I have been discussing ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG) with a reader for a while. I post his thoughts here for a few reasons. Knowing him to be a thoughtful person, his opinion carries value and we also have a presentation from 2008’s VIC on it here when the stock was at $7. It now sits at $16.69.

Note: I am neither recommending buying or avoiding this, I post simply for readers to make their own judgement. This is particularly interesting as we have a years worth of data to review.

I’ve written three previous times about ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG) this year (see here, here and here). I’m going to keep this one brief because I believe the case for very significant stock price appreciation over the next year is getting pretty obvious.

There are three parts to this story.

The second quarter reporting period is fast approaching as we enter the month of October. Since the last earnings season ended with Wal-Mart's report on August 13th, the S&P 500 is up 4.73%. From our Interactive Earnings Report Database, we grabbed all stocks that reported last earnings season and calculated their performance since their last earnings report. This performance is calculated from the close on the first trading day following their earnings reports, so it does not include the big initial one-day moves.

As shown below, YRCW is up the most since its last earnings report with a gain of 231%. YRCW is followed by GCI (+161%), UAUA (+147%), BPOP (+146%), and ATPG (+136%). There aren't many big names on the list of winners, but the stocks that did make the list did something to grab investors' attentions. ARRY has done the worst since its last report with a decline of 43.5%.

Gulf Islands Fabrication Inc. (GIFI), at Friday's closing price of 18.06, is a value play in the oil and gas equipment and services industry. The initial attraction is a combination of low P/B (1.0) and low Price/5 Year Average Earnings (11.5). The company has numerous strengths, which over time should allow it to overcome current weakness in revenue and backlog and participate strongly in the growth area of deep water equipment.

I picked up the idea from a screen by Alan Brochstein here on Seeking Alpha. Checking further, the same name appears on a screen he did on 3/28 which also included Carbo Ceramics (CRR) and Lufkin Industries (LUFK), both successful picks I wrote up favorably and bought for my discretionary account. To some extent I work by affinity – I follow Alan and since this idea is a case where our thinking leads in the same direction, I did my own research, developing the following information and opinion.

Hedge fund manager Greenlight Capital sold out of a number of positions over the second quarter of 2009. Overall, the firm made purchases of $417mm, while selling $1,148mm, for a net change of $730mm.

Since there seemed to be no broad trends regarding Greenlight Capital’s investments over the quarter, it is clear the firm screened equity investments on a company by company basis. The four new purchases made over the quarter include two insurers, a healthcare company, and a natural gas producer:

