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- Yahoo Search may become Safari's default search engine.
- This puts Google in a tough position as it continues to battle anti-trust issues in Europe.
- Microsoft will also benefit as it shares 12% of Yahoo's search revenue.
- Following the Firefox deal, and assuming Yahoo can also get Safari, Yahoo may become the best play on Search going forward.
- Yahoo's assets and cash are a good hedge against downside risk.
- Yahoo's position in Alibaba has given it a lot of breathing room. It should carefully let its strategy unfold in 2015.
- Yahoo may still appreciate further if it continues to land big deals such as the new partnership with Mozilla Firefox.
Can Mayer Successfully Transition Yahoo: An Analysis Of Her Mobile-Centric Strategy And An Algorithmic Forecast
- Yahoo stock has more than tripled due to the company’s investment in Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba.
- Yahoo has acquired new startups to enter new growth markets in online advertising.
- Yahoo is trying to find a tax-free way to return remaining investment in Alibaba to shareholders.
- I Know First algorithm correctly predicted stock price increase in June 30th article and forecasts a future bullish signal for Yahoo stock.
- Firefox will make Yahoo its default search engine.
- Yahoo's search business may undergo a significant period of growth, assuming factors such as pricing and the total number of ads sold increase significantly.
- When conservatively estimating the impact of Firefox, paired with growth in pricing, the search business may grow from $1.8 billion to more than $4 billion in revenue over the next three years.
Yahoo-Mozilla Deal Likely Worth Billions For Yahoo
- Yahoo's search engine will soon be the default search for Firefox, which currently controls 14-19% of the browser market share.
- I estimate that this deal will add $2-2.7 billion of revenue to Yahoo per year, and $2.3-3.1 billion if Yahoo terminates its search engine deal with Microsoft next year.
- Yahoo may be able to capitalize further on this tremendous opportunity by increasing Firefox usage through promotion on its web page.
- YHOO is suitable for Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach.
- According to the ModernGraham valuation model, the company is fairly valued at the present time.
- The market is implying an 11.28% earnings growth over the next 7-10 years, within a margin of safety relative to the rate the company has seen in recent years.
Yahoo's Acquisition Of BrightRoll Highly Accretive Over The Next 5 Years
- Yahoo acquired BrightRoll, a programmatic ad buying platform, which is distinct from a real-time bidding exchange.
- Programmatic ad buying is expected to grow at a fairly high rate as advertisers re-appropriate marketing budgets for targeted ad-buying across publishers.
- The $640 million acquisition offers meaningful upside prospects, as video advertising is expected to take off along with programmatic ad-buying.
Update: Yahoo's Acquisition Of BrightRoll Is A Significant Step In The Right Direction
- Yahoo has been looking to double down on video advertising, and has confirmed it is buying BrightRoll.
- This acquisition supports my original thesis that Yahoo would need to acquire video ad technology to succeed.
- This acquisition means that Yahoo will likely not acquire AOL.
Yahoo Eyes Video Ad Dollars With BrightRoll Acquisition
- This acquisition can catapult Yahoo to a No. 1 position in terms of the number of ads served in the US.
- BrightRoll leads the video ad tech industry, and continues to dominate over some of the top ad tech platforms such as LiveRail and Adapt.tv.
- Video online ad spending is expected to exceed $12.71 billion by 2018.
- Yahoo has moved considerably higher as a result of Alibaba.
- However, core business developments and the prospects of future capital returns make the investment opportunity extremely promising.
- On purely a tangible basis, Yahoo is worth $42.28 billion.
- However, after running an updated sum-of-the-parts analysis, the business should be worth $56 billion (conservatively).
- Various newer divisions of Yahoo are becoming profitable, presenting opportunities for future growth.
- The Display segment continues to struggle.
- Many of the new revenue drivers will demand attention in upcoming quarters.
- Recent events surrounding Yahoo have led it to be a very compelling investment for a variety of reasons.
- Sum of the parts analysis shows YHOO could be undervalued by as much as 40% with plenty of downside protection.
- Starboard reveals an interesting strategy that seems to coincide with Mayer's view from Q3 Earnings.
- Yahoo reported a phenomenal quarter and disclosed qualitative information that helps to quantify Yahoo's recovering search, display and native ad business.
- Earnings growth will come from mobile (native ads), share buybacks and strategic acquisitions.
- I believe that a combination of these three factors along with further upside in its Alibaba stake will drive the valuation premium significantly higher by the end of the year.
- Yahoo reported their quarterly earnings which was embraced by Wall Street.
- The shares have failed to trade above the BABA IPO high of $44 per share.
- I suspect the company's efforts to negate the tax effect will be futile.
