Wed, Mar. 18, 3:28 PM
- The Fed earlier cuts its forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, and the pace of rate hikes. Alongside, it also lowered NAIRU - the level at which unemployment threatens accelerating inflation.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 13 basis points to 1.92% following the news, sending the board averages to near-1.5% gains, but the strongest names are the equity REITs.
- IYR +2.3%
- National Retail Properties (NNN +3%), Spirit Realty (SRC +3.1%), Senior Housing Properties (SNH +2.1%), Healthcare Trust of America (HTA +2.9%), Equity Commonwealth (EQC +2.7%), Gramercy Property (GPT +3.2%), Post Properties (PPS +3.9%), Aimco (AIV +2.6%), Kimco (KIM +2.8%), DDR Corp (DDR +2.4%), Public Storage (PSA +2%), Government Properties (GOV +1.9%), First Potomac Realty (FPO +3%), Digital Realty Trust (DLR +1.5%), Sunstone Hotel (SHO +2%), Liberty Property (LPT +2.4%), American Campus (ACC +2.5%)
- Previously: Day's biggest news: Fed sharply cuts "normal" unemployment rate (March 18)
- Previously: FOMC drops "patient," but sends dovish signal (March 18)
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, DRN, URE, SRS, ICF, SCHH, RWR, KBWY, DRV, REK, FRI, FTY, PSR, WREI, FREL
Tue, Mar. 17, 9:56 AM
- Launching coverage on the multi-family sector, Baird starts UDR (UDR -0.1%), Camden Property (CPT -0.1%), Mid-America Apartment (MAA +0.5%), and Aimco (AIV) at Outperform.
- Started at Neural are AvalonBay (AVB -0.3%), Post Properties (PPS -0.7%), Essex Property (ESS -0.2%), and Equity Residential (EQR -0.7%).
- Manufactured housing community operator Sun Communities (SUI +0.2%) rates a Neutral, as do campus housing players American Campus Communities (ACC) and Education Realty (EDR -0.2%).
- Equity Lifestyle Properties (ELS -0.6%) is started at Outperform.
Wed, Feb. 18, 12:47 PM
- Including dividends, apartment REITs returned 39.7% in 2014, the best among all real estate sectors, according to Nareit, which says REITs overall returned a still-pleasing 28%.
- REITs in general have cooled of late - off 1.7% in February, with apartments off 1.1% as some analysts ring the register.
- Morgan Stanley's Haendel St. Juste says slowing growth combined with pricey stock prices isn't the best combination. He notes the names are trading at 10-15% premiums to NAV vs. 10-15% discounts one year ago.
- Then there's oversupply, especially in company towns like D.C. and in the Texas oil belt. Over the past six months, builders have broken ground on multifamily apartments at an average pace of 357K units per year - 26% more than the 30-year average.
- Names of interest: EQR, AVB, ESS, PPS, UDR, AIV, CPT. HME, MAA, TSRE, AEC, IRET
Thu, Feb. 5, 5:11 PM
Wed, Feb. 4, 5:35 PM
- ACET, ACLS, ADNC, AHL, AIV, ARCW, ASEI, ASYS, ATHN, ATR, ATVI, BCOV, BEBE, BMI, BRKS, BRS, BWLD, CALD, CME, CPST, CTRL, CUTR, DCT, DV, ECHO, ECOM, EGAN, EGOV, ENH, EXPE, FLDM, FLT, FWM, GPRO, HME, IMPV, KIM, KRG, LF, LGF, LNKD, MCK, MRIN, MTD, MXWL, NTGR, NUAN, OLN, ONNN, OUTR, P, PCTY, PDFS, PDM, PXLW, RDEN, RENT, SIMG, SLH, SPF, SPSC, SRCL, SWIR, SYMC, TPX, TSYS, TWTR, UBNT, UEPS, VRSN, WAIR, YELP, YRCW
Wed, Jan. 28, 12:23 PM
- Expect plenty of foreign capital to continue flowing into the sector, says MLV analyst Ryan Meliker. This will contribute to cap rate compression, making it more difficult for REITs to make accretive purchases.
- The West Coast should lead the country in job generation, and thus rent growth, making Essex Property Trust (ESS) - essentially a pure-play on major markets there - an interesting pick.
