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American Capital Agency Corp. was organized on January 7, 2008, and commenced operations on May 20, 2008 following the completion of our initial public offering (“IPO”). In connection with the IPO, we sold ten million shares of our common stock at $20.00 per share for net proceeds of $186... More
Tuesday, Dec 1011:12 AMMortgage REITs unfazed by Hatteras dividend cut
Tuesday, Dec 1011:12 AM| 15 Comments
- The mREIT sector (REM +1.2%) is up for a 2nd consecutive day, with Hatteras Financial's (HTS +1.5%) 9% dividend cut overnight not hurting the stock and suggesting maybe a lot of bad news has been priced in. Core income in Q3 was $0.44 per share and the new payout is $0.50.
- Another adjustable-rate mortgage player, CYS Investments (CYS +2.4%) is also ahead, as is Capstead Mortgage (CMO +0.9%). Others: Annaly (NLY +1.5%), American Capital (AGNC +1.7%), Invesco (IVR +2.4%), Western Asset (WMC +1.3%).
- Related ETFs: MORT, MORL
Friday, Dec 611:42 AMMinus sector giants, mREITs head higher
Friday, Dec 611:42 AM| 12 Comments
- There's a bit of green spreading across the mREIT sector this morning as Treasurys reverse an early plunge following the strong jobs report - the 10-year yield is now off 3 basis points to 2.85% after climbing to 2.93% just after the 8:30 ET release.
- However, there's no relief for sector leaders Annaly (NLY -1%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.5%), both of which continue to reel following Goldman's Sell recommendation yesterday - each have carved out new 52-week lows this morning. There may be plenty of players in the mREIT sector, but for the institutional big boys who have the Goldman report on their desks, there's just NLY and AGNC. Others in the red include: Armour (ARR -0.7%) and CYS Investments (CYS -1.1%).
- Posting gains: Chimera (CIM +0.8%), Invesco (IVR +0.2%), Hatteras (HTS +0.2%), Dynex (DX +0.7%), New York Mortgage (NYMT +0.3%), Apollo Residential (AMTG +0.7%), Javelin (JMI +1.1%), AG Mortgage Investment (MITT +2.3%).
- Related ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL.
Thursday, Dec 51:17 PMAnnaly and American Capital lead mREIT decline after Sell rating
Thursday, Dec 51:17 PM| 37 Comments
- A check of the mortgage REITs following Goldman's interestingly-timed initiation of Annaly (NLY -1.6%) and American Capital Mortgage (AGNC -1.1%) with Sells finds the sector (REM -0.8%) again underperforming the broad market.
- To review: Annaly is off about 40% in 8 months and American Capital is off about 42% in 7 months. Yes, higher interest rates have delivered a hit to their portfolios (which tend to be longish in duration), but investor distaste for the names also has both trading at roughly 20% discounts to their book values.
- So is the call late? Maybe. On the other hand, one well-known hedge funder defines a 50% loss as holding a stock that goes from being down 80% to being down 90%.
- Other names of interest: CYS Investments (CYS -0.4%), Western Asset (WMC -1%).
- Related ETFs: MORT, MORL
Thursday, Dec 57:45 AMBells ringing on mortgage REITs? Goldman says Sell
Thursday, Dec 57:45 AM| 60 Comments
- Initiating coverage on the sector giants, Goldman sees both Annaly (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC) as Sells.
- "We expect book value to fall as rates rise and MBS spreads to widen post Fed tapering," says analyst Eric Beardsley, giving NLY a $9.50 price target. With management taking actions to protect said book value such as moving into short-duration assets and boosting hedges, expect more earnings headwinds and dividend cuts of about 40%. An expected dividend of $0.80 per share is an 8% yield based on the current stock price. Total return of 2% over the next year compares to 10% Beardsley expects for the overall mREIT sector (REM).
- It's the same story for AGNC which gets an $18.50 price target. Beardsley expects book value to fall 15% to $21.39 by Q4 next year and the dividend to drop to $2 - a 10% yield based on the current stock price. He sees total return of 4% over the next year, again compared to 10% for the overall sector.
