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Apple Inc.

5/20/2013, 4:48 AM ET

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Saturday, May 18, 6:23 PM 32% of Q1 U.S. smartphone sales involved prepaid phones, up from 21% a year ago, says NPD. That trend could spell trouble for AT&T (T) and Verizon Wireless (VZ, VOD), whose recent growth has been heavily tied to selling costly postpaid data plans. With 72% and 61% of the carriers' postpaid bases now respectively on smartphones, they face pressure to gain prepaid buyers without cannibalizing postpaid subs. Cannibalization fears have led AT&T and Verizon to make their prepaid plans 3G-only; Sprint (S) and T-Mobile (TMUS) offer 4G. A mix shift towards unsubsidized prepaid phones could also be a challenge for Apple (AAPL), estimated to have just 8% of the Q1 U.S. prepaid smartphone market (though that's up 4x Y/Y). 15 Comments [Tech]
Saturday, May 18, 11:57 AM "There are only four sources of high-quality maps," Google, Waze, Navteq, and TomTom (TMOAF.PK), says Rolfe Winkler, and given Facebook's rumored $1B acquisition of Waze, TomTom may become an attractive takeover target for the likes of Apple (AAPL) and others who, while able to drive a hard bargain on map licensing fees, may prefer to bid for the Netherlands-based company rather than worry that a rival will acquire it. TomTom trades at an EV/EBITDA ratio of just 6x. (From December: Rabobank puts AAPL/TomTom odds at 30%) 31 Comments [Tech, M&A]
Friday, May 17, 4:34 PM iRadio (AAPL) is "still bogged down in licensing talks," music industry sources tell The Verge's Greg Sandoval. In addition to Sony (already reported to have rejected Apple's licensing terms), BMG is said to be holding out for a better deal; one has reportedly been signed with Universal. Apple's interest in offering on-demand options not found on Pandora (P) and other Web radio services has reportedly complicated talks. Past reports stated Apple is aiming for a summer launch. 14 Comments [Tech]
Thursday, May 16, 6:50 PM Apple (AAPL) roundup: 1) Tim Cook is set to testify before Congress during a hearing about corporate offshore cash. He's defending Apple in advance, and says the company will offer tax reform proposals. 2) Though a number of big hedge funds pared or unwound their Apple positions in Q1, the number of "top-tier" funds with positions held steady at 148, per Insider Monkey's analysis. 3) A couple of intriguing Apple patent applications: one for an iPhone-based e-wallet with transaction-specific "smart menus," and one for a large-display touch sensor panel meant to improve response times. 17 Comments [Tech]
Wednesday, May 15, 6:08 PM App store downloads have topped 50B, Apple (AAPL) boasts. The announcement comes 14 months after downloads hit 25B. Google announced earlier today Play downloads have passed 48B and totaled 2.5B last month. ABI estimated in March Apple's 2013 App Store revenue (exc. payouts) would be near $4.9B. Also: Susquehanna has started coverage with a Hold and $480 PT: the firm thinks a bigger iPhone is crucial (it doesn't expect one at least until Q1 2014), and worries iPad sales could miss consensus. (earlier) 18 Comments [Tech]
Wednesday, May 15, 5:53 PM David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital took a 4.9% stake in Oil States International (OIS), a company he declared a target for shareholder activism target last week; Greenlight now ranks as the no. 5 shareholder in OIS. The fund also boosted stakes in Apple (AAPL) to ~2.4M shares from 1.3M (earlier) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) to 51.8M shares, more than 10% of shares out. New stakes: HES, SPR, GMCR, IACI. 8 Comments [Energy, Tech]
Wednesday, May 15, 3:40 PM More from Gundlach: Not concerned about inflation, he calls TIPS (TIP) "pretty bad" investments and says he'll be a buyer if the 10-year (TLT) yield bounces back to 2% (off 3 bps today to 1.94%). As for the inevitable Apple (AAPL -3.3%) question - he prefers the common stock to the just-issued bonds. Warren Buffett says he prays for stocks he owns to go down in price - it allows him and company repurchase programs to buy at better prices. Is Apple putting money to work the last couple of days? 15 Comments [Tech]
Wednesday, May 15, 2:50 PM Apple (AAPL -4.2%) roundup: Tiger Global joined the unrelated Tiger Management in selling Apple shares in Q1, lowering its stake to 260K shares from a prior 1.05M (13F). 2) According to the iRumor mill's latest updates, the retina iPad Mini will have the same resolution (2048x1536) and processor (A6X) as the retina 4th-gen iPad; the iPhone 5S will replace the tradition home button with a touch-sensitive sapphire button (a positive for GTAT); and the iPhone 5S will have an improved camera to go with a fingerprint sensor. 3) The DOJ accuses Apple of being the ring-master in an e-book price-fixing scheme (previous); Apple calls the accusation "absurd." 4) Joe Weisenthal observes Apple's price movements have correlated some with gold's. 21 Comments [Tech, On the Move]
