Tue, May 19, 5:57 PM
- Though it beat FQ1 estimates, Autodesk's (NASDAQ:ADSK) billings growth slowed sharply to 3% Y/Y (8% exc. forex) from FQ4's 13% (20% exc. forex), and trailed revenue growth of 9% (13% exc. forex).
- In addition, the company is guiding for FQ2 revenue of $600M-$620M and EPS of $0.14-$0.19, below a consensus of $650M and $0.32. FY16 (ends Jan. '16) revenue and billings growth guidance have both been cut by 1% to 2%-4%, and FY16 EPS guidance by $0.10 to $0.95-$1.10; consensus is for 4.5% revenue growth and EPS of $1.17. Autodesk blames a strong dollar and "unevenness" in macro conditions for the guidance cuts.
- Subscriptions: 95K PC software, maintenance, and cloud subscriptions were added in FQ1, down slightly from FQ4's 100K and bringing the total base to 2.33M. FY16 subscription add guidance of 375K-425K is reiterated. Autodesk plans to "transition the vast majority of our offerings to subscription" over the next 2 years. Subscription growth helped the deferred revenue balance rise 20% Y/Y to $1.15B.
- Business performance: 51% of revenue came from licenses, and 49% from subscriptions. Architecture, engineering, & construction revenue +21% Y/Y to $237M; manufacturing +25% to $185M; platform solutions/emerging businesses -13% to $185M; media/entertainment +6% to $40M. Americas revenue +19%, EMEA +9%, Asia-Pac -3%.
- Financials: Operating expenses (non-GAAP) rose 12% Y/Y to $477M - sales/marketing spend totaled $232.2M, R&D $176.9M, and G&A $67.9M. $95.4M was spent to buy back 1.6M shares. Autodesk ended FQ1 with $1.18B in cash, and $747M in notes payable.
- Autodesk has fallen to $56.33 AH. Some bad news was priced in.
- FQ1 results, PR
Tue, May 19, 5:40 PM
Thu, Apr. 30, 11:32 AM
- Stating checks indicate 50% of Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) resellers are missing their license sales expectations, OTR Global has downgraded the CAD/CAM software giant to Mixed from Positive.
- Autodesk's FQ1 report is expected to arrive next month. Shares rallied in late February in response to the company's FQ4 beat and strong subscriber adds, but are now below pre-earnings levels.
Thu, Feb. 26, 5:42 PM
- Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) added 100K PC software, maintenance, and cloud software subscriptions in FQ4, bringing its total subscriber base to 2.23M; the Shotgun Software acquisition boosted sub adds by 17K.
- For the whole of FY15, Autodesk added 385K subs, topping prior guidance of 325K-375K. The company expects to add 375K-425K in FY16 (ends Jan. '16).
- FQ1 revenue guidance of $625M-$645M is mostly above a $627.5M consensus, and FY16 revenue growth guidance 3%-5% is in-line with a 4% consensus. With near-term EPS affected by aggressive spending and the shift towards subscription revenue from licenses, FQ1 and FY16 EPS guidance of $0.25-$0.30 and $1.05-$1.20 is below consensus estimates of $0.32 and $1.32. FY16 billings growth guidance is also at 3%-5%.
- Subscription revenue rose 17% Y/Y in FQ4 to $310.3M, and license/other revenue 10% to $310.3M. Subscription growth led the deferred revenue balance to rise 28% to $1.16B.
- Segment performance: Architecture, Engineering, & Construction revenue +24% to $242M; manufacturing +23% to $190M; platform solutions/emerging businesses -4% to $189M; media/entertainment +5% to $43M.
- Geographic performance: Americas revenue +15% to $238M. EMEA +19% to $273M. Asia-Pac +2% to $154M. Not surprisingly, EMEA and Asia-Pac sales were hurt by forex.
- Operating expenses rose 22% Y/Y to $505.5M. 1.1M shares were repurchased in FQ4, and 6.9M over the whole of FY15.
- ADSK +4% AH to $63.45, making new highs along the way.
- FQ4 results, PR
Nov. 20, 2014, 5:42 PM
Nov. 20, 2014, 4:46 PM
- Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) now expects FY15 (ends Jan. '15) billings growth of 15%-17% (above a prior 10%-12%) net subscriber adds of 325K-375K (above a prior 200K-250K).
- With heavy spending and a mix shift towards subscriptions (leads more revenue to be deferred) weighing on near-term results, FQ4 guidance is mixed: Revenue of $640M-$655M and EPS of $0.22-$0.25 vs. a consensus of $635.5M and $0.30.
- Subscriber figures have been boosted by a decision to begin including Delcam subs in its count: Delcam accounted for 25K of the company's 121K FQ3 subscriber adds. The total base was at 2.13M at quarter's end.
- Subscription revenue +15% Y/Y to $297.5M; license/other revenue +8% to $320.5M. The deferred revenue balance rose 31% to $1.01B.
- GAAP opex rose 23% Y/Y to $517.4M, with big increases in both sales/marketing and R&D spend. Nonetheless, op. cash flow rose 50% Y/Y to $136M. 1.9M shares were repurchased.
- FQ3 results, PR
Nov. 20, 2014, 4:02 PM
Nov. 20, 2014, 2:42 PM
- Jefferies' Jason North has slashed his 3D Systems (DDD -1.8%) target by $4 to $42, albeit while reiterating Buy. Citing execution concerns caused by the company's recent woes, he now assigns 3D a 2016E EV/sales multiple (3.5x) that's 20% below that of peers vs. a prior 10%.