• Fannie asks for cash after loss. Fannie Mae (FNM) posted a heavy Q2 loss of $14.8B (see details below), its eighth quarterly loss in a row, prompting the mortgage lender to ask the government for a $10.7B capital injection. Fannie's cumulative losses over the last two years now stand at $101.6B, and the company has drawn $44.9B from the Treasury since April. The company said "we do not expect to operate profitably in the foreseeable future. We expect that we will experience adverse financial effects" during the fight against foreclosures. Shares fell 12.7% in after hours trading. Shares -11.4% premarket (7:00 ET).
• Greenberg settles SEC charges. Hank Greenberg, former CEO and chairman of AIG (AIG), agreed to pay $15M to settle SEC charges accusing him of improper accounting transactions between 2000 and 2005. The SEC also charged former CFO Howard Smith, saying the two men 'were responsible for material misstatements' that created a 'false impression' of AIG's financial results. Smith settled with the SEC for $1.5M. (Read the SEC's statement)
• Broker admits lying in fraud case. Julian Tzolov, a former Credit Suisse (CS) broker, testified before a jury that he and former partner Eric Butler lied to clients and sent them inaccurate information to cover up risky investments. In one of the first criminal trials connected to the credit crunch, Tzolov said he and Butler told clients certain securities were backed by government-guaranteed student loans when this was not the case, and that they did so in part to receive higher commissions. Butler is on trial for fraud, and Tzolov was called as a witness after pleading guilty to securities fraud, wire fraud, conspiracy and bail jumping last month.
• NYT looking to sell Globe. The New York Times (NYT) confirmed for the first time that it has hired Goldman Sachs to help sell its Boston Globe and Worcester Telegram & Gazette newspapers, as well as their websites. In a regulatory filing, the company said the possible sale is part of a strategic restructuring in response to a heavy downturn in advertising and the migration of readers to the internet.
• RBS posts loss on bad loans. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) posted a loss of £1.04B in H1, falling far short of the £1.1B profit consensus, after setting aside £7.52B ($12.62B) to cover bad loans. The bank expects impairments to remain at 'elevated levels,' and "there is every sign that our financial performance over the next two years, at a group level, will be poor due to the severe economic downturn in 2008 and 2009 and consequent impact on impairments and funding costs." Shares -14% premarket (7:00 ET).
• FDIC chided for lax supervision. An agency watchdog found the FDIC failed to act in a timely manner to limit the commercial real estate losses that caused the collapse of two banks in Washington and Georgia. The watchdog's report said the FDIC could have exercised 'greater supervisory concern' after finding weaknesses in the banks' loan portfolios. (Read reports I and II (.pdf))
• Twitter falls silent. Twitter and Facebook suffered outages and delays yesterday after denial of service attacks, raising the possibility of 'a single, massively coordinated attack' on social networking sites. Both services have been restored. Google (GOOG) managed to fend off a similar attack yesterday.
• Exchanges back away from flash. The Nasdaq stock exchange and BATS exchange announced separately that they're both voluntarily ending the flash trading they started this year, effective September 1. The moves come amid an SEC investigation into the practice and ahead of a likely ban. Direct Edge, a fast growing rival that has used flash trading since 2006, continues to defend the practice.
• Morgan leaves TARP behind. Morgan Stanley (MS) paid $950M to repurchase the warrant it issued the government, bringing Morgan's total payment to the government, including dividends, to $1.268B. CEO John Mack struck a positive note, saying "we appreciate the critical role that the U.S. government played last fall in helping stabilize the banking industry and financial markets at a moment of unprecedented crisis."
• AmEx sees loan loss improvement. American Express (AXP) said write-offs tied to bad credit-card debt fell sharply for the second straight month, to 9.2% in July from 9.7% in June, and CEO Kenneth Chenault said he's seeing internal credit metrics improve for the first time in 18 months. Despite the positive improvements, analysts warned it's too soon to call a sector recovery, with many attributing the drop in charge-offs to a seasonal trend. In the specific case of American Express, Chenault was very clear that the improvements of the last two months are 'not seasonality.'
• Clunkers gets new funds. As expected, the Senate approved an additional $2B for the 'Cash for Clunkers' program. The measure passed 60-37.
• Jobless claims drop. Initial jobless claims came in at 550K, down 38K from a week ago (revised), and better than the 575K consensus. Continuing claims rose 69K to 6.31M.
• Same-store sales slide. Retailers reported monthly same-store sales yesterday, with most falling short of consensus estimates. July sales were hurt by the continued trend of shoppers cutting back and waiting for discounts, and by a later start to the back-to-school shopping season.

Earnings: Friday Before Open

• AIG (AIG): Q2 EPS of $2.57 vs. consensus of $1.67 (may not be comparable). Revenue of $29.5B (+48%) vs. $26B. Shares +3.6% premarket (7:10 ET). (PR)
• American Oriental Bioengineering (AOB): Q2 EPS of $0.17 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $71M (+21%) vs. $75M. (PR)
• ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG): Q2 EPS of -$0.10 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $81M (-58%) vs. $83M. (PR)
• Cimarex Energy Co (XEC): Q2 EPS of $0.46 vs. $0.41 consensus (may not be comparable). Revenue of $223M (-64%) vs. $219M. (PR)
• Magna International (MGA): Q2 EPS of -$1.29 misses by $0.28. Revenue of $3.7B (-45%) vs. $4.1M. (PR)
• Mirant Corp. (MIR): Q2 EPS of $1.12 vs. consensus of $0.49 (may not be comparable). Revenue of $496M vs. $546M.
• Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH): Q2 FFO of $0.44 in-line. Revenue of $69M (+32%) vs. $68M. (PR)
• Warner Chilcott (WCRX): Q2 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $251M (+7%) vs. $252M. (PR)