Wednesday, May 15, 9:30 AM Julian Robertson's Tiger Management unloaded the 42K Apple (AAPL) shares the firm still had going into Q1. Tiger, which has owned Apple for years, had pared its stake from 101K in Q4. On the other hand, Tiger initiated positions in Dunkin' Brands (DNKN - 546K shares), Monsanto (MON - 192K), McGraw Hill (MHP - 408K), and H&R Block (HRB - 849K). AAPL -1.1%. (13F) (Q4 hedge fund sales) 26 Comments [Tech]
Tuesday, May 14, 2:36 PM Apple (AAPL -2.5%) has dived over the last 30 minutes of trading on heavy volume, without any news to explain the move. The decline comes with the NASDAQ still up 0.5% on the day. 74 Comments [Tech, On the Move, Breaking News]
Tuesday, May 14, 8:22 AM More Tepper: Turning to individual ideas, he says Citigroup (C) has become one of his biggest positions. On Apple (AAPL): If the company doesn't have something "revolutionary" coming, it better do something "evolutionary" - bigger screen, cheap iPhone. If we don't see anything by September, then it's "Houston we got a problem," and Tepper hopes he's quicker on the sell button than everybody else. 7 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Monday, May 13, 6:30 PM Apple (AAPL) roundup: 1) Jefferies' Peter Misek, fairly plugged in to supply chain movements, thinks June quarter iPad build plans have been raised to 20M-25M, and that iPhone build plans stand at 25M-30M. 2H build order pickups are forecast for both as new hardware launches. 2) Brian White's Apple Monitor (tracks supplier sales) also indicates stabilizing orders - April sales rose 1% M/M, slightly better than a -1% historical average (possibly good news for CRUS). 3) T-Mobile USA (TMUS) has raised the down payment for a 16GB iPhone 5 by $50 to $149, bringing the total 24-month cost to $630. 2 Comments [Tech]
Friday, May 10, 6:25 PM Apple (AAPL -0.8%) roundup: 1) Gene Munster fires up his spreadsheet and concludes the odds of Apple's gross margin (37.5% in FQ2) falling below 30% are close to nil. He thinks GM would still be 32% even if a cheaper iPhone cannibalized 50% of regular iPhone sales and had only a 15% GM, and a TV with a 10% GM arrived. 2) The USPTO has rejected more Apple patent claims (previous). This time, they involve a patent for showing translucent images. Apple will almost certainly appeal. 3) A Strategy Analytics survey found 4.5" was the most preferred smartphone display size in 2H12. Moreover, a majority of respondents "indicated that they preferred prototypes that have a larger screen than their current phone." 13 Comments [Tech]
Friday, May 10, 12:52 AM "Our thesis is that AAPL has a terrific operating platform, engendering a loyal, sticky and growing customer base that will make repeated purchases ... Unfortunately, there have been a series of disappointments," writes David Einhorn in Greenlight Capital's Q1 letter, defending his bullishness on Apple (AAPL) after a 17% Q1 drop. He also defends his lightning-rod efforts to get Apple to remove Prop. 2 and change its capital structure. Vodafone (VOD - 21% Q1 gain) is another name Einhorn remains bullish on, believing "substantial value" could still be unlocked if a Verizon Wireless deal happens, and speculating AT&T might buy what's left of the carrier. (previous) 12 Comments [Tech, Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, May 8, 12:53 PM More on Morgan Stanley/Apple: Huberty claims iPhone 5 shipments are now "on track to meet carrier volume expectations" following a slow start. She also thinks iPhone 4 price cuts could boost near-term demand (will margins take a hit?). Apple has been offering iPhone 4 promotions in India and other major emerging markets, in order to woo buyers who can't afford its regular unsubsidized price ($485 in India). In-line with many other reports, Huberty expects the iPhone 5S to launch around September, and a cheaper iPhone to arrive. 11 Comments [Tech]
Wednesday, May 8, 12:40 PM The Chinese government is expected to issue 4G TD-LTE licenses by year's end, writes Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty in a bullish note on Apple (AAPL +1.2%). The licenses could pave the way for China Mobile (CHL), which has 700M+ subs and is spending $6.75B this year on its TD-LTE network (still in trial mode), to begin selling the iPhone. One potential roadblock: China Unicom (CHU) and China Telecom (CHA) want the government to take its time in issuing TD-LTE licenses. CHA wants to delay its 4G capex, and both carriers are supporting the FDD-LTE standard (far more popular outside of China). (AAPL/CHL agreement) 6 Comments [Tech]

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