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American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC)

  • Tue, Feb. 3, 3:52 PM
    • Unable to put any sort of positive move together even as interest rates tumbled this year, mREITs (REM +0.9%) are uniformly higher this session as the 10-year yield jumps 11 basis points to 1.78%.
    • American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.3%) reported better-than-hoped Q4 results last night, but has altered its mix of portfolio holdings and hedges to brace for what it expects will be a wave of prepayments. If rates keep this up, those prepayments may not materialize.
    • Annaly (NLY +1.1%), Chimera (CIM +1.5%), CYS Investments (CYS +1.3%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +1.8%), Hatteras (HTS +1.1%), MFA Financial (MFA +1.3%), Western Asset (WMC +1.8%), Dynex (DX +1.1%), Ellington Financial (EFC +1.2%).
    | Tue, Feb. 3, 3:52 PM | 18 Comments
  • Tue, Feb. 3, 11:43 AM
    • With the big declines in interest rates in late 2014 and thus far this year, American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.4%) has taken steps to protect its portfolio from what it expects will be a big rise in prepayments.
    • Webcast and prepayment slides
    • Among them is taking exposure to 30-year mortgages way down, with total face value at year-end of $14.7B vs. $23.2B three months earlier. Generics should exhibit the fastest prepayment speeds and they're now $5.1B vs. $13.2B the previous quarter. That money has gone into 15-year mortgages, where prepayments should be lower.
    • The hedging portfolio has also been significantly altered, with a portion of longer-dated swaps terminated, and shorted-dated swaps added. The company has also altered its Treasury holdings, buying the long end and selling short-dated paper. AGNC's 10-year Treasury position went from short $2.7B to long $2.4B by year-end.
    • Previously: American Capital agency beats, posts rise in book value (Feb. 2)
    • Previously: American Capital Agency beats by $0.11 (Feb. 2)
    | Tue, Feb. 3, 11:43 AM | 4 Comments
  • Mon, Feb. 2, 4:15 PM
    • Q4 net spread and dollar roll income of $0.92 per share vs. $0.85 in Q3. Quarterly dividend run rate was $0.66.
    • Net book value per share of $25.74 vs. $25.54 one quarter earlier. Today's close of $21.43 is a 16.7% discount to book.
    • Q4 economic return - dividends plus the change in book value - of 3.4% or 13.4% annualized. Full-year economic return of 18.5%.
    • CPR of 9% down 100 basis points from Q3. Net interest rate spread of 1.85% down five basis points.
    • "At risk" leverage of 6.9x vs. 6.7x in Q3.
    • Conference call tomorrow at 11 ET
    • Previously: American Capital Agency beats by $0.11 (Feb. 2)
    • AGNC flat after hours
    | Mon, Feb. 2, 4:15 PM | 9 Comments
  • Mon, Feb. 2, 4:05 PM
    | Mon, Feb. 2, 4:05 PM | 3 Comments
  • Mon, Feb. 2, 12:16 PM
    • Non-agency REITs likely fared best in Q4 says the team as credit assets outperformed and were in less need of hedging against higher rates. Two of note are outperform-rated Apollo Residential Mortgage Trust (AMTG -1.2%) and neutral-rated MFA Financial (MFA -1.7%).
    • Agency players, however, were more likely to have positioned themselves for higher rates and should see more limited boosts in book value. Two of note are Annaly Capital (NLY -1.3%) and Western Asset Management (WMC -0.1%) - both neutral-rated.
    • "While the Q4 rally in rates likely drove BVs higher than we previously assumed, in our view it only forestalls the drag from rising rates on future book value," says JPMorgan, cutting price targets on Annaly, American Capital Agency (AGNC -1%), Two Harbors (TWO -1%), Apollo Residential, and Western Asset.
    • Capstead Mortgage already reported its Q4 and results were uninspiring (book value actually slipped a bit).
    • Up after the bell tonight is American Capital Agency.
    • Previously: Credit Suisse downgrades three mortgage REITs (Feb. 2)
    | Mon, Feb. 2, 12:16 PM | 1 Comment
  • Sun, Feb. 1, 5:35 PM
  • Wed, Jan. 28, 4:05 PM
    • The iShares Barclays MBS Bond Fund (MBB +0.2%) hit a new lifetime high, which should be good for the book values of mortgage REITs (assuming they weren't too hedged), but the yield curve continues to sharply flatten. The 10-year Treasury yield is all the way down to 1.71% and the 30-year at a record-low 2.29% - this as the Fed says it's on track for a mid-year rate hike.
