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AGNC

American Capital Agency Corp.

5/21/2013, 8:10 AM ET

Quote & Headlines Market Currents StockTalk

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Friday, May 17, 8:27 AM "The issue isn't if the Fed exits, it's a question of whether they exit way earlier than expected," American Capital (AGNC) CIO Gary Kain tells Bloomberg, feeling his portfolio is better positioned now than in Q1, when higher rates took a chunk out of book value. The Fed will be "extremely slow" in its withdrawal, says KBW's Mike Widner. "That spells an environment that actually gets better for the mREITs (MORT, REM) before it gets worse." 14 Comments [Financials]
Wednesday, May 15, 10:05 AM The mortgage REIT sector (MORT -1%) continues under pressure, today led by Western Asset Mortgage (WMC -7.6%) as its book value blew up in Q1 thanks to portfolio losses. American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.5%) - which started the downturn when it reported losses 2 weeks ago - nears a 52-week low, Armour Residential (ARR -3.1%) hits one. One trader suggests Capstead Mortgage (CMO -1.4%) with a portfolio of mostly reset ARMs the least affected by rising rates. CYS Investments (CYS -0.7%) - trading at a 10% discount to book and also owning ARMs - is attractive as well. 18 Comments [Financials, Quick Ideas]
Monday, May 13, 12:43 PM The mortgage REITs are lit up bright red (MORT -1.9%), again led by American Capital Agency (AGNC -3.5%) and American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -3%), with Annaly (NLY -3.1%) not far behind. Yes, the 10-year Treasury yield is a 3 bps higher, but there's also rare action in Fed Funds futures, now pricing in a whopping 50 bps in rate hikes by this time 2016. AGNC presents at the JMP Conference at 2 ET. 39 Comments [Financials, On the Move]
Friday, May 10, 2:39 PM Gary Kain-led American Capital Agency (AGNC -2.8%) and American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -2%) lead the decline in an all-red mREIT sector (MORT -1%) today, with AGNC taking out its post-earnings low from last week. On the earnings call, Kain said upward pressure on rates had cooled to start Q2 and book value was headed higher, but markets may not be cooperating. The 10-year yield is up 8 bps today to a near 2-month high. Others: Annaly (NLY -1.2%), Invesco (IVR -1.2%), MFA (MFA -1.8%), Western Asset (WMC -1.3%). 12 Comments [Financials, On the Move]
Monday, May 6, 9:50 AM More sell-side on the mREITS (MORT): Maxim keeps a Buy with $33 PT on AGNC expecting the annual dividend to be maintained at $5/share thanks to $1.08 of undistributed taxable income in the kitty (KBW agrees). Jefferies is cautious, calling AGNC's Q1 tale an example of how even a well-run mREIT can run afoul. "Price and extension risk inherent in agency MBS (NLY, HTS, CYS, CMO, ANH, ARR, WMC) today are risks most investors underestimate." 10 Comments [Financials]
Monday, May 6, 9:17 AM American Capital Agency (AGNC) and CYS Investments are downgraded to Hold at Nomura following AGNC's ugly Q1 (CYS also had a substantial decline in BV during Q1). Analyst Bill Carcache notes "mortgage market dynamics are increasingly volatile and unpredictable," with AGNC in double-trouble thanks to complacency about prepayment risk. AGNC +0.9%, CYS -0.7% premarket. 5 Comments [Financials]
Sunday, May 5, 12:55 PM Taking a bow for his mid-March call laying out American Capital Agency's (AGNC) quarter 6 weeks ahead of the earnings release, SA Pro's Dane Bowler - in as lucid an explanation (embargoed until Monday afternoon) of agency REITs as you're likely to find - says a cut in the annual dividend to the sustainable level of $3.50/share (30% below current) and a stock price of $25.50 would turn him bullish again. 7 Comments [Financials, Quick Ideas]
