- The whisper number is $1.42, eleven cents ahead of the analysts' estimate.
- Apple has a 71% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 46 of the 65 earnings reports for which we have data).
- The overall average post earnings price move is 'opposite' (beat the whisper number and see weakness, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.
Apple Q4 Earnings: After A Record Quarter, What Next?
- Apple is set to report earnings after-hours today.
- It is expected to report record revenue on the strength of iPhone sales.
- Other key factors are gross margin, lagging iPad sales, the European Commission tax probe and future guidance.
- If the company's expected profit growth disappoints the market, Apple's 16x p/e multiple could take a hit.
Pricing In Q4 - Apple Already Trading At 20% Premium Above Fundamental Value Ratios
- Key value ratios are presently inflated across the board - including price/sales, price/EBIT, price/free-cash-flow, price/earnings, and price/book, ranging from between 19.9% and 29.6%.
- Apple continues to grow, and will likely do so, but constantly - as opposed to exponentially - which does not justify the extreme spikes in the above key value ratio's.
- The stock price could revert back to the mean - or this could be evidence of shifting investor optimism - a tendency towards longer term acceptance of these inflated values.
An Apple Bear's Wonderful Misadventure Analyzing Apple's Prospects
- Apple’s iPhone is experiencing very high demand, which I believe will last through at least the first half of calendar 2015.
- Michael Blair’s Apple analysis cherry picks what I believe are well known and a bit irrelevant data points.
- While going from $600 billion to $1 trillion in market cap isn’t in the cards, higher sales and share buybacks can still increase the share price nicely.
Apple iPad Air 2 The Most Financially Meaningful Launch In Years
- Investors should anticipate meaningful upside in iPad shipment figures from prior years due to the upgrade cycle.
- There's further room to innovate and further differentiate the product category.
- Apple can shrink the product life cycle of the iPad.
- Recent projections by IDC may not be indicative of future tablet shipment growth.
A Better Entry Point For Apple Will Become Available For Patient Investors: Update #2
- I correctly predicted in my first article on 8/2/2014 regarding AAPL, "Even a retest and successful move above 100 will not be sustained for a long time frame".
- I am still bearish in my long-term outlook for AAPL regarding a better entry point. Short-term, anything can happen. Eventually, AAPL will present a better entry point.
- Let's take a look at APPL's estimates for earnings. Will AAPL beat the Whisper numbers?
- As I explained in my prior articles covering AAPL, the $100 price level will be a magnet that continues to pull the price back to that level.
Apple Q4 2014 Preview: Expect Solid iPhone Shipment; Focus Should Be On The Long Term
- AAPL will report Monday after close with consensus expects $1.31 EPS on $39.85b in revenue.
- iPhone shipment expected to be 38m units and 13m iPad shipment.
- Competitive risk, declining innovation curve and lack of leadership in key geographies are long-term concerns.
Forget About Bending iPhones: There Are Better Reasons To Sell Apple Stock
- Bending iPhones are a non-issue.
- Apple Watch and more: evidence that innovation is slowing down for the Cupertino giant.
- Apple stock is still a great investment, but not nearly as great as it once was.
- In late August, we questioned if the iPad Mini and the iPhone Plus would steal business from one another.
- Investors seemed bemused by Thursday's Apple event.
- It's not likely the new iPad is going to solve Apple's iPad problem.
Tech.pinions Podcast: Apple iPads, iMac Retina, Apple Pay
- I'm a bit over allocated with my Apple position in the portfolio and am thinking about cutting a portion of the position.
- A stream of good news hit the wire the past couple of days making me think I should keep the extra allocation in the portfolio.
- The company continues to make the ecosystem a sticky situation, drawing me to looking at a new Apple laptop.
Retirement Strategy: Apple Is Not A Dividend Aristocrat, But Is Worth Adding On This Dip
- The markets are in correction mode, and adding a potential future dividend champion makes sense to me.
- The "Buy The Dips Portfolio" should be adding more shares to at least one stock; why not Apple?
- Far from being a dividend aristocrat, Apple is already in this portfolio, and a wonderful candidate to add shares with its drop in price.
Apple's October Event: Competing On Quality And Price
- Apple's October 16 event highlighted new iPads and Macs, still important components of Apple's revenue.
- The new Retina Display iMac and Mac mini have Ultra HD TV display capability and may help pave the way for UHD content on iTunes, and eventually an Apple television.
