ABN Amro Holding N.V. ADR (ABN)
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ABN Forum Topics
- All Comments on ABN
- General Discussion on ABN
- Moody's Latest Blows Satire Models' Circuits [view article]
- The Ins and Outs of Terror-Free Investing [view article]
- RBS Consortium to Assume Control of ABN Amro [view article]
- RBS Consortium Doubles Stake in ABN Amro [view article]
- A Take On What's Ailing The Markets [view article]
- The 'Plunge Protection Team' Working Overtime: A Play-By-Play [view article]
- RBS Consortium Ups Cash Ante for ABN Amro [view article]
- Dutch Supreme Court: ABN Amro Can Proceed with LaSalle Sale [view article]
- ABN Amro Agrees to Sell Itself to Barclays for $91 Billion [view article]
loading ...Recent ABN Articles
- Moody's Latest Blows Satire Models' Circuits
- The Best and Worst Bank Deals (or not) of 2007
- American Tissue Files $1.1B Suit Against BoA, ABN Amro, LaSalle
- Tweedy, Browne: Selling Korea Electric, Pfizer; Buying a Japanese Smallcap
- PowerHouse Week for Economic Calendar
- Basel II: Do Big Banks Need More Capital?
- RBS Consortium to Assume Control of ABN Amro
- RBS Must Now Justify ABN Amro Purchase - Bloomberg
- Winner of the Day: Santander
- ABN Amro Shareholders Expected to Approve Consortium Takeover On Friday - WSJ
- Full List of Articles »
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Moody's Latest Blows Satire Models' Circuits [view article]
It would not surprise me to see legal action against Moody's. They knew about the mistake but failed to correct it. Some may have lost 90% of their investment. It just so happens that maintaining Aaa ratings was financially beneficial to Moody's. Smacks of constructive fraud, even if they weren't actually selling securities. A difficult case but ...It would be outrageous if the marketplace allowed Moody's to continue doing business, at the very least. Outrageous. Reply
Moody's Latest Blows Satire Models' Circuits [view article]
"Oops. We misplaced a couple of zeros. Real Estate may not only go up, evidently. We are downgrading Ottoman debt." People are going to get moody. ReplyEditors
General Discussion on ABN
Is this a buy or a sell? ReplyThe Ins and Outs of Terror-Free Investing [view article]
Mr. Potato Head,You view is similar to mine as expressed in a follow-up article:
www.qvmgroup.com/inves.../
Richard Shaw
Reply
The Ins and Outs of Terror-Free Investing [view article]
Mr. ShawTerror-free investing as a national policy might or might not work. The unilateral decisions of the US haven't worked out very well e are the best electronics designed and manufactured? Not in our clately, but lets put that aside.
Who decides what is a terror state? Could China be on that list because of its policies in Tibet? What about Russia and the disappearance of its citizens? What about the US in Iraq and Afghanistan; aren't we terrorizing part of their populations? Is the decision made by someone stuck at a desk in the corner who's name and character are unknown? Maybe we could make it with decisions of congress?
If everything goes OK, who moves in when we move out? The French, Russia, China? How about Venezuela? Maybe North Korea?
Wouldn't it be a welcome change to see North Koreans helping out Pakistani Citizens with all their nuclear needs?
The economic and political power of the US is dwindling as other countries of the world move toward the center stage. Where are the fastest grown economies? Which countries are graduating the most engineers, scientists, and business majors? Where are the best and newest examples of architecture? Not in our country.
For terror free investing to work on a global scale would require the combined efforts of several independent nations. The US will need to find a new attitude of pragmatism and co-operation as its influence diminishes over the coming decades.
However, everything else aside, the idea has merit. On an individual basis, or perhaps dedicated "terror free" fund, we could give it a try.
