Mon, Feb. 9, 7:21 AM
- A state senate bill floating around in Nevada proposes to allow more games of skill than chance on the floors of casinos in the state.
- A passage of the bill could set off a flood of new casino games based off of popular videogames.
- Videogames at casinos are seen as a way to draw in more of the 75M millennials who as a group have shied away from slot machines and games of blind luck.
- The potential also exists to introduce gambling through apps for games in Nevada and create cash tournaments online.
- Related stocks: LVS ,CZR, BYD, MGM, WYNN, SGMS, ATVI, TTWO, EA.
Fri, Feb. 6, 12:27 PM
- Off sharply yesterday after posting mixed Q4 results and offering soft Q1/2015 guidance, Activision (ATVI +1.4%) has erased its losses and then some today.
- Sell-side defenses of the game giant are helping its cause. Wedbush's Michael Pachter: "The company has historically been exceedingly conservative with its guidance, and over the last ten years, has consistently beaten the expectations it sets early in the year ... this year is no different."
- Pachter notes the guidance assumes no contribution from StarCraft II: Legacy of the Void or a still-unnamed title from Activision Publishing, only small contributions from Call of Duty Online and Heroes of the Storm, and flat Call of Duty and Skylanders revenue. He thinks there could be as much as $750M in upside to full-year guidance.
- Brean's Todd Mitchell observes forex and a higher tax rate contributed to the guidance. "While Activision is known for its conservative guidance, it seems exaggerated for 2015 in light of the potential for strong sell through of its major franchises, the positive feedback loop of scale for [downloadable content] including an alluded "mega" digital content offering for Destiny, and strong prospects for Blizzard's free-to-play title."
- In addition, Mitchell expects "the PS4/Xbox One console base to continue to outpace the prior-gen cycle throughout 2015, accelerating consumer preferences towards digital transactions and further consolidating the industry around blockbuster AAA franchises, a segment which Activision now dominates."
- On the CC (transcript), Activision Publishing chief Eric Hirshberg disclosed Destiny "now has over 16 million registered users with a massive audience of active players still averaging over 3 hours of game play per day." Blizzard chief Michael Morhaime mentioned Hearthstone now has over 25M registered users.
Fri, Feb. 6, 9:12 AM
Thu, Feb. 5, 6:34 PM
- Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) expects Q1 revenue of $640M and EPS of $0.05, well below a consensus of $777.7M and $0.18. Full-year guidance (harder to project for a game developer) is for revenue of $4.4B and EPS of $1.15, below a consensus of $4.71B and $1.15.
- The board has authorized a new $750M buyback program. It lasts through Feb. 2017, and is good for repurchasing 5% of shares at current levels. Activision also plans to pay off a $250M term loan; the company had $4.3B in debt at the end of Q4, and $4.8B in cash.
- Thanks to the launch of the Warlords of Draenor expansion pack, the World of Warcraft subscriber base was above 10M at the end of 2014, up from 7.4M at the end of Q3.
- The expansion pack drove a 98% Y/Y increase in online revenue to $398M. However, console revenue fell 15% to $1.22B, thanks to a 48% drop in prior-gen console revenue to $599M; next-gen console revenue more than doubled to $630M. PC game revenue rose 14% to $127M; mobile/other revenue fell 18% to $269M; and distribution revenue rose 6% to $190M.
- 31% and 46% of Q4 and full-year revenue respectively came from digital channels, up from 16% and 36% a year earlier. Q4 GAAP R&D spend fell 7% to $184M, and sales/marketing 3% to $247M.
- Shares have fallen to $20.05 AH.
- Q4 results, PR
Thu, Feb. 5, 4:22 PM
Wed, Feb. 4, 5:35 PM
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Fri, Jan. 16, 10:35 AM
- Activision's (ATVI +6.3%) Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare topped NPD's U.S. physical retail game sale rankings for the second month in a row in December. Destiny, which Activision hopes will be its third $1B+ franchise, was #9.