- Apple's new iPads are thinner, faster and yes, less expensive than before.
- The new products should help Apple to continue to grow market share in personal computers and arrest sales declines in iPad.
Q4 Will Show Just How Stagnant Apple Earnings Really Are
- Apple reports Q4 Monday.
- Results will likely fall within Apple's guidance since there has been no pre-announcement of anything else.
- If they do, Apple's net income will remain below 2012 levels.
- After a 40% rise in the stock price, stagnant earnings are unlikely to be rewarded by an even higher price.
- Competition will catch up or even pass Apple in 2015 and the inevitable decline should set in.
- Historical trends dictate that we are entering a time where we should see a fairly sizable fluctuation in Apple stock price.
- A Chegg survey found that Apple is losing its cool appeal among high school and college students.
- We aren't sure how this fading coolness will affect Apple stock, but we do not expect big things in the next year.
- Although people disagree by how much, by most people's accounts, Apple is undervalued as a stock.
- I believe this undervaluation is the result of the market attempting to work out what kind of company Apple is: growth, value or hybrid.
- Company profit slowdown in 2012 (which was still sizable by any account) is largely to blame for this uncertainty and stagnation in share price as investors wait for FY2015 guidance.
- Once this dilemma is resolved, share prices will grow, though guidance will determine by how much.
Apple Management Discusses Q2 2013 Results (Webcast)Apr. 23, 2013 • 1 Comment
Today, 6:15 PM
- Though FQ4 iPhone sales beat estimates, iPhone channel inventory is below Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) historical 4-6 week target range, the company disclosed on the CC. Apple is upping its target range to 5-7 weeks, but doesn't expect to reach it in FQ1. (live blogs: BI, WSJ)
- As expected, a mix shift towards the iPhone 6 and the costlier/supply-constrained 6 Plus is boosting iPhone ASPs. "We're selling everything that we make," Tim Cook interjected during a question about product mix.
- iPad channel inventory fell by 500K during FQ4. In spite of the 14% Y/Y drop in iPad revenue, Cook dismisses suggestions the market is saturated, noting over half of sales still go to first-time buyers. He did, however, admit consumers hold onto iPads (less likely to be sold with subsidies/installment plans) longer than they hold onto iPhones.
- CFO Luca Maestri Maestri noted Apple, like many other U.S. companies, is dealing with forex headwinds caused by a strong dollar. He added forex is factored into FQ1 guidance.
- Other details: 1) Apple bought 7 more companies in FQ4 (only 4 are known), bringing the FY14 total to 20. 2) App Store revenue rose 36% Y/Y. 3) Cook asserts Mac market share (previous) is at its highest level since 1995. FQ4 Mac revenue was 25% above iPad revenue. 4) Apple expects to open 25 new stores in FY15, ~75% of which will be outside the U.S.
- AAPL +1.5% AH. FQ4 results, details.
Today, 5:00 PM
- Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) had an FQ4 gross margin of 38%, +100 bps Y/Y and at the high end of a 37%-38% guidance range. FQ1 GM guidance is at 37.5%-38.5%.
- Product line performance: iPhone revenue (56% of total revenue) +21% Y/Y to $23.7B, after growing 9% in FQ3; units +16%. iPad revenue -14% to $5.3B, after falling 8% in FQ3; units -13%. Mac revenue +18% to $6.6B, after rising 13% in FQ3; units +21%.
- iTunes/software/services revenue +8% to $4.6B. Accessories +13% to $1.5B. iPods -28% to $410M.
- Regional performance: Excluding retail, Americas revenue +17% to $16.2B (stronger than in recent quarters); Europe +19% to $9.5B (likewise); Greater China +1% to $5.8B; Japan +5% to $3.5B. Rest of Asia-Pac -3% to $1.9B. Retail +15% to $5.1B.
- Helping margins: iPhone ASP rose to $603 from $561 in FQ3 and $596 in FQ2. iPad ASP fell to $432 from $443 in FQ3 and $465 in FQ2. Mac ASP fell to $1,200 from $1,255 in FQ3 and $1,334 in FQ2.
- GAAP R&D spend +44% Y/Y to $1.69B. SG&A spend +18% to $3.16B.
- $17B was spent on buybacks in FQ4, and $45B over the whole of FY14. Apple ended the quarter with over $155B in cash/investments, and over $35B in long-term debt and commercial paper.
