Metals And Mining ETF Will Benefit From Fed Policy
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at CNBC.com (Sep 10, 2012)
at MarketWatch.com (Feb 29, 2012)
at MarketWatch.com (Mar 31, 2011)
at CNBC.com (Nov 2, 2010)
at CNBC.com (May 5, 2010)
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Sector: Basic Materials
Wed, Mar. 12, 6:56 PM
- While steep drops in copper, iron ore and coking coal prices have spooked investors, KGHM chief Derek White says there's no need for mining executives to panic - at least not yet.
- There's no real threat to copper mining operations at a long-term copper price ~$3/lb., White says, but that could change if the price drops below $2.50 for a prolonged period.
- Iron ore prices have performed better than expected in recent years, and this week’s drop brings them closer to many forecasts; analysts believe most iron ore projects are fine at a long-term price above $100/metric ton.
- Coking coal's current $110/metric ton is still not low enough to disrupt most operations, with some exceptions; TD Securities expects Teck Resources (TCK) to defer its Quintette project in British Columbia until the market recovers.
- ETFs: XME, COPX, CU, JUNR, PICK, JJC, DBB, CPER, RJZ, BOM, BOS, JJM, BDD, CUPM, RGRI, UBM, BDG, USMI, HEVY
Mon, Mar. 10, 10:45 AM
- The 8.3% dive in the price of iron ore to $104.70 per ton is the 2nd largest one-day decline on record, and came following weekend data showing an 18.1% Y/Y slump in Chinese exports in February (a gain of 7.5% was expected). While miners like BHP and RIO remain optimistic about supply/demand dynamics (though dour on price prospects), Goldman - picking one analyst team - sees the market moving into surplus in H2 and prices falling below $100 per ton.
- The Shanghai Composite fell 2.9% overnight and Brazil's Bovespa is down 2% in the early-going. Australia (EWA) declined 0.9% and the aussie (FXA) is off 0.6% to $0.9017.
- The steelmaking ingredient is off 22% YTD and at its lowest price since October 2012.
- In the meantime, the rumors are flying, including speculation a mill in China's Shanxi province defaulted on Friday and shut five to six furnaces. There's also chatter about banks looking to call in 20% of loans to private steel companies.
- EWZ -2.1%, VALE -2.8%.
- Brazil ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRAZ, BZQ, BRZU, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
- Base metal mining ETFs: XME, JUNR, PICK
Nov. 15, 2013, 12:52 PM
- The basic materials sector has badly lagged the broader market YTD, and Miller Tabak's Jonathan Krinsky surmises investor rotation into the group is likely if the overall market rally is set to continue.
- Krinsky's charts tell him the sector has been making higher lows since the 2009 bottom, but unlike the broad market and many other sectors, it has yet to clear its 2007-08 highs, giving the look of an ascending triangle - and the presumption of an upside resolution.
- ETFs: XLB, XME, JUNR, PICK, MSXX, FMAT.
Sep. 12, 2013, 2:58 PM
- Oppenheimer analysts are believers in the materials sector, citing increasing evidence that the global economy is modestly improving from its recent lethargic pace of growth, particularly in emerging markets.
- Strategas isn't so sure; despite some stronger equity performance in recent weeks, it sees the persistence of cyclical weakness in emerging economies and the apparent forming of a structural consolidation in global commodities complex; it favors companies with a higher domestic revenue profile over those with a broader global footprint.
- Vulcan Materials (VMC) gets just 1% of its revenue overseas, while Airgas (ARG) has just 2%; those least exposed to the U.S. economy include Newmont Mining (NEM), which gets all of its revenue abroad, and International Flavors (IFF) and Owens-Illinois (OI), which each get 23%-24% of sales at home.
- ETFs: XLB, XME, EMT, PICK, JUNR. MSXX.
Sep. 11, 2013, 10:56 AM
- BofA Merrill Lynch sees huge contrarian value in global mining and steel companies while investors remain underweight in their holdings.
- A stronger global economy is coming, BAML says, noting China has been restocking iron ore, the pace of copper destocking in the country has slowed, and global steel prices have been rising.