- In a PR, Activision says Advanced Warfare was the "top-selling console game of 2014 globally," and that Destiny was the #2 2014 U.S. console game in terms of revenue. Skylanders was the top kids video game franchise globally (inc. toys/accessories sales), with a 30% sales edge over its biggest rival (presumably Disney's Infinity).
- Electronic Arts' (EA - unchanged) Madden NFL 2015 rose a spot to #3, and FIFA 15 returned to the top-10 (at #10). Take-Two's (TTWO +1.8%) Grand Theft Auto V was at #2 for another month, continuing to get a lift from its next-gen console and PC launches. NBA 2K15 rose three spots to #5.
- NPD estimates total U.S. physical retail game sales fell 2% Y/Y to $1.25B. Hardware sales, facing tougher comps (given next-gen consoles launched in Nov. 2013), fell 4% to $1.31B, with the Xbox One outselling the PS4. Next-gen consoles are performing 65% better than prior-gen consoles had over their first 14 months. GameStop (GME +3%), just three days removed from reporting better-than-expected holiday sales, is reacting favorably to the numbers.
- Superdata Research estimates U.S. digital game spend rose 11% Y/Y in December to $1.2B. Mobile game sales (35% of 2014 sales) rose 17%, and digital console game sales (8% of 2014 sales) 10%.
- EA reports on Jan. 27, Take-Two on Feb. 3, and Activision on Feb. 5.
- Previously: NPD's November data
- Update (2:15PM): EA is now up 1.8%, aided by a 0.8% increase for the Nasdaq. Activision is now up 9.2%, Take-Two 4.2%, and GameStop 4.5%.
Fri, Jan. 16, 9:11 AM
Wed, Jan. 7, 8:08 AM
Dec. 12, 2014, 10:39 AM
- Though Activision's (ATVI -1.5%) Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare was (as expected) #1 in NPD's November U.S. physical retail game sale rankings, Call of Duty franchise sales were down 27% Y/Y and Activision's total sales down 22%.
- That has led Piper to slash its Activision target by $3 to $24. "Strength in the Blizzard side of the business (WoW & HearthStone) should allow for an in-line Q4, but we are slightly lowering our estimates to now be in-line with company guidance."
- Take-Two (TTWO +3.3%), meanwhile, has rallied towards its 52-week high after Grand Theft Auto V (recently become available on the Xbox One, PS4, and PCs) ranked #2. NBA 2K15 was #8, down one spot from October. Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel fell out of the top-10.
- Electronic Arts' (EA +0.5%) Madden NFL 15 rose four spots to #4, but FIFA 15 fell out of the top-10. BofA/Merrill has hiked its targets (I, II) for both EA and Take-Two following NPD's numbers: It's optimistic EA can continue growing margins thanks to growing digital sales and cost controls, and argues Take-Two deserves a multiple similar to EA and Activision's.
- NPD estimates total U.S. physical game sales fell 2% Y/Y in November to $1.09B, a much smaller drop than October's 27%. With next-gen consoles having launched a year ago, hardware sales fell an estimated 23% to $1.01B, with the Xbox One (1.2M sales) outselling the PS4 following a $50 early-November price cut.
- Wedbush's Michael Pachter thinks game sales growth may have been positive after accounting for downloads and the frequent bundling of games with consoles. Meanwhile, Superdata Research estimates total digital game spend rose 23% Y/Y during the Thanksgiving period.
Nov. 20, 2014, 12:06 PM
- After announcing yesterday afternoon World of Warcraft: Warlords of Draenor had sold 3.3M+ copies following 24 hours of availability, Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) announced today Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (launched on Nov. 3) "is the biggest entertainment launch of the year, besting not only all other video games, but also the biggest movies, music and books launched in 2014."
- Activision adds Advanced Warfare is " the highest-selling digital launch in console history according to Xbox Live, PlayStation Network and internal Activision estimates," and that users played an estimated 370M+ online matches in the week following the game's release.
- Also: Activision says the company has settled a class-action suit related to last year's leveraged recap deal with Vivendi. "Various defendants" and insurance companies will pay $275M.