- Related ETFs: MORL, MORT
Monday, Dec 23:48 PMNo bid for mortgage REITS as yields rise
Monday, Dec 23:48 PM| 36 Comments
- There's no mercy for the mREIT sector (REM -1.6%) as this morning's strong economic data sends the 10-year Treasury yield five basis points higher to 2.80%. Among the new 52-week lows today are sector giants Annaly (NLY -1.6%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.8%).
- Also down sharply are Armour (ARR -2.4%), CYS Investments (CYS -2.4%), Dynex (DX -2.5%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -2.8%), AG Mortgage (MITT -2.4%), and Arlington Asset (AI -3.1%).
- Management matters, and investors have clearly lost some faith in the leadership of Annaly and American Capital - both of which trade at more than 20% discounts to book value. The newest favorite is that of Ellington Financial (EFC), where management has mostly been able to preserve book value this year. Company structure may have helped too - Ellington is a partnership, not a REIT and has somewhat more flexibility with its portfolio. The stock trades at just a 6% discount to October 31 reported book.
- ETFs: MORT, MORL
Saturday, Nov 309:42 AMGundlach: Time to buy interest rate risk
Saturday, Nov 309:42 AM| 60 Comments
- "People are absolutely freaking out about interest-rate risk," says Jeff Gundlach, sitting down with Robert Shiller to size up the investment landscape. Ever the contrarian, Gundlach suggests last year's 1.4% low in the 10-year Treasury yield could still get taken out. The catalyst? "You never know until after the fact; otherwise, it would be priced in the market. But there is no inflation."
- The see "freaking out" in a picture, check out the price charts of the mortgage REITs, particularly the two proxies for riding the long end of the curve - Annaly (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC). Gundlach: "You can take advantage of pockets of opportunity in what people don't want ... If you're willing to take the interest-rate [risk], you can get yields of 11% in the agency mortgage market."
- Constructive on housing (but not homebuilders), Gundlach is also bullish on non-agency mortgage paper, calling it the cheapest sector in fixed income on a risk-adjusted basis. Fans of also beaten-up non-agency mREITs like American Capital Mortgage (MTGE), MFA Financial, Dynex (DX), and Two Harbors (TWO) may want to take notice.
- Mortgage REIT ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL
- Long-duration Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, TLH, ZROZ, SBND, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, LBND, TENZ, TYBS, DLBL
Tuesday, Nov 261:54 PMAnnaly leads more declines in mREITs
Tuesday, Nov 261:54 PM| 44 Comments
- At what point do you just liquidate the portfolio? Habits die hard and traders used to hitting the sell button on the mREITs (REM -0.5%) are doing so again today even as interest rates slide a bit.
- Hitting another multi-year low today, Annaly (NLY -1.3%) - with a portfolio of very liquid assets heavily hedged against rising rates - is now selling for 20% less than September 30's reported book value.
- American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.8%) - with an equally liquid hedged portfolio - is also at about a 20% discount. Previous: CIO Kain promises to continue buybacks at this discounted level.
- Other agency players: Hatteras (HTS -1%), CYS (CYS -1.4%), Capstead (CMO -1%).
- Non-agency mREITs are slipping as well - even as Case-Shiller reports continued solid gains in home prices (which should boost portfolio values). Two Harbors (TWO -1.5%), MFA (MFA -1.4%), Western Asset (WMC -1.1%).
- ETFs: MORT, MORL
Friday, Nov 223:11 PMMortgage REITs continue to slide
Friday, Nov 223:11 PM| 8 Comments
- A nice backup in rates (the 10-year Treasury yield is off 4 bps to 2.75%) is of no help to the mortgage REITs (REM -0.3%), with sector kingpins Annaly (NLY -1.4%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.2%) both hunkered down (NLY earnings call, AGNC earnings call) for the Fed taper, and both hitting 52-week lows today.
- Earlier this week, AGNC and MTGE CIO Gary Kain took his case all the way to Asia at the Citi financial services conference in Hong Kong (transcript). Yes, book value has been hit by higher rates, but also by how much the market is willing to pay for it. Whereas AGNC traded at an average of 110%-120% of book over the past 4-5 years, it's now at sub-90%.
