Tue, Jan. 27, 3:10 PM
- Gold miner (NYSEARCA:GDX) earnings reports are on the way, and Barclays analysts foresee Q4 earnings to come in lower across the board with margins under pressure as metals prices fall; for gold, they see producers’ margins falling ~12% Q/Q.
- Barclays believes lower gold prices also will mean writedowns of assets for many companies, while mining depletion will combine with limited exploration budgets to bring down reserves.
- Most senior and mid-tier gold producers will not see Y/Y production growth in 2015, the firm says; Goldcorp (GG +2.9%), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM +4.6%), Yamana Gold (AUY +3.2%) and New Gold (NGD +4.2%) should enjoy production growth, while royalty companies Royal Gold (RGLD +1.8%) and Franco-Nevada (FNV +4.6%) should have revenue growth despite lower commodity pricing.
Tue, Jan. 6, 5:35 PM
Dec. 30, 2014, 4:18 PM
- With the dollar falling against the yen and pound and a minor flight to safety afoot - Treasurys are higher, stocks have closed moderately lower - COMEX gold is up 1.4% today to $1,197/oz., and COMEX silver is up 2.6% to $16.20/oz. The gains have provided a lift to the volatile/beaten-down shares of gold and silver miners.
- Notable gold gainers: IAG +11.7%. ABX +3.6%. AUY +5.2%. NEM +3.6%. GG +4.6%. AU +4.2%. SBGL +4.9%. KGC +4.1%. AGI +5%. AEM +5.1%.
- Notable silver gainers: AG +7.6%. SVM +7.1%. SSRI +6.2%. SVM +6.4%. PAAS +3.9%. SVLC +5.2%. EXK +6.9%.
- ETFs with 3%+ gains: NUGT +10.1%. GDXJ +5.1%. USLV +9.7%. UBG +5.4%. USV +3.8%. SIVR +3.4%. AGQ +6.3%. BAR +3.2%. DBS +3.2%.
- The group rallied on Friday after the PBOC relaxed lending rules for banks, but sold off on Monday.
Nov. 18, 2014, 3:59 PM
- Gold prices jumped 1.2% to settle just shy of $1,200/oz. as the dollar eased against major currencies amid tensions in eastern Europe and the Middle East, and some observers are starting to ask if gold mining and production stocks (GDX +4.8%) have finally found a bottom.
- 24/7's Chris Lange thinks gold giants may have hit their lows on Nov. 5, followed by an impressive recovery since that date with gold fundamentals apparently not changing drastically.
- Major precious metals miners are strong across the board: ABX +6.5%, AEM +4.4%, AU +6.2%, GG +3.7%, GFI +7.6%, SLW +3.6%, NEM +3.4%, AGI +4.9%, IAG +6.6%, AUY +6.8%, KGC +9.2%, NGD +2.8%, GOLD +1.9%, RGLD +3.7%.
- Other ETFs: GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, JNUG, GLDX, JDST, SLVP, SILJ, RING, SGDM, PSAU
Nov. 14, 2014, 10:58 AM
- The gold market will enter deficit by 2016 as producers cut capex, resulting in reduced supply in the medium- to long-term, Credit Suisse analyst Anita Soni writes, seeing 2014 as a likely plateau for supply (Briefing.com).
- Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM +2.6%) and Eldorado Gold (EGO +4.5%) are the firm's top picks among gold miners under coverage.
- Other Outperform rated gold companies are GG, KGC, AUY, AUQ, FNV, GSS and IAG; rated Neutral are ABX, NEM, NGD and AGI.
Nov. 12, 2014, 10:33 AM
- Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM +3.8%) says it has completed a major drilling program at its high-grade Amaruq gold project, northwest of the Meadowbank mine in Nunavut, with a total of 144 holes.
- AEM says an initial resource estimate is expected early next year.
- Analysts at Desjardins believe the results to date support the potential to extend the operating life of the Meadowbank mill, which is the miner’s largest gold producing asset.
Oct. 31, 2014, 11:35 AM
- Precious metals miners are slammed for a third straight session as gold prices plunged to multiyear lows.
- Japan’s surprise stimulus move is supporting the U.S. dollar and driving the ICE U.S. Dollar index to a four-year high, making gold more expensive to overseas buyers; while the prospect for more monetary stimulus usually increases the lure of gold, the threat of global deflation has withered gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices, Barron's Chris Dieterich explains.
- Nearly everyone in the sector is hitting 52-week lows (again): ABX -4.5%, NEM -7.7%, GG -0.5%, SLW -3.6%, AGI -5.8%, AEM -4.1%, AUY -10.6%, IAG -4.6%, KGC -16.2%, NGD -6.1%, AU -2%, GOLD -1.6%.
- Also: GFI -7.4%, RGLD -3.8%.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, JNUG, GLDX, JDST, SLVP, RING, SGDM, PSAU
Oct. 29, 2014, 7:22 PM
- Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM) -1.7% AH after Q3 earnings and revenues both fall short of analyst expectations.
- AEM's Q3 production totaled ~349K oz. of gold, up 10.6% Y/Y, with average cash costs for producing an ounce of gold on a by-product basis rising to $716/oz. from $591 in the same period last year.