Earnings: Thursday After Close

• Alkermes (ALKS): FQ1 EPS of $0.01 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $47.5M (-41%) vs. $46.4M. (PR)
• Assured Guaranty (AGO): Q2 EPS of $0.46 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $115M (-3%). (PR)
• Beazer (BZH): FQ3 EPS of -$0.72 beats by $0.81. Revenue of $225M (-51%) vs. $226M. (PR)
• CBS (CBS): Q2 EPS of $0.08 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $3B (-11%) in-line. (PR)
• Chiquita (CQB): Q2 EPS of $1.95 beats by $1.13. Revenue of $955M (-4%) vs. $873M. (PR)
• Computer Sciences (CSC): FQ1 EPS of $0.85 beats by $0.34. Revenue of $3.9B (-12%) in-line. Raises full-year EPS guidance to $4.80-5.00 from $4.20-4.30, vs. $4.18. (PR)
• Crocs (CROX): Q2 EPS of -$0.06 beats by $0.15. Revenue of $198M (-11%) vs. $150M. Sees Q3 EPS of -$0.14 to -$0.16 vs. -$0.20. Sees Q3 sales of $150M-160M vs. $141M. (PR)
• DCT Industrial Trust (DCT): Q2 EPS of $0.12 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $60M (-3%) vs. $61M. (PR)
• Emulex (ELX): FQ4 EPS of $0.09 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $79M (-30%) vs. $78M. (PR)
• EOG Resources (EOG): Q2 EPS of $0.73 beats by $0.31. Revenue of $861M (-21%) vs. $966M. PR)
• Fannie Mae (FNM): Q2 EPS of -$2.67. Revenue of $5.6B (+41%). (.pdf)
• Hansen Natural (HANS): Q2 EPS of $0.60 in-line. Revenue of $300M (+6%) vs. $309M. (PR)
• Intrepid Potash (IPI): Q2 EPS of $0.19 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $73M (-30%) vs. $72M. (PR)
• Leap Wireless International (LEAP): Q2 EPS of -$0.89 misses by $0.59. Revenue of $597M (+26%) vs. $636M. Net customer additions of 203,000 (+19%). Churn of 4.4%. Reduces guidance on full-year net customer addition to 1.5M. (PR)
• Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM): FQ4 EPS of $0.11 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $395M (-21%) vs. $368M. Sees Q1 revenue of $415M-445M vs. $388M. (PR)
• Microchip Technology (MCHP): FQ1 EPS of $0.15 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $193M (-28%) vs. $190M. Gross margin in Q1 of 51.4%. Sees Q2 EPS of $0.18-0.20 vs. $0.17. Sees Q3 revenue of $206M-214M vs. $200M. (PR)
• Nvidia (NVDA): Q2 EPS of $0.07 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $777M (-13%) vs. $710M. Sees Q3 revenue up 5-7% over Q2. (PR)
• Pepco Holdings (POM): Q2 EPS of $0.11 misses by $0.13. Revenue of $2.1B (-18%) vs. $2.7B. (PR)
• Public Storage (PSA): Q2 FFO of $1.25 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $347M (-4%) vs. $394M. (PR)
• Rovi Corp. (ROVI): Q2 EPS of $0.38 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $120M (+64%) vs. $110M. (PR)
• Sapient (SAPE): Q2 EPS of $0.10 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $148M (-11%) vs. $144M. (PR)
• SandRidge Energy (SD): Q2 EPS of $0.25 beats by $0.12. EBITDA of $144M (-18%). (PR)
• Sequenom (SQNM): Q2 EPS of -$0.33 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $9M (-28%) vs. $8M. (PR)
• VeriSign (VRSN): Q2 EPS of $0.31 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $257M (+6%) vs. $255M. (PR)
• Westar Energy (WR): Q2 EPS of $0.35 in-line. Revenue of $468M (+4%) vs. $501M. (PR)

Today's Markets

Asian markets closed mostly down. European markets and U.S. futures are trending down too.

Think back to July of 2008, oil was over $140/barrel and a lot of talk on “Peak Oil” (the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached) was floating around. By late December a hard hitting recession (depression?) and a strengthening dollar drove prices under $35/barrel. Suddenly there was very little peak oil talk. Today oil is around $60/barrel - and dropping. It is time to again visit peak oil thinking.

Several factors influence oil’s price. The fundamentals, of course, are supply and demand. Wars and rumors of wars, especially in the oil rich Middle East, can drive prices sharply higher in just minutes. Quantitative easing (printing of money), technological advances, Middle East stability, market manipulation, “herd mentality”, all influence oil prices. So, any discussion on peak oil must also consider non-fundamentals.

I've written twice before about ATP (ATPG). With the rapid increase in oil prices I thought it important to update the change in value to ATP's assets and therefore the value per share.

