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ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR)

- NYSE
  • Tue, Feb. 24, 4:48 PM
    • Q4 core earnings of $41.1M or $0.10 per share vs. $49M and $0.13 in Q3. Q4 dividends were $0.15 and have since been cut to $0.12.
    • Book value per share of $4.39 down from $4.58 at the end of Q3. Today's close of $3.15 is probably a deserved 28% discount to book.
    • Net interest margin in Q4 of 1.27% down 16 basis points from Q3. CPR of 6.45% down 101 basis points.
    • Leverage ratio of 7.94:1 vs. 8.42:1 in Q3.
    • Conference call tomorrow at 8 ET
    • Previously: ARMOUR Residential REIT misses by $0.02 (Feb. 24)
    • ARR +1.9% after hours
    | 7 Comments
  • Tue, Feb. 24, 4:37 PM
    • ARMOUR Residential REIT (NYSE:ARR): Q4 EPS of $0.10 misses by $0.02.
    • Press Release
    | Comment!
  • Mon, Feb. 2, 2:52 PM
    • "The combination of a negative duration and relatively long dated hedges lead to book value underperformance in a flat curve environment," merits a downgrade to Underperfrom for Armour Residential (ARR -5.9%), says analyst Doug Harter.
    • "With above-average economic return volatility we expect CYS Investments (CYS -2.8%) to continue to have one of the lower price to book multiples among the Agency-only REITs," he says, also cutting to Underperform.
    • Tight credit spreads combining with low yields will make it tough for New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT -2.2%) to meaningfully expand core EPS enough to cover the dividend, says Harter, cutting that stock to Underperform. He also notes NYMT has the highest price-to-book ratio in his mREIT coverage universe.
    • Harter and team, however, still see some attractive values given the 12.9% discount to book the sector is selling for. PennyMac Mortgage Investment (PMT +0.2%), Two Harbors (TWO -0.7%) and New Residential (NRZ -1.6%) remain among top picks (though PMT and especially NRZ can hardly be considered mREITs).
    • Previously: Credit Suisse downgrades three mortgage REITs (Feb. 2)
    • Previously: JPMorgan previews Q4 for mREITs (Feb. 2)
    | 12 Comments
  • Mon, Feb. 2, 7:33 AM
    • Armour Residential (ARR -1.5%), CYS Investments (CYS -0.6%), and New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT -1.4%) are all downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
    • The details aren't yet available, but the team is no doubt eyeing the sharp flattening in the yield curve of late, and what that might do to earnings power going forward. Also, the sharp drop in bond yields could set the stage for a jump in refinancing, and thus prepayments.
    • As for valuation, both Armour and CYS trade at sizable discounts to their last reported (Sept. 30) book value, while NYMT sells for a premium - a rarity in mREIT land these days.
    • ARR is the only mover premarket, -2.4%.
    | 19 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 28, 4:05 PM
    • The iShares Barclays MBS Bond Fund (MBB +0.2%) hit a new lifetime high, which should be good for the book values of mortgage REITs (assuming they weren't too hedged), but the yield curve continues to sharply flatten. The 10-year Treasury yield is all the way down to 1.71% and the 30-year at a record-low 2.29% - this as the Fed says it's on track for a mid-year rate hike.
    • In addition to shaving margins for leveraged holders of mortgages, the lower rates could result in another refinance wave, and thus a surge in prepayments.
    • Annaly Capital (NLY -1%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.6%), Armour Residential (ARR -0.7%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -0.7%), Western Asset (WMC -2.2%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -0.7%)
    • ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL
    • Previously: Bond yields slide after FOMC (Jan. 28)
    • Previously: FOMC: Still "patient," but rate hike remains on the way (Jan. 28)
    | 9 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 14, 1:17 PM
    • Agency MBS are off to their worst start relative to Treasurys since 1997 as the big drop in interest rates has investors nervous about a surge in refinancing. Returns on paper backed by Fannie, Freddie, or Ginnie Mae are 60 basis points less than those on Treasurys of similar duration so far this month.
    • Also stoking the trend are changes to government programs aimed at making mortgage credit easier to obtain.
    • Earlier today, the MBA reported applications for home-loan refis jumped 66% last week.
    • Prices of agency MBS currently average 106.5 cents on the dollar, meaning owners would lose 6.5% if immediately repaid.
    • Annaly Capital (NLY -1.3%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.2%), Armour Residential (ARR -2%), Two Harbors (TWO -0.9%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR -1.9%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -1.3%), Dynex (DX -0.5%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -1.2%), Anworth (ANH -0.9%), Western Asset (WMC -1.6%).
    • ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL
    | 40 Comments
  • Tue, Jan. 6, 2:17 PM
    • The 10-year yield has plunged all the way down to 1.94% and one would figure on some nice increases in book value for the mortgage REITs (REM -0.1%), but on the flip side are narrowing interest rate spreads (especially as the Fed still seems to be intent on hiking short rates), and what hedging losses the companies are taking.
    • Other ETFs: MORT, MORL
    • Individual names: Annaly Capital (NLY +0.4%), American Capital Agency (AGNC), Armour Residential (ARR -1%), CYS Investments (CYS -0.2%), Invesco Mortgage (IVZ -2.7%), New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT -0.5%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -0.3%), Western Asset Mortgage (WMC -2.7%), Ellington Residential (EARN -0.4%), Javelin Mortgage (JMI -3%).
    | 20 Comments
  • Dec. 30, 2014, 12:37 PM
    • Nearly all the mREITs sell at discounts to their most recently disclosed book value, with sector giants Annaly Mortgage (NYSE:NLY) and American Capital Agency (NASDAQ:AGNC) trading at double-digit discounts.
