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Wed, Jul. 9, 5:29 PM
- Global PC shipments fell only 1.7% Y/Y in Q2 to 74.4M, says IDC. That's much better than the firm's forecast for a 7.1% drop, and smaller than the 4.4% and 5.6% declines respectively seen in Q1 and Q4. Gartner is even more positive, estimating shipments rose 0.1%, thus ending a long string of declines.
- Unsurprisingly (especially given INTC's Q2 guidance hike), IDC thinks business PC upgrades stemming from Microsoft's (MSFT) ending of Win. XP support helped out. But it also says consumer demand was better than expected, with sales of low-end PCs (inc. Chromebooks) improving amid slowing tablet growth.
- Sales in the U.S. and EMEA (two high-ASP regions) rose, while Asia-Pac (exc. Japan) still fell by nearly double digits. IDC now thinks full-year industry growth "could get closer to flat, rather than the May projection of -6%."
- IDC's Q1 share data points to industry leaders gaining at the expense of smaller players: Lenovo (LNVGY) 19.6% share, +270 bps Y/Y. H-P (HPQ) 18.3%, +190 bps. Dell 14%, +180 bps. Acer (ACEIY) 8.2%, -10 bps. Asus (ASUTY) 6.2%, +30 bps. Everyone else 33.6%, -690 bps.
- HPQ +0.6% AH. Other names with strong PC exposure: AMD, NVDA, MU, STX, WDC, HTCH.
Fri, May. 2, 12:43 PM
- Citing strong phablet sales and extended upgrade cycles (something CIRP has already observed), IDC estimates global tablet shipments only rose 3.9% Y/Y in Q1 to 50.4M units. That's a marked slowdown from Q4's 28.2% growth, and also below IDC's full-year growth forecast of 19.4%.
- Worth noting: Q1 comps were especially tough, given IDC estimated year-ago shipments were up 142% Y/Y. Easier comps for later quarters could help growth rebound a bit.
- Apple (AAPL +0.3%), which last week reported its Q1 iPad units fell 16% Y/Y to 16.4M (Tim Cook partly blamed inventory changes), saw its share drop to 32.5% from 33.2% in Q4 and 40.2% a year ago. With the iPad's ASP at a steep $465, Apple's revenue share might still be above 50%.
- Android (GOOG) tablets now make up ~2/3 of shipments - that's a positive for Google's traffic acquisition costs, given the huge Mobile Safari search ad payments it makes to Apple.
- Samsung (SSNLF) grew its share to 22.3% from 18.8% in Q4 and 17.5% a year ago. Asus (ASUUY) had 5% of the market vs. 5.4% a year ago, and Lenovo (LNVGY) grew its share to 4.1% from a mere 1.3%.
- While tablet growth slows, IDC has estimated the ongoing decline in PC shipments narrowed to 4.4% in Q1. Garner estimated a mere 1.7% drop.
Fri, Mar. 7, 7:05 PM
- Citing "slowing consumer purchases" amid high penetration rates in mature markets, IDC now forecasts tablet shipments will grow 19.4% in 2014 (to 260.9M units), down from a prior estimate of 22% (271M units).
- Tablet growth steadily slowed in 2014: Shipments rose an estimated 142% in Q1, but just 28% in Q4. IDC puts full-year growth at 52%.
- Two silver linings for high-end/enterprise leader Apple (AAPL - 33.8% Q4 share): 1) ASPs are only expected to drop 3.6% in 2014, after falling 14.6% in 2013, as more consumers embrace "higher-end devices." 2) Commercial buyers are expected to account for 14% of shipments, up from 11% in 2013.
- IDC also thinks Windows (MSFT) tablets, struggling to gain a strong consumer foothold, will take over a quarter of the commercial segment thanks to rising convertible adoption.
- The revised forecast still puts tablet sales within striking distance of eclipsing PC sales: IDC expects PC shipments to drop 6% this year to 295.9M. Smartphone shipments are expected to grow 19% to 1.2B.
- Major tablet OEMs (besides Apple): SSNLF, LNVGY, AKCPF
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