Mr Potato Head Reply
RBS Consortium to Assume Control of ABN Amro [view article]
From an HR point of view, I think this transition will be smoother than people think www.newsvisual.com/new... . From a technological point of view, I've heard it could be a bit of headache. The next 45 days should be smoother than the 45 days after that. ReplyRBS Consortium Doubles Stake in ABN Amro [view article]
This is not surprising given that RBS and ABN Amro share such strong corporate connections (see article and Knowledge Map from NewsVisual www.newsvisual.com/new... ). Although this deal seemed a bit shakey at times, due to the connections I always thought that in the end it would go through. ReplyManheim
A Take On What's Ailing The Markets [view article]
The explanation is pretty good; the trances work like a set of waterfalls - if the top pool (tranche) get filled, the next one will start filling as well. The bottom trances get now money before the tyop ones are affected at all. (In a typical deal. Of course, deals can be set up any way the participants want, but CDOs typically try to give all of the risk and reward to the lower tranches in order to sell off the top tranches to super risk averse investors like Insurance companies and Banks.)The other issue, (not quite as big but ignored because it is complex) is that everyone assumed that there was low correlation between defaults - if Bob in Idaho defaulted, that would mean very little about the likelyhood of Sam in New York doing so. Generally, this is true - peoples financial situations are complex, and unless there is a general problem with the market, the risks are lowly correlated, and everyone is fine - very few people on average will default. The oppsite side of the coin is that when something does go wrong in the market, like a recession, which the doomsayers are particular keen on right now, many people default at the same time, for the same reason - the economy starts tanking, or the interest rates go up pulling peoples floating rate morgages with it, or anything similar.
The higher tranches of a CDO are essentially short correlation - they bet that correlation is low, becuase the higher the correlation is, the more likelty they get hit - despite the low likelyhood of an event! For instance, the extreme case: if all morgages were perfectly correlated, than the tranches all have the same value, because the CDO is either going to pay out in full, or not at all. This is because perfect correlation means that everyone will either default, or not, together. More likely, however, is that correlations i a .3 instead of .03, and the highest tranche investors get hit even on their nicely rated, AAA "safe" CDO tranche. This upsets the market, since we want people who plan to have no risk to actually have no risk. Reply
A Take On What's Ailing The Markets [view article]
Sounds unfair, doesn't it? Well, the taxes that we ants pay to bail out the grasshoppers are likely a bargain compared to the consequences of total market failure. Two weeks ago, markets reacted strongly to a minor player in money markets suspending redemptions in a couple of smallish funds. Can you imagine what kind of chaos would ensue if several major money market funds broke the buck, or if banks, lacking access to the Fed's (tax-subsidized) discount window, seized up and failed? If money market funds aren't safe and banks aren't safe, perhaps currency itself is not safe. Then what? (Hint: Hey, I'll trade you some gasoline for that can-opener).No, I'll pay my taxes thanks. And I'd still rather be an ant than a grasshopper. With the savings I've accumulated (that taxpayers have helped keep "safe" even during market turmoil), I will buy up the cheap assets of those suddenly under the yokes of their creditors. Reply
buyer
A Take On What's Ailing The Markets [view article]
Personally I always wanted to sleep nights so, 30 years ago we rented until we had the 20% required for a downpayment {it took several years} Since that time through the ups and downs of the housing market {every 10 to 12 years} we have never lost a home through a forced sale {despite being unemployed on several occasions} and have always made money on the sale despite relocating for job reasons on several occasions. As adults we are all responsible for our own decisions and the consequences of those decisions so if you get a no doc., no down payment teaser rate on a home you cannnot really afford you have no one else but youself to blame if things do not workout. Why should the taxes of those of us who were thrifty and worked hard to save a downpayment be used to bail out those who made bad decisions? ReplyKoppenheffer
A Take On What's Ailing The Markets [view article]
I'm no expert, but from what I understand the interest and principal that comes in from all of the loans in the entire securitization are pooled. Then the tranches get paid from top to bottom, so the top tranche gets paid first and shortfalls end up hurting the bottom tranches because they get paid last. In other words, until defaults reach a certain threshold, the top tranches aren't touched.Securitizations are also often over-collateralized so that they have some cushion against higher than expected losses.