    • Often a sizable haircut to book may make sense, as in the case of Armour Residential (NYSE:ARR) and Javelin Mortgage (NYSE:JMI), both of which just cut their dividend (they have the same external manager).
    • Of the 24 companies examined, New York Mortgage Trust (NASDAQ:NYMT) and Capstead Mortgage (NYSE:CMO) stand alone in trading at premiums to book value.
    • The full list
    | 10 Comments
  • Dec. 23, 2014, 7:24 AM
    • Armour Residential (NYSE:ARR) cuts its monthly payout by 20% - from $0.05 per share to $0.04. The annualized yield based on last night's close is 12.7%.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Shares -4% premarket to $3.63.
    | 5 Comments
  • Dec. 9, 2014, 12:57 PM
    • Unable to catch a bid for a few sessions, mortgage REITs (REM +1%) have turned higher in afternoon action, led by Annaly (NLY +0.7%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.5%).
    • Helping are jitters in the stock market (though U.S. averages are well off the lows), and a 10-year Treasury yield that's retreated all the way to 2.21% after hitting the mid-2.30s on the back of Friday's strong jobs number.
    • Armour (ARR +1.1%), Two Harbors (TWO +0.9%), CYS Investments (CYS +1.4%), Invesco (IVR +1.8%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +1%), Hatteras Financial (HTS +2%), Capstead (CMO +2%).
    • Other ETFs: MORT, MORL
    • Also showing some green are the recently beaten-up BDCs, including Prospect Capital (PSEC +0.2%), Fifth Street Finance (FSC +0.2%), Ares Capital (ARCC +0.5%), FS Investment (FSIC), Triangle Capital (TCAP +1.7%).
    • ETFs: BDCL, BDCS, BIZD
    • Previously: Money flows back into fixed income (Dec. 9, 2014)
    | 16 Comments
  • Dec. 5, 2014, 10:12 AM
    | 33 Comments
  • Oct. 31, 2014, 10:07 AM
    • Compass Point pulls the plug on its Buy recommendation on Armour Residential (ARR -0.5%) following the Q3 earnings report this week.
    • Most metrics were soft, with core income failing to cover the dividend, book value falling, and net interest spread narrowing amid climbing prepayments.
    • The current price of $3.95 is a 13.8% discount to Sept. 30 book value.
    • Previously: Rising prepayments ding Armour Residential
    | 4 Comments
  • Oct. 29, 2014, 5:16 PM
    • Q3 core income of $49M or $0.13 per share vs. $50.9M and $0.13 in Q2. Quarterly dividends of $0.15.
    • Book value per share of $4.58 slips from $4.90 at end of Q2. Today's close of $4.00 is a 12.7% discount to book.
    • Net interest margin of 1.43% slips three basis points from Q2.
    • CPR of 7.46% up 234 basis points from Q2.
    • Leverage of 8.42:1 vs. 7.9:1 one quarter ago.
    • Previously: ARMOUR Residential REIT misses by $0.02
    • ARR -0.5% AH
    • Previously: ARMOUR Residential REIT misses by $0.02
    | 3 Comments
  • Oct. 29, 2014, 4:58 PM
    • ARMOUR Residential REIT (NYSE:ARR): Q3 EPS of $0.13 misses by $0.02.
    • Press Release
    | 2 Comments
  • Oct. 29, 2014, 1:43 PM
    • Fed purchases of mortgage-backed securities are ending today, but reinvestments are likely to keep a firm bid in the market, says Deutsche's MBS team. The "real risk" to the MBS market won't come until the Fed ends reinvestments - early 2016 at the soonest, and maybe not until 2017.
    • QE's end, says the team, leaves the Fed with $1.7T in MBS holdings and private investors with just $3.5T. The Fed's massive holdings - 1/3 of the universal amount, but 1/2 of dollar duration - keep a source of volatility out of the market.
    • The end of the Fed as a net buyer will be about the first time since the early 1990s when MBS haven't been getting a bid from either the GSEs, Treasury, or Fed.
    • ETFs" REM, MORT, MORL
    • Names of interest: Annaly (NLY -1.6%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -2.5%), Armour (ARR -1.2%), Hatteras (HTS -1.6%), CYS Investments (CYS -1.7%)
    | 7 Comments
  • Oct. 9, 2014, 10:40 AM
    • It's been a good week for mortgage REITs (REM +0.7%) which rose on Tuesday as the broad market tumbled and brought yields down with it, rose more on Wednesday, this time alongside a major broad market rally on dovish FOMC minutes, and are on the move higher again today as the averages again head south.
    • Down to 2.28% earlier in the session (a 16-month low), the 10-year Treasury yield is now flat on the day at 2.32%.
    • This week's strong move comes following a tough September in which the mREITs gave back a nice chunk of their YTD gains.
    • Annaly (NLY +1.2%) is up nearly 5% over the last four sessions. American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.5%) is ahead more than 6%.
    • Others: Armour (ARR +1%), Chimera (CIM +1%), CYS Investments (CYS +1.2%), New York Mortgage (NYMT +1.3%), Anworth (ANH +0.8%), Dynex (DX +1%), Javelin (JMI +1.5%), Five Oaks (OAKS +0.9%).
    • Other ETFs: MORT, MORL
    | 5 Comments
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Company Description
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc invests in and manages a leveraged portfolio of residential mortgage backed securities. The Company is externally managed by ARMOUR Residential Management LLC, pursuant to a management agreement.
Sector: Financial
Country: United States