Friday, May 3, 4:13 PM More on American Capital Mortgage Investment (MTGE) Q1 earnings: Like sister company AGNC (also with Gary Kain as CIO), MTGE reports a big mark-to-market loss ($1.66/share) on agency MBS. Loss partially offset by $0.64 gain on non-agency holdings. Spread income of $0.62 - NIM of 2.01%, off 6 bps from Q4. Book value of $24.25/share, down 5.8% from Dec. 31. Shares -2.3% AH after 3.5% loss in regular session. (PR) 20 Comments [Earnings, Financials, On the Move]
Friday, May 3, 11:19 AM The upward pressure on rates that caused Q1's losses has reversed, says AGNC CIO Gary Kain on the earnings call, and the decline in book value partly reversed in April (don't speak too soon Mr. Kain, the 10-year yield is up 10 bps today). Kain has taken advantage of lower MBS prices to add to the company's portfolio. Prepayments and dollar rolls remained benign in Q1, and Kain expects them to remain so. (slides) 8 Comments [Financials, Breaking News, On the Move]
Friday, May 3, 11:00 AM American Capital Agency (AGNC -7%) is not far off session lows as the earnings call is set to get underway momentarily (webcast) (slides). Anybody selling or short may want to prepare themselves for CIO Gary Kain laying out very clearly how the rise in rates and the large secondary hurt Q1, but that book value has already strongly rebounded in Q2. 10 Comments [Financials, On the Move, Breaking News]
Friday, May 3, 9:10 AM Premarket gainers: PKT +32%. YRCW +27%. INVN +18%. YY +8%. DDD +5%.
Losers: VCRA -35%. ZAGG -24%. GUID -23%. CHE -16%. ARNA -13%. CETV -13%. HMY -9%. LNKD -9%. AGNC -6%. RBS -6%. 3 Comments [On the Move]
Thursday, May 2, 9:17 PM Swept up in the hit to American Capital Agency (AGNC -8.3% AH) is its sister firm American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -5.4% AH). MTGE differs from AGNC in that it invests in non-agency MBS as well as agency paper, but both share Gary Kain as CIO. AGNC's conference call is set for Friday at 11 ET - how much did February's dilutive secondary hit the Q1 numbers? 29 Comments [Financials, On the Move]
Thursday, May 2, 4:19 PM More on American Capital Agency (AGNC) Q1 earnings: Comprehensive loss of $1.57/share includes $0.64 of net income and $2.21 loss on marked-to-market investments. Book value dives to $28.93 from $31.64 on Dec. 31. CIO Kain: "Specified mortgage securities also materially underperformed ... (and) led to the decline in our book value." Shares -2.4% to $32.32 AH. (PR) 15 Comments [Earnings, Financials]
Thursday, May 2, 4:09 PM American Capital Agency (AGNC): Q1 "comprehensive" EPS of -$1.57 may not be comparable to profit estimate of $1.08. Shares -1.8% AH. (PR) 16 Comments [Earnings, Financials, Breaking News]
Thursday, May 2, 12:10 AM Notable earnings after Thursday’s close: ACLS, ACTV, ADNC, AGNC, AIG, ALSK, AREX, ARNA, ATHN, BBG, BCOR, BERY, BRKR, CBI, CNQ, DNB, DOLE, DRIV, EGO, ELON, ELX, FBHS, FLR, FLT, GEOS, GHDX, GILD, GMED, GTY, HAIN, HI, HMA, HTGC, INVN, KOG, KRFT, LNKD, MKH, MTZ, MYL, NBIX, NFG, NILE, NSR, ONNN, OPEN, PKT, PWER, QLGC, SKUL, SPF, SPWR, SWN, TDC, THOR, TPX, TSYS, TTMI, WTW, WWWW, XL, ZAGG Comment! [Earnings]
Wednesday, May 1, 5:35 PM Notable earnings after Thursday’s close: ACLS, ACTV, ADNC, AGNC, AIG, ALSK, AREX, ARNA, ATHN, BBG, BCOR, BERY, BRKR, CBI, CNQ, DNB, DOLE, DRIV, EGO, ELON, ELX, FBHS, FLR, FLT, GEOS, GHDX, GILD, GMED, GTY, HAIN, HI, HMA, HTGC, INVN, KOG, KRFT, LNKD, MKH, MTZ, MYL, NBIX, NFG, NILE, NSR, ONNN, OPEN, PKT, PWER, QLGC, SKUL, SPF, SPWR, SWN, TDC, THOR, TPX, TSYS, TTMI, WTW, WWWW, XL, ZAGG Comment! [Earnings]

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