Oct. 9, 2014, 3:25 PM
- Crushed by relentless anxiety about oversupply and weakening global demand, Nymex crude oil futures closed down $1.54 at $85.76/bbl, their lowest close since Dec. 2012, while Brent crude fell below $90/bbl for the first time in more than two years.
- Including today's losses, WTI crude is down 6.2% since the start of the month and Brent has surrendered ~5%.
- In the face of surging output, a move in WTI below its 10-year average at $82 is not out of the realm of possibility, Brown Brothers Harriman says, adding that "a break of $73/barrel could send WTI toward $64, which corresponds with the 2010 low."
- Among big oil names so far today: APC -6.3%, LINE -4.6%, EPD -3.8%, DVN -3.8%, MRO -3.6%, HES -3.8%, KMI -3.7%, TOT -3.5%, STO -3.3%, RDS.A -3.1%, OXY -3%, KMP -3%, XOM -2.6%, COP -2.6%, MUR -2.6%, CVX -2.5%, BP -2.4%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, XOP, DIG, BNO, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, CRUD, IEZ, PXE, USL, UWTI, PXJ, FENY, DNO, DWTI, RYE, FXN, SZO, OLO, DDG, OLEM, TWTI
Oct. 9, 2014, 9:56 AM
- Global oil producers open broadly lower as oil prices continue to slide on concerns about high supplies and weak global economic growth (also): RDS.A -2.7%, STO -2.7%, TOT -2.5%, HES -2%, APC -1.7%, BP -1.6%, CVX -1.5%, COP -1%, XOM -0.8%.
- Brent prices slump to $91/bbl, approaching two-year intraday lows, and Nymex crude tumbles to $86.67/bbl to an 18-month intraday low.
- The EIA said yesterday that U.S. crude supplies rose by a more than expected 5% last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories unexpectedly grew as well.
- Barclays is cutting its oil price forecasts: It now sees U.S. crude averaging $85/bbl in Q4 and $89 in 2015, down from previous estimates of $98 in Q4 and $100 next year, and Brent crude averaging $93/bbl in Q4 and $96 in 2015, down from a respective $106 and $107 previously.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, XOP, DIG, BNO, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, IEO, CRUD, PXE, USL, UWTI, PXJ, FENY, DNO, DWTI, RYE, FXN, SZO, OLO, DDG, OLEM, TWTI
Sep. 30, 2014, 10:58 AM
- Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) had secured the best strategic position of any western oil company in Russia, but instead its Russian ambitions are on ice because of western sanctions, and questions about its sluggish growth and weak share price performance vs. some leading rivals are returning to the fore.
- "Russia was going to be Exxon’s next mega-area, and the list of mega-areas in the world is very short," says Wolfe Research's Paul Sankey.
- FT reports many Russian oil executives believe western sanctions will prove relatively short-lived, but some analysts think the Russians may overestimate U.S. willingness to sacrifice foreign policy goals to help American businesses.
- If the road in Russia remains blocked, analysts say XOM could use its financial strength to invest more in the U.S. oil and gas boom; rumors have swirled about an XOM bid for Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC), BG Group (OTCPK:BRGXF, OTCQX:BRGYY) or even BP, an option that could be particularly attractive if weak oil prices put pressure on company valuations.
Sep. 12, 2014, 8:19 AM
- Mitsubishi agrees to buy a 20% stake in an oil exploration project led by Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) offshore of Ivory Coast, pending approval by the African country's government.
- If enough oil is found and the project moves to the development phase, the total investment would be ~Y800B ($7.5B), of which Mitsubishi would pay 20%.
- APC, the operator and owner of 55% of the block, aims to start production in 2019, and output is expected to reach ~60K bbl/day at its peak.
Sep. 8, 2014, 6:43 PM
- The energy sector has seen little M&A activity despite a growth shortfall and cheap borrowing rates, but UBS analysts think a focus on incremental returns may lead to less exploration and more deals as resource prices on the market have fallen.
