Andersons Inc. (ANDE)

All Comments on ANDE

  • commenter
    Grain
    Analyst
    Jul 04 11:56 PM
    Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It [view article]
    You need to look at the numbers again. On June 30th, it was confirmed there will be another 100 million bushels of corn added to the carryout. And you you not overlook 95/96 when the caryout was extreemly low. Stocks below WWII will not happen. There is less than 3 months left in the crop year. Next year I predict the carryout will be under 700 million bushels, but my crop year nearby futures high was established two weeks ago. Note world less US corn and minor course grain production will be up in 2008-09, thus allowing the rest of the worls less dependent on US corn exports, and a rising US $ will help curb exports. Corn for ethanol is forecated to be less than what the USDA forecasts. Look for USDA to lower corn for ethanol usage by 50 and 100 million bushels, resp. on July 11.

    And finally, eveyone has thier own metod on calculating margins. Mine for a dry mill plant for the OH, IL, IN, IA, NE, and SD areas are still positive, so why would any plant not take advantage of this, reagardless of the size of the plant.     Reply
  • commenter
    ubernerd
    Jul 03 02:47 PM
    Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It [view article]
    I like your well thought-out and thouroughly researched responses to some decieving arguments by the Exploit-the-Commons ethanol crowd.
    Thanks, Subsidy Eye.

    As long as we work business as usual, we will certainly be last place on the global technology front.     Reply
  • commenter
    Subsidy Eye
    Jul 01 02:15 AM
    My Website
    Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It [view article]
    "And remember, the government subsidies for ethanol are minor in comparison to those paid to the oil industry."

    Measured how? According to the Energy Information Administration's latest study on "Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in Energy Markets",

    www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/s... ,

    federal subsidies (including tax expenitures) for natural gas and petroleum were $2.15 billion in 2007 (p. xii), against $3.35 billion for biofuels, mainly ethanol (p. xviii). Many people would contend that the EIA's estimate for petroleum is an under-estimate, but so is its estimate for biofuels.

    According to an in-depth study produced for the Global Subsidies Initiative by Doug Koplow (who also authored the 1998 investigation into oil subsidies for Greenpeace),

    www.globalsubsidies.or...

    total federal and state support for ethanol was at least $6.9 billion in 2007, or $1.05 per gallon. In energy terms, that comes to $1.40 per gallon of gasoline equivalent (based on a generous conversion rate of energy equivalence).

    For gasoline to be benefitting from a similar rate of subsidization, total subsidies for gasoline would have to be on the order of $200 billion a year. I know of no credible estimates that place the subsidy anywhere near that.     Reply
  • commenter
    Everyday
    Finance
    Jun 30 11:10 PM
    My Website
    Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It [view article]
    Heck, let's make it 50 comments!
    Note that both stocks are down 7-8% today. Armor starting to crack further? I can only hope this ethanol hoax comes to an end by August expiry; I'll be sitting on 10-15x returns on my out of the money puts.
    Great discourse here by the way;
    Reply
  • commenter
    Hawaii 50
    Jun 30 06:56 PM
    Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It [view article]
    Well you do think locally and not globally as their are other sources of ethanol. There are new technology advancements to keep the ethanol industry from dying. One is the now waste to energy by Syntec. Also water based bacteria with CO2 will make ethanol. Sugar is the best large production choice in warmer climates. The area to grow sugar around the world is the poorest part as it is the tropics.22 degrees up and below the equator. Their future is in ethanol too. Corn will not be a good feedstock in the future. Floods and draughts will affect the prices in The US and nearby, as Mexico has had riots because of tortilla cost. We in the US need this ethanol production not for the green but because Congress will not let more exploration for oil and gas.So the line in the sand is drawn politically and the third world is going gang busters for the profits. If we do not change from food sourced ethanol we are in last place to make it. It is gas stupid, not you the issue. As the corn price comes up at the end of the harvest, who will change their process to keep profitable? It was a green idea now it is an inflation issue so if we want better prices ethanol must keep up with demand. Ethanol is now around $2.80/Gal on the market and sold at gas prices in the blend. That also has a tax credit of $.51 to blend it, so big oil companies love it. $1 less to buy than wholesale gas, tax incentives, laws to make you buy it, and farmers making a profit. That is a big hurdle to overcome and even more congressional support for the industry. So look at history and see the prices going higher for gas and a bail out of the bigger corn ethanol producers. E85 will be a big seller as it is cheaper and more flex fuel cars are sold here. No ethanol is not going away, just cutting the fat. Reply
  • commenter
    Leslie
    Weiman
    Jun 30 04:29 PM
    Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It [view article]
    Ethonal can susceed.

