Yesterday, 1:57 PM
- Oppenheimer energy analysts expect just one of the 15 pure-play E&P companies it covers to report positive EPS in Q3, just two to post positive EPS in Q4, and only two to finish in the green for 2016.
- Devon Energy (DVN +1.5%) is the only large E&P Oppenheimer expects to post a profit in Q3 and one of only two, along with Range Resources (RRC +1.5%), seen recording a profit in Q4.
- The firm sees Anadarko Petroleum (APC +2.4%), Hess (HES +4.1%) and Murphy Oil (MUR +3.5%) as the hardest hit stocks in Q3, forecasting respective EPS losses of $0.76, $0.91 and $1.13.
- Oppenheimer projects only ConocoPhillips (COP +1.2%) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY +1.9%) coming through with a profit for full-year 2016.
Mon, Aug. 24, 5:36 PM
Fri, Aug. 21, 12:34 PM
- "It's worse than you think," says longtime China bear Jim Chanos, having a day on CNBC. "Whatever you might think, it's worse."
- "People are beginning to realize the Chinese government is not omnipotent and omniscient ... like many of us, sometimes they don't have a clue."
- Chanos is short Solar City (SCTY -8.9%), saying it's really a subprime finance company, burning a lot of cash, and with negative EBITDA ... "this environment ... scary."
- He remains short some of the bigger names in the energy exploration and production space - DVN, MRO, OXY, APC.
- I don't like Shell (RDS.A -1.8%) or Chevron (CVX -1.5%), he says, and believes neither Chevron's dividend nor its buyback are safe.
- ETFs: FXI, ASHR, CAF, YINN, PGJ, GXC, FXP, YANG, CHN, PEK, MCHI, TDF, XPP, YAO, GCH, ASHS, YXI, CN, CHXF, FCA, CNXT, CHNA, KBA, JFC, AFTY, CHAU, XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, IYE, IEO, FENY, PXE, FIF, PXJ, NDP, RYE, FXN, DDG, DRIP, GUSH
Wed, Aug. 19, 11:18 AM
- It's a broad decline for stocks this morning, with the S&P 500, DJIA, and Nasdaq all lower by 1% or more. Leading the way down are the energy names (XLE -2.5%) after an unexpected jump in oil inventories has sent the price of black gold down to new bear market lows at $41.30 per barrel.
- Chevron (CVX -2.9%), ConocoPhillips (COP -3.8%), EOG Resources (EOG -4.3%), Apache (APA -4.1%), Hess (HES -3.6%), Marathon Oil (MRO -5.5%), Noble Energy (NBL -3.1%), Anadarko (APC -3.6%).
- ETFs: XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, IYE, IEO, FENY, PXE, FIF, PXJ, NDP, RYE, FXN, DDG, DRIP, GUSH
Wed, Jul. 29, 2:49 PM
- Anadarko Petroleum (APC +4.8%) pushes to strong gains a day after reporting an unexpected Q2 profit by boosting oil production but keeping operating costs low.
- All of APC’s large projects are advancing, and "new discoveries, which will likely be unappreciated in this market, should add long-term value, all else being equal,” says Stifel analyst Michael Scialla.
- CEO Al Walker noted in today's earnings conference call that oil prices have fallen faster than service costs in places such as the Wattenberg field in Colorado, one of APC's major regions, but even an increase in crude prices might not bring the company back to into expansion mode because margins - not top-line revenue growth - are most important.
- Case in point: The cost to bring a well into production has fallen by ~45% this year in the Wattenberg, as drilling costs in the area have fallen below $1M per well, meaning APC will be able to drill 70 wells in the area this year vs. 35 last year.
- APC says the Delaware Basin in west Texas has offered up similar efficiencies, and the company plans to bring an eighth drilling rig into the region and is considering a ninth, as costs have come down by ~$1M per well.
Wed, Jul. 8, 3:49 PM
- The U.S. E&P industry is "between a rock and a hard place" entering earnings season, Deutsche Bank says, expecting continued headwinds for the group; while momentum has been building for moderate acceleration in activity levels in H2, macro concerns from China to Greece have weighed on crude prices and introduced an “additional layer of uncertainty.”
- Among the major integrated oils, the firm prefers EOG Resources (EOG -2.5%) and Anadarko Petroleum (APC -2.8%) into Q2 results but cuts its stock price target for Marathon Petroleum (MPC -2.6%) in half to $62.
