Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC)

All Comments on APC

  • commenter
    Brian
    Pursley
    May 31 06:19 PM
    My Website
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    All of this peak oil angst stems from not wanting to face life without a Hummer. Go ride a bike. Reply
  • commenter
    Brian
    Pursley
    May 31 06:15 PM
    My Website
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    Mr. Yetiv: "Question to you: If you add up depletion rates at Ghawar, Cantarell, and all the other fields in the world over the next 7 years (ie, by 2015), what does that total depletion add up to?"

    I figured you were going to tell me since you peak oil cultists know everything even though you don't trust any statistics. How should I know? I thought Saudi statistics can't be trusted. Those are only 2 fields and according to Matt Simmons Ghawar should've run out already. See here: peakoildebunked.blogsp...

    Anyway, who cares about Ghawar besides Matt Simmons and the Saudi Royal Family? I know I don't: peakoildebunked.blogsp...

    There are other oil fields, get over it: peakoildebunked.blogsp...     Reply
  • commenter
    phillips49
    May 31 04:57 PM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    pearl2k,

    I doubt that military consumption of fuel in support of IRAQ will make much of a difference in global supply/demand.

    On a different note. The problems in this region go back 1000's of years. In my opinion, when America leaves, (if we can ever make a gracefull exit) the entire region will once again de-stablize into fighting factions and civil war. History is on the side of my opinion in that regard. Any de-stabilization in this region will push the price of oil out of sight. Dissidents believe in reign or ruin. This is demonstarated on a smaller scale in Nigeria and it's problems with rebels. The US gets about 10% of it's imported oil from Nigeria.     Reply
  • commenter
    pearl2k
    May 31 02:38 PM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    Can anyone comment on the price/demand for oil and US consumption/Military consumption once this war ends? Reply
  • commenter
    freefall51
    May 31 01:50 PM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    mike fitz,

    I am just curious about your picture. What peak are you on?     Reply
  • commenter
    kat (user
    202736 -
    above)
    May 31 01:13 PM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    Ann from KC - I agree that there is a way to invest wisely and at the same time do so in a way that doesn't cause harm. We are avoiding coal (CO2 and mercury) and nuclear (too much potential for harm if there's an accident) for now. There are alot of good green energy options out there, they're clearly part of the long-term solution to the energy problem and they will certainly do increasingly well as oil goes up.
    We are also avoiding putting money into food commodities even if it is a good investment because we are concerned about raising food prices and affecting those that are barely making it. We ARE putting some money into oil companies that are diversifying or are diversified into other technologies (eg - Statoil ASA based in Norway has hydropower and is considering wind). I'm a little ambivalent about it. increased oil prices equals increased food and everything else prices, but increased oil prices will also cause a shift to alternative (hopefully cleaner) energy sources. Solar/geothermal/wind technologies are plenty mature enough to be increasingly used if the proper incentives are in place. If the government won't subsidize these, then the market will eventually force a change as oil becomes too expensive due to decreasing supply/demand. Check out Finavera (on the TSX). They are still small and could get into funding problems but they are a clean tech (wave power) and already have a contract with PG&E.     Reply
  • commenter
    phillips49
    May 31 01:02 PM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    WOW!!! Good article!!! It is almost like talking to myself, (not that I'm that smart) except written much better. To me investing 101 says invest in companies that:
    1. Have product that is demand
    2. Have high long term growth potential
    3. Have high profit potential
    4. Have the ability to pass along cost of business increases
    5. Have great cash flow
    6. Have a moat such as high cost of entry into the business segment

    For the last several years, natural resources and energy have met these criteria because a growing world NEEDS these things.

    Coal needs to be added to the list of investment considerations along with the miners, mining equipment, infrastructure and ag. It's all good!!!

    Some say these companies are high risk because of the link to commodities. Right now though Financials, Consumer and Tech are all looking higher risk to me. I add Tech because it is consumer driven and the consumer is at risk.

