Alcoa Inc. (AA)

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  • commenter
    Blair
    Jul 09 02:46 AM
    Dow 30 Price Targets - Too Much Optimism? [view article]
    My put is that the Dow average is going down to the 2002-03 bear market level, say 7500.

    Which stocks are going to be the principal 'droppers' that will cause the above forecast to come true implies those stocks that have not been hit too hard so far.

    If the above assumption is correct, the financial stocks will bottom out price wise in the recent levels.     Reply
  • commenter
    crowdofcheer
    leaders
    Jul 08 04:59 PM
    Alcoa Earnings After the Close [view article]
    so they beat earnings by 2 cents and their YoY qtrly profit is down %20. stock is up %6. is this really great news, or.... ? Reply
  • commenter
    SivBum
    Jul 08 11:12 AM
    Dow 30 Price Targets - Too Much Optimism? [view article]
    Only 3 of the 30 showed marginal gain YTD....and that was last week. Brutal year so far. Reply
  • commenter
    User 211108
    Jul 08 11:01 AM
    10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
    A valuable, thought based opinion from "wildhawk" of which Seeking Alpha needs more. Less of the political opinions filled with rage and loathing from both sides would be useful.

    Seeking Alpha ought to be more or less dedicated to discourse about intelligent and productive investing ideas and thoughts. While it is true that political views are part and parcel of the investing scene and whom the next resident of the White House is will have a lasting effect on the economy many of the views offered are "talk radio" inspired. Seeking Alpha ought to limit, and or temper in an editorial fashion a good portion of the discourse to maintain creditability.

    That having been said I offer this thought of my own. The essential problem of the economy, the debt/credit crisis, housing declines, the sinking dollar, etc., stems from one thing alone, and that is the advent of PEAK OIL. This is not a Republican or Democrat thing, nor is it Detroit's fault. It is OUR fault as a nation that has used energy, cheap energy in a profligate manner (along with the rest of the world) since the beginning of the eighteenth century. We are about five percent of the worlds' population and we use fully twenty five percent of the oil produced to run our economy. With world oil production peaking and then declining within the next few years the world economy will suffer along with the US significantly. Our investing and other thoughts should be focused on cooperative solutions to mitigate the biggest problem humanity has faced. If all of us, Republicans, Democrats, Right, Left, Conservative, Liberal, Evangelical, radio talk show host, or otherwise continue being so divided and unwilling to compromise we are doomed to a radically changed future.     Reply
  • commenter
    Emerald
    Jul 08 10:49 AM
    Dow 30 Price Targets - Too Much Optimism? [view article]
    I guess it depends on your time line. "C" at a target of $23 over the next 12-15 months is out there, but not unbelievable. The largest gains are made by buying near the bottom. I agree that you should never listen to the sell-side analysts. Reply
  • commenter
    JAZ
    Jul 08 06:02 AM
    10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
    The US economy and consumer are in the early stages of a massive de-leveraging; a process that can take multiple years. Raising rates to support the dollar is a card that the Fed just cannot play without taking the US economy into a tailspin. A weak dollar is here to stay Reply
  • commenter
    Brandon
    Jul 08 02:08 AM
    Dow 30 Price Targets - Too Much Optimism? [view article]
    Citibank and these other companies need to figure out how much the crap on their books is worth. That's It. Reply
  • commenter
    THofler
    Jul 08 01:19 AM
    How Models Caused the Credit Crisis [view article]
    A several years ago a famous Berkeley physics prof complained to me that few of the PhD students he encountered were interested in slaving in his lab for a few years because most of them were not interested in a career in physics. They were in a hurry to get to Wall St.

    And before that crew hit the street, there was the crew of physics wash-outs (& wised-ups) that went there.

    Having built a few computer models & seen a great many presentations of others, I'd cynically suggest that the modeler's confidence of the model's applicability to the problem at hand is proportional to the the number of man months or years invested in the model. Even in the area of physical science these models frequently miss major portions of the realities at hand.

    I'd suggest to Max that the assumption of a "normal" market when applying a financial model is invariably a mistake. Maybe someday we will have models that include factors to compensate for a variety of possible market & economic shocks, but so far collapses of the LTCM type seem to be the norm.