- The firm figures four large-cap E&P companies - Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) and Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) - could prove tantalizing acquisition targets, but the buyer likely would need very deep pockets.
- In the case of EOG, UBS says the company's strong position in the three biggest tight oil plays - the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Permian - make it a perfect fit for an integrated major looking to expand in those areas.
Sep. 8, 2014, 12:32 PM
- The day's five biggest decliners in the S&P 500 are all energy companies - Newfield Exploration (NFX -5.6%), EOG Resources (EOG -3.6%), Anadarko Petroleum (APC -2.9%), Cimarex Energy (XEC -3.3%) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD -3.4%) - as crude oil prices slide to new lows, including Brent crude's first move below $100/bbl in more than a year.
- Brent crude dropped $1.12, or 1.1%, to $99.70/bbl after falling to as low as $99.36, a 16-month low, while U.S. crude slipped more than a percent to below $92 after settling at $93.29 on Friday for its sixth weekly drop in seven.
- Traders are concerned crude demand won't keep up, with data from the U.S. and China, the world's top oil consumers, suggesting their economies aren't growing as quickly as had been hoped.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, XOP, BNO, DTO, DBO, IEO, CRUD, PXE, USL, DBE, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, RJN, SZO, OLO, JJE, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, UBN
Sep. 2, 2014, 2:15 PM
- Russia's Lukoil (OTCPK:LUKOY, OTC:LUKOF) has made a discovery at Ghana’s offshore Cape Three Points project, Bloomberg reports.
- Ghana and its partners, including Tullow Oil (OTCPK:TUWLF, OTCPK:TUWOY) and Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC), plan to spend $20B in the next decade to boost oil production to 500K bbl/day from current output of ~100K bbl/day.
- If commercially viable, the Lukoil find would be Ghana’s fifth planned offshore field.
Aug. 28, 2014, 10:58 AM
- The Marcellus region is now the world's biggest natural gas shale play, and there’s still $90B to be made by tapping the area’s reserves, according to a study by Wood Mackenzie.
- The energy consultant predicts that the top 20 operators in the Marcellus will earn nearly $86B over the life of the play after the costs of reaching the reserves; for comparison, it estimates ~$118B to be made by extracting the resources in North Dakota’s Bakken region, but most production there is higher-priced oil.
- Major Marcellus shale producers include CHK, RRC, RDS.A, RDS.B, TLM, APC, ATLS, COG, CVX, CNX, EQT, EOG, XOM, WPX, XCO, CRZO, SWN, AR.
Aug. 21, 2014, 3:29 PM
- Mozambique will invest more than $30B to begin building capacity in its natural gas sector to produce 20M metric tons/year of liquefied natural gas, with the first exports due to start in 2018, according to the head of the national oil company.
- The investments will be made to develop the northern ports of Pemba and Palma, where a giant logistics base and LNG production plants are planned that will use gas produced from offshore fields in the Rovuma Basin being developed by Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) and Eni (NYSE:E).
- Commitments from APC and Eni already run into several billions of dollars, but the national oil company estimate is the first to put an overall price tag on the first phase of Mozambique's LNG ambitions.
Aug. 21, 2014, 11:43 AM
- Hedge funds are having a difficult time of it again this year, up 1% vs. a 7.5% gain for the S&P 500, according to Goldman Sachs, which crunched the numbers on 775 funds with $1.9T in AUM.
- Nevertheless, Goldman's list of 50 stocks which "matter most" to hedge funds has outperformed the S&P 500 on a quarterly basis 66% of the time since 2001. The stocks this quarter (posted in order of the number of funds in which a name is a top-10 holding):
- ACT, AAPL, FB, AGN, AAL, GM, TWC, AIG, MSFT, HTZ, CHTR, MU, WMB, LNG, C, DAL, HCA, APC, CBS, ALLY, GOOGL, APD, NRF, BAC, EBAY, LBTYK, PCLN, VRX, BIDU, DTV, DISH, DG, EQIX, MA, WAG, ARCP, GILD, LINTA, MON, FOXA, VC, AMZN, BRK.A, BRK.B, SUNE, CMCSA, JPM, MIC, CCI, HES, LAMR.
