6 Reasons Zillow Is Still Extremely Overpriced
Jake Huneycutt • 33 Comments
Jake Huneycutt • 33 Comments
Zillow: Misunderstanding Fuels $770 Price Target
Weighing Machine • 26 Comments
Weighing Machine • 26 Comments
Tue, Mar. 22, 9:38 AM
- Declaring a survey for ~470 real estate agents to be positive for Zillow (Z +6.5%, ZG +6.5%), RBC's Mark Mahaney has upgraded the online real estate leader to Outperform, and hiked his target by $13 to $34.
- RBC's survey found online real estate adoption remains significant, Zillow's share among agents is at a record high, agents are most likely to up their spend on Zillow, and that Zillow is strong with agents spending over $500/month on online ads.
- Mahaney adds the NAR's most recent profile of home buyers/sellers showed growing reliance on the Internet by buyers, and that Q1 comScore data indicates Zillow's traffic is up 21% Q/Q and 34% Y/Y (unique visitors stand at 65M).
- Insider buys, a "relatively attractive valuation setup," and a belief "Street estimates have been sufficiently de-risked" are also seen as reasons to be bullish.
Tue, Mar. 22, 9:20 AM
Wed, Mar. 2, 9:46 AM| Wed, Mar. 2, 9:46 AM | 2 Comments
Thu, Feb. 25, 12:31 PM
- After having disclosed earlier this week Technology Crossover Ventures bought (through its Mariner Investor II fund) 700K Zillow Class C shares (Z +2.5%) last Thursday and Friday, director Jay Hoag has disclosed TCV bought another 935K shares on Monday at $20.03.
- TCV/Mariner also owns 375K Zillow Class A shares (ZG +2.8%). Both share classes are moving higher on a quiet morning for equities.
- In other news, Zillow/Trulia rival Zumper is acquiring fellow apartment-listing site PadMapper. Zumper, which allows prospective renters to submit applications through its site, reported having 4M monthly visits as of January.
Tue, Feb. 23, 10:06 AM
- Zillow (Z +9.3%, ZG +7.7%) director/VC Jay Hoag discloses his firm (Technology Crossover Ventures) bought 700K Class C shares (NASDAQ:Z) last Thursday and Friday through its Mariner Investor II fund at prices ranging from $19.49-$20.25. His total purchase price was $13.8M. (source: InsiderInsights.com)
- The vote of confidence comes with the online real estate leader trading far below its 2014 highs (hit around the time the Trulia deal was announced) on a split-adjusted basis. The Class C shares are up 21% since Zillow posted mixed Q4 results and sales guidance on Feb. 11. 2015 EPS was hurt by $8.1M in News Corp. litigation expenses.
Thu, Feb. 11, 5:58 PM
- Zillow (Z, ZG) has guided on its earnings call for Q1 revenue of $174M-$179M, below a $180M consensus. However, 2016 revenue guidance of $805M-$815M is above a $796.8M consensus.
- Top-line performance: Marketplace revenue rose 14% Y/Y to $148.3M, with real estate revenue rising 27% to $136.6M and mortgages revenue 48% to $11.7M. Display ad revenue fell 25% to $21.1M as Zillow continues de-emphasizing display ads.
- Metrics: Agent advertisers totaled 92,366 at the end of Q4, up 48% Y/Y but down 5% Q/Q. Zillow has said it cares less now about agent count than growing revenue from high-ARPA agents. Monthly unique users fell to 123.7M from Q3's 142.1M (seasonality played a role).
- Financials: GAAP costs/expenses totaled $195.7M - $77.8M was spent on sales/marketing, $55.8M on tech and R&D, and $45.9M on G&A. Zillow ended Q4 with $520M in cash and $230M in debt.
- Z -11% after hours to $16.00. ZG -10.8% to $17.10.
- Zillow's Q4 results, earnings release
Thu, Feb. 11, 5:35 PM
Fri, Feb. 5, 12:43 PM
- On a day the Nasdaq is down 2.4%, Internet stocks are seeing outsized losses after LinkedIn (down 41.3%) issued weak Q1/2016 guidance with its Q4 beat.
- The professional social networking leader forecast its corporate hiring solutions business would see slower growth in 2016 (international macro issues were blamed). It also noted display ad sales fell by a high-30s % Y/Y in Q4 amid ongoing secular industry pressures, and reported just 7% Y/Y unique visitor member growth.
- Facebook (FB -5.5%), which soared last week after blowing away Q4 estimates on the back of 57% Y/Y ad revenue growth, is among the casualties. As is Amazon (AMZN -4.9%), which sold off last week after missing Q4 estimates and issuing in-line Q1 sales guidance, is also down sharply. As is Twitter (TWTR -5.3%), which reports in five days and continues trading near post-IPO lows amid growth/engagement concerns.
- Other decliners include Yelp (YELP -7.9%), TripAdvisor (TRIP -6.3%), Expedia (EXPE -6%), LendingClub (LC -8.3%), Wix.com (WIX -6.8%), Wayfair (W -7.6%), Groupon (GRPN -4.9%), Shopify (SHOP -6.3%), and Zillow (Z -6%), as well as ad tech firms Criteo (CRTO -8.9%) and TubeMogul (TUBE -7.6%). The aforementioned companies are generally expected to post Q4 results in the coming weeks.
- Earlier: Enterprise software and security stocks hammered after Tableau/LinkedIn's earnings
Wed, Jan. 20, 1:18 PM
- Like clockwork, high-beta tech stocks continue selling off at a feverish pace as markets nosedive. Today's selloff comes with the Nasdaq down 2.7%, and the S&P 3%. Margin calls are likely a contributing factor.