Yahoo Earnings: Mobile, Windfall Profits From Alibaba Sale Boost Results
- The sale of Yahoo's 140 million shares in Alibaba boosted its cash position by $7 billion to $12 billion.
- While Yahoo's core search ad revenues (excluding TAC) improved by 6% year-over-year, its display ad revenues declined by 6%.
- The primary reason for growth in search ads revenue was the growth in the price per click.
Yahoo: Ignore The Headlines, The Q3 '14 Results Were Bad
- Yahoo reported Q314 numbers that generally beat estimates based on non-repeating items.
- Operations continue to show negative trends.
- A big jump in earnings from equity interests provided all of the upside that will drop going forward with the reduced investment in Alibaba.
Update: Yahoo Talks Taxes And Acquisitions On Q3 Earnings Call
- Yahoo reported higher than expected earnings on 3Q earnings call.
- CEO Marissa Mayer says company brought in tax experts to help minimize tag burden from sale of Alibaba shares.
- Mayer defended her acquisition strategy and said Tumblr would generate $100 million next year.
- This earnings call confirmed my arguments that Yahoo needed to minimize its tax burden and would need to get Tumblr generating revenue.
Fri, Dec. 12, 10:54 AM
- Hortonworks (NASDAQ:HDP) opened at $24 and is now at $24.13, up 50.8% from its $16 IPO price.
- Hortonworks, one of the two most prominent developers (along with Intel-backed Cloudera) of software distributions for the Hadoop big data framework, is now worth just over $1B, or ~15x gross billings from the 12 months ending Sep. 30.
- Yahoo's (YHOO +1.1%) 7.6M-share (16.8%) stake is worth $183M. Teradata's (TDC -1.4%) 2.9M-share (7%) stake is worth $70M.
- Prospectus, IPO analysis
- Prior Hortonworks coverage
Fri, Dec. 5, 9:16 AM
- While downgrading Google to Neutral, BofA/Merrill's Justin Post has upgraded Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) to Buy, and hiked his target by $7 to $62.
- Post: "While Yahoo continues to lose US online ad share (from 7% in 2013 to 6.2% in 2014E and 5.6% in 2015E), we are upgrading Yahoo to Buy from Neutral based on Alibaba and tax upside potential."
- He adds CFO Ken Goldman has suggested Yahoo remains optimistic about "finding a promising tax solution" for monetizing its remaining 384M-share Alibaba stake (previous), and plans to detail its plans during its Q1 earnings call.
- Yahoo's Alibaba stake currently has a pre-tax value of $41.9B. Several firms hiked their targets in November.
Wed, Nov. 26, 4:53 AM
- Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) is suing its former vice president of IT operations Mike Kail, who left the company in August to become chief information officer at Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO).
- The suit says that Kail arranged Netflix contracts with IT service companies Vistara and NetEnrich, and then pocketed commissions of 12%-15% of the monthly fees Netflix paid each company.
Tue, Nov. 25, 1:13 PM
- The Information reports Yahoo (YHOO - unchanged) and search partner Microsoft (MSFT +0.5%) are aggressively trying to sell Apple on replacing Google (GOOG +0.6%) as the default search engine for the Safari browser (pre-installed on all iOS/Mac OS hardware) when its Google deal expires in 2015.
- Apple, which naturally views Google as a major rival, already dropped Google as iOS and Mac OS' Spotlight search provider this year in favor of Bing. Yahoo, meanwhile, is less than a week removed from announcing it has displaced Google as Firefox's default U.S. search provider; Google is still the default provider in Europe.
- The Firefox deal suggests Google is willing to walk away from default search agreements if Yahoo/Microsoft (hungry to grow their scale) significantly undercut its revenue-sharing terms, betting much of its base will keep using Google regardless. Macquarie has estimated Google provides Apple with a 75% cut on Safari-driven iOS search ad revenue.
- On iOS, users could keep relying on Google search in the event of a Yahoo deal by manually selecting Google as their Safari search option (should Yahoo become the default), or by using Google's popular search and Chrome apps. StatCounter estimates Google had a 92.2% October mobile/tablet search share to Yahoo and Bing's combined 6.5%.
Tue, Nov. 25, 3:38 AM
- Yahoo's (NASDAQ:YHOO) new move to begin selling canvas prints of Flickr photos is stirring controversy within the Flickr community.
- Yahoo said last week that it would begin selling the prints of 50M Creative Commons-licensed images as well as an unspecified number of handpicked photos from Flickr.
- For handpicked photos, the company will give 51% of sales to their creators, but Yahoo will keep all of the revenue for sales of Creative Commons images.
- Many contributors are not happy about the new move, while other amateur photographers are pleased by the new publicity.
