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Mon, Nov. 24, 11:18 AM
- Potential bond buyers are set to spend a net $2.4T next year, but borrowers will issue just $2T, according to JPMorgan. It will be the fifth time in seven years demand has outpaced supply, including about a $500B gap this year.
- What's going on here? Central banks. "There's really not been much supply hitting the market," says Nomura's George Goncalves. The ECB is set to buy about $400B in bonds next year, and the BOJ will add at least $700B, says JPMorgan. The BOJ owns about 20% of outstanding JGBs, and that proportion could rise to 50% as soon as 2018, according to the top economist at Japan Macro Advisors.
- ETFs: AGG, BND, BOND, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, GBF, RIGS, DI, FBND, LDUR, FWDB, IUSB, VBND
Mon, Nov. 17, 12:46 PM
- Gluttons for punishment, bond bears are at it again, as - asked in a Bloomberg poll to choose just one asset class to short - 45% choose some sort of fixed-income product. That amount is three times the percentage who selected gold, and also higher than that of stocks, commodities, currencies, and real estate.
- “For rates to go a lot lower in the U.S. from the point they are trading at right now, things would have to go very bad in terms of growth,” says a money manager, neatly summing up the conventional wisdom.
- ETFs: AGG, BND, BOND, BIV, BLV, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, ILTB, GBF, GVI, YPRO, FBND, BYLD, IUSB, AGND, AGZD, VBND
Mon, Nov. 3, 1:50 PM| Comment!
Thu, Oct. 30, 1:51 PM
- U.S-listed fixed-income ETFs are set to record their biggest monthly inflow on record, with BlackRock data showing inflows through Wednesday of $17.4B, which would top February's $17B.
- Those in the loop say a large chunk of that is money exiting Pimco's Total Return fund in the wake of Bill Gross' departure. They note a surge in trading volume in short-term government bond ETFs and board-market trackers which more or less act as cash substitutes. Those funds soaking up the bulk of the money this month: SHY, AGG, and BND.
- BlackRock's (NYSE:BLK) head of fixed-income strategy at its iShares unit Matt Tucker says his people have been talking to clients about using AGG as a bridge position while they figure out which manager they now want to stick with.
- ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, GBF, FBND, IUSB, VBND
Thu, Oct. 16, 4:23 PM
- The Vident Core U.S. Bond Strategy ETF (Pending:VBND) is the third fund by Vident Financial, LLC, launched just a year after its first fund, the Vident International Equity ETF (NASDAQ:VIDI).
- VBND will track a variety of domestic fixed income securities using an index which systematically over or underweights each sector based on macroeconomics and valuation.
- "Fixed income is a critical asset class in our client's portfolios and we set out to address some of the risk challenges they are facing in the core of their fixed income portfolio," said Nick Stonestreet, Chief Executive Officer of Vident Financial, in a press release.
- Other broad fixed income ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, GBF, FBND, IUSB
Wed, Oct. 15, 3:25 PM
- U.S.-based mutual funds saw $4.6B in outflows from taxable bond funds for the week ended October 8, according to ICI. This was less than the $21B withdrawn - the largest amount since records began being kept in 2007 - in the few days immediately after Gross exited Pimco and its mammoth Total Return Fund.
- Of course, while investors mull where to put that money now that Gross is no longer at the helm, fixed-income has undergone a major rally - the Total Return Fund itself is up more than 1% since the start of October.
- ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, GBF, FBND, IUSB
Fri, Oct. 10, 2:46 PM
- More than $9B flowed into U.S.-listed fixed-income ETFs during the two weeks from Sept. 26-Oct. 8, with BlackRock's (BLK -1.2%) iShares capturing $6.2B of that money, according to the firm.
- The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond Fund (AGG) had inflows of $1.59B (Vanguard's BND saw inflows of $1.68B), the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund (SHY) drew in $1.68B, and the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF +0.2%) had $640M of inflows.
- This isn't all Pimco related as unsteady equity markets have sent a wave of money into fixed income over the past few days.
Thu, Oct. 9, 1:31 PM
- The Fidelity Total Bond ETF (Pending:FBND), the Fidelity Limited Term Bond ETF (Pending:FLTB) and the Fidelity Corporate Bond ETF (Pending:FCOR), the first actively managed bond exchange-traded funds from Fidelity Investments, began trading this morning.
- Fidelity's timing could not have been better, with many investors, shaken by Bill Gross's departure from PIMCO, may be searching the market for new investment options.