Here is an updated NAV:

I wrote about ATP Oil and Gas (ATPG) previously. I focused on the fact that while they have debt, it appears that they have the means to handle it. I looked at cash flow, debt maturities, covenants and pending asset sales. Please read it if you are interested.

Loans have officially entered the twilight zone. (Click to enlarge)



source: LoanConnector.com

• Final countdown to stress test results. With just hours to go before the Federal Reserve releases its official stress test report, results continue to leak out. At least seven of the nation's biggest banks reportedly need to boost capital by $65B; Bank of America (BAC) likely has the largest hole to plug with a capital shortfall of around $34B, followed by Wells Fargo (WFC) with $13-15B, GMAC (GJM) with $11.5B, Citigroup (C) with $5B and Morgan Stanley (MS) with $1.5B. At least six institutions won't need any capital at all, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), MetLife (MET), American Express (AXP), Bank of New York Mellon (BK) and Capital One Financial (COF). Geithner said the results will give a 'reassuring' picture of the banking system's ability to withstand crisis. Financial shares continue to do well in the run-up to the official release: AXP +2.2%, BAC +5.2%, C +7.8%, GS +0.9%, JPM +1.4%, MS +0.5%, WFC +2.5% (7:00 ET).
• Addressing too-big-to-fail. FDIC's Sheila Bair and Minneapolis Federal Reserve's Gary Stern offered up various solutions for the too-big-to-fail problem in Senate testimony yesterday. Bair wants to see the creation of a systemic-risk council to monitor potentially problematic companies because, as one lawmaker put it, "we cannot afford to replace Citi-sized financial institutions with Citi-sized regulators." Bair also wants the FDIC to be able to wind down bank and thrift holding companies as it now does with failed lenders. Stern suggested stress tests with pre-specified policy requirements, automatic capital protection regimes and insurance premiums on risky activity. (Read Bair's full testimony and Stern's full testimony)
• Senate fights foreclosures. The Senate approved a bill to reduce home foreclosures, including a provision that would shield mortgage service companies from lawsuits if they participate in federal loan modification programs. The bill did not include a controversial mortgage cramdown proposal some Democrats had been advocating. Lawmakers also raised the FDIC's borrowing authority to $100B from $30B, and extended the $250,000 deposit insurance limit through 2013.
• Chrysler update. In the words of Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne, "Chrysler is on track to re-emerge from bankruptcy in 60 days. I will become Chrysler CEO after that." He said the idea has already been discussed with the Treasury.
• GM seeks stake in Fiat. General Motors (GM) is reportedly asking for a 30% stake in Fiat in return for giving the Italian automaker its Latin American and European operations, while Fiat is offering less than 10%. The talks are the latest development in Fiat's sudden bid to grow into a global auto powerhouse, by acquiring GM's Opel, and a 20% stake in Chrysler.
• Murdoch: brighter outlook for News Corp. News Corp. (NWS) reported in-line quarterly earnings yesterday (see details below) and a 47% drop in operating income as advertising revenues declined. The company reaffirmed earlier guidance that FY '09 operating income would fall 30%. However, CEO Rupert Murdoch stressed "it is increasingly clear that the worst is over. There are emerging signs in some of our businesses that the days of precipitous decline are done." Murdoch has no plans to buy additional newspapers, and will initiate cost-cutting at MySpace and Fox Interactive Media.
• SocGen posts loss on writedowns. Societe Generale (SCGLY.PK) reported an unexpected Q1 loss on writedowns connected to U.S. bond insurers and on higher provisions for risky loans. The bank had a net loss of €278M ($370M) vs. analysts' forecasts for a €332M profit, and noted that "acute tensions remain in the financial markets." CEO Frederic Oudea was named chairman, after Daniel Bouton stepped down from the position at the end of April. Shares -3.8% in Paris (7:00 ET).
• New Kindle for students, newsies. As expected, Amazon (AMZN) released a new and larger e-reader designed for textbooks and newspapers. The Kindle DX will cost $489, a mark-up of $130 over earlier versions of the e-reader, and will go on sale this summer.
• GE's health-care push. General Electric (GE) plans to announce a health-care initiative today, unveiling its efforts to improve the 'sustainability of global healthcare systems' in the areas of health technology, independent living, rural health and cost containment. The initiative will likely involve at least $1B of R&D spending. Shares +3.1% premarket (7:00 ET).
• MSFT still open to Yahoo deal. Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer sees room to work with Yahoo (YHOO) to create a 'better search product' and says a tie-up would have been 'valuable.' He declined to comment on whether the two companies are holding formal talks. Premarket: MSFT +1.1%, YHOO +1.0% (7:00 ET).
• House hearing on BoA-Merrill. Bank of America (BAC) CEO Ken Lewis and top federal officials will reportedly be asked to testify in the House of Representatives next month regarding claims that the government pressured Bank of America into completing its Merrill Lynch acquisition.
• Dell may use Android. Dell (DELL) may use Google's (GOOG) Android operating system for future products, according to a press release put out by a small software company. The company's spokeswoman and a Dell representative later said the release was 'issued in error,' but the Dell spokesman confirmed the firm is assessing technology options.
• Weak April for Costco. Costco (COST) said its April same-store sales were 8% lower than a year ago, even worse than the 6.8% drop analysts expected. The decline was led by a 12% drop internationally, and 7% in the U.S. Total sales fell 6% to $5.18B.
• Job cuts decline. Firing announcements fell 12% in April M/M to 132,590, marking the third month in a row of job cuts declines, but are up 47% Y/Y. The report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc noted that "job cuts are still at recession levels, but the fact that they are falling is certainly promising." According to ADP, private sector employment fell by 491,000 in April vs. 708,000 in March (revised from 742K) - much less than the 645,000 decline economists expected. Improvement was widespread across industries and across business sizes, but "this is still a major decline in employment."
• BoE stays put, boosts bond buys. Bank of England kept its key lending rate unchanged at 0.5%, but raised its bond purchase target by £50B to £125B. "The global banking and financial system remains fragile despite further significant intervention by the authorities," the Bank said, noting it expects U.K. inflation to drop below its 2% target later this year. "But surveys at home and abroad show promising signs that the pace of decline has begun to moderate."