One of the big problems with the higher defaults is that even if the higher tranches haven't been touched, they become incrementally more risky as defaults eat away at the lower tranches. So even though you theoretically have not lost any of your principle or the interest due, you probably won't be able to get face value if you try to sell in the open market.
Hope this helps,
AvgJoe Reply
A Take On What's Ailing The Markets [view article]
Does anyone know how the protection on these loan packages work? When foreclosure occurs, does it count toward the whole package (i.e., all the tranches) or count only on the specific tranch that the deafult loan belong to.If it counts toward all the tranches, then the top tranch will be impaired if there are enough individual loans in the lower tranch go bad. Reply
The 'Plunge Protection Team' Working Overtime: A Play-By-Play [view article]
Thanks to <strong>crataylo... for the link to the Robert Bell editorial. While it was obviously slanted politically (what are the odds that the next Democratic president will revoke Executive Order 12631 and decommission the PPT?), the information led me down some interesting paths. One thing that bothers me: I could find nothing online to corroborate Bell's contention that the Contract Administration Services (CAS) of the Defense Contract Management Agency could do anything with its power to permit price premiums on DOD contracts to cover pension fund losses that would operate in the short term to prop up securities markets.In fact few of Bell's suggested intervention paths seem suited to the short term, although it is barely conceivable that the PPT could organize a conspiracy to repatriate foreign profits under the "American Jobs Creation Act" and trigger one or more takeover bids on their signal.
On the other hand, the Fed's Permanent Open Market Operations:
www.newyorkfed.org/mar... Note link on page: "Show last 10 Operations"
Can apparently have a profound short-term effect. See Michael Bolser's "Repurchase Agreements and The Dow" (2003):
web.archive.org/web/20...
Bolser writes:
"There were four closely spaced Permanent Open Market Operations just prior to the 1,000-point mid-March [2003 -R] DOW launch. In addition, there was another POMO on March 13th of $710 Million coupled with a net TOMO injection of $3.25 Billion which resulted in a 303 point DOW gain on that day."
Add to that the Fed's Temporary Open Market Operations:
www.newyorkfed.org/mar...
and you have something a trader ought to watch very closely. Heres what the Fed says on their POMA page: "Monetary policy can be implemented through outright purchases or sales of securities, which permanently changes the size of the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio."
I suppose you can set some financial news services to automatically tell you when the Fed acts on
the POMA or you may as well check it daily while you check the TOMA page, since that does show new operations daily. Now all I need is help charting the history data of these operations and see if they are as good predictors of market moves as Bolser suggests they were in 2003.
On the other hand, if it is truly a conspiracy of the PPT and their Wall Street friends, why would they publish data that tips their hand? That's not entirely a rhetorical question, but as I indicated, I haven't back tested the hypothesis that the Fed data is predictive. Reply
The 'Plunge Protection Team' Working Overtime: A Play-By-Play [view article]
if the recent intervention is successful in preventing nature taking it`s course...6 months from now as the inflation reality seeps in we, as human beings, may be quoting Hanks perfect match in all this......oops we did it again!
Great analysis.
see japaninvestor.com for a perspective from Japan and some hints from a country thats possibly been here before. Reply
ing
The 'Plunge Protection Team' Working Overtime: A Play-By-Play [view article]
business as usual, Hong Kong government did the same in the asia crisis of 1998 and HK was the only south east asian economy undamaged by the collapse of currencies, well, malaysia closed the capital account and succeeded too, what do you prefer? when blind speculation is in command governments must act, at least in the short term...take the other extreme and you have Chile in 1982, no gov intervention in the market, GDP fell 14%, main banks broke, currency 300% down and central bank still in red 25 years later...good job Gary Reply