Thu, Jul. 14, 2:43 PM
- Moving past the overseas macro, today's modest rally is being led by the financial sector (XLF +1%), particularly the banks (KRE +1.8%), (KBE +1.8%) after JPMorgan beat estimates.
- Also helping is another five basis points move upward in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.53%. Among the yield-starved names applauding: Prudential (PRU +3.1%), Lincoln National (LNC +4.7%), E*Trade (ETFC +1.8%), Schwab (SCHW +1.9%), State Street (STT +2.5%), MetLife (MET +5.2%).
- The Dow is up 0.8%, the S&P 500 0.55%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%.
Tue, Jul. 5, 4:17 PM
- Interest rates continue to plummet, with U.S. government yields on the long end hitting new all-time lows. At least they remain positive (for now). Yields on French government paper are now negative all the way out to nine years, and Swiss 50-year bonds now sport yields below zero.
- Some hawkish words today from San Francisco Fed President Williams weren't enough to lift the share prices of yield-starved financials (XLF -1.5%).
- The SPDR KBW Bank ETF (KBE -3%), the SPDR KBW Regional Bank ETF (KRE -3%)
- Citigroup (C -3.3%), Morgan Stanley (MS -3.5%), Regions Financial (RF -3.9%), Fifth Third (FITB -4.2%), Capital One (COF -3.3%), Legg Mason (LM -3.3%), E*Trade (ETFC -3.2%), Schwab (SCHW -3%), MetLife (MET -4.2%), Prudential (PRU -3.2%), Lincoln (LNC -4.5%)
Fri, Jun. 17, 4:12 PM
Wed, Jun. 15, 3:17 PM
- Having already shed value in June as expectations for rate hikes evaporated, the financial sector (XLF +0.7%) is showing relative strength following the FOMC's standing pat and dialing back expectations for the future level of the Fed Funds rate.
- The S&P 500 is higher by just half the amount of the financials.
- Within financials, the banks (KBE +1.1%), (KRE +1.1%) are particularly strong, led by Bank of America (BAC +1.5%), Morgan Stanley (MS +1.3%), Citigroup (C +1%), BB&T (BBT +1.2%), Fifth Third (FITB +2.2%), SunTrust (STI +1.4%), Zion (ZION +1.3%).
Tue, Jun. 14, 3:48 PM
- The S&P 500 is down just 0.25%, but the financial sector (XLF -1.5%) is taking a far larger beating as the idea of higher interest rates fades, with German 10-year yields falling below zero, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield within sight of its all-time low. KBE -2.3%, KRE -2.3%
- The FOMC concludes its two-day policy meeting tomorrow, at which updated economic projections and dots will be unveiled, along with a Janet Yellen press conference.
- How much of the panic into fixed-income is due to concern about the U.K. exiting the EU will become evident next Thursday night as that country's Brexit votes are tallied.
- Bank of America (BAC -2.5%), Citigroup (C -3.1%), Wells Fargo (WFC -2.5%), Regions Financial (RF -2.9%), KeyCorp (KEY -3.7%), PNC Financial (PNC -2.4%), Fifth Third (FITB -2.6%), SunTrust (STI -2.8%), E*Trade (ETFC -2.6%), MetLife (MET -1.6%), Prudential (PRU -1.8%), BNY Mellon (BK -2%)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, BTO, IYG, FNCL, SEF, FXO, RYF, FINU, RWW, XLFS, FINZ, JHMF, FAZZ, FNCF
Fri, Jun. 3, 4:16 PM
Fri, Jun. 3, 9:47 AM
- At the moment, it's looking like "wait till next year," for the higher interest rates much of the yield-starved financial sector has been waiting for. This morning's disappointing jobs numbers has traders quickly reversing bets on a rate hike this summer.
- Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has crumbled to a two-month low of 1.70%.
- The XLF is down 1.9%, leading the S&P 500's 0.5% decline. The SPDR KBW Bank ETF (KBE -3.5%), the SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE -3.4%).
- Among the Too Big To Fail names, Bank of America (BAC -4.7%) and Citigroup (C -4.8%) are hardest hit. In regionals, Regions Financial (RF -4.4%), KeyCorp (KEY -4%), BB&T (BBT -3.3%), Fifth Third (FITB -4.4%).
- State Street (STT -3.5%), Northern Trust (NTRS -3.8%), Schwab (SCHW -5.4%), E*Trade (ETFC -5.8%), Ameritrade (AMTD -5.5%), MetLife (MET -3.6%), Prudential (PRU -3.2%), Lincoln Financial (LNC -4.1%)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, KRE, UYG, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, IYG, FNCL, SEF, FXO, KBWB, QABA, KBWR, RYF, FINU, KRU, RWW, XLFS, FINZ, KRS, JHMF, WDRW, FAZZ, DPST, FNCF
Tue, May 24, 10:22 AM
- Stocks had already started the morning nicely in the green, but a blowout new home sales number for April has the homebuilders higher by about 2.5%, and the major indexes up by more than 1%.
- It's also got traders upping bets on a June rate hike, with another move to follow before year-end. That's boosting the yield-starved financials (XLF +1.5%), particularly the banks (KBE +2%).
