Today, 3:39 PM
- Coal stocks (KOL -4.4%) are surrendering large chunks of their recent gains, as might be expected, but J.P. Morgan analysts think coal's share of the U.S. power market might have hit its low point, seeing grid inflexibility making a reduction in coal’s share below ~30% difficult without more investment in the grid, pipelines and more gas power plants.
- The JPM team thinks it is reasonable to assume that once the U.S. gas market begins to balance and the gas price picks up, coal’s market share will recover to the mid or even high 30s prior to the introduction of the greenhouse gas rule, assuming the rule overcomes its many legal challenges.
- Meanwhile, the firm cuts its 2016 EPS estimate on Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP -1.7%) to $0.83 from $0.89, and imitates a 2016 estimate on Peabody Energy (BTU -17.98%) for a loss of $0.37, Arch Coal (ACI -28.9%) for a loss of $6.78, and Cloud Peak Energy (CLD -22.1%) for a loss of $0.21.
Fri, Jul. 31, 6:16 PM
- Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP -1.7%) says it's completed acquiring the rest of the White Oak Resources equity interests that it didn't already own, and has updated production and financial guidance accordingly.
- The move means an Alliance unit takes operating control of White Oak Mine No. 1 in Illinois, producing 6M tons/year of high-sulfur coal.
- The company now guides to coal production of 42.8M-43.5M tons for the year, and sales volumes of 42.7M-43.8M tons.
- It also sees 2015 revenues (excluding transportation) of $2.37B-$2.41B -- above consensus of $2.36B -- and full-year EBITDA of $765M-$795M (in line) and net income of $405M-$435M.
- Alliance paid $50M at closing and may owe contingent consideration in the future. The company will hold a conference call to talk about the guidance on Monday at 11 a.m. ET.
Tue, Jul. 28, 7:25 AM
Tue, Jul. 28, 7:09 AM
Mon, Jul. 27, 5:30 PM
- AGCO, AHGP, AIXG, AKS, ALLY, AMG, ARG, ARLP, ARW, AUDC, AUO, AXE, BP, BTU, CIT, CMI, CNC, CNX, COMM, CPLA, CRY, CVLT, CYNO, DD, DHI, DHX, ECL, F, FBC, FCH, FDP, FMER, FSS, GLW, GPN, GRUB, ICLR, IPGP, IPI, IR, JBLU, JEC, KEM, LH, LPT, LYB, MAS, MMC, MRK, MZOR, NCI, NLSN, NOV, NTLS, OAK, OFC, PCAR, PCH, PCP, PFE, POR, RAI, RDWR, SALT, SIR, SIRI, ST, SVU, TXT, UPS, UTHR, WAT, WDR, WYN
Wed, Jul. 22, 11:34 AM
- J.P. Morgan finally gets around to downgrading Peabody Energy (BTU +11.7%), cutting its rating to Neutral from Overweight, two days after shares hit a 52-week low.
- After Arch Coal ([ACI]] +1.1%) and Alpha Natural’s (ANR +8.1%) share prices fell below $1, the spotlight fell on BTU, the firm explains, adding that the stock is vulnerable to squeezes, as 36% of BTU equity is now shorted; but in view of the firm's cautious commodity view on natural gas into year's end, it says it is "uncomfortable" with its Overweight rating on BTU.
- JPM says its coal Overweights are now restricted to Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP -1.9%) and Foresight Energy (FELP +2.1%).
Tue, Jul. 14, 3:43 PM
- Challenging results should be expected across the spectrum of coal producers, including Peabody Energy (BTU -3.3%), Cloud Peak Energy (CLD -1.5%), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR +0.6%) and Arch Coal (ACI +5.1%), Cowen analysts maintain, seeing average Q2 EBITDA estimates for the group ~4% below consensus.
- Among the coal names, Cowen says it is farthest below consensus for ACI (13% below consensus) and ANR (27% below consensus); amid deteriorating financial conditions, self-bonding capacity has become a hot topic for these companies and will be at the forefront of Q2 earnings calls.
- Cowen considers Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP +0.2%) its top pick and believes the company's White Oak transaction solidifies distribution growth potential; the firm rates ARLP, ACI and Foresight Energy (FELP -2.3%) at Outperform, and Natural Resource Partners (NRP -1.3%) and Teck Resources (TCK -0.2%) at Market Perform.