- Solar stocks, which sold off yesterday even as major indices moved little, are underperforming again as energy stocks get routed once more and oil drops below $27/barrel. Hard-luck SunEdison (SUNE -13.6%) is now close to $2. Also tumbling: Canadian Solar (CSIQ -8.8%), ReneSola (SOL -8.2%), and Yingli (YGE -6.9%).
- Security tech plays FireEye (FEYE -9.3%), Palo Alto Networks (PANW -6.1%), Rapid7 (RPD -11.6%), and Vasco (VDSI -10.5%) aren't faring better - peers Fortinet and Barrcauda were downgraded this morning. Nor are Splunk (SPLK -7.7%) and Tableau (DATA -7.2%), two firms often hyped as big data/analytics plays, or Russian tech firms Yandex (YNDX -6.6%) and Qiwi (QIWI -6.9%), which often sell off when oil prices and the ruble are under pressure.
- Elsewhere in tech, big decliners include Zillow (Z -7.1%), Square (SQ -6.7%), Fitbit (FIT -6.6%), Groupon (GRPN -6.9%), TrueCar (TRUE -7.7%), Pure Storage (PSTG -7.8%), Jive Software (JIVE -7.4%), Shopify (SHOP -7.2%), Ruckus Wireless (RKUS -8%), Renren (RENN -6.8%), Infinera (INFN -6.1%), TripAdvisor (TRIP -6.5%), Ellie Mae (ELLI -6.7%), and Knowles (KN -6.2%).
- Also off sharply: Several large-cap tech stocks, TowerJazz, Synaptics, Adtran
Nov. 4, 2015, 9:15 AM| Nov. 4, 2015, 9:15 AM | 2 Comments
Nov. 3, 2015, 5:31 PM
- Zillow's (Z, ZG) Q3 EPS of $0.07 beat a -$0.03 consensus, and revenue of $176.8M slightly beat a $176.5M consensus. However, the company has guided on its earnings call for Q4 revenue of $165M-$170M, below a $179.1M consensus. Q4 adjusted EBITDA is expected to total $20M-$25M, down from Q3's $29.5M.
- Zillow notes Q4 guidance doesn't include revenue from Market Leader, whose sale was closed at the end of September. Some Q4 analyst estimates might not have been adjusted to account for the sale.
- The online real estate leader does expect 2016 revenue growth to exceed 2015's rate. For the first 9 months of 2015, Zillow's pro forma revenue (adjusts for the Trulia deal) is up 22% Y/Y.
- Top-line performance: Marketplace revenue rose 22% Y/Y in Q3 to $153.2M, while display revenue (ads, hurt by weak industry demand) fell 23% to $30.4M. The display decline is attributed to "continued strategic efforts to reduce display advertising on the company's mobile applications and websites to further promote our Marketplace products."
- Metrics: Agent advertisers fell to 96,965 at the end of Q3 from 101,297 at the end of Q2. Zillow previously stated it's now de-emphasizing agent count, and instead focusing on growing revenue via high-ARPA agents. Monthly unique users averaged 142.1M, up slightly from Q2's 141M.
- Z -7.5% after hours to $27.30. ZG -9.3% to $28.10.
- Q3 results, PR
- Update (6:39PM ET): Zillow tells Seeking Alpha it had found only a small number of Q4 analyst estimates had accounted for the Market Leader sale. Both Z and ZG remain down over 7%.
Nov. 3, 2015, 4:33 PM
- Zillow (NASDAQ:Z): Q3 EPS of $0.07
- Revenue of $176.77M (+99.4% Y/Y)
- Shares +6.44%.
Oct. 21, 2015, 11:00 AM| Oct. 21, 2015, 11:00 AM | 11 Comments
Oct. 8, 2015, 2:17 PM
- Zillow's (ZG +7.4%) Class A shares and (to a lesser extent) its non-voting Class C (Z +3.9%) shares are up strongly on a day the Nasdaq is down 0.6%. The A and C shares are now respectively up 59% and 36% from their 52-week lows.
- No major news has arrives. Zillow did announce this morning over 2/3 of Zillow and Trulia agent listings now stem from direct deals with multiple listing services (MLSs). The company has been busy striking MLS deals this year, in part to offset the termination of Zillow/Trulia's deals with ListHub.
Aug. 24, 2015, 9:19 AM
- Gainers: GAS +29%.
- Losers: VTL -79%. ACI -31%. BZUN -25%. WBAI -23%. JMEI -20%. BTU -17%. MDR -17%. CSIQ -17%. VIPS -16%. FIT -16%. SFUN -15%. LC -15%. PLUG -15%. EXXI -15%. QIHU -14%. MACK -14%. ACHN -14%. KNDI -13%. CYBR -13%. OHGI -13%. Z -13%. TCK -13%. JKS -13%. AVEO -12%. OAS -12%. WLL -12%. MCUR -12%.
Aug. 5, 2015, 9:19 AM
- Gainers: FNJN +60%. BIOC +13%. FSLR +11%. KATE +9%. Z +9%. HRB +8%. OAS +8%. TSEM +8%. PCLN +7%. SLTD +7%. MSI +6%. ATVI +6%. SUPN +6%. LC +6%. CTSH +6%. BBL +6%. SDRL +5%.
- Losers: SALE -33%. OHGI -28%. LL -24%. BOOT -23%. ETSY -20%. TRMB -13%. GLUU -10%. RSO -10%. DIS -9%. NYMT -7%. MEMP -7%. GNW -7%. PWR -7%. CERN -6%. PZZA -6%.
Zillow Group, Inc. provides online real estate information and services. The company was founded by Richard N. Barton and Lloyd D. Frink on July 25, 2014 and is headquartered in Seattle, WA.
Industry: Internet Information Providers
Country: United States
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