    Over reliance on models badly applied, is not the whole problem, but a big contributor. My guess is that the substantial contributors are: a very preferential tax structure for real estate; Greenspan easy money; Greenspan lax regulation of mortgage brokering; bad models applied badly by lenders; grotesquely irresponsible and ignorant ratings agencies; and financial illiteracy about debt in the general population.     Reply
  • commenter
    wildhawk
    Jul 08 12:12 AM
    10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
    When did Seeking Alpha become a political opinion page? And why are so many people anti-Obama? A big part of the problem in this country is the black and white thinking (sorry- no pun intended) that this administration has shoved down all our throats- "you're with us or against us", "if you don't fund the war you're not a patriot" etc. That's part of the reason we're here in the first place. At least Obama is willing to listen and attempt to understand the issues, economic and political, before making a snap judgment and never waivering. Call it pandering or whatever you want, but to paraphrase Keynes on his change of positions: "when the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do sir?" That's just common sense, something the leadership in this country has been sorely lacking for some time.
    Solutions to this mess? Heck if I know, but I do know that a "Manhattan Project" endeavor on alternative energy sources would produce real tangible change and significant energy sources in far less than 50 years- more like 10-15. Look at how far solar has come just in the last few years (I read somewhere that solar panels have increased efficiency 3X in less than 10 years). Or even research on hydrogen or electric cars- heck a decade ago, people were saying we wouldn't see electric cars for 30 years if we were lucky and now we're looking at a strong likelihood of a reasonably affordable ($35k) commercially available electric car in 2010.
    Bottom line is we still live in a great innovative country and can work our way out of this if we put our minds and our money to work in the right places- alternative energy and infrastructure. Stop spending billions on Iraq that could be spent on research and development of new energy and shoring up our sagging infrastructure- bring our money and our focus back home for once.
     Reply
  • commenter
    NEH
    Jul 07 10:57 PM
    Replacement Candidates for David Merkel's Portfolio: From AA to ZZ [view article]
    David, it's nice to hear you are in agreement. Actually, I have been in dry-bulk for a while, and bought NM because they bought a port terminal with grain silos in Uruguay. Its heavily asset-based, even if heavily leveraged, but I favor asset based equities. The Uruguay purchase, and they are keeping the previous owners on-board, is another key factor that really sets NM apart from the other dry-bulk shippers. BTW - I invest only in dry-bulk. Less risk of environmental disasters than tankers.


    On Jul 07 10:04 AM David White wrote:

    > NM is a good bet. It has excellent value. It has an extremely low
    > PE and FPE. It also has an excellent Price to Book value ratio. Further
    > it has both a new fleet in South America (for the river traffic mostly)
    > which is supposed to begin adding 35% to EBITDA beginning in the
    > 4th quarter of this year. It got pushed further downward in the recent
    > market move in that direction, so it is an excellent buy now.     Reply
  • commenter
    sopocistudio
    Jul 07 07:46 PM
    My Website
    10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
    One comment I've seen on a fairly regular basis is releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve into the market to drive down the price of oil. Only 2 things wrong with that idea. 1) The purpose of the reserve is to provide a safety net for miltary and essential/critical needs in times of supply interruption...NOT to influence market prices. 2)The quantity in the reserve is a drop in the bucket, compared to what the US needs on an annual basis, let alone global demand. Releasing the reserves to lower the price of oil in any meaningful fashion would work about as well as Berneke's and Paulson's "jawboning" the dollar up.

    jan     Reply
  • commenter
    MEXX
    Jul 07 04:20 PM
    Dow 30 Price Targets - Too Much Optimism? [view article]
    Who ever listens to analysts for price guidance anyways -in volatile times like today, these guys are just happy they are hanging on to their jobs. Very few if any, are willing to stick their neck out to provide real thought leadership on the direction of the market/industry and real company specific earnings guidance. Reply
  • commenter
    yahoo
    finance
    Jul 07 03:16 PM
    Monday Options Outlook: FRE, FNM, AA, EWZ, JNPR, YHOO, WB, XLF [view article]
    JUST ANOTHER COLUMNIST REPORTING MORE GLOOM AND DOOM !!!!

    I wonder what would happen if all these columnist reported only the GOOD in the market. Could we see the market take all like a son of a gun ??? YOU BETCHA !!!!!     Reply
  • commenter
    captbob
    Jul 07 02:55 PM
    10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
    Read an article about imminent recession---then read comments about oil???
    It's not just oil--It's a nation of consumers over-extended on easy credit, debt over their heads, and inflation pushing them under.
    Even gas at $2.00=50%=1/2 won't save them--or the banks!!
    Back on topic: Pretty good article on recognizable markers on the way to recession. We're 3/4 way down the mountain and the brakes -(more fiat liquidity)-ain't working!!
    Go vote for Obama if you think higher taxes is the Rx for recession!!     Reply
  • commenter
    Matt
    Moscardi
    Jul 07 02:37 PM
    My Website
    How Models Caused the Credit Crisis [view article]
    I disagree with the premise that "models" were the smoking gun of the subprime crisis. The real issue is much more mundane - greedy people and corporations. IndyMac underwriting bogus mortgages to unqualified homeowners smacks of pure greed, not "the model said so." When the loans were repackaged, even then it wasn't "the model," it was a lack of oversight, foresight, and understanding by the eventual purchasers - institutional and retail investors alike - what it was they were buying. Whether by stretching the truth or just plain lying, the end purchaser was unaware of the process, because the middlemen, in this case the Street and the IndyMacs of the world, wanted the quick buck.

    It's the same story all the time. In the end, it will take a massive ideological overhaul of the Street, one that promotes corporate accountability and sustainable business practice over short term gains, to fix it. So really, it will never happen. Every 10 or 20 years this will happen again (see the real estate bust in the 1980s).

    (Here's where I take a moment for shameless self promotion) To that end, I say invest sustainable, green, and socially responsible (see my website). It's not a solution, but at least it's a start, and you can sleep a LITTLE better!     Reply

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