- U.S. refiners, on the other hand, continue to defy fears of a collapse in margins, with demand strength and robust gasoline cracks again driving upside to earnings estimates; the firm sees 7% upside on average to current Q2 estimates for the group, with particular strength from Tesoro (TSO -1.2%), Valero (VLO -0.9%) and HollyFrontier (HFC -1.4%).
Thu, Jun. 4, 3:58 PM
- Western Gas Equity Partners (WGP -8.2%) tumbles following Anadarko Petroleum's (APC -0.5%) plans, announced late yesterday, for a secondary offering of 2M WGP common equity units.
- APC also said it will concurrently sell 6.5M of its tangible equity units at $50 a piece, with each consisting of a prepaid equity purchase contract and a senior amortizing note.
- WGP is an APC subsidiary that was formed to hold partnership interests in Western Gas Partners (WES -2.8%), another APC subsidiary that owns and operates pipeline and other midstream energy assets; APC owns 193.4M WGP units, or 88.3% of its outstanding stock, which would fall to ~87.4% after the upcoming offering is completed.
Fri, May 15, 11:57 AM
- CB&I (CBI +9.3%) soars following a Bloomberg report that Anadarko Petroleum (APC -0.1%) is poised to select it as the main contractor for construction of a potential $15B liquefied natural gas export project in Mozambique.
- The decision is a milestone for one of the few energy mega-projects around the world to move forward after crude prices collapsed last year; APC believes as much as 75T cf of natural gas may lie in the Area 1 prospect off Mozambique’s shores.
- Shares of Fluor (FLR -1.4%), which had been considered a contender for the project, are lower.
Wed, Apr. 15, 12:32 PM
- Anadarko Petroleum (APC +2.1%) says it may close sales accords in the coming months that would enable it to authorize a Mozambican project that has the potential to make the country one of the top three liquefied natural gas exporters.
- A final investment decision depends on converting a non-binding heads of agreement that the APC-led project has in place for 8M metric tons/year of gas with customers in Japan, China, Thailand and Singapore into a sales contract.
- APC’s Area 1 and Eni’s (NYSE:E) Area 4 in the Rovuma Basin off Mozambique’s north coast together hold technically recoverable reserves of 120T cf, according to industry consultant Wood Mackenzie.
Wed, Mar. 18, 3:43 PM
- Stifel analysts say oil prices could be headed even lower, but that investors should buy high quality E&P companies with strong assets and/or balance sheets before prices bottom.
- Stifel says the current cycle resembles previous patterns where large-cap E&P stocks lead the oil price, which in turn leads the rig count, thus the firm does not expect shares of the strong companies to track an oil price bottom; small-cap energy stocks, however, followed oil prices closely through the last cycle and even lagged the commodity’s recovery.
- The firm is favorably disposed to Anadarko Petroleum (APC +2.4%), Cabot Oil & Gas (COG +1%), EOG Resources (EOG +4.2%), Noble Energy (NBL +5.3%), Rosetta Resources (ROSE +5.3%) and Whiting Petroleum (WLL +8.6%).
Thu, Feb. 12, 2:14 PM
- If Exxon Mobil (XOM +1.6%) decides to go hunting for struggling energy peers with shrinking cash flow - as it did five years ago when it acquired XTO Resources for $25B, during an energy rout worse than today's - it would need to go big or not go at all in order to meaningfully boost its oil and gas reserves, WSJ writes as it discusses BP (BP +2.1%) as a potential takeover target.
- BP “is the obvious fit says Wolfe Research's Paul Sankey; buying BP, which is still dealing with the fallout of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill, “would close out a damaged brand at a terrific price” and bolster XOM’s capacity to find new sources of oil and gas, he says.
- Other potentially attractive targets singled out by analysts include a smaller tier of companies such as Anadarko (APC +1.9%) and BG Group (OTCPK:BRGXF, OTCQX:BRGYY), which have discovered huge deposits of oil and gas but may lack the cash flow to develop them quickly.
Tue, Feb. 3, 11:49 AM
- Anadarko Petroleum (APC +2.5%) will significantly cut its 2015 capital spending from last year because of the collapse in crude oil prices, but isn't offering specifics until it presents its budget for the year in early March.
