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Wed, Jan. 13, 5:06 AM
- The SocGen strategist says the West is about to be hit by a wave of deflation from emerging market economies and that central banks were unaware of the disaster about to hit them.
- “I realize most people think I am talking utter garbage but I’m used to that. And maybe I am! But the truth will come out in the next recession which may be pretty close now,” Edwards says.
- “The previous bear market low was in March 2009 when the S&P reached 666. I think we’ll go below that within this bear market.
- “Developments in the global economy will push the U.S. back into recession. The financial crisis will reawaken. It will be every bit as bad as in 2008-09 and it will turn very ugly indeed.
- “Emerging market currencies are still in freefall. The U.S. corporate sector is being crushed by the appreciation of the dollar.
- He says the U.S. economy is in far worse shape than the Fed realizes: “We have seen massive credit expansion in the U.S. This is not for real economic activity; it is borrowing to finance share buybacks.”
- Edwards attacked the “incredible conceit” of central bankers, who had failed to learn the lessons of the housing bubble that led to the financial crisis and slump of 2008-09. “They didn’t understand the system then and they don’t understand how they are screwing up again. Deflation is upon us and the central banks can’t see it.”
- Note: Edwards's "Ice Age" thesis goes back to Aug. 2008, and was reiterated in Dec. 2009, Sept. 2011, and May 2012.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, UPRO, PSQ, SPXU, TQQQ, SPXL, SPLV, RSP, SPXS, QID, PRF, SQQQ, QLD, CRF, DOG, DXD, RWL, UDOW, EPS, SDOW, VV, USA, SCHX, DDM, VFINX, IWB, OEF, ZF, SPHB, MGC, SPHQ, BXUB, QQEW, FEX, QQQE, VONE, XLG, JKD, EEH, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, EQL, QQXT, ROLA, IWL, SPUU, ONEK, EQWL, EWRI, LGLV, ERW, EQAL, FWDD, FMK, ZLRG
Mon, Jan. 11, 4:38 AM
- JPM strategists note that earnings expectations have been managed aggressively going into earnings season. Four months ago, the "hurdle rate" for S&P 500 stocks was +5% Y/Y; now it's -4% Y/Y. “If this were to materialize, it would be the weakest quarter for EPS delivery so far in the upcycle.”
- Energy sector earnings consensus signals only single-digit losses, while oil prices are 36% below the 21015 average.
- Sees euro-zone earnings outperforming U.S. for second year running.
- Overall, firm says risk/reward for stocks is poor. Use bounces as selling opportunities.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, SH, XLE, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, VDE, UPRO, PSQ, SPXU, ERX, TQQQ, OIH, SPXL, SPLV, XOP, RSP, SPXS, QID, PRF, SQQQ, ERY, FCG, QLD, CRF, DOG, DIG, GASL, DXD, PBW, RWL, UDOW, EPS, DUG, SDOW, BGR, XES, IYE, VV, USA, IEO, SCHX, DDM, VFINX, IEZ, QCLN, FENY, PXE, IWB, OEF, PXI, ZF, FIF, PXJ, SPHB, MGC, SPHQ, PSCE, BXUB, NDP, RYE, QQEW, FEX, QQQE, VONE, XLG, JKD, FXN, EEH, SPLX, PUW, SFLA, BXUC, EQL, QQXT, DDG, ROLA, IWL, SPUU, ONEK, HECO, EQWL, EWRI, LGLV, ERW, FWDD, EQAL, ZLRG, FMK, CFA, SYE, CFO, LLSP, UDPIX, SBUS, USWD, USSD, DRIP, GUSH, OTPIX, QUS, RYARX, GSLC
Nov. 18, 2015, 12:30 PM
- An ETF industry first, according to ETF.com, Guggenheim's $9.6B S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA:RSP) will absorb the $70M Guggenheim Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA:EWRI) on Jan. 26.
