Fri, May 1, 10:18 AM
- Q1 pro forma FFO of $0.52 up from $0.50 one year ago. Adjusted FFO of $0.46 vs. $0.43. Adjusted FFO takes out capital replacement spending and it's lower this year thanks to the sale of about 9K apartments last year. The concentration of capital on higher-quality units mean cap replacements decline as a percentage of NOI.
- Average revenue per apartment of $1,652 up 4.3% Y/Y. Average daily occupancy of 95.9% up 10 basis points. Expenses of $57.3M up 2.9%. NOI of $114.8M up 5.2%.
- Weighted average rent increases in Q1 of 2.8%.
- Full-year pro forma FFO guidance is boosted to by $0.02 on both ends to $2.14-$2.24. AFFO guidance is lifted by $0.02 to $1.82-$1.92. NOI growth is upped to 4.5-5.5% from 4-5.5%. Q2 pro forma FFO guidance of $0.51-$0.55. AFFO of $0.42-$0.46.
- Earnings call at 1 ET
- Previously: Apartment Investment beats by $0.01, beats on revenue (April 30)
- AIV +2.5%
Thu, Apr. 30, 4:31 PM| Comment!
Wed, Apr. 29, 5:35 PM
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Wed, Apr. 29, 5:09 PM
Wed, Apr. 22, 10:02 AM
- Deals in the REIT space are picking up steam, with the latest being today's sale of Associated Estates to a Brookfield fund for $2.5B. Associated Estates has been under activist pressure for a number of months, and one wonders if any other apartment names might be next in line.
- Sector giants Equity Residential (EQR +1.3%), AvalonBay (AVB +1.2%), and Essex Property (ESS +1.2%) don't seem like likely targets, but are nicely higher on the session.
- Others: Post Properties (PPS +1.7%), UDR (UDR +1.6%), Aimco (AIV +1.3%), Camden Property (CPT +1.2%), Home Properties (HME +1.4%), Mid-America Apartments (MAA +1.1%), Investors Real Estate (IRET +0.8%).
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, DRN, URE, SCHH, ICF, SRS, RWR, KBWY, DRV, REK, FRI, FTY, PSR, FREL, WREI
Thu, Apr. 9, 3:24 PM
- A weak 30-year bond auction has long-term Treasury yields on the move higher, with the 10-year up five basis points to 1.96%. One also can't help but notice a recent uptick in capital raising among the equity REITs.
- Realty Income (O -2.2%), Agree Realty (ADC -2.2%), Omega Healthcare (OHI -4%), Medical Properties Trust (MPW -2.5%), W.P. Carey (WPC -2.2%), Duke Realty (DRE -2.5%), Essex Property (ESS -2.9%), Aimco (AIV -3%), Simon Property (SPG -2.4%), Kimco (KIM -2.9%), Inland Real Estate (IRC -3%), DDR Corp (DDR -2.3%), Sovran Self Storage (SSS -2.2%), Washington Real Estate (WRE -4%), Digital Realty Trust (DLR -2%), Hospitality Properties (HPT -2.6%), Ashford Hospitality (AHT -2.4%), Stag Industrial (STAG -4.6%), American Campus (ACC -2.3%).
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, DRN, URE, SRS, ICF, SCHH, RWR, KBWY, DRV, REK, FRI, FTY, PSR, WREI, FREL
- Previously: Treasury yields on the rise after weak 30-year auction (April 9)
Thu, Apr. 9, 10:30 AM
- "We expect apartment fundamentals to remain stronger for longer given favorable demographics, solid job and wage growth, little impact from for-sale housing, and lower gasoline costs," says analyst Robert Stevenson, anticipating renters will continue to absorb 5%+ rental rate hikes this year.
- His two favorite names in apartment REITs are Home Properties (HME -1.1%) and Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA -1.5%) - they're the cheapest in the sector, he says, and he sees no reason to pay a premium price for others with similar growth characteristics.
- Risks: Spiking long-term bond yields and oversupply, but Stevenson believes the apartment companies are better-positioned to deal with both than the rest of the residential REIT sector.
- Bullish on HME and MAA, Stevenson gives Neutral ratings to Aimco (AIV -1.5%), AvalonBay (AVB -1.6%), Camden Property (CPT -1.5%), Equity Residential (EQR -1.7%), Essex Property (ESS -1.7%), Post Properties (PPS -1%), and UDR (UDR -1.7%).
- Source: Barron's
Wed, Apr. 8, 10:28 AM| Comment!
Thu, Mar. 19, 4:34 PM
- S&P lifts Aimco (AIV) to a BBB- credit from BB+ previously. The outlook remains stable.