- The Northeast is split - with Boston and NYC expected to outperform on rent growth, but Philadelphia, Baltimore, and D.C. predicted to lag.
- Strength in the Southeast will be led by Atlanta, and Central and South Florida. Meliker's top pick, Preferred Apartments (APTS +0.6%) has a strong presence in Atlanta.
- "Conference participants agreed that Houston was in for difficult times ahead – there was no sugar coating how oil prices might affect job growth and therefore demand for multifamily housing."
- Others of interest: Aimco (AIV +0.6%), Associated Estates (AEC +3.1%), AvalonBay (AVB -0.2%), Post Properties (PPS +0.3%), UDR (UDR +0.3%), Camden Property (CPT -0.3%), Home Properties (HME +0.2%), Mid-America (MAA +0.1%), Trade Street Residential (TSRE -0.6%), Equity Residential (EQR +0.3%).
Tue, Jan. 27, 4:38 PM
Wed, Jan. 14, 7:34 AM
- The hot sector is cut to Market Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo amid a big reshuffling of ratings at the bank.
- Names of interest: EQR, AVB, ESS, PPS, UDR, AIV, CPT, HME, MAA, TSRE, AEC, IRET.
- Previously: Sell the net lease REIT sector says Wells Fargo (Jan. 14)
- Previously: Wells Fargo pulls the plug on mortgage REITs (Jan. 12)
Mon, Jan. 12, 4:25 PM
Mon, Jan. 12, 9:39 AM
Wed, Jan. 7, 8:55 AM
- Cashing in its chips on Apartment Investment Management (NYSE:AIV) after a near-50% move higher over the past year, Raymond James downgrades the stock to Outperform from Strong Buy.
- Equity One (NYSE:EQY) and Essex Property Trust (NYSE:ESS) are both downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform. Essex is higher by about 40% over the past year, while Equity One's gains haven't been nearly as impressive as the other three.
Dec. 16, 2014, 10:49 AM
- National annual effective rent growth of 4.7% in November is the strongest result since August 2011, reports Axiometrics.
- Axiometrics' Jay Denton: "The combination of an improving job market, and a growing percentage of the population that prefers renting to owning, continues to boost apartment demand."
- Year-to-date rent growth of 5% makes 2014 the strongest post-recession year. 2010 was the previous high at 4.6%.
- The occupancy rate continued a seasonal decline, but at 94.8% it's the strongest November read since Axiometrics started reporting monthly in 2008.
- Source: Press release
- Interested parties: EQR, AVB, ESS, PPS, UDR, AIV, CPT, HME, MAA, TSRE, AEC, IRET
Dec. 11, 2014, 8:02 AM| Dec. 11, 2014, 8:02 AM | Comment!
Nov. 24, 2014, 2:40 PM
- Expected rent growth of 3.9% in 2015 is a bit slower than this year's 4%, according to the NAR, but it's still about 200 basis points higher than inflation.
- Though anticipated to edge upward, vacancy rates will still be scraping bottom - 4.1% in 2015 and 4.2% in 2015 vs. 4% this year. When vacancy rates are below 5%, it's considered a "landlord's market" in which property owners can continue to hike rents, says the NAR.
- Apartment REITs: Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR), AvalonBay (NYSE:AVB), Essex Property Trust (NYSE:ESS), Post Properties (NYSE:PPS), UDR, Aimco (NYSE:AIV), Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT), Home Properties (NYSE:HME), Mid-America Apartment Communities (NYSE:MAA).
Oct. 31, 2014, 11:02 AM
- Q3 adjusted FFO per share of $0.39 up 11% Y/Y. Same-store NOI of $112.3M up 4.4%.
- Same-store average rent per apartment of $1,434 up 3.7% Y/Y. Average daily occupancy of 95.7% up 20 basis points.
- Q3 renewal rent increases of 5.6%. New lease rent increases of 6.4%.
- Full-year AFFO guidance is narrowed to 1.67-$1.71 vs. $164-$1.74 previously.
- Conference call at 1 ET
- Previously: Apartment Investment FFO in-line, beats on revenue
- AIV +2.75%
Oct. 30, 2014, 4:49 PM
AIV vs. ETF Alternatives
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