- Alongside this move, the $129M Guggenheim Russell MidCap Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA:EWRM) and the $43M Guggenheim Russell 2000 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA:EWRS) will take on new tickers, indexes, and names on that same date. They will become the Guggenheim S&P MidCap 400 Equal Weight ETF (EWMC) and the Guggenheim S&P SmallCap 600 Equal Weight ETF (EWSC), respectively.
- The $528M Guggenheim Russell Top 50 Mega Cap ETF (NYSEARCA:XLG) will also drop Russell in favor of S&P on Jan. 26, becoming the Guggenheim S&P 500 Top 50 ETF (keeping the same ticker).
May 1, 2014, 11:18 AM
- If Pfizer is successful in acquiring U.K.-based AstraZeneca, its plan to redomicile there will save it millions in corporate taxes. The tax arbitrage scheme, called an inversion, creates a holding company in the foreign country with the lower tax rate. Britain's corporate tax rate is 21% (20% next year) which is substantially lower than the U.S.'s top rate of 35% (up to 40% when state and local taxes are included).
- About 24 U.S. companies have employed this strategy since 2008. Ireland, Canada, Switzerland and the Netherlands are also popular destinations for redomiciling.
- According to Reuters, many of the m&a deals this year have been driven, at least in part, by tax inversions.
- Predictably, investment bankers are working feverishly to generate deals in various industries that take advantage of the loophole before Congress acts to close it.
- Some lawmakers say that the best solution is to reform the U.S. business tax code.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, VOO, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPLV, TQQQ, SPXL, QID, PRF, SPXS, RSP, SQQQ, DOG, QLD, DXD, RWL, EPS, UDOW, SDOW, USMV, DDM, VV, SCHX, IWB, OEF, SPHB, NY, MGC, BXUB, QQEW, QQQE, VONE, FEX, JKD, XLG, TRND, SFLA, EQL, QQXT, SPLX, BXUC, ROLA, BXDB, EEH, TNDQ, SPXH, ONEK, IWL, TRSK, PXLC, EWRI, ERW, FWDD, LGLV, FMK, ALTL, SYE
Apr. 29, 2014, 8:05 AM
- If Pfizer (PFE) is successful in its plan to acquire AstraZeneca (AZN) and redomicile in the U.K., it will join a growing list of other U.S. firms who have executed similar transactions in order to lower their tax bills.
- Members of Congress say that the moves are symptomatic of the need to revamp the U.S. tax code.
- The U.K. corporate tax rate is 21% compared to the top U.S. rate of 35%. American firms must also pay taxes when they repatriate foreign profits after receiving credits for foreign taxes. This is why the ex-U.S. corporate cash horde is so large.
- Pfizer's 2013 tax rate was 27%.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, VOO, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPLV, TQQQ, SPXL, QID, PRF, SPXS, RSP, SQQQ, DOG, QLD, DXD, RWL, EPS, UDOW, SDOW, USMV, DDM, VV, SCHX, IWB, OEF, SPHB, NY, MGC, BXUB, QQEW, QQQE, VONE, FEX, JKD, XLG, TRND, SFLA, EQL, QQXT, BXUC, SPLX, ROLA, BXDB, EEH, TNDQ, SPXH, ONEK, IWL, TRSK, PXLC, EWRI, ERW, FWDD, LGLV, FMK, ALTL, SYE
Apr. 22, 2014, 2:51 PM
- A "regime change" is at hand, argue two BAML technicians, with mega caps set to take over leadership of the market from small caps.
- The iShares S&P 100 ETF (OEF) is up 1.3% YTD vs. the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) down 1.5%. Over both 5- and 10-year horizons, however, the small caps are comfortably ahead.
- "Mega caps are set up for relative leadership while small caps are breaking relative support and set up for a loss of leadership," setting up a "regime change for the rally that began in late 2012 which was led by small caps and lagged by mega caps."
- ETFs: IWM, TZA, TNA, UWM, VB, IJR, SLY, RWJ, URTY, SCHA, TWM, RWM, SRTY, OEF, DWAS, SAA, MGC, VTWO, XLG, SDD, VIOO, RSCO, JKJ, SBB, FYX, XSLV, EWRS, TWOK, IWL, SMLV, FMK, PXSC
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