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Feb. 18, 2015, 2:49 PM
- The financial sector had begun to turn around a dismal start to the year as February brought forth a string of hawkish Fed heads suggesting a June rate hike, but the XLF is lower by 0.8% after just-released FOMC minutes suggest markets and the hawks are getting ahead of themselves. KBE -1.7%, KRE -2%
- The TBTFs: BofA (BAC -2.2%), JPMorgan (JPM -1.4%), Wells Fargo (WFC -1.6%), Ciitgroup (C -0.8%)
- The regionals: Regions Financial (RF -1.6%), KeyCorp (KEY -1.6%), PNC Financial (PNC -1.3%), BB&T (BBT -1.5%), Fifth Third (FITB -1.6%), SunTrust (STI -1.7%), First Niagara (FNFG -2.1%), M&T (MTB -1.9%), U.S. Bancorp (USB -1.3%), First Horizon (FHN -2.7%).
- Online brokerage: Schwab (SCHW -2.3%), E*Trade (ETFC -1.7%), Ameritrade (AMTD -1.1%), Interactive Brokers (IBKR -0.9%).
- Previously: FOMC minutes: June rate hike not a slam dunk yet (Feb. 18)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAT, IAI, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, QABA, FINU, KCE, KRU, RWW, KBWR, RYF, KBWC, FINZ, KRS
Feb. 6, 2015, 9:50 AM
- Financials have been mercilessly pounded in 2015 as hopes for higher interest rates looked like they might be dashed yet again, but today's blowout jobs number - firmly putting a June rate hike on the table - has brought in the dip-buyers.
- The major averages are flat, but the XLF is up 1.4%. The Regional Bank ETF (KRE +2%) and the Bank ETF (KBE +2.1%) are doing even better.
- Among the yield-starved banking names: Bank of America (BAC +3.1%), JPMorgan (JPM +2.6%), Citigroup (C +2%), Regions Financial (RF +4%), KeyCorp (KEY +3%), PNC Financial (PNC +2.9%), SunTrust (STI +2.3%), Zions (ZION +3.6%), Synovus (SNV +2.3%).
- Insurers: MetLife (MET +2%), Prudential (PRU +3.2%), Lincoln National (LNC +4.6%). AIG (AIG +1.5%).
- Trust banks: BNY Mellon (BK +2.7%) State Street (STT +1.9%), Northern Trust (NTRS +2.3%).
- Online brokers (currently getting killed on money-market fee rebates): Schwab (SCHW +4.5%), TD Ameritrade (AMTD +3.5%), E*Trade (ETFC +2.1%).
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, KIE, IAT, IAI, SEF, IYG, IAK, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, QABA, FINU, KRU, RWW, KBWR, RYF, KBWP, KBWI, PSCF, FINZ, KRS
Jan. 30, 2015, 2:59 PM
- The broad averages are moderately in the red, and would be even more so if it wasn't for energy (XLE +1%), solidly higher as oil flies upward by nearly 8% into the close.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
- What's doing worse than energy this year? That would be financials, and the XLF is lower by another 0.95% in today's session. Also faring poorly are utilities (XLU -1.3%), health care (XLV -0.8%), and consumer staples (XLP -1.2%).
Jan. 28, 2015, 2:21 PM
- The 10-year Treasury yield sinks all the way to 1.75% following the FOMC statement which shows the central bank continuing on a path to rate hikes around mid-year. TLT +0.95%, TBT -1.9%
- Yields at the short end aren't moving a lot and continue to price in a 25 basis point hike by the fall.
- Stocks remain modestly higher, but financials (XLF -0.6%) - contemplating an even flatter yield curve - continue to underperform. KBE -1.1%, KRE -1.2%
Jan. 24, 2015, 4:48 PM
- The financial sector is off to a worse start to the year than even the energy names, with the XLF down 3.9% YTD vs. the XLE's 3.2% decline. The S&P 500 is roughly flat. The SPDR KBW Bank ETF (NYSEARCA:KBE) is off 7.5%, and the Regional Bank ETF (NYSEARCA:KRE) is lower by 6.9%.
- Q4 earnings results haven't been wonderful, but financial names had been savaged well before those reports started coming out. Instead there's a difficult regulatory regime that won't quit, and - for now - it's looking like "wait'll next year" for the rising interest rates that were supposed to drive profit margins higher. The 10-year/2-year spread - already pretty low at 150 basis points to start the year - has narrowed to 137 bps.