Wed, Nov. 19, 5:20 PM
- Per the terms of a new 5-year deal with Mozilla, Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), whose search engine is powered by Bing (NASDAQ:MSFT), will provide "the default search experience for Firefox in the United States on mobile and desktop." The deal also "provides a framework for exploring future product integrations and distribution opportunities to other markets."
- No word on revenue-sharing terms. Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) has long been Firefox's default search provider. Google's deal was last renewed in 2011, apparently on more favorable terms to Mozilla.
- Though its browser share has fallen in recent years, thanks to both Chrome's gains and a relatively weak mobile position, StatCounter estimates Firefox still has a 12% combined PC/mobile/console browser share globally. Chrome's share is at 41%, and Internet Explorer's at 13%.
- StatCounter puts Yahoo and Bing's combined global search share at just 7.4%. However, comScore puts their combined U.S. PC search share at 29.8%.
- YHOO +0.8% AH.
Wed, Nov. 19, 4:11 PM
- Yahoo (YHOO) "has been ferreting away over the past few weeks on several more big acquisitions, largely aimed at helping its flagging display business," Kara Swisher reports. Well-funded ad tech startups MediaMath, RadiumOne, and Turn are reportedly among the targets being considered.
- All three companies operate in the fast-growing market for programmatic (automated) ad buys, which presents challenges for Web publishers such as Yahoo to go with opportunities. RadiumOne was once believed to be hatching IPO plans.
- The ink is barely dry on Yahoo's $640M deal to buy video ad tech platform BrightRoll, whose advertiser-facing solutions include a programmatic buying platform. Four months ago, Yahoo struck a deal to buy Flurry, a provider of mobile analytics tools and an in-app ad network.
- Swisher also reports Yahoo has hired consulting giant McKinsey and "a spate of banks" (including Goldman and JPMorgan) to advise it as it continues exploring options to tax-efficiently monetize its Alibaba/Yahoo Japan stakes.
Mon, Nov. 17, 3:38 AM
- Amid a campaign to merge AOL (NYSE:AOL) and Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), activist investor Starboard Value has revealed that it bought a 2.4% stake in AOL in the third quarter.
- Starboard also took a stake in Yahoo during the same period, urging CEO Marissa Mayer to consider a combination of the two companies.
- Starboard has disclosed the size of its position in Yahoo, listing 7.7M shares, or about a 0.8% stake, putting it just outside the list of top 10 shareholders in the company.
- Previously: Activist Starboard takes stake in Yahoo, calls for AOL merger
Fri, Nov. 14, 3:12 PM
- Oppenheimer has hiked its Yahoo (YHOO +2.1%) target by $12 to $61, and FBR has hiked its target by $10 to $60. Shares have made new highs, and (with a big assist from Alibaba) are now up 27% YTD.
- FBR's William Bird: "YHOO offers a lower-cost play on Alibaba with the potential for improved core Yahoo performance as new initiatives (i.e., mobile, native, social, and video) likely start to overcome core display pressure."
- His new target (naturally) reflects Alibaba's post-IPO rally, partly offset by expectations of lower buybacks (due to a higher stock price) and a slight reduction to his sum-of-the-parts valuation due to the BrightRoll deal.
- Two days ago: Yahoo, Alibaba rally following (more) bullish notes
Wed, Nov. 12, 1:15 PM
- Much as they did a week ago, Yahoo (YHOO +2.8%) and Alibaba (BABA +3.7%) are rallying following upbeat Street commentary. BofA/Merrill and UBS have hiked their Yahoo targets in the wake of the BrightRoll deal, BMO and SunTrust have offered positive remarks about Alibaba's Singles Day performance, and HSBC has launched coverage on Alibaba at Overweight.
- BofA/Merrill's Justin Post argues BrightRoll "should enhance Yahoo’s video ad serving capabilities and put the company in a more competitive position with Facebook’s LiveRail, AOL’s Adap.tv and YouTube." His target has been hiked by $7 to $55.
- SunTrust's Robert Peck thinks Alibaba's Singles Day revenue may have risen 65% Y/Y. He also expects the company's mobile monetization rate (up strongly in FQ2, though still below PC levels) to rise again in FQ3, aided by "Tmall growth and strong ROIs for mobile ads on Taobao."
Wed, Nov. 12, 3:10 AM
- At least two more top-10 Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) shareholders are pushing for an AOL (NYSE:AOL) merger and have taken their plea directly to AOL CEO Tim Armstrong.
- Armstrong has acknowledged the potential benefits of a merger, but indicated he would only consider a friendly deal, Reuters reports.
- The move follows a campaign by activist investor Starboard Value, which is pushing Yahoo to consider a deal with AOL and unlock its valuable stakes in Asian Web companies.