- Expects FY 2014 production of ~1.4M oz., exceeding the upper guidance of company guidance, with total cash costs on a by-product basis of $650-$675/oz.
- AEM raises its FY 2015 production forecast 1.6M oz. from a previous outlook for 1.25M oz., as it expects higher output from its Meadowbank mine in Canada, Kittila mine in Finland and Mexican operations.
Oct. 6, 2014, 2:45 PM
- Gold prices bounce off 15-month lows to reclaim $1,200/oz. as the dollar rally pauses, helping strengthen shares of precious metals miners: AU +4.4%, GFI +3%, IAG +1.9%, BTG +3%, GG +2.2%, NGD +1.5%, KGC +1.6%, AGI +1.6%, RGLD +1%, SLW +2.1%.
- Sterne Agee analysts Michael Dudas and Satyadeep Jain foresee gold and silver prices trending higher, with gold averaging $1,400/oz. in 2015 and $1,450 in 2016 and silver averaging $19 next year and $21 in 2016, as “global demand remains firm, liquidity remains ample and the dollar appears overbought.”
- With investor sentiment still skeptical, Sterne thinks any supportive macro news flow could provide fuel for a rally; the firm rate Newmont Mining (NEM +1.5%), Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM +2.4%), Coeur Mining (CDE +1.3%) and Gold Resource (GORO +0.2%) as Buys, with Barrick Gold (ABX +0.5%), Hecla Mining (HL +4.3%) and Pan American Silver (PAAS +1.5%) rated Neutral.
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, SGOL, ZSL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, OUNZ, DGLD, AGOL, DBP, TBAR, USV, UBG, JJP, GLDE, BAR, GYEN, GEUR, RGRP, BARS, GGBP, BLNG
Oct. 3, 2014, 5:36 PM
Jul. 31, 2014, 11:35 AM
- Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM -9%) has a defender as shares are pummeled today following a disappointing Q2 earnings report, with Sterne Agee's Michael Dudas reiterating his Buy rating and $48 price target.
- AEM is a leading, well-managed mining equity that has effectively managed the down cycle in precious metals, Dudas says, noting that while Q2 estimates were off due to slightly lower metal price realizations and other line items, management raised 2014 production and lowered cost guidance on continued strong performance and the Osisko acquisition completion.
- AEM's mid-year exploration update signals potential for resource expansion at Meliadine and Kittila, the analyst adds.
Jul. 14, 2014, 11:29 AM
- Precious metals miners are broadly lower as gold futures head for their biggest daily drop of 2014, plunging $29.30, or 2.2%, to $1,308.10/oz.
- Physical demand has remained short of expectations, Commerzbank's Eugen Weinberg says, and India's decision to maintain a 10% import duty on gold and silver likely will dampen future gold demand expectations from the country.
- Barclays, which expects gold to drop to $1,200/oz. by Q3, also expresses caution, saying recent gains across the metals complex look toppy.
- ABX -1.2%, NEM -1.7%, GG -2.4%, KGC -1.8%, AEM -1.4%, AUY -1.4%, EGO -3%, NGD -2.8%, FNV -2.4%, AGI -2.6%, AU -2.2%, IAG -1.9%, GFI -3.4%, BTG -2.1%, NG -0.7%, SLW -2.1%.
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, GDX, NUGT, AGQ, IAU, DUST, SIL, USLV, SIVR, SGOL, ZSL, UGL, DGP, GLDX, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, SLVP, DGL, DBS, GLTR, DGZ, RING, AGOL, DGLD, OUNZ, DBP, GGGG, WITE, PSAU, TBAR, USV, UBG, JJP, GLDE, GYEN, GLDL, RGRP, GLDS, GEUR, GGBP, BLNG
Jun. 20, 2014, 3:22 PM
- It's a good idea to have exposure to gold stocks in one's portfolio, say JPMorgan analyst John Bridges and team, but beware of sector plays (GDX -1.3%), and instead pick and choose carefully.
- Goldcorp (G +0.1%) is a "simple decision stock," says the team, thanks to its strong balance sheet, growth profile, and disciplined management. Names like Barrick (ABX -1.2%), Newmont (NEM +1.1%), and Kinross (KGC -1.9%) would fare better in a gold bull market, but today's "back-to-basics phase" means valuations are driven by strong operations and accretive deals.
- Another theme is to own players with operations in the safest locations, an idea paying off for Agnico (AEM +0.7%), but the team also recently initiated B2Gold (BTG +1.1%) with positive coverage on the idea some companies can learn how to operate successfully in "more complex locations."
- Another favorite is laggard Buenaventura (BVN -0.5%) which is likely to see improved results in H2.
May. 2, 2014, 9:18 AM
May. 1, 2014, 6:32 PM
- Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +6.4% AH after Q1 earnings more than quadrupled Y/Y and beat estimates, as it set a company record for gold production with 366,421 oz. at total cash costs of $537/oz.
- AEM says it now expects FY 2014 production to come in above its previous high estimate, while costs will come in under the low of its previous forecast range.
- Q1 operating activities provided $247M of cash, up from $146M in the year-ago quarter, despite lower gold prices.
- Sees 2014 capex of $431M, more than previous guidance of $416M, as several new projects were approved.
May. 1, 2014, 4:31 PM
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