    Reply
  • commenter
    richjoy
    May 31 12:48 PM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    oldgoldbug: Given your handle, I suspect you know something about 'can't miss' bubbles touted by those who reinforce each other with a steady stream of blather.

    Agreed, interest rates on long bonds and 10-yr notes are not set by the Fed...and in the face of growing inflation, should be still higher than they are today. Are they telling us there is more economic pain ahead?...perhaps (and if so, oil consumption will decline by still more than we have seen recently).

    Reply
  • commenter
    oldgoldbug
    May 31 11:55 AM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    To richjoy - amen. the consequences of being wrong are so enormous that unless you have a printing press in the basement it will change your life for a long time. Diversification with money you cannot afford to lose is crucial.
    BTW, given $875+ gold and $120+ oil, why aren't interest rates on long UST bonds way, way higher? One would think the bond market is forecasting a recession/depression. If that happens, where do commodity and overall stock prices go?






    4     Reply
  • commenter
    paulk8756
    May 31 11:28 AM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    Terrific and well thought out article! But be careful, guys, the short term oil price bubble may be upon us, regardless of so-called peak oil. I don't think the author meant to say don't diversify, it's HOW you diversify.

    For example, no matter what oil prices do near term, the value of oil service stocks will continue to skyrocket. There is only so much drilling equipment (esp. deepwater), and with oil company revenues at record highs, demand is off the charts.

    The same goes for railroads. Only so many tracks and railcars, and they're getting a boost from the malaise in the trucking industry, as well. Agriculture industry related companies are also extended to capacity, which bodes well for their stocks. And ya gotta love Brazil, it seems they're doing everything right.

    So by all means you MUST diversify, only watch how you do it. Just ask the guys who had all their money in lilies and dot-coms if they think that would have been a good idea.     Reply
  • commenter
    Ann from KC
    May 31 11:21 AM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    I agree with the analysis but beg you -- Evaluate the proposed strategy! If your motto is "All for me and let the rest of them eat cake" then by all means exacerbate the current situation and dump as much money into the commodoties market as fast as you can!

    It is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The oil and commodoties exchanges are reacting to inflow of money, not a shortage of oil or other goods. The self-consumed idealogues that have been running this country have not only failed to develop an energy policy, they have printed enough money to wallpaper the Great Wall of China! And meantime, we lemmings continue to tuck our 10% into our little 401k so that the stock market continues to be pumped up.

    It is Econ 101 - too many dollars chasing too few goods ("investments&quo... = lnflation!

    And you and me making an extra 5% return on our money this year will likely not deliver us from the chaos that will engulf everyone if the trend continues. Broke people do stupid things, but starving people are often violent. Is that really the society you want to live in so you can protect (maybe) your little piece of the rock? Do you really want to explain to St. Peter why you thought it proper to run up the price of food to make a buck?

    Not me. I have taken my 10% penalty and dealt myself out of the game. It is my intent to take most of my little nest egg and buy stocks in companies that (1) are focused on "earnings" versus "revenues" and (2) believe in "greening the future" because once this all ends, that's where the money will be.



    Reply
  • commenter
    Jack Yetiv
    May 31 10:43 AM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    To Mr. Pursley regarding Brazilian finds and how quickly they will come to production:

    According to PBR's rather optimistic scenario (as noted in the link you attached), they expect to be pumping 20,000 bpd out of Tupi in 2009 (as the expert quoted in the article said, I also think that is pretty optimistic), 100K bpd by the end of 2010 (more than 2 years from now), and based on all of these finds (Tupi, Carioca, etc), PBR expects to be pumping 4.2 million bpd in 2015, versus 2.3 million now.

    In other words, under PBR's own very optimistic schedule, they will produce an extra 1.9 mbpd seven years from now.

    Question to you: If you add up depletion rates at Ghawar, Cantarell, and all the other fields in the world over the next 7 years (ie, by 2015), what does that total depletion add up to?