- Piper (Overweight) thinks the Warcraft and Call of Duty announcements suggest upside to Q4 estimates.
Nov. 19, 2014, 5:53 PM
- Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) reports over 3.3M copies of World of Warcraft: Warlords of Draenor were sold following the first 24 hours of availability following yesterday's launch. As a result, the WoW subscriber base, which stood at 7.4M at the end of Q3, is back above 10M.
- Draenor, the fifth expansion for WoW, is sold through a $50 standard edition and a $70 deluxe edition. It launched yesterday in North America and Europe (among other places), and is launching today in China and Korea. NetEase (NASDAQ:NTES) remains Activision's Chinese WoW partner.
- While reviews have mostly been positive, initial Draenor users have complained about overtaxed servers. Activision/Blizzard is giving them five days of free subscription time to make up for it.
- ATVI +1.2% AH.
Nov. 14, 2014, 5:35 PM
- After coming in at #1 in NPD's September U.S. retail video game rankings (following a blockbuster Sep. 9 launch), Activision's (NASDAQ:ATVI) Destiny fell to #5 in October. Take-Two's (NASDAQ:TTWO) NBA 2K15, which launched on Oct. 7, took its place at the top.
- Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel, launched by Take-Two on Oct. 14, was #4. Skylanders Trap Team, which Activision released on Oct. 2, was #6.
- Electronic Arts' (NASDAQ:EA) FIFA 15 and Madden NFL 15 were #7 and #8, down from #3 and #2 in September. The Sims 4 fell out of the top-10, as did Activision's Diablo III: Reaper of Souls.
- Altogether, NPD estimates U.S. physical retail game sales fell 27% Y/Y to $350.3M. They were down 36% in September, thanks in part to tough comps caused by last year's GTA V launch. Xbox One/PS4 demand led console sales to rise 59% to $273.6M; Microsoft cut One prices by $50 early in November.
- The digital transition continues: SuperData Research estimates U.S. digital game spending rose 12% Y/Y in October to $957M.
- Activision's Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare launched on Nov. 3, and should be at or near the top of NPD's November rankings. Metacritic gives the game a score of 77/100.
- ATVI -1.2% in regular trading. TTWO +2.5%. EA +0.1%.
Nov. 11, 2014, 6:59 AM
Nov. 5, 2014, 9:16 AM
- Gainers: CRTO +19%. JIVE +17%. YOD +16%. TTPH +12%. IBIO +11%. AEZS +9%. EXEL +8%. CLNY +7%. ANR +7%. ROYT +7%. EOG +6%. PHMD +6%. NICE +6%. VPCO +6%. ATVI +5%. VG +5%. CTSH +5%. WLT +5%. MACK +5%.
- Losers: CHUY -24%. NUS -22%. FEYE -16%. ZU -14%. TRIP -13%. SSYS -8%. MEMP -7%. NG -6%. ANV -6%. ARIA -6%. AWAY -6%.
Nov. 4, 2014, 4:42 PM
- Though it beat Q3 estimates, Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) is guiding for Q4 revenue of $2.2B and EPS of $0.86, below a consensus of $2.34B and $0.94.
- The World of Warcraft sub base rose by 600K Q/Q in Q3 to 7.4M, a reversal from Q2's 800K decline. Hearthstone registered users have topped 20M, and Destiny registered users 9.5M.
- 43% of revenue came from digital channels, 50% from retail channels, and 7% from distribution.
- 40% of revenue came from next-gen consoles, 24% of older consoles, 18% from online gaming/content, 8% from PC games, 7% from distribution, and 3% from mobile games and other sources. Online revenue rose 15% Y/Y to $209M; mobile/other revenue fell 36% to $35M.
- GAAP costs/expenses rose 20% Y/Y to $745M, thanks in part to a 53% increase in sales/marketing spend to $221M.
- Q3 results, PR
ATVI vs. ETF Alternatives
Activision Blizzard Inc is an online, personal computer, video game console, tablet, handheld, and mobile game publisher. It has three operating segments: - Activision Publishing, Inc., Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. and Activision Blizzard Distribution.
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