    • In addition to shaving margins for leveraged holders of mortgages, the lower rates could result in another refinance wave, and thus a surge in prepayments.
    • Annaly Capital (NLY -1%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.6%), Armour Residential (ARR -0.7%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -0.7%), Western Asset (WMC -2.2%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -0.7%)
    • Previously: Bond yields slide after FOMC (Jan. 28)
    • Previously: FOMC: Still "patient," but rate hike remains on the way (Jan. 28)
    | Wed, Jan. 28, 4:05 PM | 9 Comments
  • Sat, Jan. 24, 8:25 AM
    • In a low-yield world, the newly launched iBillionaire High Dividend Index - which tracks the trading moves of 25 investing-savvy billionaire investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller, James Dinan and Nelson Peltz - actually lives up to its name with a dividend yield of 5.34%.
    • At 24%, the index has a high allocation of energy shares, including OXY, TRP, CNP, COP, BP, ATLS, CVI, WMB, APL, RIG and ARP.
    • Also worth noting is that the index contains some high-yielding mortgage REITs, an area most investors hate right now but where billionaires seem to find value; examples are NRF, AGNC and CIM.
    • No mutual fund or ETF tracks this index, but it offers a fishing pond of income investment ideas to research further.
    • The top 20 holdings: TLM, CVC, GM, TIME, AEE, D, STAY, KMI, TROX, EXC, STNG, PPL, IRM, PFE, KKR, KAR, F, MIC, LO, ABBV.
    | Sat, Jan. 24, 8:25 AM | 112 Comments
  • Tue, Jan. 20, 3:13 PM
    • Borrowers struggling to navigate D.C.'s qualified mortgage rules might try ringing their local mortgage REIT for that refinance or new home mortgage.
    • “There is demand out there for a broader credit box than what banks are providing," says JMP mREIT analyst Steve Delaney. “They’re looking at where the needs are, at borrowers in the market where funding is not available."
    • Western Asset Mortgage (WMC -1.4%) is partnering with lenders to make loans which otherwise wouldn't qualify under the new standards. This lending will focus on borrowers with strong credit, but are shut out for complications surrounding things like being self-employed,
    • Zais Financial (ZFC -0.1%) last year bought mortgage originator GMFS to get a pipeline to new loan supply, and Two Harbors (NYSE:TWO) has recently begun working with lenders to offer loans to those with less than stellar credit, or for those who want to make smaller down payments on jumbo loans (above the conforming $417K figure). “There continues to be a huge national cohort of people able to responsibly purchase a home that simply haven’t been able to get a mortgage,” says CEO Tom Siering.
    • Ellington Financial (EFC) - a partnership, but operates similarly to a REIT - has invested in at least two lenders and built out its team to find non-QM business. “These will be relatively small investments to start with, but they should have the potential to generate a large pipeline of new investments for us, especially in the non-QM, non-prime space,” says CEO Larry Penn.
    • Not all are getting involved. American Capital's (AGNC -1.7%) Gary Kain is waiting to see how others fare before stepping in.
    | Tue, Jan. 20, 3:13 PM | 7 Comments
  • Thu, Jan. 15, 4:15 PM
    • American Capital Agency (NASDAQ:AGNC) declares $0.22/share monthly dividend, in line with previous.
    • Forward yield 12.29%
    • Payable Feb. 6; for shareholders of record Jan. 30; ex-div Jan. 28.
    | Thu, Jan. 15, 4:15 PM | 13 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 14, 1:17 PM
    • Agency MBS are off to their worst start relative to Treasurys since 1997 as the big drop in interest rates has investors nervous about a surge in refinancing. Returns on paper backed by Fannie, Freddie, or Ginnie Mae are 60 basis points less than those on Treasurys of similar duration so far this month.
    • Also stoking the trend are changes to government programs aimed at making mortgage credit easier to obtain.
    • Earlier today, the MBA reported applications for home-loan refis jumped 66% last week.
    • Prices of agency MBS currently average 106.5 cents on the dollar, meaning owners would lose 6.5% if immediately repaid.