    Many people believe global depletion to be running at 5-7%/year, but let's say 3% per year--and don't even compound it.

    So, in 7 years, depletion is 20% of our current 85 mbpd--ie, 17 mbpd.

    Certainly, PBR will not be the only source of extra oil--maybe the Middle East and Nigeria will settle down and pump fully (although I might note that human history is rather short on, if not entirely bereft of, epochs of global peace and harmony--man is the most contentious animal of all), and maybe the decision not to drill ANWR will be reversed (although I wouldn't hold my breath on that one), but not EVERYTHING will go the way of extra production.

    In adddition, mark my words that by 2015, Tupi/Carioca/etc oil will cost at LEAST $100/barrell to produce, putting a floor of probably $130 (assuming a modest netback of $30/barrell) on the price of oil even without taking supply/demand into account.

    My point: None of us know what real supply and real demand will be in 2015, but we all know that demand from developing countries will increase significantly, that all fields deplete naturally, that cost of production from the new fields will be far higher than the gushers of old, and that OPEC has made it clear that 2-digit oil prices are a thing of the past.

    Thus, I believe that downside risk in the best oil/gas investments is rather limited while upside potential is pretty substantial.

    Although I think the author has overstated the case that diversification is unnecessary, I will also say that my rather sizable stock account is 100% invested in a Canroy (PWE) and a solar company (TSL). Of course, my stock account only constitutes a small percentage of my net worth, so I can take the chance to put all of my eggs in the "energy" basket, but that is NOT the approach I would suggest to others less risk-tolerant than I.

    I would, however, recommend that people overweight good energy and alternative energy investments in their account.

    Jack     Reply
  • commenter
    jjason
    May 31 10:40 AM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    This author spouts off with a lot of bad investment advice. There are a lot of people who are not going to let the OPEC cartel rig oil prices along with the commodity futures exchanges.

    The German government is in the news today regarding price fixing by commodity futures traders. The German Minister is going to bring up this topic at a G8 meeting.

    I have started collecting articles from various sources ( including the 294 page report from the US Congress ) to give to my Congressman.

    If you want price fixing to continue along with higher food, heating oil and gasoline prices then listen to these guys who are misleading you into thinking you are going to make big bucks in commodities trading.

    It is a game for suckers. The prices will come down.     Reply
  • commenter
    richjoy
    May 31 10:31 AM
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    Don't know why I bother, as you kids are so sure in your positions that you only half-listen to those with far more experience:

    I've been investing for almost 40 yrs. I've seen a number of bubbles, including sure-thing 'nifty-fifty', technology, and now peak oil. They come along and folks can't see beyond the hype, they think they will be money machines forever. They were not...and 'peak oil' won't be either.

    I've learned many lessons from my mistakes.

    I'll pass along just this one...over the course of the economic cycle, it isn't your big winners that are most important to your wealth; it's your big losers! If you allocate too much in one place, you are setting yourself up for huge losses.

    Therefore, anyone who tells you not to diversify should be shunned.

    That doesn't mean you should never overweigh 5 or 10% pts. in mega-trends -- like energy, alternative. energy, health care, or materials, for example...but anyone who leaves bonds and broad S&P 500 stocks out of his portfolio is going to pay dearly before this economic cycle ends.     Reply
  • commenter
    Phil Obal
    May 31 09:56 AM
    My Website
    In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea [view article]
    You might be LUCKY to be in the OIL, Precious Metals.... but if the "demand" for these goes down... your portfolio will go down. I say you are LUCKY, since CHINDIA & emerging markets are keeping the demand up. So, you can keep your course for a year or two, but what are you going to do then?????

    One area, I like RIGHT NOW is technology stocks (especially software). We should see CVLT, ORCL, SAP, GSB, AMSWA/LGTY, and numerous others... accelerate in their stock price. MSFT is too large (like XOM) to make major moves. Let's see what happens in TECH STOCKS during the next 6 months (in comparison to your portfolio).     Reply
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