Alliant Techsystems Inc. (ATK)
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- 13 Defense and Aerospace Stocks to Consider [view article]
- Is the Macdonald Dettwiler/Alliant Space Deal Dead? [view article]
- Will the Comdev Side Deal Solve Alliant's Problems? [view article]
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13 Defense and Aerospace Stocks to Consider [view article]
I totally disagree. With the US budget deficit ballooning as we bail out the financial sector, and as raising taxes is not popular, the only way is deal with an alarming budget deficit is to cut spending especially military spending. This is in particular true if Obam wins the elections. I would short the defense sector. Replyalpha
13 Defense and Aerospace Stocks to Consider [view article]
mtp was correct, we had the wrong ticker up for Goodrich -- thanks for catching it, and the article should now reflect the correction. Replyst
13 Defense and Aerospace Stocks to Consider [view article]
First a correction...defense spending rose in the final two years of the Clinton administration and began its decline under Bush Sr.Don't believe that a democratic victory in november will not necessary mean a decline in defense spending. Also don't believe that a democratic congress will increase spending on defense just because a republican is in the white house. Defense stocks have declined because of the perception held by aerowain but the actual budget is likely to remain the same regardless of who wins. There was a point made in the recent spade investor newsletter, a freebie from the people who put out the spade defense index if you're not familiar with it, that any decline in spending regardless of who wins would wipe out the party in future elections in the aftermath of another terrorist incident. I can picture the political ads that would run for 10 or 20 years pushing this fact, and I imagine so can you. The money would obviously be spent in differing places but that might not be a bad thing. And with the U.S. budget and financial mess we are in, it will preclude an increase in defense spending that aerorick is highlighting under a mccain presidency. Don't get me wrong, I think defense (and aerospace) stocks are hugely undervalued at this point and have put money into PPA (the powershares ETF) but I think the reality of the earnings and revenues the company's post won't be that different regardless of the winner in the upcoming election. Reply
13 Defense and Aerospace Stocks to Consider [view article]
how could you fail to include the best of the best, Precision Castparts PCP, a rare gem? Reply
13 Defense and Aerospace Stocks to Consider [view article]
Defense stocks should be bought today if, and only if, the purchaser believes Republicans retain the White House in six weeks. The Democratic candidate will, much as the incumbent from 1992-2000, gut the military budget which has roughly doubled the past seven years, excluding war-fighting supplements which bring total spending even higher. Deterring an increasingly outrageously behaving natural resource-fortified Russia, and ambiguous but nonetheless very real Chinese military power, will require a further 40-50% spending increase in real dollars over 6 years to 5-6% of GDP from 4.5% today, bringing annual spending to $700-750 billion in 2014, imputing 8-10% compound growth in contractor revenues and 12-14% per share earnings. A Democratic administration will follow an internationalist agenda focused on multilateral institutions and reduce spending toward the 2-3% of GDP of the mid-late 1990s, when the party last held power, imputing 5%-8% annual reductions in contractor revenues and 10-15% lower earnings as the cutbacks will fall disproportionately on weaponry and services. P/Es that today are roughly market multiples will rapidly jump 30%, or more, if McCain wins, while the market will be slower to cast an Obama victory as negatively as our analysis casts, hence a protracted sell-off as reported fundamentals climb into 2010 from the last Bush budget (FY09). We believe the odds favor the bull case, so we continue to recommend purchase of leading aerospace/defense shares such as GD, NOC, LLL, RTN, BA, COL, CW, MOG/A, GR and PCP, but will have more to say on November 5th. Reply13 Defense and Aerospace Stocks to Consider [view article]
not only do they not know that DRS is being sold to Finmeccanica, they also took the wrong Goodrich - try GR instead. do some homework before posting as well... Reply13 Defense and Aerospace Stocks to Consider [view article]
A true expert.Does n ot seem to know DRS sale to an Italian company is in final stage. ReplyIs the Macdonald Dettwiler/Alliant Space Deal Dead? [view article]
"[...] hordes of money at MDA only to see them [...]"Do you think that Canada did not get value for the contracts they let to MDA? On Radarsat-2? On Canadarm2? On Dextre? You think MDA's margins are higher than those of Boeing or Lockheed Martin? Even the largest Canadian military-industrial-ae... companies are categorically different than the large U.S. corporations. A better comparison in terms of both line of business and business opportunities are mid-sized companies like AeroAstro, Ball Aerospace, or the former Swales.
