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AGNC

American Capital Agency Corp.

6/19/2013, 2:18 AM ET

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Thursday, June 13, 3:39 PM Mortgage REIT (REM +4.1%) rallies are accelerating as the day draws to a close. Sector giants Annaly (NLY +4.7%), American Capital Agency (AGNC +4.2%) are closing in on 5% gains, while CYS Investment (CYS +6.2%) and Western Mortgage (WMC +7.1%) are threatening 7%. Did everybody realize all at once that higher long end rates combined with ZIRP should allow mREIT managers to invest at very profitable spreads? 30 Comments [Financials]
Wednesday, June 12, 4:08 PM American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.7%) is getting no pressure from its lenders to reduce leverage in light of the decline in mortgage prices, says CIO Gary Kain, responding to a question at the Morgan Stanley conference (webcast) (slides). If anything, he says, AGNC has room to take up leverage to an even higher level (it averaged 8.2x in Q1). Previous: The presentation discloses book value loss in Q2 through June 7 is similar to that of Q1. 7 Comments [Financials]
Wednesday, June 12, 10:34 AM American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.2%) estimates a similar decline in book value through June 7 as that experienced in Q1 (8.6%), putting June 7 book value at $26.44. At the current price, the stock is trading at about a 7% discount to book. The numbers were disclosed in slides prepared for the company's presentation at the Morgan Stanley conference at 3:35 ET this afternoon. 16 Comments [Financials]
Friday, June 7, 3:09 PM "I would not overestimate retail investors' knowledge of how this business works," says Scott Ulm, co-CEO of Armour Residential (ARR -1.3%). Income fans love mREITs (MORT -1.3%) but can suffer quick losses as rates rise. "We believe mREITs are not appropriate for most individual investors," says Edward Jones' Kate Warne, warning brokers to steer clients away from the sector. Ulm remains hopeful: "As bonds become cheaper, reinvestment becomes more profitable." Beneath a big rally for the averages, the sector is hit again today: American Capital (AGNC -2.6%), (MTGE -1.2%), Annaly (NLY -1.9%), Two Harbors (TWO -0.9%), Hatteras (HTS -1.9%), CYS (CYS -2.8%), Anworth (ANH -0.9%). 44 Comments [Financials, On the Move]
Friday, June 7, 10:26 AM "I would not overestimate retail investors' knowledge of how this business works," says Armour Residential (ARR) co-CEO Scott Ulm. Income players love mREITs (MORT), but when rates rise, losses come quick. "We believe mREITs are not appropriate for most individual investors," writes Edward Jones' Kate Warne as the brokerage warns its 12K advisors to steer clients clear. Ulm remains hopeful: "As bonds become cheaper, reinvestment becomes more profitable." With rates up today, the sector is lower again: Annaly (NLY -0.8%), American Capital (AGNC -2%), CYS (CYS -1.1%), Western Asset (WMC -0.6%), Invesco (IVR -0.6%), Hatteras (HTS -0.8%). Comment! [Financials]
Thursday, June 6, 4:28 PM With interest rate fears subsiding until at least 8:30 tomorrow morning, mREITs (MORT +1.9%) get a breather. Leading higher were American Capital (AGNC +3.4%), (MTGE +1.1%), Chimera (CIM +2.7%), Hatteras (HTS +2.4%), CYS Investments (CYS +1.9%), Javelin (JMI +4.7%), and Annaly (NLY +1.9%). One theme from conference presentations this week: Most have taken advantage of widening spreads to buy - if rates come in, they're set to profit. 11 Comments [Financials, On the Move]
Tuesday, June 4, 9:28 AM More from CYS Investments at KBW (previous): The speed (page 9) with which mortgage rates have increased in unlike anything seen even during the financial crisis, says CEO Kevin Grant. He muses over whether Bernanke's May testimony (taper) was confused messaging or an intentional market test. The punishment inflicted on mREITs (MORT) is well-known, but don't forget: Refinance activity will crater - gain on sale windfall to banks may be over, home affordability is now diminished, banks will be pushed to Treasurys over credit risk as the ROE on government paper is now improved. Grant's talk (webcast) is one all mREIT investors will value. 25 Comments [Financials]
Friday, May 31, 12:59 PM Renewed selling hits mREITs (MORT -1.2%) as Treasury yields turn decidedly higher, TLT -0.8%. Getting the worst of it today is Ellington Financial (EFC -3.3%) - a partnership, not a REIT; it's more trading shop, but still leveraged to credit and interest rates. It's recently IPOd mortgage REIT counterpart EARN -1.1%. Also notably lower is CYS Investments (CYS -2.6%), American Capital (AGNC -1.8%), (MTGE -1.5%), Annaly (NLY -1.3%), and Armour Residentail (ARR -1.3%). 15 Comments [Financials, On the Move]
