Wed, Mar. 18, 3:43 PM
- Stifel analysts say oil prices could be headed even lower, but that investors should buy high quality E&P companies with strong assets and/or balance sheets before prices bottom.
- Stifel says the current cycle resembles previous patterns where large-cap E&P stocks lead the oil price, which in turn leads the rig count, thus the firm does not expect shares of the strong companies to track an oil price bottom; small-cap energy stocks, however, followed oil prices closely through the last cycle and even lagged the commodity’s recovery.
- The firm is favorably disposed to Anadarko Petroleum (APC +2.4%), Cabot Oil & Gas (COG +1%), EOG Resources (EOG +4.2%), Noble Energy (NBL +5.3%), Rosetta Resources (ROSE +5.3%) and Whiting Petroleum (WLL +8.6%).
Thu, Feb. 12, 2:14 PM
- If Exxon Mobil (XOM +1.6%) decides to go hunting for struggling energy peers with shrinking cash flow - as it did five years ago when it acquired XTO Resources for $25B, during an energy rout worse than today's - it would need to go big or not go at all in order to meaningfully boost its oil and gas reserves, WSJ writes as it discusses BP (BP +2.1%) as a potential takeover target.
- BP “is the obvious fit says Wolfe Research's Paul Sankey; buying BP, which is still dealing with the fallout of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill, “would close out a damaged brand at a terrific price” and bolster XOM’s capacity to find new sources of oil and gas, he says.
- Other potentially attractive targets singled out by analysts include a smaller tier of companies such as Anadarko (APC +1.9%) and BG Group (OTCPK:BRGXF, OTCQX:BRGYY), which have discovered huge deposits of oil and gas but may lack the cash flow to develop them quickly.
Tue, Feb. 3, 11:49 AM
- Anadarko Petroleum (APC +2.5%) will significantly cut its 2015 capital spending from last year because of the collapse in crude oil prices, but isn't offering specifics until it presents its budget for the year in early March.
- Cuts would come mostly from shorter-term investments in shale drilling where service costs have driven prices too high relative to drilling returns, CEO Al Walker says in today's earnings conference call.
- "We see ourselves in a period here of trying to build value, maintain flexibility and not grow in a low commodity price environment that we see as less than attractive," Walker says.
- Stifel upgrades shares to Buy from Neutral as it projects 2015 capex of $5.5B, down 37% from 2014, and 2015 production growth of 2% following last year's 8% increase.
- Earlier: Anadarko misses Q4 numbers, shares fall after-hours
Wed, Jan. 28, 3:59 PM
- Energy stocks are broadly lower as Nymex crude oil futures fell another $1.68/bbl (-3.6%) to $44.53 after today's inventory report showed the largest weekly supply buildup since 1982, but drilling contractor are whacked with especially large losses.
- Examples: NBR -11.7%, PTEN -8.6%, PES -10.9%, PDS -12.3%, KEG -6.5%; Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP), which reportedly has launched a round of steep layoffs, -6.3%.
- Among independent producers: DNR -9.7%, NFX -4.6%, SM -8.6%, SGY -10%, SD -9.7%, EOG -5.3%, PXD -6.8%, QEP -6%, APC -4.2%, XEC -3%.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, PXI, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Mon, Jan. 5, 12:18 PM
- Energy stocks severely underperform the broader market, with the sector -4.2% vs. the S&P 500's -1.4%, as U.S. oil prices briefly slip below $50/bbl for the first time since April 2009; Nymex crude recently was -4.4% at $50.37, while Brent crude -5.9% at $53.08.
- Among the day's biggest losers: DNR -9%, RIG -7.6%, NBR -4.8%, CHK -5.9%, SDRL -9.1%, SD -12.3%, NOV -5.9%, PSX -6.2%, APA -5.9%, DVN -4.4%, EOG -6%, SU -5.2%, OXY -4.2%, APC -8.7%, PWE -9%, ECA -5.5%, MRO -5.3%.
- Global oil majors, which have been seen as less vulnerable to falling oil prices, are posting big losses: XOM -2.7%, COP -4.5%, CVX -3.8%, BP -5.8%, RDS.A -4.6%, TOT -6.5%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, PBW, BNO, GASL, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, QCLN, IEZ, UWTI, PXE, USL, PXI, FENY, DWTI, PXJ, DNO, PSCE, RYE, SZO, PUW, FXN, OLO, DDG, HECO, TWTI, OLEM
Dec. 22, 2014, 10:45 AM
- Natural gas prices fall 9.5% to near two-year lows at $3.133/mmBtu, in the biggest one-day percentage loss since February and the lowest intraday price since January 2013, on mild weather forecasts and inventory that is above year-ago levels.