- A special call-out to Northstar Realty (NYSE:NRF), Visteon (NYSE:VC), SunEdison (NYSE:SUNE), Macquarie Infrastructure (NYSE:MIC), and Lamar Advertising (NASDAQ:LAMR) for making the list of hedge fund hotels despite their relatively tiny market caps.
Aug. 15, 2014, 8:42 AM
- Mozambique’s lawmakers approve petroleum laws that open the way for new oil and gas bids as well as a special tax break for offshore fields operated by Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) and Eni (NYSE:E) to aid their development.
- The government is finalizing the process for new oil and gas bids and will conclude this by the end of the year, the mineral resources minister says; while the new bill enables the two companies to pay less tax, the final percentages have yet to be released.
- Mozambique’s offshore fields may hold enough gas to meet global demand for more than two years, according to the state-owned oil company that holds stakes in the Rovuma-1 deposit operated by APC.
Aug. 12, 2014, 10:45 AM
- Anadarko Petroleum's (APC -1.7%) plan to develop a massive gas resource offshore Mozambique is the subject of a page one story in today's WSJ; it is a highly promising new resource but there are plenty of challenges.
- The nearest viable customers are thousands of miles away, so for APC to make the most of its investment - which has cost it $1B already and could cost tens of billions more - it will need to build plants to liquefy the gas to make it easier to export.
- Mozambique's large gas reserves should provide an opportunity for the country to earn much needed revenue, but APC’s plans already require the resettlement of ~3K villagers; the company is working on a plan to compensate them, but local groups so far have refused to cooperate.
Aug. 5, 2014, 7:17 PM
- Natural gas production in the Marcellus region exceeded 15B cf/day in July, the most productive period ever recorded there, according to a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
- Marcellus, located mostly in West Virginia and Pennsylvania, now accounts for nearly 40% of total U.S. shale gas production, and its rapid growth isn’t expected to ebb soon, the report says.
- New wells in the region are expected to deliver another 600M cf/day, more than offsetting decline rates, for a net production increase of 247M cf/day.
- Major Marcellus shale producers include CHK, RRC, RDS.A, RDS.B, TLM, APC, ATLS, COG, CVX, CNX, EQT, EOG, XOM, WPX, XCO, CRZO, SWN.
Aug. 5, 2014, 7:53 AM
Aug. 4, 2014, 2:31 PM
- Noble Energy (NBL +5.8%) and Anadarko Petroleum (APC +5.3%) spike higher on news of an agreement to remove anti-fracking initiates from the ballot in Colorado.
- Gov. Hickenlooper and U.S. Rep. Polis are forming a task force to craft regulations to minimize conflicts over the siting of oil and gas facilities in Colorado; under the proposal, two initiatives aimed at tightening controls would be withdrawn and two initiatives considered pro-industry also would be pulled.
- Wells Fargo views the deal as a positive for companies with exposure to the Denver-Julesburg Basin, including NBL, APC, Bill Barrett (BBG +4.8%), PDC Energy (PDCE +10.1%), Whiting Petroleum (WLL +4.5%) and Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO +4.3%).
Jul. 29, 2014, 4:47 PM
- Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) posts a 76% drop in Q2 earnings due in part to the $5.15B Tronox payout to settle environmental pollution charges, but says sales volumes were above the high end of quarterly guidance at ~77M boe, or 845K boe/day, and raises its FY 2014 sales volume outlook.
- APC says record U.S. onshore sales volumes averaged 667K boe/day, up 21% Y/Y, driven primarily by strong results from APC's Wattenberg field, Eagleford shale and Delaware Basin assets.
- Algerian sales volumes totaled ~73K bbl/day, up 70% Y/Y, driven mostly by El Merk, which recently achieved record daily gross volumes of 150K-plus bbl/day.
- Raises its FY 2014 sales volume guidance to 299M-302M boe from earlier guidance of 293M-298M boe.
- APC +0.4% AH.
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