- Cuts would come mostly from shorter-term investments in shale drilling where service costs have driven prices too high relative to drilling returns, CEO Al Walker says in today's earnings conference call.
- "We see ourselves in a period here of trying to build value, maintain flexibility and not grow in a low commodity price environment that we see as less than attractive," Walker says.
- Stifel upgrades shares to Buy from Neutral as it projects 2015 capex of $5.5B, down 37% from 2014, and 2015 production growth of 2% following last year's 8% increase.
- Earlier: Anadarko misses Q4 numbers, shares fall after-hours
Wed, Jan. 28, 3:59 PM
- Energy stocks are broadly lower as Nymex crude oil futures fell another $1.68/bbl (-3.6%) to $44.53 after today's inventory report showed the largest weekly supply buildup since 1982, but drilling contractor are whacked with especially large losses.
- Examples: NBR -11.7%, PTEN -8.6%, PES -10.9%, PDS -12.3%, KEG -6.5%; Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP), which reportedly has launched a round of steep layoffs, -6.3%.
- Among independent producers: DNR -9.7%, NFX -4.6%, SM -8.6%, SGY -10%, SD -9.7%, EOG -5.3%, PXD -6.8%, QEP -6%, APC -4.2%, XEC -3%.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, PXI, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Mon, Jan. 5, 12:18 PM
- Energy stocks severely underperform the broader market, with the sector -4.2% vs. the S&P 500's -1.4%, as U.S. oil prices briefly slip below $50/bbl for the first time since April 2009; Nymex crude recently was -4.4% at $50.37, while Brent crude -5.9% at $53.08.
- Among the day's biggest losers: DNR -9%, RIG -7.6%, NBR -4.8%, CHK -5.9%, SDRL -9.1%, SD -12.3%, NOV -5.9%, PSX -6.2%, APA -5.9%, DVN -4.4%, EOG -6%, SU -5.2%, OXY -4.2%, APC -8.7%, PWE -9%, ECA -5.5%, MRO -5.3%.
- Global oil majors, which have been seen as less vulnerable to falling oil prices, are posting big losses: XOM -2.7%, COP -4.5%, CVX -3.8%, BP -5.8%, RDS.A -4.6%, TOT -6.5%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, PBW, BNO, GASL, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, QCLN, IEZ, UWTI, PXE, USL, PXI, FENY, DWTI, PXJ, DNO, PSCE, RYE, SZO, PUW, FXN, OLO, DDG, HECO, TWTI, OLEM
Dec. 22, 2014, 10:45 AM
- Natural gas prices fall 9.5% to near two-year lows at $3.133/mmBtu, in the biggest one-day percentage loss since February and the lowest intraday price since January 2013, on mild weather forecasts and inventory that is above year-ago levels.
- Prices are now down more than 15% in three straight losing sessions and are 30% lower than the six-month high closing price of $4.489/mmBtu it hit just a month ago.
- Weather has been unseasonably warm for December, limiting demand for home heating and allowing relatively low stockpiles to catch up to where they were a year ago and encouraging traders to sell based on the belief that supply is relatively healthy.
- Gas producers are among the biggest early decliners: XOM -1.1%, CHK -7.3%, APC -2.6%, SWN -6%, DVN -2.2%, COP -2.3%, BP -1.5%, COG -4%, BHP -1.9%, CVX -1.3%, ECA -5.1%, EQT -4.3%, RDS.A -1.7%, UPL -12%, WPX -6.9%, EOG -1%, OXY -1.1%, RRC -6.1%, APA -2.3%, AR -3.2%, CNX -3%, QEP -4.8%, LINE -4.9%, NBL -1.6%, SM -2.6%, XEC -4.2%, PXD -2.9%, NFX -5.1%.
- ETFs: UNG, DGAZ, UGAZ, BOIL, GAZ, FCG, GASL, KOLD, UNL, NAGS, DCNG
Dec. 2, 2014, 3:13 PM
- Apache (APA -1%), Bill Barrett (BBG -5.6%) and Laredo Petroleum (LPI -4.9%) are downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho, as the firm lowers its crude oil price deck and views OPEC's decision not to cut production as a structural shift in crude oil markets.
- Although the current excess supply/weak demand situation will be resolved gradually, market fundamentals will increasingly drive crude prices in a ~$70/bbl world, the firm says; in the E&P space, it prefers APC, MRO, FANG, RSPP and RICE.
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