- A partial roll call of banks: Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) -12.1% YTD, Citigroup (NYSE:C) -10.1%, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) -9.4%, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) -9.4%, Regions Financial (NYSE:RF) -14.7%, KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) -4.5%, PNC Financial (NYSE:PNC) -5.4%, Bank of New York (NYSE:BK) -9.1%, Capital One (NYSE:COF) -6%, Discover (NYSE:DFS) -13.6%.
- Other spread-starved sector names: MetLife (NYSE:MET) -9.8%, AIG (NYSE:AIG) -8%, Prudential (NYSE:PRU) -10.8%, Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) -9.9%.
- Some of what's working in financials: Blackstone (NYSE:BX) +6.7%, E*Trade (NASDAQ:ETFC) +1.2%, WisdomTree (NASDAQ:WETF) +12.3%, Legg Mason +2.8%.
Jan. 22, 2015, 12:35 PM
- Mercilessly sold since the year turned, banks are putting in a rare session of outperformance, helped along by some earnings beats from regional lenders and the return of animal spirits in M&A with RBC's purchase of City National (CYN +18.6%) for $5.4B.
- The XLF +1.4% vs. the S&P's 0.6% gain today, and the regional bank ETF (NYSEARCA:KRE) is higher by 3.1%.
- Among today's reporters putting in big gains are KeyCorp (KEY +5.5%), BB&T (BBT +2.4%), and Huntington Bancshares (HBAN +2.6%), though Flagstar Bancorp (FBC -4.8%) missed estimates.
- Others: Regions Financial (RF +3.9%), PNC Financial (PNC +1.6%), Synovus (SNV +3.2%), M&T Bank (MTB +3%), Hudson City (HCBK +3.1%), First Horizon (FHN +2.7%), and First Republic (FRC +4.9%).
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAT, IAI, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, QABA, FINU, KRU, RWW, KBWR, RYF, PSCF, FINZ, KRS
- Among the TBTFs, Citigroup (C +2.7%) and Bank of America (BAC +2.5%) are leading the way.
Jan. 15, 2015, 3:46 PM
- Oil's plummeting again, but today's weakest sector is the financials (XLF -1%) as Bank of America and Ciitgroup each are punished (down more than 4%) following their Q4 results this morning.
- BofA's and Citi's stories are like that of JPMorgan yesterday - the secular decline in trading revenue, combining with sluggish growth elsewhere, and the continuing wait for higher interest rates to provide better margins.
- Some amount of higher rates had also been priced into the insurers, and they've struggled along with the banks as 2015 has instead brought sharply lower rates (at least at the long end).
- Previously: BofA off 2% after Q4 results (Jan. 15)
- Previously: Citi slips premarket as revenue comes in light (Jan. 15)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, IAI, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, FINU, KCE, RWW, RYF, KBWC, FINZ, KIE, IAK, KBWP, KBWI
Jan. 13, 2015, 10:39 AM
- In a unanimous decision, the Supreme Court ruled homeowners need only write a lender - not file a lawsuit - in order to be able to back out of a mortgage under the Truth in Lending Act.
- That law allows consumers to rescind a mortgage for up to three years after it was made if a lender does not notify them of the numerous details about the loan and its accompanying charges.
- Consumer advocates, of course, claim lenders routinely violated the Act in the years prior to the housing crash.
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KME, FINU, RWW, RYF, FINZ
Dec. 31, 2014, 8:43 AM
- Among the more interesting is the idea of North Korea hackers attacking the infrastructure of the NYSE and Nasdaq, precipitating a gigantic one-hour drop in stocks.
- Others include: 1) Significantly higher Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) estimates, making it the first $1T market cap company, the best-performing large-cap in 2015, and a "must own." 2) Falling home prices in H2, making shorts of homebuilders (ITB, XHB) a good play 3) Bank stocks (NYSEARCA:XLF) have a hard time of it 4) Calling Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) his new Netflix, Carl Icahn amasses a sizable position, forcing a bidding war for the company between Google and Facebook 5) Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) becomes more shareholder friendly, cutting spending and launching a buyback program 6) Activists take aim at Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), forcing John Chambers out 7) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) makes its largest-ever acquisition, and its not in consumer goods, but instead in energy, retail, or construction/equipment.
- The full piece is here.
Dec. 19, 2014, 2:19 PM
Dec. 15, 2014, 11:35 AM
- While publicly traded stocks at 35% remain the most popular investment, that's down from 43% one year ago and 49% in 2012. ETFs at 25% are up from 21% one year ago.
- The most popular equity sectors are financials (NYSEARCA:XLF) at 27%, followed by Consumer Discretionary (NYSEARCA:XLY), and Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE), both at 16%.
- Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) again hold the two top spots for individual picks, with the S&P 500 SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY), the Health Care SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLV), and the MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:EEM) rounding out the top five.
- Source: Tiger 21 Member Favorites Survey
Dec. 9, 2014, 8:52 AM
- A check of the other major banks premarket amid a global selloff of some note and BofA's Brian Moynihan's warning about sluggish Q4 trading revenue finds JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) -1.5%, Citigroup (NYSE:C) -1.5%, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) -1.2%, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) -1.7%, and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) -1.5%.
- XLF -1.1%
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, IAI, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, FINU, KCE, RWW, RYF, KBWC, FINZ
Dec. 5, 2014, 10:06 AM
- Among those counting on higher interest rates to boost profits are banks, insurers, and online brokers, and all are outliers to the upside in today's session after a strong November jobs report has rate hike expectations on the rise. The XLF is up 1%.
- TBTFs: Bank of America (BAC +2.1%), Citigroup (C +1.8%), JPMorgan (JPM +2.2%), Wells Fargo (WFC +1.2%)
- Regionals (KRE +1.9%): Regions Financial (RF +2.6%), KeyCorp (KEY +2.3%), Huntington (HBAN +1.5%), BB&T (BBT +1.6%), Zions (ZION +4%)
- Custodials: BNY Mellon (BNY), State Street (STT +1.6%), Northern Trust (NTRS +1.8%)
- Life insurers: MetLife (MET +2.1%), Prudential (PRU +2.5%), Lincoln National (LNC +2.3%)
- Online brokers: Schwab (SCHW +3.8%), E*Trade (ETFC +3%), Ameritrade (AMTD +2.7%)
- Previously: Short end of yield curve on the move after jobs number (Dec. 5, 2014)
- Previously: Bonds and dollar higher, gold slumps after strong jobs report (Dec. 5, 2014)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, KIE, IAT, IAI, SEF, IYG, IAK, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, RKH, QABA, FINU, KRU, RWW, KBWR, RYF, KBWP, KBWI, PSCF, FINZ, KRS
Dec. 1, 2014, 11:40 AM
- A positive macro outlook for the U.S. (especially compared to the rest of the globe) should boost credit demand, says UBS - upgrading U.S. financials (NYSEARCA:XLF) to Overweight - while the start of a new rate-hike cycle next year bodes well for interest margins.
- UBS's three favored U.S. banks are Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), but TD Bank (NYSE:TD) also makes the buy list thanks to its large American presence.
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, RKH, QABA, FINU, KRU, RWW, KBWR, RYF, FINZ, KRS
Nov. 25, 2014, 2:46 PM
- "Not surprisingly, billionaires reduced their energy allocations (NYSEARCA:XLE) during Q3," says Direxion, unveiling the quarterly rebalance for the iBillionaire Index (which serves as the benchmark for the IBLN ETF). Attention was instead shifted to healthcare (NYSEARCA:XLV) and materials (NYSEARCA:XLB), with companies like Humana (NYSE:HUM) and Monsanto (NYSE:MON).
- Also added to the index: TMO, GM, FB, CBS, GOOG, MAS, APD, DAL, NOV, WHR, THC, ABBV.
- Dropped from the index: AIG, MCK, CTSH, MSI, RIG, CI, APC, GPS, MSFT, CMCSA, NFLX, MHFI, WMB, ICE.
- Outlying sectors: Consumer Discretionary (NYSEARCA:XLY) makes up 23.33% of the iBillionaire Index vs. 11.68% for the S&P 500, and Industrials (NYSEARCA:XLI) and financials (NYSEARCA:XLF) make up just 6.67% each of the index vs. 10.44 and 16.30 of the S&P 500, respectively. Consumer Staples (NYSEARCA:XLP) have zero representation in the index vs. 9.7% in the S&P 500.
- Previously: Direxion launched an ETF with iBillionaire today
Nov. 21, 2014, 1:08 PM
- "In conversations with investors, skepticism remains high while interest in the group remains low," says UBS strategist Julian Emanuel, quickly making at least a contrarian case for buying the financial sector (NYSEARCA:XLF). In addition to that, Emanuel sees a number of positive catalysts emerging over the next year.
- There's higher interest rates, of course, but also underpinning a strong 2015 will be higher volatility and continued robust M&A action, says Emanuel, noting Q3 earnings for U.S. financials gained 9.4% on 5.6% revenue growth.
- The XLF's gain of 10.8% YTD compares to 13.6% for the S&P 500.
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, FINU, RWW, RYF, FINZ
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