    All these people complaining about people in the poverty countries being starved to death because of the high price of corn.It
    was on TV and in several newspapers,ag magazines, even on the stock report stations that the U.S.A. had shipped 13% more wheat &
    15% more corn this year than last year at this time.Also it was reported that we have 19% more corn and 14% more wheat in storage than the same time a year ago. That was reported 6/24/2008. Today 6/30/2008 the Agriculture report confirmed this to be true. So just how is it that that so many people are being starved because of ethanol. It,s
    been pretty well established that the cost of food has risen about
    $400.00 per person since 6/1/2006. However that includes extra cost of shipping,packaging,eat... out at resturuants,and awhole host of other things. Most reports admit that only around 20% of the
    increase in food cost is because of ethonol or higher grain cost.
    It will take probably a combination of things to bring down the cost of fuel.Such as . People might drive a little slower, cut down on miles they are driving if possible. I know many people who hit
    the C&W clubs and game rooms almost every nite of the week.

    Also;I wonder how many bushels of corn are burned in the corn
    burning stoves each year. Ethonol yields distillers grain which has about 28% protien compared to 7% that the corn yields prior to be-
    -ing used for ethonol. Also cattle fed with distillers grain produces meat that is much lower in colesterol. I wonder how much distillers
    grain or By-Product one gets after the corn goes through the corn
    burning stove. And what about the corn put out for deer so the hunter who really likes to hunt the old way can get a 25 yd shot with his 7mm and the 12 X scope. Of course shooting from the deer
    stand that has it all. No I'm not saying we should starve the deer out.
    When I farmed in the 70's and early 80's I averaged around $2.75 per bushel of corn delivered to Cargill [38 miles one way]
    Today corn should be easily twice what it was 30 years ago;even if
    today it wasn't being used for ethonol. Corn selling between $5.00
    and $6.00 and as high as $8.00 occasionaly would be only twice what it was 30 years ago. What else in this country can one name that isn't at least 5 to 10 times as much as it was in the late 70's.

    The reason the cost of corn is where it is isn't solely because of
    ethanol. Most of the rise in the corn price is because of the increase
    in the number of floods & droughs around the world, not just the USA. Also the increase in demand for red meat[beef] in many countries around the world including the USA.

    What we really need is a good TV special ;announced well
    in advance that will bring out all the pros & cons on this
    Ethanol issue. Especially what the price of fuel will be
    if the ethanol idea is scraped . And also what the
    price of corn is going to be afterward.Other
    things such as how much food prices are
    going to drop.If corn drops to $3.00,
    how much is each tax payer going
    to pay extra each year to keep
    the farmers in bussiness.

    I feel that if everyone would know the full ethanol picture and give it a chance;it could be a good thing for everyone. Don't just listen
    to what the oil companies and their investors have to say about this. Take the time to look at every angle on the ethanol issue. In
    California at least one ethanol producer has been able to reduce
    the amount of corn used in the making of ethanol. Please don't
    write ethanol off without knowing all the pros & cons.

    Leslie W     Reply
  • commenter
    Enes K.
    Jun 30 04:10 PM
    Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It [view article]
    I agree with carbonates. Natural gas should be made into a transportation fuel. It is much easier to handle and most of the country already has the infrastructure setup (for the most part). after all, filling your gas tank at home is better than hunting down the best gasoline deal in town. convenience factor is huge. as an engineer, i think regular gasoline is a pretty crappy motor fuel with many limiting factors and design and regulatory challenges.

    my two cents, swap natural gas and gasoline. use gasoline for heating purposes and electricity and use natural gas as a motor fuel :)
    ...btw i know that idea sounds crazy     Reply
  • commenter
    carbonates
    Jun 30 03:41 PM
    Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It [view article]
    Academic arguments about the benefits of ethanol aside, I'm still making money shorting ethanol. Long term who knows? Natural gas could easily become the next big transportation fuel, that is if the demand from corn farmers for natural-gas-derived nitrogen fertilizer, essential for current corn crops, doesn't drive natural gas too high. The Saudis are selling us fertilizer too! Reply
  • commenter
    bouzerdad
    Jun 30 02:49 PM
    Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It [view article]
    I have bought and sold PEIX 5 times.
    Everyone now hates ethanol for whatever reasons.
    That means TIME TO BUY!     Reply
  • commenter
    Enes K.
    Jun 30 01:55 PM
    Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It [view article]
    oh quick correction

    NOT THAT big of an ethanol lover

    whoops     Reply
  • commenter
    Enes K.
    Jun 30 01:55 PM
    Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It [view article]
    actually, i'm a big ethanol lover. i just prefer honesty in business and government. the manipulation is incredible. ethanol has some nice properties as a fuel, but its transportation limits its use on a national scale (for now). do i like the national mandate on ethanol? no. do i mind and hate ethanol? no. it has a place especially in the midwest. it is a great octane booster. does ethanol make sense at these prices? yes. are the blenders getting some extra cash that they do not need right now? yes.