Thu, Jul. 9, 5:56 PM
- J.P. Morgan's John Bridges sees “no near term positive catalysts" for beaten-down coal stocks such as Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU), Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ:ARLP), Foresight Energy (NYSE:FELP) and Cloud Peak Energy (NYSE:CLD).
- The analyst notes that BTU has announced that it has overcome requests from Wyoming over self bonding of reclamation liabilities, but both Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) and Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE:ANR) remain under review; BTU, ACI and ANR "appear to have ~24 months before the risk of a 'maturity wall' of expiring debt though equity values may imply some thoughts about proactive filing."
- Bridges lowers its stock price targets for BTU to $5 from $7, ARLP to $33 from $40, and FELP to $17 from $18, and CLD to $6.50 from $7.
Tue, Jun. 30, 11:25 AM
- Coal companies (KOL -0.8%) are surrendering much of the gains they enjoyed following yesterday's Supreme Court decision against the EPA's mercury emissions regulations, as the initial reaction may prove rosier than the actual benefit to the coal industry.
- The consensus is that the ruling might force the EPA to be less aggressive about its efforts to cut pollution but will not help coal overcome competition from gas and alternative energy; also, the oversupply of natural gas likely will continue to depress the price of gas and reduce coal sales.
- The ruling could prove too late to provide a reprieve for most of the utilities that already had spent the resources to retrofit or retire, Sterne Agee analysts say, but lower MATS compliance operating costs could help some PRB coal power plants compete more aggressively on the margin with gas-fired power plants.
- Citigroup notes the news has important implications for the Clean Power Plan proposal scheduled to be finalized mid-summer 2015, and views the ruling as a net positive for the U.S. thermal coal market and miners such as Peabody Energy (BTU -11.3%), Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP +1.5%),Alliance Holdings (AHGP -0.1%) and Foresight Energy (FELP +0.1%).
- Also: ACI -4.7%, ANR -6.9%, CLD -7%, WLB -2.9%, WLT -12.9%.
Tue, Apr. 28, 6:06 PM
Tue, Apr. 28, 6:03 PM
Mon, Apr. 27, 5:35 PM
- ACGL, ACHC, AEGN, AFL, AHGP, AKAM, AMCC, ANIK, ARI, ARLP, AUY, AZPN, BGFV, BLDP, BMR, BOOM, BWLD, BXMT, CALX, CBL, CEB, CGI, CHE, CINF, CLF, CMRE, CNL, CRUS, DDR, DHT, EEFT, EIX, EPIQ, EPR, EQR, ESRT, ESRX, EXAC, FARO, FEIC, GNW, GPRE, GPRO, HAWK, HELE, HIW, HLIT, HURN, IACI, INAP, IPHI, KALU, KBR, KRFT, LOGM, MRCY, MSTR, MTSI, MWA, NANO, NATI, NCR, NVDQ, OHI, OI, OTEX, PEI, PNRA, RNG, RPXC, RRC, RSYS, SKT, SLCA, SWI, TAHO, TE, TPX, TSS, TWTR, ULTI, VRSK, WDC, WRI, WSH, WYNN, X, XCO, XOOM
Thu, Feb. 26, 2:45 PM
- J.P. Morgan analysts see some encouraging signs for coal (NYSEARCA:KOL), which would be good news for companies such as Peabody Energy (BTU -5.7%), Cloud Peak Energy (CLD -5%), Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP +0.9%) and Foresight Energy (FELP -1.2%).
- Coal equities have bounced off lows, the JPM crew says, which meshes with its belief that the greater financial challenges faced by oil and gas E&Ps should reduce natural gas supply and help coal prices later this year and into 2016.
- JPM has Overweight ratings on the two MLP coal miners ARLP and FELP, which it expects to benefit as the gas market tightens in 2016 and with the added attraction of yield in a yield-starved world; BTU and CLD enjoy stronger balance sheets, which should see the companies through what could still be a sloppy coal market in 2015.
- Alpha Natural Resources (ANR -6.9%) and Arch Coal (ACI -4.3%), however, acquired so much debt that their equity effectively has become primarily an “option" on fluctuations in the coal market, the analysts say.
Wed, Jan. 28, 7:47 AM
Wed, Jan. 28, 7:07 AM
Tue, Jan. 27, 5:30 PM| Tue, Jan. 27, 5:30 PM | 1 Comment
ARLP vs. ETF Alternatives
Alliance Resource Partners LPis a diversified producer and marketer of coal to United States utilities and industrial users. It operates ten underground mining complexes in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia.
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