- The top buys from the firm: ATI in steel, CNX in coal, ABX and KGC in precious metals, KALU in aluminum, and SCCO in copper, plus diversified miners FCX and VALE.
- ETFs: XME, XLB, EMT, PICK, JUNR, MSXX.
Aug. 6, 2013, 7:22 PM
- Forbes finds the underlying holdings of the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) show an impressive 20.1% of holdings on a weighted basis have enjoyed insider buying within the past six months.
- Officers and directors of Freeport McMoRan (FCX), including the chairman and vice chairman, purchased more than 3.6M shares since June; FCX comprises ~3% of XME.
- Alcoa (AA), which also makes up ~3% of XME, shows two directors and officers purchasing shares.
Jun. 17, 2013, 3:20 PMJ.P. Morgan turns a bit more positive on mining stocks (XME), moving to Neutral from Underweight on the sector as miners cut capex and the sector's relative price/book ratio is back to 2009 lows. While the firm remains skeptical that free cash flow yield could turn positive again in 2014, it says the market could give the sector the benefit of the doubt for a while. Sector favorites: RIO, GLCNF.PK. | Jun. 17, 2013, 3:20 PM | Comment!
Apr. 29, 2013, 8:41 AMCredit Suisse remains bearish on the commodity sector, noting years of high prices triggered a capex surge, with new supplies coming on just at the time they're not needed. Mining stocks (XME) may look cheap, says the team, but it's a sector that once it gets oversold tends to remain so. Big-cap oil (XLE)? It tends to outperform only during periods when stocks are falling, credit spreads are rising, or the oil price is spiking - none of which is likely. | Apr. 29, 2013, 8:41 AM | Comment!
Apr. 22, 2013, 11:29 AMSA author Emerging Money is worried for the mining sector following Caterpillar's (CAT) Q1 earning report, in which the company said it expects sales of its traditional mining machines to fall 50% in 2013. "What might be scary to think about" is that "commodity prices are actually still quite high," Emerging Money says. "This tells me it could get much uglier as well." (Caterpillar earnings call) | Apr. 22, 2013, 11:29 AM | 1 Comment
Jun. 12, 2012, 5:07 AMSome mining companies (including BHP and RIO) that have relied mostly on surface mining are now going deeper, allowing them to continue using mining, processing and transport infrastructure even after the surface deposits are depleted. New technologies and the high price of commodities are making the unusually-deep mines financially feasible, but going deeper isn't without its risks. | Jun. 12, 2012, 5:07 AM | 9 Comments
Dec. 4, 2011, 4:56 AMGraham Tuckwell, who created the first ETFs for gold and oil, is looking to sell his company, ETF Securities, for a potential price of £1B ($1.6B), the FT reports. Tuckwell's decision comes as money pours into gold ETFs and scrutiny increases on the market for the funds. | Dec. 4, 2011, 4:56 AM | 1 Comment
Aug. 6, 2011, 7:50 AMGold miners (like AEM, GG, NEM) haven't always proved great at the "beat-the-number" Wall Street game, as recent results have shown, but that doesn't mean they're bad investments, Bill Fleckenstein argues - just ask whether you can buy ounces in the ground cheaper than above ground. | Aug. 6, 2011, 7:50 AM | 10 Comments
Mar. 2, 2011, 7:39 AMThe aussie recovers from a fall to trade near unchanged after Australian Q4 GDP comes in slightly softer than expected, rising 0.7%. Q1 GDP may show a negative print as the effects from the flood show up, but the mining boom will assure it's only a temporary setback. | Mar. 2, 2011, 7:39 AM | Comment!
Feb. 7, 2011, 9:45 AM
Jan. 4, 2011, 9:13 AMBHP Billiton (BHP) and Xstrata (XSRAF.PK) could be the major beneficiaries as floods in Australia push the price of coking coal up by 30%. BHP has been attempting to shift coal pricing away from annual and towards monthly contacts, an effort sure to continue after these events. | Jan. 4, 2011, 9:13 AM | Comment!
Dec. 31, 2010, 5:20 PM
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