Earnings: Thursday Before Open

• AECOM Technology (ACM): FQ2 EPS of $0.40 in-line. Revenue of $1.5B (+28.7%) vs. $1.6B. (PR)
• Ansys (ANSS): Q1 EPS of $0.37 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $121M (+10.9%) vs. $125M. (PR)
• ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG): Q1 EPS of $0.05 beats by $0.40. Revenue of $82M (-63.9%) vs. $92M. (PR)
• BCE (BCE): Q1 EPS of $0.57 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $3.6B (-0.5%) vs. $4.3B. (PR)
• Cameron International (CAM): Q1 EPS of $0.59 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.3B (-6.1%) vs. $1.4B. (PR)
• CapitalSource (CSE): Q1 EPS of -$0.36 misses by $0.11. (PR)
• Continental Resources (CLR): Q1 EPS of -$0.03 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $97M (-57.6%) vs. $112M. (PR)
• Corrections Corp. of America (CXW): Q1 EPS of $0.29 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $404M (+6.5%) vs. $403M. (PR)
• Dynegy (DYN): Q1 EPS of -$0.40 misses by $0.36. Revenue of $904M (+66.5%) vs. $683M. (PR)
• Frontier Communications (FTR): Q1 EPS of $0.12 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $538M (-5.5%) vs. $547M. (PR)
• General Motors (GM): Q1 EPS of -$9.66 beats by $1.39. Revenue of $22.43B (-47.1%) vs. consensus of $20.19B. Excluding special items, adjusted net loss was $5.9B. Cash fell to $11.6B from $14.2B. Shares +4.8% premarket (7:20 ET). (PR)
• Holly (HOC): Q1 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $651M (-56%) vs. $590M. (PR)
• HRPT Properties Trust (HRP): Q1 EPS of $0.28 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $217M (+7.8%) vs. $216M. (PR)
• Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR): Q1 EPS of -$0.23 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $247M (-12.6%) vs. $244M. (PR)
• Lexington Realty Trust (LXP): Q1 EPS of $0.38 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $101M (-4.5%) vs. $99M. (PR)
• Linn Energy LLC (LINE): Q1 EPS of $0.48 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $204M (+19.2%) vs. $171M. (PR)
• MetroPCS Communications (PCS): Q1 EPS of $0.12 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $795M (+20.1%) vs. $818M. (PR)
• Nasdaq (NDAQ): Q1 EPS of $0.48 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $369M (-11.9%) vs. $379M. (PR)
• Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI): Q1 FFO of $0.37 in-line. Revenue of $49M (+20.3%) vs. $42M. Reaffirms FY '09 FFO of $1.47-$1.50. (PR)
• Perrigo Company (PRGO): FQ3 EPS of $0.50 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $506M (+5.3%) vs. $527M. Issues upside EPS guidance for FY '09 of $1.80-1.90, vs. previous guidance of $1.75-1.90. Shares +4.3% premarket (8:00 ET). (PR)
• Plains Exploration & Production Company (PXP): Q1 EPS of $1.23 beats by $0.96. Revenue of $228.5M (-63.3%) vs. $302.7M. (PR)
• Teradata Corporation (TDC): Q1 EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $367M (-2.1%) vs. $345M. (PR)

