American International Group Inc. (AIG)

All Comments on AIG

  • commenter
    sumosama
    Oct 14 01:31 PM
    AIG: An Attractive Buy, If... [view article]
    You may be right (comments), but I too am long AIG!!! Reply
  • commenter
    Bo Peng
    Oct 14 10:28 AM
    My Website
    Lehman's CDS Mess: Who's on the Hook? [view article]
    ddavid, if your friend has Lehman bonds, I'm afraid it's not good news. I don't want to cause any misconception or false hope. Those who will be made whole are those who hold the bonds AND bought the CDS protection. If you just have the bonds, you can only get around 10 cents on the dollar back now. I don't know what to say...I just hope Lehman bonds are a small part of her holdings... Reply
  • commenter
    ddavid
    Oct 14 02:13 AM
    Lehman's CDS Mess: Who's on the Hook? [view article]
    Thanks Bo Peng for your article. It helped round out my picture and makes perfect sense. Although there will always be the devil in details, lets hope we can clean up this mess - I do hope your right about Bond Holders will be made whole - I have a dear friend 82 age who counts her bond income to pay for her nursing home & medical expenses. Reply
  • commenter
    Fish Gone
    Bad
    Oct 14 01:22 AM
    My Website
    Combating Cascading Short Spirals [view article]
    The only reason to be in the stock market is to make money.

    Markets move as tidal forces, money moves in, and money moves out. It is as simple as that. The trick is to be on the right side at EVERY given point in time. That said, the US Government can buy up every single bad loan and buy up every single share of every F'd up company on the stock market. This will destroy the dollar. Everything everyone has in the bank and retirement account will literally just vaporize as the dollar is inflated beyond recognition

    AIG is on the hook to pay $225 Billion on Friday, 10/24/2008, in defaulted Lehman guarantees. My guess is that any company throwing lavish parties after getting an $85 Billion dollar loan, is not going to pay their obligation. This is what people who are about to "go under" do. The guy down the street from me has a drinking problem and went broke. Before he went belly up, he bought a new Chevy 2500 truck and ran up all his bills.

    I am on both sides of this long/short argument. I have no idea how things will play out. That said, my best guess is that "crap happens". Plan ahead.

    To anyone reading this. This is not about paper money, it is about toilet paper. In these uncertain times, please just go out and buy what you will need in the near future. Do you use toilet paper? Go out and buy a years worth tomorrow. If you "Threw your money away", it will just be for toilet paper.

    I am your best friend ever (for free).
    Clark Jenkins
    FishGoneBad.com
     Reply
  • commenter
    Strike
    Oct 14 12:41 AM
    General Discussion on AIG
    AIG has already blown up, but the wrong way (= imploded), so it's going to take longer for it to create the confidence in investors that other stocks were already attracting. But when it blows up it'll take everyone by surprise and rise hundreds of percent because it's starting from a very low base.

    I didn't buy AIG for short term profit but for long term capital gain. The $ 2 trillion+ easy credit that has suddenly flooded global markets, combined with AIG's mind-boggling $ 123 billion for itself alone, will increase the value of its assets dramatically and make its restructuring a no-brainer.


    On Oct 13 04:52 PM Fitza wrote:

    > Nice job. Aig didnt really blow up though.     Reply
  • commenter
    Fish Gone
    Bad
    Oct 14 12:19 AM
    My Website
    Not All Preferreds Created Equal [view article]
    Do you know of anyone going bankrupt? They go out and buy lots and lots of stuff. They know they will not have to pay it back and live it up.

    Who do we know that just did that? AIG. They had a half million dollar party in California after getting an $85 billion dollar bailout. It is my understanding that they are on the hook for $225 billion of Lehman loans, and it comes due on 10/24/08. I am thinking that if they need to get bailed out, they are not going to pony up $225 billion.

    But what do I know. I just draw bad cartoons.

    Clark Jenkins
    FishGoneBad.com     Reply
  • commenter
    Fish Gone
    Bad
    Oct 14 12:12 AM
    My Website
    AIG: An Attractive Buy, If... [view article]
    Do you know of anyone going bankrupt? They go out and buy lots and lots of stuff. They know they will not have to pay it back and live it up.