- AAPL +1.2% AH. CC at 5PM ET. FQ4 results, PR.
Today, 4:37 PM
Today, 4:34 PM
- Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): FQ4 EPS of $1.42 beats by $0.11.
- Revenue of $42.12B (+12.4% Y/Y) beats by $2.27B.
- 39.3M iPhones (above expectations), 12.3M iPads (below expectations), 5.5M Macs (above expectations).
- Expects FQ1 revenue of $63.5B-$66.5B, mostly above a $63.52B consensus.
- Shares +0.5% AH.
- Press Release
Today, 2:47 PM
- Spotify is now offering family discounts: While the first family member signing up for its premium service pays the standard $10/month, each additional member pays only $5/month. "This is one of the most asked for features from our audience," says content chief Ken Parks.
- Meanwhile, Re/code reports Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been pushing music labels to agree to price cuts that would allow it to sell an overhauled Beats Music streaming service (previous) for just $5/month. However, the site suspects Apple doesn't think the labels will give in, and considers an $8/month rate a more realistic goal.
- Pandora (P -1.9%) is lower on an up day for tech. Thus far, the company has done a decent job of staving off threats from subscription-based streaming services.
- Spotify, still possibly eying an IPO, had 10M paid subs and 40M active users spread out over 56 markets as of May. Pandora had 3.5M active subs and 76.4M active listeners (mostly in the U.S.) at the end of Q2. Its Q3 report arrives on Thursday.
Yesterday, 5:35 PM
Thu, Oct. 16, 2:33 PM
- Not surprisingly, the iPad Air 2's (AAPL -0.9%) pricing starts at $499 (16GB Wi-Fi). As with the iPhone 6, Apple has doubled storage capacities for higher-tier models; 64GB and 128GB Wi-Fi-only models respectively go for $599 and $699. The original Air now starts at $399.
- Very little time was spent discussing the iPad Mini 3. Moreover, while the Air 2 features (like the iPhone 6) 802.11ac Wi-Fi and an 8MP rear camera, the Mini 3 offers 802.11n Wi-Fi and a 5MP camera.
- The Mini 3's pricing starts at $399, as expected. The Mini 2 (also has a retina display) now starts at $299, and (notably) the original, non-retina Mini is being kept around with a $249 starting price. The price points for the older models could help Apple grab some mid-range share from Android rivals.
- A 27" retina iMac featuring an eye-popping 5210x2880 resolution (67% more pixels than 4K) has been shown off. "It's the world's highest-resolution display," declares VP Phil Schiller. The system is still only 5mm thick at its edges, and its display consumes 30% less power than its predecessor's.
- Retina iMac models run on quad-core Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) Core i5 and i7 CPUs (3.5GHz.-4GHz.), and starts at $2,499. AMD (AMD +1.3%) is supplying a high-end Radeon R9 GPU. The 27" non-retina iMac will start at $1,799, and its 21.5" peer $1,099.
- Apple is counting on its new iPads to spark a sales rebound: iPad revenue fell 8% Y/Y in calendar Q2 amid extended upgrade cycles and share gains for low-end Android tablets.
- Analyst/Apple fan Ben Thompson recently argued the iPad has been hurt by softening developer support relative to the iPhone, along with the popularity of bigger phones and thinner/lighter PCs (such as the MacBook Air).
- Event webcast. Live blogs: The Verge, Engadget
- Update: One more product launch: The Mac Mini has finally been refreshed. The new version goes for $499-$999, and features dual-core Intel Core i5 CPUs.
Thu, Oct. 16, 1:56 PM
- The iPad Air 2 (AAPL -0.6%) is only 6.1mm thick - 18% thinner than the original Air and 12% thinner than the iPhone 6. Official battery life is still at 10 hours.
- As expected, Apple has added a Touch ID fingerprint sensor (supports Apple Pay), and an anti-reflective coating that reduces glare - Apple claims the lowest reflectivity of any tablet. The device runs on an A8X CPU said to respectively deliver 40% and 150% CPU and GPU performance improvements over the Air's A7 processor.
- The Air 2 sports an 8MP rear camera, improved from the Air's 5MP camera. Slo-mo video (120 fps) and burst mode support has been added. The front camera has been updated to include a faster aperture and single-shot HDR support.
- Investors aren't excited; shares have dipped slightly after previously trading near breakeven.