Earnings: Wednesday After Close

• Anadarko Petroleum (APC): Q1 EPS of -$0.53 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $1.6B (-46.4%) vs. $1.7B. Shares +0.85% AH. (PR)
• Atwood Oceanics (ATW): FQ2 EPS of $0.88 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $141M (+24%) vs. $139M. Shares +4.4% AH. (PR)
• Avis Budget Group (CAR): Q1 EPS of -$0.44 beats by $0.19. Revenue of $1.19B (-17.4%) vs. $1.25B. Shares -5.75% AH. (PR)
• Brookdale Senior Living (BKD): Q1 EPS of -$0.13 beats by $0.20. Revenue of $498M (+3.6%) vs. $495M. (PR)
• Churchill Downs (CHDN): Q1 EPS of -$0.37 beats by $0.21. Revenue of $73.7M (+12.2%) vs. $67.6M. (PR)
• Cisco Systems (CSCO): FQ3 EPS of $0.30 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $8.2B vs. $8.07B. CEO John Chambers' comments on the earnings call will be critical, as always. Shares +2.5% AH. (PR)
• Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE): Q1 EPS of $0.37 in-line. Revenue of $56M (+52.6%) vs. $54.4M. Utilization rate 99.6%. Shares -4.5% AH. (PR)
• Embarq (EQ): Q1 EPS of $1.39 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $1.35B (-7.6%) in-line. (PR)
• Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT): Q1 FFO of $0.99 in-line. Revenue of $131M (+3.8%) vs. $130M. Shares flat AH. (PR)
• Global Industries (GLBL): Q1 EPS of $0.17 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $269.5M (-10.6%) vs. $264M. Shares +2.6% AH. (PR)
• Goodrich Petroleum (GDP): Q1 EPS of -$0.05 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $28.5M (-38.6%) vs. $21M. Shares -1.8% AH. (PR)
• Home Properties (HME): Q1 FFO of $0.79 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $129M vs. $122M. Shares flat AH. (PR)
• ION Geophysical (IO): Q1 EPS of -$0.10 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $107M (-23.8%) vs. $133M. Shares -9.5% AH. (PR)
• Limelight Networks (LLNW): Q1 EPS of -$0.02 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $33.2M (+9.9%) vs. $32.7M. Shares -0.4% AH. (PR)
• Macrovision (MVSN): Q1 EPS of $0.31 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $111.2M (+7.2%) vs. $106.7M. Narrows full-year guidance essentially in-line with previous range. Shares +4.7% AH. (PR)
• Murphy Oil (MUR): Q1 EPS of $0.37 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $3.45B (-47.1%) vs. $4.09B. Sees Q2 EPS in-line. Shares flat AH. (PR)
• News Corp. (NWS): FQ3 EPS of $0.16 in-line. Revenue of $7.4B vs. $7.71B. Says results "directly reflect the continuing weakness of the global economic climate." Shares +3.3% AH. (PR)
• ON Semiconductor (ONNN): Q1 EPS of $0.03 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $379M vs. $362M. "Due to the slowdown in the macro economy, along with the reduction of inventory levels throughout the supply chain, we believe the semiconductor industry and ON Semiconductor shipped fewer products than the end-market consumed." Shares +8.9% AH. (PR)
• Penn Virginia (PVA): Q1 EPS of $0.06 in-line. Revenue of $199M (-20.1%) vs. $221M. Shares +0.3% AH. (PR)
• Prudential Financial (PRU): Q1 EPS of $1.05 beats by $0.22. Revenue of $1M vs. $1M. Shares +4% AH. (PR)
• Regency Centers (REG): Q1 FFO of $0.78 beats by $0.01. Cuts quarterly dividend by 36% to $0.46. Shares flat AH. (PR)
• Symantec (SYMC): FQ4 EPS of $0.38 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $1.49B (+1.49%) in-line. Sees FQ1 EPS and revenue in-line. Shares -0.8% AH. (PR)
• Sunoco (SUN): Q1 EPS of $0.50 beats by $0.16. Revenue of $6.44B. "We continue to expect a challenging market for petroleum and chemical products due to ongoing economic weakness and additional global supply." Expects 2009 capex to be $200M lower than planned. Shares +0.5% AH. (PR)
• Tenaris (TS): Q1 EPS of $0.62 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $2.45B (-6.7%) vs. $2.5B. Shares -1% AH. (PR)
• Tesoro (TSO): Q1 EPS of $0.37 in-line. Revenue of $3.28B (-50.3%) in-line. Shares -2.5% AH. (PR)
• The Andersons (ANDE): Q1 EPS of $0.27 beats by $0.33. Revenue of $697M (-2.2%) vs. $579M. Shares +14.2% AH. (PR)
• THQ (THQI): FQ4 EPS of -$0.54 misses by $0.20. Revenue of $170M vs. $149M. Expects year-end cash balance at least $50M higher next year. Secures $35M credit line with BofA (BAC). Shares -0.3% AH. (PR)
• USEC (USU): Q1 EPS of $0.02 misses by $0.07. Shares -5.1% AH. (PR)