- Prices are now down more than 15% in three straight losing sessions and are 30% lower than the six-month high closing price of $4.489/mmBtu it hit just a month ago.
- Weather has been unseasonably warm for December, limiting demand for home heating and allowing relatively low stockpiles to catch up to where they were a year ago and encouraging traders to sell based on the belief that supply is relatively healthy.
- Gas producers are among the biggest early decliners: XOM -1.1%, CHK -7.3%, APC -2.6%, SWN -6%, DVN -2.2%, COP -2.3%, BP -1.5%, COG -4%, BHP -1.9%, CVX -1.3%, ECA -5.1%, EQT -4.3%, RDS.A -1.7%, UPL -12%, WPX -6.9%, EOG -1%, OXY -1.1%, RRC -6.1%, APA -2.3%, AR -3.2%, CNX -3%, QEP -4.8%, LINE -4.9%, NBL -1.6%, SM -2.6%, XEC -4.2%, PXD -2.9%, NFX -5.1%.
- ETFs: UNG, DGAZ, UGAZ, BOIL, GAZ, FCG, GASL, KOLD, UNL, NAGS, DCNG
Dec. 2, 2014, 3:13 PM
- Apache (APA -1%), Bill Barrett (BBG -5.6%) and Laredo Petroleum (LPI -4.9%) are downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho, as the firm lowers its crude oil price deck and views OPEC's decision not to cut production as a structural shift in crude oil markets.
- Although the current excess supply/weak demand situation will be resolved gradually, market fundamentals will increasingly drive crude prices in a ~$70/bbl world, the firm says; in the E&P space, it prefers APC, MRO, FANG, RSPP and RICE.
Dec. 2, 2014, 2:48 PM
- Energy stocks (XLE +1.4%) are posting the day's largest gains among S&P sectors, rebounding from recent losses even as Nymex crude oil fell another $2.05 to $66.97/bbl.
- Refiners Marathon Petroleum (MPC +4%) and Valero (VLO +4.1%) and pipeline operator Williams Cos. (WMB +1.5%) are among the top gainers, while losers include most oil services companies such as Halliburton (HAL -2.2%) and rig operator Transocean (RIG -3.7%).
- Anadarko Petroleum (APC +1.6%), Cimarex Energy (XEC +1%), Devon Energy (DVN +0.7%), EOG Resources (EOG +3.8%) and Marathon Oil (MRO +3.5%) were selected top “safe haven” picks for analysts at Tudor Pickering Holt, which said they are “liquid names with high-quality assets and healthy balance sheets."
Nov. 28, 2014, 7:25 AM
- OPEC yesterday decided to hold production numbers despite the bear market in oil. WTI crude is down about $5 per barrel to $69.
- A premarket look at the top 10 holdings of the XLE: Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) -4.1%, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) -4.1%, Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) -4.6%, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) -4.4%, EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) -4.3%, Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) -4.8%, Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) -4.3%, Haliburton (NYSE:HAL) -4.7%, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) -5%, Williams Companies (NYSE:WMB) -1.6%.
- ETFs: ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, PBW, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, QCLN, IEZ, PXE, PXI, FENY, PXJ, PSCE, RYE, PUW, FXN, DDG, HECO
Oct. 9, 2014, 3:25 PM
- Crushed by relentless anxiety about oversupply and weakening global demand, Nymex crude oil futures closed down $1.54 at $85.76/bbl, their lowest close since Dec. 2012, while Brent crude fell below $90/bbl for the first time in more than two years.
- Including today's losses, WTI crude is down 6.2% since the start of the month and Brent has surrendered ~5%.
- In the face of surging output, a move in WTI below its 10-year average at $82 is not out of the realm of possibility, Brown Brothers Harriman says, adding that "a break of $73/barrel could send WTI toward $64, which corresponds with the 2010 low."
- Among big oil names so far today: APC -6.3%, LINE -4.6%, EPD -3.8%, DVN -3.8%, MRO -3.6%, HES -3.8%, KMI -3.7%, TOT -3.5%, STO -3.3%, RDS.A -3.1%, OXY -3%, KMP -3%, XOM -2.6%, COP -2.6%, MUR -2.6%, CVX -2.5%, BP -2.4%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, XOP, DIG, BNO, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, CRUD, IEZ, PXE, USL, UWTI, PXJ, FENY, DNO, DWTI, RYE, FXN, SZO, OLO, DDG, OLEM, TWTI
Oct. 9, 2014, 9:56 AM
- Global oil producers open broadly lower as oil prices continue to slide on concerns about high supplies and weak global economic growth (also): RDS.A -2.7%, STO -2.7%, TOT -2.5%, HES -2%, APC -1.7%, BP -1.6%, CVX -1.5%, COP -1%, XOM -0.8%.