Why are we asking about Canadian space policy? Why is it that CSA's budget has stalled? Yet their bureaucratic staff has expanded by 20%? And their space program output has decreased by more than 1/3rd?
There is a dearth of leadership that shows no signs of improving. The same vacuum of vision and leadership set up the conditions from MDA seeking the sale and ironically has stymied it. And the CSA bureacracy will continue to feed itself on its allowance ever-decreasing real dollars while doing little to engage the taxpayers in the very tangible economic and technological benefits inherent in the work.
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Is the Macdonald Dettwiler/Alliant Space Deal Dead? [view article]
I worked at MDA and on the Radarsat-2 program from 2001-2003, and with 20years of space industry experience in the US it was clear during that time that MDA's management were living fast and free with reality. Building the company up into a "world class space company" is not realistic in Canada as there are simply not enough govenment contracts to support it; contracts which form the foundation of all the successful American and European industry. Try as they might, acquire as much as they did, MDA's business model was doomed and only foolish notions of being players in the international space industry by MDA's senior management kept them going for as long as they did.Can there be a Canadian space prime contractor? Clearly the answer is no unless the govenment is willing to spend much more on space. The government tried building Spar into one and failed; that company broke up and is no more. Then they threw hordes of money at MDA only to see them give up and looking for a profitable exit. Canada needs smaller, more nimble space companies that can succeed internationally like Comdev rather than ones trying to become the next Lockheed. That is where your success will lie. Reply
Is the Macdonald Dettwiler/Alliant Space Deal Dead? [view article]
For more insight into this blog's assertions and other sloppy journalism, have a peek:communities.canada.com...
The investment community is just starting to grapple with Prentice's knee-jerk reaction to a situation he only poorly understands.
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Is the Macdonald Dettwiler/Alliant Space Deal Dead? [view article]
MDA is an older company than Orbital and was only owned by Orbital for a few years. Most of the work MDA has done, and its key technological capabilities were developed while it was either a private or public Canadian owned firm. MDA today encompasses a large part of Canada's space industry (more than when it was owned by Orbital), as well as capacities in other sectors. Selling it to a US weapons company for intangible claims of improved access to the US market (as these claims have not been substantiated by any evidence I can not even call them speculative) is wrong. ReplyIs the Macdonald Dettwiler/Alliant Space Deal Dead? [view article]
Is this business part of the old Orbital by chance which is and has been a US corporation?By the way, the first largescale US sellout to the UK was Tracor to BAE even before Sanders. Tracor had the Tomahawk targeting software algorithms plus some heads up displays, countermeasures, etc. Reply
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Is the Macdonald Dettwiler/Alliant Space Deal Dead? [view article]
You seam to forget the sale of Lockheed Martin's Sanders Division to BAE a UK firm. This was one of the first major defense businesses in the US that was sold to a non US company. That said I do agree that it was in Canada's best interest to prevent this sale; however, now they question is what is Canada going to do to maintain and build this "asset" they need to protect their arctic region. The answer is they need to develop the industry; space and aerospace as a whole. In 2006 the Canadian government spent around $386 Million on Space. The US spent 38.6 BILLION in that same year. If RadarSat-2, CanadArm 1 and 2, and Dextre are assets of national pride then what are you doing to build upon that legacy? In the use the Aerospace Industry employes almost 600K people, in Canada about 80K? There is alot of work to be done by the government to stand behind it's words if they are to be see as anything more then just words. ReplyWill the Comdev Side Deal Solve Alliant's Problems? [view article]
We are already "out of the weeds"- the sort of compromise mentioned in this article will just pull us back down. The problems with this deal go far beyond RADARSAT2. The sale is only good for some shareholders looking fro a quick profit and a certain US weapons company ReplyIs the Macdonald Dettwiler/Alliant Space Deal Dead? [view article]
You know that every time someone pulls that old “Arrow” chestnut out of the fire – I can only thank goodness that Canada never finished the development of that beautiful and over-priced jet with no market potential.This was a bad decision by Prentice – a populist one no doubt – but a poorly thought out decision.
It merely sends the message to all clever entrepreneurs that Canada is a poor place to develop and nurture businesses. As an owner, you should have the right to sell your business in the marketplace without the government (owning no shares) deciding
that it is not in the “national” interest for you to maximize shareholder value.
The immediate result is much cheering and singing of "Oh Canada" like that shown by the author. The long term effect is the loss of potential new enterprises by clever risk-takers who see a more nurturing environment elsewhere.
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