    its impact on food prices is indirect. and that is the main problem. there is sooo much information that people do not know what to do with or believe. for example, cattle need starch, but the current movement is into lean muscle cattle ("healthy" alternative). dairy operations also care very little about starch and concentrate on getting protein and hormones to their milking cows. so how do you price corn? how do you quantify its impact on the price of rice which is a people only food? does corn impact rice? can the situation in india be explained using the same logic (export of rice is practically eliminated)?

    the ag lobbies represent ag business interest and farmers, especially medium and small, are left out of the loop. most of the corn increase has benefited the suppliers. as proof, we need to look at fertilizer, machinery, and seed companies and the prices they charge. they are all doing GREAT.

    the rest were bought out. the oil companies and their lobbies got a slice of the pie with the blender credit (which at current relative levels does not make sense). farmers are left in the middle and do not like what is going on. will they take higher corn prices? yes, but only to a certain extent. the input prices have gone to such levels that they are starting to switch to soybeans.

    i think the increase in corn prices is more related to the dollar and the world increase in GDP. do we expect people to always eat rice and beans while the developed world eats $0.99 cheeseburgers at McDonald's? i think not. the dollar has lost a large portion of its value while the rest of the world has gotten richer off of commodities, exports, and a horrible budget deficit and management during the bush administration (deficit = imports for the US). now some of these "other" people are able to afford eating more and better food. the highest demand increase for meat products has come from countries that have seen large increases in income, dollar holdings, and rise of a middle class. this would include china, india, brazil, middle east, and russia. we can't use one logic for oil and other commodities and claim that corn prices are strictly affected by ethanol and imply that their increase is controlled by that. all of a sudden the global economy and the dollar have nothing to do with these commodity prices?

    take care of the dollar, and it will take care of you. but that won't happen for now (yay bank lobbies).

    PS
    are the poor going to suffer? they always do during inflationary times. this is no different, but the rich get richer and fatter in those countries. and that is not going to change either (russia to me is still a communist country; as is india; the middle east is truly special; brazil has a boat load of case studies on income inequality).     Reply
  • commenter
    Tom B
    Jun 30 01:31 PM
    Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It [view article]
    "And remember, the government subsidies for ethanol are minor in comparison to those paid to the oil industry. "

    Agreed. And we are still paying those--why?     Reply
  • commenter
    Tom B
    Jun 30 01:31 PM
    Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It [view article]
    "There's always a new crop year"

    Farming 101: Corn is expensive to grow and requires LOTS of chemical fertilization. Arable land is a finite resource. Water is a finite resource. Farming is weather dependent.     Reply
  • commenter
    oldoneputt
    Jun 30 12:37 PM
    Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It [view article]
    High corn prices is a short term issue. There's always a new crop year. In the early 1970's corn went from $0.75/bu. to $1.75/bu. within a few weeks, "A disaster". We've survived that and many other short term commodity issues since. We can't change laws and mandates because of 100 year floods. Ethanol may not be the perfect solution to oil imports, high gasoline prices, and auto air pollution, but at this time is there anything better? The detractors of ethanol point to the negative issues, but we seldom see, without doing our own research, what the benefits of ethanol have been to the economy, reduced air pollution, reduced per gallon cost of gasoline, and the cost of foreign oil not purchased due to the inclusion of ethanol in gasoline. And remember, the government subsidies for ethanol are minor in comparison to those paid to the oil industry.
    Reply
  • commenter
    DutchMan
    Jun 30 12:12 PM
    Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It [view article]
    Ethanol is just starting to become a key-player......
    Cellulose Ethanol on the GO!

    Canada:
    Major Step Forward For Proposed World Leading
    Ethanol Biorefinery In Canada
    Vancouver, BC, March 14, 2008 – Canada’s Environment Minister John Baird is
    pleased to announce that Iogen Corporation’s application for funding for
    Canada’s first commercial scale cellulosic ethanol production facility has progressed to the due diligence phase.
    “This is a good day for Canadians and our environment,” said Minister Baird. “Thanks to our Government’s allocation of $500 million for next generation biofuels, Canada is one step closer to making our country’s first full-scale cellulosic ethanol fuel facility a reality. With technologies such as this, Canada is
    well-positioned to be a world leader in the renewable fuels industry.”

    USA:
    Pacific Ethanol Wins DOE Cellulosic Energy Grant
    Tuesday January 29, 2008, 3:39 pm
    January 28, 2008, -- Sacramento, CA -- Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (NASDAQ:PEIX), the largest West Coast-based marketer and producer of ethanol, today announced the U.S. Department of Energy has included Pacific Ethanol in a matching award totaling $24.32 million to build the first cellulosic ethanol demonstration plant in the Northwest United States.

    Seekingalpha is to much negative about ethanol, I am rather looking at Seekingomega ;-)     Reply
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