- Brent prices slump to $91/bbl, approaching two-year intraday lows, and Nymex crude tumbles to $86.67/bbl to an 18-month intraday low.
- The EIA said yesterday that U.S. crude supplies rose by a more than expected 5% last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories unexpectedly grew as well.
- Barclays is cutting its oil price forecasts: It now sees U.S. crude averaging $85/bbl in Q4 and $89 in 2015, down from previous estimates of $98 in Q4 and $100 next year, and Brent crude averaging $93/bbl in Q4 and $96 in 2015, down from a respective $106 and $107 previously.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, XOP, DIG, BNO, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, IEO, CRUD, PXE, USL, UWTI, PXJ, FENY, DNO, DWTI, RYE, FXN, SZO, OLO, DDG, OLEM, TWTI
Sep. 8, 2014, 12:32 PM
- The day's five biggest decliners in the S&P 500 are all energy companies - Newfield Exploration (NFX -5.6%), EOG Resources (EOG -3.6%), Anadarko Petroleum (APC -2.9%), Cimarex Energy (XEC -3.3%) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD -3.4%) - as crude oil prices slide to new lows, including Brent crude's first move below $100/bbl in more than a year.
- Brent crude dropped $1.12, or 1.1%, to $99.70/bbl after falling to as low as $99.36, a 16-month low, while U.S. crude slipped more than a percent to below $92 after settling at $93.29 on Friday for its sixth weekly drop in seven.
- Traders are concerned crude demand won't keep up, with data from the U.S. and China, the world's top oil consumers, suggesting their economies aren't growing as quickly as had been hoped.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, XOP, BNO, DTO, DBO, IEO, CRUD, PXE, USL, DBE, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, RJN, SZO, OLO, JJE, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, UBN
Aug. 12, 2014, 10:45 AM
- Anadarko Petroleum's (APC -1.7%) plan to develop a massive gas resource offshore Mozambique is the subject of a page one story in today's WSJ; it is a highly promising new resource but there are plenty of challenges.
- The nearest viable customers are thousands of miles away, so for APC to make the most of its investment - which has cost it $1B already and could cost tens of billions more - it will need to build plants to liquefy the gas to make it easier to export.
- Mozambique's large gas reserves should provide an opportunity for the country to earn much needed revenue, but APC’s plans already require the resettlement of ~3K villagers; the company is working on a plan to compensate them, but local groups so far have refused to cooperate.
Aug. 4, 2014, 2:31 PM
- Noble Energy (NBL +5.8%) and Anadarko Petroleum (APC +5.3%) spike higher on news of an agreement to remove anti-fracking initiates from the ballot in Colorado.
- Gov. Hickenlooper and U.S. Rep. Polis are forming a task force to craft regulations to minimize conflicts over the siting of oil and gas facilities in Colorado; under the proposal, two initiatives aimed at tightening controls would be withdrawn and two initiatives considered pro-industry also would be pulled.
- Wells Fargo views the deal as a positive for companies with exposure to the Denver-Julesburg Basin, including NBL, APC, Bill Barrett (BBG +4.8%), PDC Energy (PDCE +10.1%), Whiting Petroleum (WLL +4.5%) and Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO +4.3%).
Jul. 15, 2014, 11:46 AM
- Anadarko Petroleum (APC +2.6%) shares are strong after its financial update says its 8M acres of mineral rights in the Rocky Mountains are accelerating beyond last year’s $675M revenue boost.
- The disclosure has encouraged investors who want APC to sell some interest in the land or find a way to more fully recognize its value, Oppenheimer's Fadel Gheit says; the rights, which date back to land grants given 150 years ago, are in one of the fastest-growing areas for oil drilling in the U.S.
- APC is weighing a deal that would amount to “renting” some of the acreage and the revenue it generates to investors, Citi analyst Robert Morris says, adding that a similar deal within the next year could be worth as much as $750M.
Jul. 15, 2014, 8:42 AM
- Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) +1.5% premarket after providing a financial update, including the establishment of a new unsecured five-year credit facility, the issuance of senior notes, and the sale of Western Gas Equity Partners (NYSE:WGP) common units.
- Oil and natural gas revenues from both operated and non-operated production totaled ~$675M in 2013, and is trending higher in 2014 based on Q1 results, CFO Bob Gwin says.
- APC says it pared its stake in WGP and made $335M in cash on the offering.
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