    • Annaly Capital (NLY -1.3%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.2%), Armour Residential (ARR -2%), Two Harbors (TWO -0.9%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR -1.9%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -1.3%), Dynex (DX -0.5%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -1.2%), Anworth (ANH -0.9%), Western Asset (WMC -1.6%).
    | Wed, Jan. 14, 1:17 PM | 41 Comments
  • Mon, Jan. 12, 10:03 AM
    • The mortgage REIT space (REM -0.6%) is cut to Market Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, with Annaly Capital (NLY -0.4%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.2%), CYS Investments (CYS -0.7%), Capstead Mortgage (CMO -0.8%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -0.5%), AG Mortgage (MITT -1.3%), and MFA Financial (MFA -0.3%) - for now - individual names also being cut to Market Weight.
    • It's an interesting move, especially in light of the significant discounts to book value nearly every stock in the sector trades at. The mortgage REITs have been especially notable of late for not being able to make any headway alongside the big rally in bond prices. Lower rates might do something for book values, but the sharply flatter yield curve (which could flatten even more once the Fed begins hiking) doesn't bode well for earnings power.
    • Other ETFs: MORT, MORL
    | Mon, Jan. 12, 10:03 AM | 45 Comments
  • Tue, Jan. 6, 2:17 PM
    • The 10-year yield has plunged all the way down to 1.94% and one would figure on some nice increases in book value for the mortgage REITs (REM -0.1%), but on the flip side are narrowing interest rate spreads (especially as the Fed still seems to be intent on hiking short rates), and what hedging losses the companies are taking.
    • Other ETFs: MORT, MORL
    • Individual names: Annaly Capital (NLY +0.4%), American Capital Agency (AGNC), Armour Residential (ARR -1%), CYS Investments (CYS -0.2%), Invesco Mortgage (IVZ -2.7%), New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT -0.5%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -0.3%), Western Asset Mortgage (WMC -2.7%), Ellington Residential (EARN -0.4%), Javelin Mortgage (JMI -3%).
    | Tue, Jan. 6, 2:17 PM | 20 Comments
  • Dec. 30, 2014, 12:37 PM
    • Nearly all the mREITs sell at discounts to their most recently disclosed book value, with sector giants Annaly Mortgage (NYSE:NLY) and American Capital Agency (NASDAQ:AGNC) trading at double-digit discounts.
    • Often a sizable haircut to book may make sense, as in the case of Armour Residential (NYSE:ARR) and Javelin Mortgage (NYSE:JMI), both of which just cut their dividend (they have the same external manager).
    • Of the 24 companies examined, New York Mortgage Trust (NASDAQ:NYMT) and Capstead Mortgage (NYSE:CMO) stand alone in trading at premiums to book value.
    • The full list
    | Dec. 30, 2014, 12:37 PM | 10 Comments
  • Dec. 15, 2014, 4:07 PM
    • American Capital Agency (NASDAQ:AGNC) declares $0.22/share monthly dividend, in line with previous.
    • Forward yield 12.07%
    • Payable Jan. 9; for shareholders of record Dec. 31; ex-div Dec. 29.
    | Dec. 15, 2014, 4:07 PM | 5 Comments
  • Dec. 9, 2014, 12:57 PM
    • Unable to catch a bid for a few sessions, mortgage REITs (REM +1%) have turned higher in afternoon action, led by Annaly (NLY +0.7%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.5%).
    • Helping are jitters in the stock market (though U.S. averages are well off the lows), and a 10-year Treasury yield that's retreated all the way to 2.21% after hitting the mid-2.30s on the back of Friday's strong jobs number.
    • Armour (ARR +1.1%), Two Harbors (TWO +0.9%), CYS Investments (CYS +1.4%), Invesco (IVR +1.8%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +1%), Hatteras Financial (HTS +2%), Capstead (CMO +2%).
    • Other ETFs: MORT, MORL
    • Also showing some green are the recently beaten-up BDCs, including Prospect Capital (PSEC +0.2%), Fifth Street Finance (FSC +0.2%), Ares Capital (ARCC +0.5%), FS Investment (FSIC), Triangle Capital (TCAP +1.7%).
    • Previously: Money flows back into fixed income (Dec. 9, 2014)
    | Dec. 9, 2014, 12:57 PM | 16 Comments
AGNC vs. ETF Alternatives
Company Description
American Capital Agency Corp is a real estate investment trust that invests exclusively in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations on a leveraged basis.
Sector: Financial
Country: United States