- CFO Ernie Freedman notes the upgrade came sooner than management expected, and the investment grade rating allows for the company to raise unsecured money - though the company doesn't anticipate doing so.
- Source: Press Release
Wed, Mar. 18, 3:28 PM
- The Fed earlier cuts its forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, and the pace of rate hikes. Alongside, it also lowered NAIRU - the level at which unemployment threatens accelerating inflation.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 13 basis points to 1.92% following the news, sending the board averages to near-1.5% gains, but the strongest names are the equity REITs.
- IYR +2.3%
- National Retail Properties (NNN +3%), Spirit Realty (SRC +3.1%), Senior Housing Properties (SNH +2.1%), Healthcare Trust of America (HTA +2.9%), Equity Commonwealth (EQC +2.7%), Gramercy Property (GPT +3.2%), Post Properties (PPS +3.9%), Aimco (AIV +2.6%), Kimco (KIM +2.8%), DDR Corp (DDR +2.4%), Public Storage (PSA +2%), Government Properties (GOV +1.9%), First Potomac Realty (FPO +3%), Digital Realty Trust (DLR +1.5%), Sunstone Hotel (SHO +2%), Liberty Property (LPT +2.4%), American Campus (ACC +2.5%)
- Previously: Day's biggest news: Fed sharply cuts "normal" unemployment rate (March 18)
- Previously: FOMC drops "patient," but sends dovish signal (March 18)
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, DRN, URE, SRS, ICF, SCHH, RWR, KBWY, DRV, REK, FRI, FTY, PSR, WREI, FREL
Tue, Mar. 17, 9:56 AM
- Launching coverage on the multi-family sector, Baird starts UDR (UDR -0.1%), Camden Property (CPT -0.1%), Mid-America Apartment (MAA +0.5%), and Aimco (AIV) at Outperform.
- Started at Neural are AvalonBay (AVB -0.3%), Post Properties (PPS -0.7%), Essex Property (ESS -0.2%), and Equity Residential (EQR -0.7%).
- Manufactured housing community operator Sun Communities (SUI +0.2%) rates a Neutral, as do campus housing players American Campus Communities (ACC) and Education Realty (EDR -0.2%).
- Equity Lifestyle Properties (ELS -0.6%) is started at Outperform.
Wed, Feb. 18, 12:47 PM
- Including dividends, apartment REITs returned 39.7% in 2014, the best among all real estate sectors, according to Nareit, which says REITs overall returned a still-pleasing 28%.
- REITs in general have cooled of late - off 1.7% in February, with apartments off 1.1% as some analysts ring the register.
- Morgan Stanley's Haendel St. Juste says slowing growth combined with pricey stock prices isn't the best combination. He notes the names are trading at 10-15% premiums to NAV vs. 10-15% discounts one year ago.
- Then there's oversupply, especially in company towns like D.C. and in the Texas oil belt. Over the past six months, builders have broken ground on multifamily apartments at an average pace of 357K units per year - 26% more than the 30-year average.
- Names of interest: EQR, AVB, ESS, PPS, UDR, AIV, CPT. HME, MAA, TSRE, AEC, IRET
Thu, Feb. 5, 5:11 PM| Comment!
Wed, Feb. 4, 5:35 PM
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Wed, Jan. 28, 12:23 PM
- Expect plenty of foreign capital to continue flowing into the sector, says MLV analyst Ryan Meliker. This will contribute to cap rate compression, making it more difficult for REITs to make accretive purchases.
- The West Coast should lead the country in job generation, and thus rent growth, making Essex Property Trust (ESS) - essentially a pure-play on major markets there - an interesting pick.
- The Northeast is split - with Boston and NYC expected to outperform on rent growth, but Philadelphia, Baltimore, and D.C. predicted to lag.
- Strength in the Southeast will be led by Atlanta, and Central and South Florida. Meliker's top pick, Preferred Apartments (APTS +0.6%) has a strong presence in Atlanta.
- "Conference participants agreed that Houston was in for difficult times ahead – there was no sugar coating how oil prices might affect job growth and therefore demand for multifamily housing."
- Others of interest: Aimco (AIV +0.6%), Associated Estates (AEC +3.1%), AvalonBay (AVB -0.2%), Post Properties (PPS +0.3%), UDR (UDR +0.3%), Camden Property (CPT -0.3%), Home Properties (HME +0.2%), Mid-America (MAA +0.1%), Trade Street Residential (TSRE -0.6%), Equity Residential (EQR +0.3%).
Tue, Jan. 27, 4:38 PM
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