- Among the financial movers: Bank of America (BAC +1.4%), JPMorgan (JPM +1.9%), Regions Financial (RF +1.8%), Fifth Third (FITB +2.1%), E*Trade (ETFC +2.9%), Interactive Brokers (IBKR +2.6%), MetLife (MET +1.8%), Prudential (PRU +2.2%), Lincoln National (LNC +1.8%), State Street (STT +2.1%)
Wed, May 18, 2:11 PM
- Turns out those hawkish Fed speakers yesterday were prepping markets for today's FOMC minutes, which show "most" on the committee as expecting the next rate hike to be in June.
- To review: At the start of the week, short-term rate markets had been expecting less than a 5% chance of tighter policy in June.
- Up 100 points earlier, the Dow (NYSEARCA:DIA) has turned negative, as has the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY). The Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) is holding onto a slim gain. Yield-starved financials (XLF, KRE, KBE) are holding onto very big gains.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is up six basis points to 1.84%. TLT -1.1%
Wed, May 18, 1:08 PM
- The meme of rates lower for longer has been stood on its head in the last 24 hours thanks to some decent economic data, but also surprisingly hawkish Fedspeak yesterday.
- The fixed-income world now believes remarks from the Fed's Williams and Lockhart yesterday may have been a preview of what we'll get when the real power speaks tomorrow - Fischer and Dudley - and then on May 27, when Janet Yellen gives a speech.
- Up at 2 ET are the minutes from the FOMC's April meeting.
- The 10-year yield is higher by five basis points to 1.82% and short-term rate markets have upped expectations for a Fed move this year.
- XLF +1.85%, KBE +3.15%, KRE +3.3%
- Bank of America (BAC +3.7%), Citigroup (C +4.2%), JPMorgan (JPM +3.2%), Wells Fargo (WFC +2.1%), U.S. Bancorp (USB +2.1%), Regions (RF +3.3%), KeyCorp (KEY +3.7%), PNC Financial (PNC +2.7%), Fifth Third (FITB +3.7%), Capital One (COF +1.9%), E*Trade (ETFC +4.4%), Schwab (SCHW +4.8%), MetLife (MET +2.9%), Prudential (PRU +3.4%), Lincoln National (LNC +4.2%), BNY Mellon (BK +2.3%), Northern Trust (NTRS +2.9%)
Tue, May 10, 2:34 PM
- No sooner than it's noticed that the S&P 500 hasn't moved more than 1% in either direction for the last month, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 1.1%.
- It's a broad gain, with financials (XLF +1.2%), energy (XLE +1.6%), and materials (XLB +1.6%) leading the way.
- Gold's little-changed, oil's higher by 2.45% to $44.51, and the 10-year Treasury yield is up one basis point to 1.755%.
Wed, Apr. 13, 11:31 AM
- JPMorgan's revenues and profits both fell from a year ago, but the lame performance of the banks thus far this year has already priced in a weak quarter. JPMorgan is higher by 3.8%, with Citigroup (C +4.7%), Bank of America (BAC +3.5%), Wells Fargo (WFC +1.7%), Goldman Sachs (GS +2.9%), and Morgan Stanley (MS +4.4%) joining the party. The XLF is higher by 1.75% vs. the S&P 500's 0.7% advance.
- But what about all of these players (except for Citi) having their living wills rejected by the Fed, FDIC, or both? A sideshow, no doubt. Regulators are going to regulate - like the commercial goes, "It's what they do." Banks will tweak plans, numbers, or whatever they need to in order to get D.C. to eventually sign off.
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, BTO, IAI, IYG, FNCL, SEF, FXO, RYF, KCE, FINU, RWW, XLFS, FINZ, FAZZ
Fri, Apr. 8, 4:30 PM
Thu, Apr. 7, 12:58 PM
- The Nasdaq's down 1.2%, the S&P 500 1%, and DJIA 0.9% three hours before the close.
- Oil's lower by 2.7%, but it's the financial sector's (NYSEARCA:XLF) 1.5% decline leading markets to the downside as banks and other carry players mull another six basis point fall in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.70%.
Tue, Mar. 29, 2:49 PM
- Not joining the broad market rally following Janet Yellen's caution on the pace of rate hikes are the financials (XLF -0.2%), where any earnings growth will depend, in part, on higher interest rates.
- The S&P 500 is higher by 0.85% and Nasdaq by 1.7%, but Bank of America (BAC -2.2%), Citigroup (C -1%), Wells Fargo (WFC -1.5%), Regions Financial (RF -2.1%), KeyCorp (KEY -1.8%), Fifth Third (FITB -2.1%), MetLife (MET -1.2%), and Prudential (PRU -0.8%) are among those under pressure.
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, BTO, IYG, SEF, FNCL, FXO, RYF, FINU, RWW, FINZ, XLFS
- Previously: Stocks and gold turn higher, yields and dollar lower, on Yellen remarks (March 29)
- Previously: Yellen signals caution on rate hikes (March 29)
Thu, Mar. 24, 10:43 AM
- Oil's lower by 2.9% today and about 10% for the week, but it's the financial sector (XLF -1.3%) leading the S&P 500's 0.5% decline today. This even as Jim Bullard becomes the latest Fed speaker to more or less disavow last week's dovish FOMC meeting result, and suggest higher rates could come as soon as April's get-together.
- Morgan Stanley (MS -2.9%), Citigroup (C -2.5%), BB&T (BBT -1.3%), U.S. Bancorp (USB -1.3%), MetLife (MET -2.8%), Prudential (PRU -3.5%)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, KRE, UYG, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, IYG, SEF, FNCL, FXO, KBWB, QABA, RYF, FINU, KBWR, KRU, RWW, FINZ, KRS, XLFS
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