- Event webcast. Live blogs: The Verge, Engadget
Thu, Oct. 16, 1:25 PM
- Apple Pay (AAPL - unchanged) launches on Monday, Tim Cook announces as Apple's iPad event gets underway. He add 500 more banks have given their support to the platform since it was unveiled last month.
- The Apple Watch SDK (WatchKit) will roll out to developers next month ahead of an early-2015 hardware launch; recent reports have suggested a February ETA. Cook trumpets the device's fashion bona fides by noting its appearance on a Vogue China magazine cover.
- OS chief Craig Federighi proclaims a "a flood of applications" have been written in Apple's new Swift programming language. He adds iOS 8.1 (rolling out soon) will bring Apple Pay support, along with a public beta for iCloud Photo Library.
- Federighi also goes over Mac OS X Yosemite's feature set and performance/battery life improvements, as the OS gets set to roll out. 1M+ people have signed up for the public beta.
- iPhone 6 NFC chip supplier NXP (NXPI +3.7%) is trading near the day's highs.
- Event webcast. Live blogs: The Verge, Engadget
Wed, Oct. 15, 8:54 PM
- A hearing over GT Advanced's (NASDAQ:GTAT) request to shut down its sapphire manufacturing ops and keep many details about its Chap. 11 filing sealed that was originally set for today has been pushed back to Oct. 21, the day after Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) FQ4 report.
- GT, Apple, and a committee of creditors agreed to the push-out. Also delayed: A ruling on Apple's objections to GT's attempt to free itself of certain contracts and leases.
- Nonetheless, the day wasn't without fresh drama. Bankruptcy judge Henry Boroff grilled Apple over its extensive secrecy requests, questioning how much proprietary info was actually included in many of the docs it wants kept private. "I've got a foot-high stack of documents, and it can't be that it all must be sealed."
- Boroff also provided a colorful analogy for the dispute between Apple and its would-be supplier. "I’m seeing what looks incredibly like a construction suit, where a homeowner says to the contractor, 'It didn't come out the way I wanted to,' and the contractor says, 'Well, it would have come out that way if you didn't continue to change the specifications.'"
- Previous: GT suggests it could sue Apple
Wed, Oct. 15, 10:55 AM
- Believing the iPhone 6 Plus and higher-capacity iPhone 6 models will drive margin and ASP growth, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has added Apple (AAPL -0.4%) to her Best Ideas list ahead of the tech giant's Monday FQ4 report.
- Huberty, already quite bullish on Apple, notes many sources suggest a large number of consumers are opting for 64GB iPhone 6 and 6 Plus models (unsubsidized U.S. prices of $749 and $849) over cheaper 16GB models. While Apple charges $100 extra for the former, its incremental flash memory cost is a fraction of that figure.
- Likewise, she sees healthy demand for the 6 Plus (apparently quite popular in China), whose incremental manufacturing cost is believed to be a fraction of its $100 premium relative to comparable iPhone 6 models.
- Nonetheless, Huberty's forecast for FQ4 iPhone unit sales is relatively subdued: Citing her firm's Web search sell-through data (often, though not always, accurate), she expects 37M sales, generally in-line with consensus.
- Last month, Stifel predicted strong iPhone 6/6 Plus sales would lead Apple's iPhone ASP to rise to $680 or more in FQ1.
Mon, Oct. 13, 2:36 PM
- China's QQ.com believes iPhone 6/6 Plus (AAPL +0.5%) pre-orders (began on Friday) had topped 20M as of Monday morning Beijing time. The site reports 9.5M pre-orders have been recorded by JD.com (JD -1.5%), with slightly over half for the larger/costlier 6 Plus, and thinks pre-orders from Chinese carriers bring the total sum above 20M.
- QQ.com previously reported iPhone 6 pre-registrations (not the same as an actual order) had hit 4M as of Oct. 3. Those numbers also pointed to strong interest in the 6 Plus, which Apple is reportedly boosting production of.
- For reference, Stifel recently forecast Apple would sell 65.3M iPhones globally in FQ1 (the December quarter). Chinese iPhone 6 sales start on Oct. 17, and FQ4 results are due on Oct. 20.