- Discounts can last for awhile, he admits, but also reminds this isn't some opaque bank balance sheet, but instead an easily valued, highly liquid portfolio of assets trading at $0.85-$0.90 on the dollar. As long as it persists, American Capital will continue selling MBS for $1 and buying back stock at a discount.
- Previous: Kain makes a similar case
- Related ETFs: MORT, MORL
- Other sector stocks: Armour (ARR), Two Harbors (TWO -0.8%), CYS (CYS +0.1%), AG Mortgage (MITT -0.5%)
Thursday, Nov 148:36 AMKain's co-CIO departs American Capital Mortgage
Thursday, Nov 148:36 AM| 11 Comments
- Gary Kain's co-chief investment officer at American Capital Mortgage (MTGE) - Jeff Winkler - has resigned from the company, effective yesterday.
- The entire mREIT (REM) industry has struggled this year, particularly MTGE and cousin American Capital Agency (AGNC), which - for the moment - have given up the management premiums they used to enjoy.
- SEC Form 8-K
Wednesday, Nov 133:57 PMKain focused on buybacks while stock's below book
Wednesday, Nov 133:57 PM| 9 Comments
- When agency mREITs trade at discounts to book value, it's a lot different than a bank or insurance company trading at a discount, says American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.6%) CIO Gary Kain, speaking at the BofA financial services conference (transcript) (slides). Why? Because the assets held at an agency REIT are fairly easy to mark, and they're easy/liquid to trade. The benefit of selling mortgages and buying back stock is pretty clear.
- "We stressed on our call that we ... clearly believe that we should be buying back stock in an environment such as this and taking advantage of the liquidity of our assets ... We will continue to pay a lot of attention to the ability to monetize price to book discount," not just at AGNC, but at American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +0.5%).
Monday, Nov 114:28 PMCheap mREIT sector could get cheaper
Monday, Nov 114:28 PM| 27 Comments
- After Q2's shock, earnings maximization turned to book value preservation, says Nomura's Bill Carcache, but the market isn't rewarding management teams for this at the moment. "We have no confidence getting back in now in hopes that shares will begin their climb back toward book value ... 30-year MBS is not an asset class we want to own ahead of [tapering]."
- Hedge books may offer some protection, he says, but at quarter-end American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.8%), Annaly (NLY -2.3%), and CYS Investments (CYS -0.5%) held 43%, 80%, and 42% of their portfolios in 30-year MBS, respectively.
- American Capital is of particular interest given the "management premium" its CIO Gary Kain has enjoyed. "This quarter’s review made it clear to us that traditional active managers have no edge and are holding back to see how the mortgage market reacts to Fed tapering." Ouch.
- Given the above, Nomura thinks a 15% discount to book value is entirely appropriate for the agency players and lowers its price target accordingly on AGNC and NLY. CYS has its price target nudged higher as it's already below 85% of book.
- Earlier today: Annaly de-levered and heavily hedged.
- Previous: AGNC's Kain hunkers down.
- Previous: CYS's Kevin Grant is perhaps a bit more aggressive.
- Relevant ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL.
Friday, Nov 89:51 AMMortgage REITs take out new lows post-jobs report
Friday, Nov 89:51 AM| 8 Comments
- Sharply higher interest rates has a number of mREITs (REM -2.4%) hitting new 52-week lows. Most of the stocks were already on the defensive over the past few sessions following near-universally disappointing Q3 results.
- Annaly (NLY -3.3%), American Capital (AGNC -2.9%), (MTGE -2.5%), Armour (ARR -3.7%), Invesco (IVR -3%), CYS Investments (CYS -5.3%), Hatteras (HTS -3%).
- Other related ETFs: MORT, MORL.
- Earlier: Big beat on jobs number sends Treasury prices south.
Tuesday, Oct 293:23 PMTwo sell-siders offer tepid defense of American Capital
Tuesday, Oct 293:23 PM| Comment!
- "A good quarter, all things considered," says Nomura's Bill Carcache, maintaining his Hold rating and $22 price target on American Capital Agency (AGNC -8.7%) after Q3 results. Carcache seems copacetic with CIO Kain's defensive stance - a view not shared by all, judging by the earnings call and the direction of the stock today.