- “I would say the timing of our launch is fortunate; however, this is part of a really well-thought-out long-term strategy around ETFs,” said Scott E. Couto, president of Fidelity Financial Advisor Solutions.
- Other total market ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, GBF, IUSB
- Other short term ETFs: BSV, ISTB, MINC
- Other corporate bond ETFs: LQD, CORP, CRED, QLTA, IGS, COBO, CBND, QLTB, IGU
Thu, Oct. 9, 9:23 AM
- “We’re nowhere close to reaching the limit in terms of ability to generate alpha,” says Scott Mather, one of the three managers taking the reins of Pimco's Total Return Fund (MUTF:PTTRX), (NYSEARCA:BOND) in wake of Bill Gross' departure. Whether it's possible to keep generating benchmark-beating returns with a $200B portfolio (it was once nearly $300B) is the debate of the day on Wall Street.
- Mather brushes off the idea of too big too succeed as does S&P Capital IQ's Todd Rosenbluth, who notes Total Return had a huge year in 2012 (beating the benchmark AGG by 600 basis points) when AUM was larger than it is today.
- Square 1 Financial's David Schawel disagrees, noting the fund's size excludes it from too many attractive segments of fixed income. Total Return's performance, he says, basically comes down to duration calls, and no one gets those right more than 50% of the time.
- He takes note of Dan Ivascyn's Pimco Income Fund (MUTF:PIMIX), (NYSE:PDI) - up an average of 12.8% over the last five years vs. the peer average of 7.2%. AUM were $300M in 2008 and $38.6B today. Ivascyn and his co-manager, says Schawel, play in lucrative areas of the bond market which Total Return isn't even allowed to participate in, and even if it could, the size wouldn't be enough to move its needle.
Fri, Oct. 3, 3:00 PM
- Bill Gross' move to Janus (JNS -2.1%) was enough to get Citi's William Katz to pull his Sell/Underweight rating, but he's not upgrading any higher than Neutral for now. Katz says Gross has requested just one trader to assist him, and notes no one from Pimco has joined him, suggesting one of Gross' edges - his ability to get more and better information than anyone else in fixed-income - is no longer there.
- Katz says the market has priced into Janus a $25B-$50B migration of assets, thus setting up for disappointment should AUM growth not reach those lofty levels.
- Bigger winners might be shops like DoubleLine, MetWest, and BlackRock (BLK +1%) - whose Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG -0.1%) broke its inflow record in the days following Gross' departure.
Wed, Oct. 1, 9:40 AM| Comment!
Tue, Sep. 30, 10:35 AM
- The Total Return ETF (NYSEARCA:BOND) - far smaller, but following a similar strategy to the Total Return Fund - saw $446.5M pulled on Friday following the announcement of Bill Gross' departure from Pimco. The redemption accounted for 12.5% of the fund's shares. Withdrawals slowed to $98M yesterday.
- It seems a good portion of those funds were placed for at least safekeeping BlackRock's (NYSE:BLK) iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:AGG), which saw more than $400M of inflows.
- What's Pimco selling? Traders say Pimco was seeking bids on more than $170M of agency-backed CMBS.
Fri, Sep. 19, 3:54 PM
- The Long Duration Total Return Bond Fund will have a dollar-weighted average effective duration of at least 10 years and will invest "in debt securities of any kind." Jeff Gundlach - who will be the fund's manager - has said he sees little amiss with interest rates at these low levels, and doesn't expect much of a rise from here.
- In addition to Treasurys, the fund's mandate allows for investments in MBS, CMOs, corporate debt (IG and HY), and overseas paper, among other instruments.
- Broad fixed income ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, GBF, IUSB
Tue, Sep. 2, 7:31 AM| Comment!
Fri, Aug. 1, 2:31 PM| Comment!
Tue, Jul. 29, 3:11 PM
- "The market is very complacent right now in terms of the valuations," says Matthew Eagan, co-manager of the Loomis Sayles Bond Fund. Along with co-managers Dan Fuss and Elaine Stokes, Eagan has doubled its short-term U.S. and Canadian debt holdings to 27% of AUM - a bet government bond rates are about to move higher.
- "The global economy is strong enough to support the Fed’s decision to continue the taper and eventually raise rates by the middle of 2015," says Eagan. "We want to be prepared for that to happen."
- Eagan's fund has outperformed 98% of its peers over the last five years.
- In today's action - as the FOMC is in day one of its 2-day meeting - the 10-year Treasury yield continues go its own way - off another three basis points to 2.46%. TLT +0.4%, TBT -0.8%
- ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, GBF, IUSB
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The iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF (the “Fund”) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.
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