Thursday, May 30, 10:04 AM Buy the (big) dip in the mREITs, say both KBW and RBC Capital. "We think the bond market has over-reacted and mREITs have over-reacted to that over-reaction," says KBW (presumably Bose George). Stocks to buy if the Fed cuts back earlier-than-expected: CMO, HTS, MFA, ANH, DX. Stocks if the Fed continues with the status quo: AGNC, NLY, WMC. RBC favors NLY, MFA, and HTS, but warns AGNC's higher leverage magnifies losses as well as gains. The sector (MORT +1.1%) is continuing with yesterday afternoon's bounce. 17 Comments [Financials]
Wednesday, May 29, 3:20 PM Some green creeps into the mortgage REIT sector (MORT) after a panicky morning. Sector giants AGNC and NLY post small gains, while hybrid Invesco (IVR +2.8%) and agency adjustable-rate player Hatteras (HTS +3.1%) have moved strongly higher. Not only did insiders step in to buy plunging Armour Residential today, but they were also buyers (I, II) of sister-company Javelin Mortgage (JMI -2.3%) which got hit with a downgrade to Hold at Citigroup. At the morning's low of $14.69, the stock was trading at a 20% discount to March 31 book value. 6 Comments [Financials, On the Move]
Wednesday, May 29, 10:01 AM The selling continues in the mortgage REIT space (MORT -3.4%), with one of today's biggest losers Chimera Investment (CIM -3.8%) a curious one as its exposure is credit risk not rate risk. Other tumblers: Armour (ARR -6.4%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -6.5%), Javelin (JMI -6.1%), MFA Financial (MFA -3.4%). There's little bid for American Capital - (AGNC -4.1%), (MTGE -3.3%) - with one trader noting Gary Kain's focus on owning pre-pay protected paper is another bet not paying off as rates rise. 27 Comments [Financials, On the Move]
Thursday, May 23, 3:34 PM "Every business is going to have cycles (of) good times and bad times," says American Capital (AGNC, MTGE) CIO Gary Kain, speaking at a conference (transcript) (presentation), and not willing to admit this is a bad time. The reality, he says, is all those Fed purchases haven't tightened up mortgage spreads all that much. "(It's confusing to me ... I mean we didn't expect them to perform the way they did." 9 Comments [Financials]
Thursday, May 23, 3:01 PM Agency MBS fail to bounce from the "massive liquidation" following Bernanke's testimony yesterday, according to CIBC's Tom Tucci. Suggestions of a tapering of Fed purchases sent Fannie Mae MBS with 3% coupons to their lowest levels of the year. "Right now it seems the only source of demand is the Fed," says BAML's Brad Scott. Unsurprisingly, pure agency mREITs like AGNC and ARR hit 52-week lows today. Annaly (NLY) - now diversified into the commercial space with the CXS purchase - outperforms. 13 Comments [Financials]
Friday, May 17, 8:27 AM "The issue isn't if the Fed exits, it's a question of whether they exit way earlier than expected," American Capital (AGNC) CIO Gary Kain tells Bloomberg, feeling his portfolio is better positioned now than in Q1, when higher rates took a chunk out of book value. The Fed will be "extremely slow" in its withdrawal, says KBW's Mike Widner. "That spells an environment that actually gets better for the mREITs (MORT, REM) before it gets worse." 15 Comments [Financials]
Wednesday, May 15, 10:05 AM The mortgage REIT sector (MORT -1%) continues under pressure, today led by Western Asset Mortgage (WMC -7.6%) as its book value blew up in Q1 thanks to portfolio losses. American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.5%) - which started the downturn when it reported losses 2 weeks ago - nears a 52-week low, Armour Residential (ARR -3.1%) hits one. One trader suggests Capstead Mortgage (CMO -1.4%) with a portfolio of mostly reset ARMs the least affected by rising rates. CYS Investments (CYS -0.7%) - trading at a 10% discount to book and also owning ARMs - is attractive as well. 18 Comments [Financials, Quick Ideas]
Monday, May 13, 12:43 PM The mortgage REITs are lit up bright red (MORT -1.9%), again led by American Capital Agency (AGNC -3.5%) and American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -3%), with Annaly (NLY -3.1%) not far behind. Yes, the 10-year Treasury yield is a 3 bps higher, but there's also rare action in Fed Funds futures, now pricing in a whopping 50 bps in rate hikes by this time 2016. AGNC presents at the JMP Conference at 2 ET. 39 Comments [Financials, On the Move]

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