- KBW, meanwhile, maintains its Buy rating, but cuts the price target to $25.50 from $27. The team sees Kain loosening up on his "fully hedged" stance and lifting earnings power "north of the $0.80 dividend."
- You take what you get when you buy an actively managed mREIT like AGNC, says Nomura. Some quarters are going to be terrific, and others - like Q3 - will have a ton of activity with little to show for it.
- AGNC continues to be a major drag on the sector (REM -3.7%). Other names: Two Harbors (TWO -2.6%), Hatteras (HTS -2.9%), Anworth (ANH -3.8%), Western Asset (WMC -2.6%), Ellington (EFC -1.9%), (EARN -3%), AG Mortgage Investment (MITT -5.1%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -4.9%).
Tuesday, Oct 2911:43 AMKain not yet ready to take up leverage
Tuesday, Oct 2911:43 AM| 1 Comment
- While the near-term outlook for MBS is very Fed-dependent, longer-term the picture is far clearer, says American Capital Agency (AGNC -8.5%) CIO Gary Kain on the earnings call. Looking 2-5 years out, the Fed will no longer be the gorilla in the MBS market, and banks (due to capital requirements) will also be less present. The result will be far better ROE on new investments. "We want to be sure that we have substantial capital to put to work in that environment."
- CC webcast and presentation slides here.
- Short-term, Kain sees taxable income likely to remain under pressure in Q4 as portfolio repositioning will require security sales and the booking of losses. He reiterates the company's intention to continue to buy back shares as long as they remain substantially under book value. The current price is about a 13% discount (growing as call goes on) to September 30 reported book value of $25.27.
- No one's asked about the dividend, but management's apparent commitment to continue to hunker down suggests a cut is coming. Why are you playing defense, asks one call participant who disagrees with the company's near-certainty that the taper is coming. Management gets paid to create alpha, he says, not clip coupons. Kain's response: What happens if you're holding 30-year paper and the December employment report comes in strong?
- Q3 results from last night.
Tuesday, Oct 299:20 AMAmerican Capital and Armour results chill mREIT sector
Tuesday, Oct 299:20 AM| 3 Comments
- The first post-earnings downgrade for American Capital Agency (AGNC) comes from BAML, which removes its Buy rating. The quick take from the company's results (reported last night) shows CIO Gary Kain lightening up the portfolio and shortening duration just as the bond market was set to reverse course and move sharply higher. Today's 11 ET conference call should prove a worthy listen. AGNC -4.7% premarket.
- Armour Residential results show pretty much the same thing, with the book dropping to $16.7B from $22.6B a quarter earlier. ARR -4.1%.
- Other agency players premarket: Annaly (NLY) -1.9%, CYS Investments (CYS) -0.8%.
- Kain's non-agency vehicle: American Capital Mortgage (MTGE) -4.3%.
- ETFs: REM -0.6%. Also: MORT, MORL.
Monday, Oct 284:18 PMAmerican Capital results disappoint
Monday, Oct 284:18 PM| 17 Comments
- Adding in "other comprehensive income" such as net unrealized gains on marked-to-market investments yields $0.45 comprehensive income per share. Q2 dividend was $0.80 per share. Estimated undistributed taxable income falls to $0.57 per share from $1.07.
- Book value per share of $25.27 off 0.9% from $25.51 at the end of Q2, and vs. this afternoon's close of $23.89, putting the shares at a 5.5% discount.
- Net interest spread of 1.20% is down 29 basis points from Q2. Including estimated TBA dollar roll income/loss, net interest spread of 1.14% is off 72 bps from Q2.
- $77.8B portfolio at end of quarter with 7.2x "at risk" leverage, down from 8.5x at end of Q2.
- CIO Kain: "We continued to migrate the portfolio into shorter maturity securities, lowered leverage somewhat, and maintained relatively high hedge ratios ... We have gradually been increasing our duration gap and begun to transition in the direction of a more normal balance between risk and return."
- 11.9M shares repurchased during Q at average price of $22.16 each - an approximate 13% discount to net book value.
- Q3 results, press release.
- Earnings call tomorrow at 11 ET.
- AGNC -4.8% AH.