gainers; and pipeline companies sport strong showings with Kinder Morgan (KMI +8.2%), Plains All American Pipeline (PAA +11.7%) and Williams Cos. (WMB +27.4%) among the biggest winners.
- Among other major energy movers: ETE +22.6%, BP +7.6%, MRO +7.5%, OXY +7.1%, PBR +7%, COP +7%, RDS.A +6.7%, SE +6.1%, PSX +6.1%, ETP +6.1%, EPD +5.3%, APA +5%, E +4.6%, HES +4.1%, MPC +4.1%.
- Amid overwhelmingly negative sentiment, a few analysts are venturing out to say the worst may be over or nearly so: Deutsche Bank’s Torsten Slok thinks "we now have the worst behind us in terms of the negative impact of falling oil prices on the economy," and Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg argues that the oil selloff is getting “long in the tooth.”
- ETFs: USO, OIL, XLE, UCO, UWTI, VDE, ERX, OIH, SCO, XOP, BNO, DBO, DWTI, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DTO, DUG, BGR, USL, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DNO, FENY, PXE, PXI, PXJ, FIF, OLO, SZO, NDP, RYE, FXN, OLEM, DDG
Wed, Jan. 13, 2:56 PM
- The day's declines have picked up a good bit of steam, with all of the major averages sitting at session lows a bit more than an hour before the close.
- The Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) and Small-caps (NYSEARCA:IWM) are leading the way with declines of more than 3%, while the Dow (NYSEARCA:DIA) and S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) are off just over 2%.
- Leading sectors on the downside: Energy (XLE -2.5%) and Financials (XLF -2.4%). What's working? Utilities (XLU), barely.
- In the green for most of the session, oil is now modestly lower and threatening to head below $30 per barrel.
- Money is pouring into fixed income, with the 10-year Treasury yield off another five basis points today to 2.05%. It hasn't been below 2% since early October. TLT +1%, TBT -2%
Tue, Jan. 12, 10:53 PM
- Barclays becomes the latest bank to slash its outlook for crude oil prices, and is now clearly the most pessimistic bank when it comes to the prognosis for oil.
- The bank now expects both Brent and WTI crude to average $37/bbl in 2016, down from a previous forecast of $60 and $56, respectively, citing the “complete breakdown of OPEC cohesion” and U.S. shale producers that have proved to be “resilient beyond expectations."
- BofA Merrill Lynch is the runnerup for most pessimistic, forecasting WTI to average $45/bbl this year; Morgan Stanley yesterday argued that scenarios with crude as low as $20/bbl are possible, but that is not its 2016 base forecast, as the bank expects crude to average $47.50 this year.
- U.S. crude slipped below $30/bbl earlier today, and U.S. crude futures traded below $50 through 2021; the U.S. Energy Information Administration now predicts that already heavily swollen global oil stockpiles will continue to rise until H2 2017.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, XLE, UCO, UWTI, VDE, ERX, OIH, SCO, XOP, BNO, DBO, DWTI, ERY, DIG, DTO, DUG, BGR, USL, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DNO, FENY, PXE, PXJ, FIF, OLO, SZO, NDP, RYE, FXN, OLEM, DDG
Mon, Jan. 11, 11:13 AM| Mon, Jan. 11, 11:13 AM | 94 Comments
Mon, Jan. 11, 4:38 AM
- JPM strategists note that earnings expectations have been managed aggressively going into earnings season. Four months ago, the "hurdle rate" for S&P 500 stocks was +5% Y/Y; now it's -4% Y/Y. “If this were to materialize, it would be the weakest quarter for EPS delivery so far in the upcycle.”
- Energy sector earnings consensus signals only single-digit losses, while oil prices are 36% below the 21015 average.
- Sees euro-zone earnings outperforming U.S. for second year running.
- Overall, firm says risk/reward for stocks is poor. Use bounces as selling opportunities.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, SH, XLE, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, VDE, UPRO, PSQ, SPXU, ERX, TQQQ, OIH, SPXL, SPLV, XOP, RSP, SPXS, QID, PRF, SQQQ, ERY, FCG, QLD, CRF, DOG, DIG, GASL, DXD, PBW, RWL, UDOW, EPS, DUG, SDOW, BGR, XES, IYE, VV, USA, IEO, SCHX, DDM, VFINX, IEZ, QCLN, FENY, PXE, IWB, OEF, PXI, ZF, FIF, PXJ, SPHB, MGC, SPHQ, PSCE, BXUB, NDP, RYE, QQEW, FEX, QQQE, VONE, XLG, JKD, FXN, EEH, SPLX, PUW, SFLA, BXUC, EQL, QQXT, DDG, ROLA, IWL, SPUU, ONEK, HECO, EQWL, EWRI, LGLV, ERW, FWDD, EQAL, ZLRG, FMK, CFA, SYE, CFO, LLSP, UDPIX, SBUS, USWD, USSD, DRIP, GUSH, OTPIX, QUS, RYARX, GSLC
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