- Other Apple news: 1) A Walgreens internal memo suggests Apple Pay will launch on Oct. 18. 9to5 Mac reports Apple has "begun preparing" for Apple Pay's launch by training its own store employees and working with retail partners. 2) In his latest scoop, Re/code's John Paczkowski states a retina MacBook Air won't be unveiled at Apple's Oct. 16 iPad event. He does expect retina iMacs and OS X Yosemite.
Sun, Oct. 12, 2:16 PM
- In a test involving thousands of queries on various subjects, Stone Temple Consulting found Google Now (NASDAQ:GOOG) managed to "completely answer" a question 88% of the time, a rate well above the 53% posted by Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) Siri and the 40% delivered by Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) Cortana.
- In addition, Now showed "enhanced results" (results featuring some kind of knowledge box/panel or structured data) 58% of the time; Siri did so 29% of the time, and Cortana 20%.
- Stone Temple was also impressed with Now's ability to return complementary data and detailed results: A query of "Burj Khalifa height" returned (in addition to the skyscraper's height) the heights of various other buildings, and a query of "becoming a firefighter" returned step-by-step instructions from FireScience.org.
- Now, which comes built into Google's version of Android and is available on iOS through the (well-downloaded) Google search app, both strengthens Google's mobile search position, and (to the extent the search app is used instead of Mobile Safari on iOS) lowers the company's search traffic acquisition payments to Apple.
- It also could be a key differentiator for Google in the realm of wearables, where time and location-sensitive push notifications are viewed as a killer app. The recently-launched Android Wear platform features tight Google Now integration.
Fri, Oct. 10, 3:49 PM
- "GT believes that it has many claims against Apple arising out of its business relationship with Apple (AAPL - unchanged)," reads a GT Advanced (GTAT -38.7%) bankruptcy court filing.
- The company has confirmed it's closing down the Mesa, AZ plant where it has been producing sapphire for Apple, and cutting 890 related jobs. GT claims it's losing $1M/day at the operations it plans to close. A hearing on GT's motion for permission to close the plant is set for Oct. 15.
- GT's decision suggests Apple will have to turn to third parties to obtain the sapphire needed for the two Apple Watch models featuring sapphire cover glass. A recent Taiwanese media report stated Apple was aiming to launch the Apple Watch in February, and that supplies are constrained by sapphire output.
- The apparent threat to sue comes as crucial details about GT's bankruptcy filing remain sealed due to a confidentially agreement (almost certainly with Apple) said to carry a penalty of $50M per violation.
- Apple is near breakeven in spite of a 2.2% Nasdaq drop.
Thu, Oct. 9, 9:37 AM
- While Carl Icahn pounds the table for Apple (AAPL +1%) and Apple buybacks once more, Oppenheimer's Andrew Uerkwitz has upgraded shares to Outperform, and set a $115 target.
- Uerkwitz: "We believe iPhone 6 and 6 Plus combined will be the best selling iPhone generation to-date as iOS 8 and larger displays draw much broader consumer appeal than before." He expects new iPhone 6/iOS 8 features such as Apple Pay, HealthKit, HomeKit, and deeper iOS/Mac OS integration boosting "user stickiness."
- The upgrade follows a bullish coverage launch from BofA/Merrill, and a Deutsche downgrade.
- Meanwhile, the WSJ reports strong iPhone 6 demand has caused Apple suppliers to push back mass-production of a 12.9" iPad to early 2015 from December. "The output of the 5.5-inch iPhone 6 Plus remains unsatisfactory," says one source. Digitimes recently reported Apple was shifting production from the standard iPhone 6 to the higher-ASP, supply-constrained 6 Plus.
- Icahn's $203/share Apple target assumes a valuation of 19x FY15E EPS exc. net cash. He respectively forecasts 44%, 30%, and 30% earnings growth and 25%, 21%, and 21% revenue growth for the next 3 years (well above consensus estimates) on the back of "significant" high-end smartphone share gains.
- Notably, Icahn thinks Apple can sell 72.5M watches in FY17 at a steep ASP of $450. He also says (albeit while cautioning it might never happen) he has "good enough reason to expect" Apple will release a 4K TV set in FY16, and predicts 25M units will be sold in FY17 at a $1,500 ASP.
Thu, Oct. 9, 8:50 AM| 58 Comments
AAPL vs. ETF Alternatives
Apple Inc designs, manufactures, and markets personal computers, mobile communication devices, media devices personal computers, and portable digital music players, and sells various related software, services, peripherals and networking solutions.
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