- Meanwhile, North suggests 3D printer/platform launches from the likes of H-P, Autodesk (ADSK -0.9%), and IPG Photonics (IPGP +1.7%) pose challenges for established vendors, albeit not immediately. "After speaking to most of them, we think they could grow to become major 3D printing players but see little overall impact for the next two years."
- North observes Autodesk wants its open-source Spark 3D printing software platform to become an industry standard. However, he sees it mostly being used in low-end devices initially. The CAD software giant's FQ3 report arrives after the bell.
- IPG, currently a top supplier of lasers for metal 3D printers, is working on a powder-feed printer for creating large parts. North doesn't expect a launch before 2017.
- 3D printing stocks sold off last month after H-P unveiled its Multi Jet Fusion 3D printing tech; broad availability isn't expected until 2016. At the time, UBS argued 3D Systems is more at risk than Stratasys (SSYS -1.3%), given H-P's process is "somewhat like 3D Systems' Z Corp binder jetting MJM process more than Stratasys’ Polyjet."
Oct. 2, 2014, 10:01 AM
- Citi, Credit Suisse, Cowen, and Morgan Stanley have upgraded Autodesk (ADSK +4.1%) following its investor day. Shares are making fresh highs.
- The main catalyst: Autodesk disclosed it will stop selling up-front licenses in 12-24 months to further migrate its base to cloud/subscription-based services. Adobe made a similar move last year (in part to combat piracy), and the results have been solid thus far. Autodesk had 1.94M subscribers at the end of July, and has guided for 200K-250K FY15 subscriber adds.
- Credit Suisse, which has also upped its target by $20 to $70: "We believe that several significant changes to its business model will result in meaningful long-term upside to revenue (at limited incremental cost) and, therefore, operating profitability that is not reflected in consensus estimates or the stock's valuation."
- Autodesk also guided for a 12% billings CAGR from FY14-18, and that its value/account and subscriptions would respectively rise 20% and 50% over this time. The company hopes to get over 70% of its revenue from recurring streams by FY18, and to grow its op. margin to 30%. FY15 op. margin guidance is at 15%-16%.
- Investor day slides
- Yesterday: Autodesk names CFO, reiterates FY15 guidance
Aug. 15, 2014, 1:27 PM
- Up sharply at first in response to its FQ2 beat and FY15 guidance hike, Autodesk (ADSK -4.6%) has reversed course. Volume is already over 5x the daily average.
- Citi, which is reiterating a Sell, notes license revenue growth is being fueled by upgrades rather than new licenses, as customers take advantage of a promotion that ends in FY15. It also isn't impressed with Autodesk's (raised) guidance for 200K-250K FY15 subscriber adds, given it added ~250K in FY13 with less help from promotions.
- On the other hand, RBC (Outperform) calls Autodesk's numbers "very strong," and thinks improving macro conditions are helping. It admits FY16 sub growth remains a question mark, but argues new maintenance adds, cloud growth, and the potential ending of perpetual license sales can provide a boost.
- Pac Crest (Outperform) is upbeat: It observes FQ2 sub adds of 74K blew away expectations of 32K, and is pleased with CC remarks (transcript) indicating Autodesk's cloud offerings are reeling in new customers, and that the company sees as much as a 20% increase in total contract value when existing customers migrate to the cloud.
Aug. 14, 2014, 5:35 PM
Aug. 14, 2014, 4:58 PM
- Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) expects FQ3 revenue of $590M-$605M and EPS of $0.17-$0.23 vs. a consensus of $588.2M and $0.28. As is the case with Adobe, Nuance, and others, near-term EPS is pressured by a shift from licenses to subscriptions (leads revenue recognition to be deferred).
- Autodesk's FY15 (ends Jan. '15) billings and revenue growth guidance ranges have respectively been hiked to 10%-12% and 7%-9% from 7%-9% and 4%-6%. Subscriber add guidance has been hiked by 50K to 200K-250K.
- FQ2 results trounced estimates on the back of a 27% Y/Y increase in billings - that's sharply above FQ1's 10%. Subscriptions grew by 74K to 2.01M, and the deferred revenue balance rose 2% Q/Q and 22% Y/Y to $981M.
- Americas revenue +11% Y/Y to $223M; EMEA +21% to $244M; Asia-Pac +8% to $170M.
- Driving growth: Architecture, engineering, & construction sales rose 23% Y/Y to $218M, and manufacturing sales rose 17% to $168M. Platform solutions/emerging business revenue rose 5% to $208M, and media/entertainment was flat at $44M.
- GAAP opex +22% to $499.3M, with big growth in both sales/marketing and R&D spend. 1.9M shares were repurchased.
- FQ2 results, PR
Aug. 14, 2014, 4:02 PM
Jun. 18, 2014, 11:47 AM
- Adobe beat May quarter estimates on the back of better-than-expected Creative Cloud subscriber growth, and also hiked its FY14 sub growth forecast. All of that is going over well with Autodesk (ADSK +3.8%) investors.
- Autodesk's 3ds Max (3D modeling/rendering) and Maya (3D animation) software targets many of the same media/publishing firms Adobe sells Creative Cloud to. Moreover, Autodesk is undergoing a similar transition towards cloud/subscription-based revenue streams.
- Previous: Autodesk buys 3D game engine developer
May 16, 2014, 5:37 PM
May 16, 2014, 9:17 AM
ADSK vs. ETF Alternatives
Other News & PR