Mon, Jan. 12, 12:48 PM
- Goldman Sachs lowers target prices for several offshore drillers as it cuts its crude oil price outlook, although it still rates Atwood Oceanics (ATW -3.3%) a Buy.
- The firm expects offshore driller stocks to struggle with a supply/demand imbalance driven by the 62 newbuild floaters and 113 jackups coming to the market through 2016 (24% and 28%, respectively, of the working rig count), on top of weak demand, and sees demand curtailed as projects are delayed, resulting in declining utilization for offshore rigs and lower earnings for the majority of offshore drillers as rigs rolling off contracts could struggle to find contracts.
- ATW is Goldman's lone Buy-rated name due to high contract coverage, a young rig fleet and favorable valuation; Sell-rated Transocean (RIG -4.6%) and Diamond Offshore (DO -4.9%) have high rig availability, exposure to aging assets, potential for asset writedowns, and risks to their current dividend payments.
Dec. 23, 2014, 6:55 PM
- Goldman Sachs' David Kostin thinks it’s time for patient investors with at least a 12-month time horizon to begin loading up on energy companies.
- The Goldman team recommends refiners such as Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) and Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX), as well as midstream companies that are less sensitive to oil prices and offer the potential for dividend growth, including EQT Midstream Partners (NYSE:EQM), Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) and Cheniere Energy (NYSEMKT:LNG).
- With capital spending sure to take a hit and oil prices likely to remain volatile, oil service companies probably aren’t the way to go, but Goldman considers the more defensive names such as Atwood Oceanics (NYSE:ATW), Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) and Oceaneering (NYSE:OII) as the best of a bad lot.
Dec. 23, 2014, 6:19 PM
- Although the energy sector led today's stock advance, a raft of companies downgraded by Global Hunter mostly took it on the chin - none more so than Key Energy (NYSE:KEG), which plunged 15% after shares were cut to Reduce from Neutral with a $1.50 price target that was reduced from $2.50.
- Also downgraded to Reduce were HERO -6.1%, NBR -3.2%, DO +1.3%.
- Lowered to Neutral were HAL +0.5%, GEOS -8.9%, HP -2.9%, BAS -2.5%, PKD -2.5%, BHI +0.6%, BBEP -0.2%, MEP +0.1%.
- Downgraded to Accumulate: PES -3.5%, PTEN -1.1%, NGLS +2.9%.
- The firm upgraded five stocks - ATW, NOV, OII, RES and SPN - all of which gained in today's trading.
Dec. 19, 2014, 5:25 PM
- Transocean (NYSE:RIG) shares finished sharply higher today (+7.9%), but it’s hard to ignore the largely negative December fleet status report that came out late yesterday.
- In lowering his stock price target to $17 from $20, Cowen analyst J.B. Lowe said RIG secured one attractive contract this month, not enough to fill much needed ultra-deepwater floater availability; while RIG was able to put two idle floaters back to work, it had four additional rigs go idle, including one where the customer canceled the contract.
- Lowe believes falling oil prices will put increased strain on dayrates and utilization during 2015.
- Most offshore drilling service contractors racked up strong gains today as crude oil prices rebounded: NE +9.5%, ESV +9.5%, RDC +5.9%, DO +0.5%, ATW +7.1%, PACD +14%.
Dec. 19, 2014, 11:44 AM
- Transocean (RIG +4.6%) discloses that it plans to scrap seven of its older, lower-quality deepwater and midwater vessels, and adds that it may not be finished getting rid of parts of its fleet, even as oil prices and demand for offshore rigs have fallen.
- RIG says it expects to take a related $100M-$140M charge in Q4.
- RIG's decision to put the rigs up for sale comes after a string of vessel retirements and a $2.76B writedown of the company’s asset value in November.
- Most offshore drilling service contractors are higher: ESV +5.1%, RDC +1.7%, DO +0.8%, ATW +3.1%, PACD +8.4%, but SDRL -4.3%.
Dec. 3, 2014, 2:53 PM
- Offshore drillers are rising modestly today after suffering a beating this year, but Jefferies cautions against seeing a buying opportunity in the beleaguered group.
- The firm says neither fundamentals nor valuation paint a compelling enough picture of the group; "more importantly, current softness masks the evolution of deepwater drilling to where specifications matter."
- Transocean (RIG +1.6%), which Jefferies says has the biggest contracting challenges both near-term and in the longer-run given a disproportionate mix of older UDW/UK floaters, is the least favorite name, while the firm sees relative value in Atwood Oceanics (ATW +0.7%) and Rowan (RDC +1.2%).
- Among other offshore drillers: DO +3.1%, PACD +3.1%, ESV +1%, NE -0.7%, SDRL -0.7%.
Dec. 1, 2014, 3:19 PM
- A bit late, Guggenheim analyst Darren Gacicia downgrades Seadrill (SDRL -5.5%), Transocean (RIG -4.5%) and Diamond Offshore (DO +3.3%) to Neutral from Buy, finally admitting that downward pressure on oil prices and a potential for capital markets to become shy to fund newbuild deliveries has undercut the tenets of his previous bull thesis.
- SDRL and RIG remain the most levered to deteriorating offshore market conditions, he says, believing SDRL shares may also suffer from an ownership transition from income to value investors and RIG perhaps sharing the same fate, with a 2015 dividend cut likely amid the potential for further asset writedowns.