    Who do we know that just did that? AIG. They had a half million dollar party in California after getting an $85 billion dollar bailout. It is my understanding that they are on the hook for $225 billion of Lehman loans, and it comes due on 10/24/08. I am thinking that if they need to get bailed out, they are not going to pony up $225 billion.

    But what do I know. I just draw bad cartoons.

    Clark Jenkins
    FishGoneBad.com     Reply
  • commenter
    JKA
    Oct 13 11:24 PM
    Paulson in a State of Panic [view article]
    Sorry, read the last paragraph:
    Look at RBS shares' performance today after the market finally managed to understand that a potential (not a definitive one) dilution does not necessarily mean loss of equity value.     Reply
  • commenter
    JKA
    Oct 13 11:22 PM
    Paulson in a State of Panic [view article]
    Why are the authorities being so secretive about the whole thing?
    Why are they handpicking a few?
    Why not just copy the British version?
    And then Wall Street worries that a guy like Obama will win the elections!
    A bit of transparency will go a long way to restoring confidence, otherwise they can give away the billions to whomever they like and the market will still nose dive again.
    Look at RBS shares' performance today after the market finally managed that a potential (not a definitive one) does not necessarily mean loss of equity value.     Reply
  • commenter
    Bo Peng
    Oct 13 09:55 PM
    My Website
    Lehman's CDS Mess: Who's on the Hook? [view article]
    Thanks for your generous comments, TimButler.

    My original title was "10/21: The Bottom". Maybe the editor(s) thought it was too provocative? ;>

    Zulu, I think it's sure the world will wake up on 10/22 with fewer hedge funds. But the one thing nobody seems to know is whether some failure could trigger a chain reaction through some derivatives-based amplifier link that nobody has thought of. It's the classical unknown unknown. I just hope somebody with access to more info and in position of power has given this some serious thoughts...

    amarksp, no CDS seller ever has the expected loss fully collateralized. It would kill any economic incentive to sell it, or otherwise the premium would be so high nobody would buy them. Furthermore, the loss on Lehman CDS turned out to be much higher than "expected".     Reply
  • commenter
    james kar
    Oct 13 07:16 PM
    My Website
    Is AIG a Buy Following the Government Bailout? [view article]
    Katako: Thank you for your question. I usually don't check the comments often. If you want a timely response, please ask your questions at my web site. Also, you can check out other ideas.

    To answer your question, even though it seems AIG needs more money than expected as it has draw down more funding, I still expect the stock can do well in the long run. The is particular true as the global central banks are coordinating to stable the financial markets.     Reply
  • commenter
    pathwhispere
    r
    Oct 13 06:09 PM
    My Website
    Paulson in a State of Panic [view article]
    Of course he (and Bernanke) are panicking, they thought it was a game of bluff and they'd never get caught. Reality has a way of smacking people upside their heads. Look at their inconsistency, they're like trapped rats running this way and that.

    First they (the Greenspan Fed) think they've spread the risk to the point that they've created riskfree capitalism. Now they're taking the taxpayers' money to ensure it. Law enforcement should look at these two conartists.

    pathwhisperer.wordpres.../     Reply
  • commenter
    User 278642
    Oct 13 05:59 PM
    The Greatest Short Sale in History [view article]
    Can some please let me know how to short-sale long-term government bonds (i.e. etf, etc.)?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!... Reply
  • commenter
    amarksp
    Oct 13 05:11 PM
    Lehman's CDS Mess: Who's on the Hook? [view article]
    Appears that cash and collateral may have been posted in the normal course of business prior to the 10/21/08 settlement date.
    online.wsj.com/article...

    "The actual cash payments that sellers have to make in the coming days will be significantly lower, because many firms had already posted cash or collateral to their counterparties on the contracts prior to last week's auction. In addition, most banks and financial institutions had both bought and sold swaps on Lehman's debt, so some of their profits and losses would offset each other."

    I do agree with you that the total amount will be well over the $6B cited by DTCC. However, note this article:
    seekingalpha.com/artic...     Reply
  • commenter
    Fitza
    Oct 13 04:52 PM
    General Discussion on AIG
    Nice job. Aig didnt really blow up though. Reply
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