iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)

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  • commenter
    Jessica08
    Jul 22 01:00 PM
    My Website
    ETF Industry Data Summary: 1H'08 [view article]
    I think it is great that more investors are investing in ETFs. I just shows that the market players are becoming increasingly aware of the benefits of ETFs over Mutual Funds and individual stocks. I hope to see the numbers grow over the next few years. Reply
  • commenter
    mangy cat
    Jul 22 09:01 AM
    ETF Industry Data Summary: 1H'08 [view article]
    quick onceover suggests investors are getting more savvy
    in both diversification, including leveraged funds, bonds, etc
    and intolerance to excessive costs (vanguard flies vs bgi, ssga, holdrs; or at fund level: e.g. vwo vs eem)

    p.s. freudian slip?
    "total ETF asses"?
    (paragraph 2)     Reply
  • commenter
    phinsuntanni
    ng
    Jul 11 04:03 PM
    My Website
    And They All Fall Down: No Broad Stock Index Is Up [view article]
    what you expected with Texas in charge! Reply
  • commenter
    secmaven
    Jul 10 08:37 PM
    Bonds: No Inflation Threat in Sight [view article]
    The quantity of money available that must be invested somewhere is at least double the amount relative to GDP growth since Volker pulled his high interest ploy. Plus, the float required to fund the GDP is less. In short, liquidity is way up and bonds become the beneficiary. Reply
  • commenter
    Skjellifetti
    Jul 10 02:20 PM
    Bonds: No Inflation Threat in Sight [view article]
    The argument that rates are low and thus don't reflect inflation because there has been a "flight to safety" seems fishy. If you expect your "safe" investment to be eaten up by inflation, then it isn't really "safe", is it? Reply
  • commenter
    adan
    Jul 10 01:01 PM
    My Website
    Bonds: No Inflation Threat in Sight [view article]
    interesting article, and really interesting array of comments !

    maybe a follow up article (s) later re possible trading inflections?

    thanks!     Reply
  • commenter
    theinvesting
    speculator
    Jul 10 12:29 PM
    My Website
    Bonds: No Inflation Threat in Sight [view article]
    Markets are not always right, other wise there nobody would beat the market. One of the best trades right now is -short the 30 bond or if you like etf's short TLT. Reply
  • commenter
    carey_jim
    Jul 10 12:16 PM
    Bonds: No Inflation Threat in Sight [view article]
    Sorry, I meant 165 yen.

    At this point it looks as if the US government wants both the yen and renminbi stronger and not weaker, however.

    Bureaucratic minds are not easy to fathom.     Reply
  • commenter
    carey_jim
    Jul 10 12:08 PM
    Bonds: No Inflation Threat in Sight [view article]
    The chart actually shows a similar lag between interest rates and inflation for the two previous periods also.

    The Iraq war and Vietnam war are also both causes of inflation as all wars are (Revolutionary War, Civil War, World War I and II) Guns or butter?

    As has been pointed out, in another comment, it is in the interest of the world to purchase US treasury debt to keep the United States solvent and to prevent the collapse of the dollar which might lead to world economic chaos.

    The "flight to safety" into US Treasury issues is a historical reflex action which has less rational basis today than it has had in the recent past.

    All of these factors point to a possible quick and severe correction of interest rates sometime in the future when the roadrunner realizes that he has, in fact, fallen off the cliff.

    Is it rational to expect countries to loan money in inflationary environments when the currency they are purchasing is also losing value? Or is it state planning (socialism)?

    Is it rational for United States citizens to purchase that same debt for rates that are below the official rate of inflation and which are FAR below the actual rate of inflation, hedonic factors aside of course, like the quality of television entertainment, hip hop and the movies?

    The United States is not strong enough to try to set the dollar at .8 euros and 65 yen, for example, in another Breton Woods type declaration,, or even to "talk it up" over a two or three year period which they would like to be able to do.

    That would be socialism anyway and we know socialism doesn't work. Or do we?

     Reply
  • commenter
    User 143167
    Jul 10 10:21 AM
    My Website
    Bonds: No Inflation Threat in Sight [view article]
    The conclusion is wrong. The bond yield is low because huge foreign demand of T bonds. It is not reflecting the inflation anticipation, but the willingness of foreigners to keep US(their biggest customer) solvent. Reply
  • commenter
    flatman
    Jul 10 08:44 AM
    Bonds: No Inflation Threat in Sight [view article]
    How about this theory - Investors have piled into Treasury's because many other fixed income investments do not make good collateral any more. So using current yields as an indicator of inflation is an invalid concept. Reply
  • commenter
    DrBagel
    Jul 10 08:42 AM
    Bonds: No Inflation Threat in Sight [view article]
    Thank you, very interesting. I am concerned that the credit crunch is distorting the usual inflationary signals seen in the bond market. Investors have fled to treasuries for safety, pushing yields down. Much of the money currently in treasuries was in MBS and other credit products I dont understand and which did not exist during the last round of inflation. Perhaps this keeps the bond market from registering the inflationary trend.

    I also wonder if destruction of wealth is really the same thing as destruction of money. Deflation would result from the destruction of money. When people lose money in property value they are losing wealth, not cash.

    There is a fascinating disconnect between bond yields and commodity/gold prices. One of these is wrong. I dont know which.     Reply
  • commenter
    Karsten
    Jul 10 08:26 AM
    Bonds: No Inflation Threat in Sight [view article]
    Actually, the inflation of the early 1970 was caused by the Vietnam war funding requirements and only aggravated by the first oil crisis. I find the observations in the article astuteand the consequences for markets in general are very positive which will be seen by year end. Reply
  • commenter
    FrankM
    Jul 09 12:37 PM
    Choosing Your Portfolio Risk Tolerance [view article]
    I have read most of your articles, they have answered all of my questions but these:

    How about leverage, or lack of leverage - cash. If we have a risk free return on the Y axis, we can reduce risk in an efficient way by combining cash and something close to a P75 portfolio in a linear fashion; on a line from the risk free return on the y axis tangent to the efficient frontier. Like wise the line would extend to the right, above the frontier, allowing higher returns with less risk by using leverage. So shouldn't we be concerned with finding the portfolio that provides the steepest line (Sharpe ratio?) and then adjusting our risk/return with leverage or cash? Of course its not that simple, our loan rate would not be the risk free rate and leverage might not be good for a long range strategy, but how about options or levered ETFs? Also if the left side of the efficient frontier was high enough we could combine a risky portfolio with cash, no need for leverage. We also have the problem of what to use for cash, a MM or maybe short bonds, if they are held to maturity and not marked to market.

    You optimize the asset mix by hand, using experience. How about using Monte Carlo to do the optimization, try many random combinations (0%-100%) and pick among the winners? Might take a while, but my computer is not used while I sleep!
     Reply
  • commenter
    Chris N
    Jul 09 02:47 AM
    Replicate The Yale Endowment With These ETFs [view article]
    Excellent--looking forward to following up... Reply

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