Today's Markets

Another day of solid gains for overseas markets. Tokyo, open for the first time this week, led the way.

Stocks that have dropped significantly in price and are trading at all time lows provide investors attractive entry points, but some of those stocks could be deceptively “cheap”. Being able to discriminate between the two is a valuable skill for every portfolio manager and stock picker.

In order to identify a good investment opportunity, AFG starts with assessing corporate performance by evaluating the ability of firms to generate Economic Margins above their sector median. Companies with expected improvement in their EMs tend to outperform companies with deteriorating EMs. In addition to corporate performance, AFG evaluates the valuation attractiveness and embedded expectations priced into the market through the Value Expectations interface.

Well, it's been quite a ride hasn't it?

The markets have experienced if not the worst top to bottom collapse ever, almost certainly the second worst.

Q4 2008 Earnings Call

March 2, 2009 4:00 pm ET

With the US equity market averages either probing or breaking down through their November lows, is it time to buy Phoenix stocks? Others have picked up on that theme, with the latest being a Minyanville article on buying beaten up stocks.

With that in mind, I screened the US market for stocks with the following characteristics:

At the end of each week, our market direction radar scans the Hillbent 3000 universe (minimum average daily volume of 100k and largest 3000 market capitalization stocks) for the top 3 and bottom 3 sectors based upon aggregate performance and analyzes their winners and losers.

Using this weekly sector report on a regular basis allows Hillbent.com’s readers to efficiently monitor sector rotations and investor sentiment biases.

Dr. Strangelove himself couldn’t have contrived a more diabolical plot than my tango with ATP Oil and Gas (ATPG).

Way back in September (was it that long ago?) I ran across an article touting ATPG as a potential 200% gainer. I have always been partial to oil and gas companies — good liquid assets you know. So, I took a gamble, buying shares at 22. However, I was foolish enough to not use a stop-loss. By October 10, my ATPG was down 40%.

West Coast Asset Management posed the following idea at the Value Investing Congress in October:

What is ATP Natural Gas (ATPG):
ATP Oil & Gas Corporation is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of oil and natural gas properties in the Gulf of Mexico and the United Kingdom and Dutch Sectors of the North Sea. On December 31, 2007, the Company owned leasehold and other interests in 76 offshore blocks, 40 platforms and 127 wells, including 19 subsea wells, in the Gulf of Mexico. It operates 109 (86%) of these wells, including all of the subsea wells, and 78% of offshore platforms.

Phil Davis attended this week's Value Investing Congress on behalf of Seeking Alpha. Here are Phil's notes from the conference.

I was, ironically, at the Value Investing Congress Tuesday where some of the best hedge fund managers in the world, such Bill Ackman, Jeffrey Schwarz and, Leon Cooperman, to name a few share with about 1,500 investors their thoughts on the market as well as giving us overviews of their portfolios. The investors I spoke to at the conference were definitely "shopping" as most of them see a great opportunity to deploy cash in the market, but I wondered how much of that was reflected by the fact that they had been sitting at a conference with a lot of rich people for two days and not watching the markets, like I had been until 11am.