- Previously: AOL CEO downplays Yahoo talk, predicts ad shakeup
- Previously: Activist Starboard takes stake in Yahoo, calls for AOL merger
Tue, Nov. 11, 4:58 PM
- "BrightRoll is a large, growing and profitable business with net revenues expected to exceed $100 million this year," says Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) as it announces its acquisition of the video ad platform. The deal is expected to close in Q1 2015.
- Yahoo notes BrightRoll's programmatic (automated) ad platform handles ad-buying for 87 AdAge Top 100 U.S. advertisers, as well as all of the top 10 demand-side (advertiser-facing) online ad platforms. Meanwhile, BrightRoll's publisher-facing offerings monetize ad inventory for "tens of thousands" of sites/apps.
- Yahoo, hungry for some time to grow its video ad scale and put an end to its display ad revenue declines, declares acquiring BrightRoll "will dramatically strengthen Yahoo's video advertising platform, making it the largest in the US."
- The acquisition price is lower than the ~$700M previously reported by TechCrunch. Yahoo just reaped $6.3B in post-tax Alibaba IPO proceeds; it has promised to return at least half of the sum to shareholders.
Mon, Nov. 10, 2:59 PM
- Hortonworks, provider of one of the two most popular software distributions for the Hadoop big data/analytics framework, has filed for an IPO under the symbol HDP. Underwriters include Goldman, Credit Suisse, RBC, Pac Crest, and Wells Fargo. (prospectus)
- For now, Hortonworks is only filing to raise up to $100M, but given the company was valued at over $1B in an early-2014 funding round, that figure might rise. Yahoo (YHOO +1.7%), which spun out Hortonworks in 2011 in tandem with VC firm Benchmark, has a 19.6% pre-IPO stake. Teradata (TDC +1.9%) owns 8.3%, and H-P 5.9%.
- Both sales and losses have been growing rapidly as enterprises embrace Hadoop to analyze giants sets of unstructured data, and Hortonworks spends aggressively to go after the opportunity. Revenue for the nine months ending Sep. 30 totaled $33.4M (+110% Y/Y), and net loss $86.7M.
- Gross billings for the 12 months ending Sep. 30 totaled $65.7M. Hortonworks had 233 support subscription customers at the end of the period.
- Cloudera, Hortonworks' biggest rival, raised $900M in March ($740M from Intel) at a $4.1B valuation. Both Hortonworks and Cloudera have been working to add enterprise-class reliability and management features to their Hadoop distributions.
Sun, Nov. 9, 11:48 AM
- Potential investors include Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), private equity firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, and others.
- Previously: Yahoo set to invest in Snapchat at $10B valuation
- Previously: Kleiner Perkins investing in Snapchat at ~$10B valuation
- Previously: Alibaba looking to invest in Snapchat at $10B valuation
- Previously: Facebook reportedly offered $3B for Snapchat, was turned down
Wed, Nov. 5, 11:32 AM
- Plenty of firms (including many of the underwriters who just launched coverage) have hiked their Alibaba (BABA +3.5%) after the company beat FQ2 revenue estimates yesterday (while posting in-line EPS) on the back of strong GMV growth and improving mobile monetization. Both Alibaba and Yahoo (YHOO +2.3%) are making fresh highs.
- In addition to Alibaba's gains, Yahoo is benefiting from a bullish launch from SunTrust's Robert Peck. Peck considers the weakness in Yahoo's core properties priced in, and believes the Street is "giving little credit to some of the progress made more recently around mobile, native [ads], Tumblr, search, and video." He estimates the core business is being valued at less than 1x EV/EBITDA.
- Morgan Stanley likes Alibaba's 262% Y/Y mobile GMV growth, and thinks the acceleration seen in Taobao GMV points to improved conversion rates. Meanwhile, Jefferies and BofA/Merrill are pleased with management remarks suggesting an average customer's spending grows considerably over time.
- Cantor: "A differentiated pricing model, strong brand and unmatched scale continue to give Alibaba an unfair competitive advantage relative to peers both in and outside China. We believe the company's outsized growth and margin profiles should support higher valuation over time."
- The firm has hiked its FY15 revenue and EPS estimates, albeit while slashing its EBITDA estimate on expectations spending will remain elevated. Alibaba, for its part, doesn't plan to provide guidance.
Tue, Nov. 4, 10:19 AM
- Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) is up 2.7% after beating FQ2 revenue estimates on the back of 54% Y/Y growth - it was driven by a 49% increase in GMV, and more than a 3x increase in mobile monetization rate. EPS was only in-line, as aggressive spending yielded an 890 bps drop in non-GAAP EBITDA margin.
- Yahoo (YHOO +1.3%) is moderately higher following the numbers. Its remaining 384M-share stake in Alibaba has a current pre-tax value of $40.2B. SoftBank's (OTCPK:SFTBF) 797.7M-share stake has a pre-tax value of $83.4B.
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