- At DO, Gacicia sees risk of a dividend cut, rig retirements and deteriorating offshore market fundamentals as negative near-term catalysts; the firm also downgrades Seventy Seven Energy (SSE -16.2%), Cameron (CAM -2.8%), Frank's International (FI -0.1%) and FMC Tech (FTI -0.1%).
- In the space, the analyst prefers drillers with high-quality assets, solid contract coverage and a lack of funding needs, such as Noble Corp. (NE -0.2%) - which also has a buyback catalyst - Atwood Oceanics (ATW -0.1%) and Pacific Drilling (PACD -3.7%).
Nov. 28, 2014, 9:45 AM
- The sector was wrecked on Wednesday as Seadrill suspended its dividend amid "significant deterioration" in the oil market, and its North Atlantic Drilling suspended its payout because of the same combined with the delay in its Rosneft deal.
- The market "deteriorates" even further today with OPEC's decision yesterday not to cut production. WTI crude is "off the lows" as they say, but still down 5.8% at $69.43 per barrel.
- Seadrill (SDLP), North Atlantic Drilling (NADL -8.3%), ENSCO (ESV -8.8%), Atwood (ATW -7.7%), Rowan (RDC -7.2%), Pacific Drilling (PACD -4.5%).
Nov. 26, 2014, 5:37 PM
Nov. 26, 2014, 10:42 AM
- Seadrill (SDRL -19.2%) shares are plunging after the drilling contractor suspended dividend payments due to "significant deterioration" in the broader markets, and North Atlantic Drilling (NADL -13.8%) suspends its dividend because of the delay of its agreement with Rosneft as well as the weaker market.
- The move is slamming the entire sector, and Wells Fargo says that although SDRL is the first driller to cut its dividend, Diamond Offshore (DO -8.3%) and Transocean (RIG -4.7%) will "ultimately have to follow suit."
- Also: SDLP -6.6%, ESV -4.8%, ATW -4.3%, RDC -3.3%, NE -3.2%, PACD -6.5%, ORIG -2.7%, HP -1.1%, RIGP -2.5%.
- ETF: OIH
Nov. 17, 2014, 3:59 PM
- In the wake of Halliburton's (NYSE:HAL) $34.6B offer for Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI), it appears the next hot sector for M&A action is energy: More consolidation is likely, given the weakness for stocks in the oilfield services subsector, low interest rates, and as a drop in demand for oil increases cutthroat pricing competition.
- Speculation is running rampant as investors try to figure out who is next in an industry that is sure to undergo some more consolidation; some names identified as possible candidates include Kodiak Oil and Gas (NYSE:KOG), Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO), Northern Oil and Gas (NYSEMKT:NOG), Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD).
- GE could go after National Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) to show it is serious about the energy industry after last year’s purchase of pumpmaker Lufkin, Royal Bank of Canada says, and Oppenheimer says even BP could be an acquisition candidate.
- But Morgan Stanley does not see offshore drillers getting in on the action, as larger players like Diamond Offshore (NYSE:DO), Transocean (NYSE:RIG) and Seadrill (NYSE:SDRL) are still addressing dividend concerns while smaller companies such as Atwood Oceanics (NYSE:ATW) and Pacific Drilling (NYSE:PACD) still trade close to replacement value.
Nov. 10, 2014, 6:04 PM
Nov. 9, 2014, 5:35 PM
Nov. 5, 2014, 3:31 PM
- Rowan (RDC +4.4%) leads offshore drillers higher after easily beating Q3 earnings estimates and forecasting revenues to rise in 2015 despite its own predictions for a soft rig market next year; it certainly doesn't hurt that oil prices are higher today.
- FBR Capital says it likes RDC as both a near-term idea on a sentiment snap-back and as a longer-term investment opportunity for patient investors; the firm believes the risk in RDC is mitigated by the company's fully locked-up ultra-deepwater newbuild fleet, whose contract starts account for the entirety of net earnings growth it foresees from 2014 to 2016, as well as concentrated exposure to high-spec jackups, which make up 93% of 2015 jackup earnings and should see fundamentals hold up better than the other classes.
- Also: RIG +5.2%, SDRL +4.5%, ESV +3.6%, DO +5.7%, NE +5.4%, ATW +2%.
Nov. 4, 2014, 1:45 PM
- November is just two days old, but offshore drillers Transocean (RIG -4.7%), Seadrill (SDRL -7.2%), Diamond Offshore (DO -3.6%), Atwood Oceanics (ATW -2.6%) and Noble Corp. (NE -5.2%) are down more than 8% so far this month.
- The Zephirin Group thinks plunging oil prices are already beginning to impact demand for offshore drilling platforms, and the current dayrate range for ultra-deepwater drillships of mid $400-500/day is not helping the outlook.
- The latest piece of evidence of the weakness is ATW's six-month postponement of the delivery of two drillships under construction, which Zephirin expects will cost the company an additional $40M-$45M per rig.
- The firm also foresees a high possibility that the 2015-16 market and contract renewals rates could shift below expectations when energy companies start announcing 2015 capex budgets late this year.
Nov. 3, 2014, 2:58 PM
- Offshore drillers are broadly lower after Atwood Oceanics (ATW -5.2%) discloses in its latest fleet status report that it is delaying two deliveries in its fleet, and Diamond Offshore (DO -4.7%) is downgraded to Strong Sell from Sell at Nordea.
- The damage is minimal at Ensco (ESV -0.9%), however, as Johnson Rice analysts offer positive commentary on the "top-tier producer" after ESV's Q3 results displayed impressive operational execution while management made several positive moves during the quarter to improve the company’s financial flexibility.
- While management continues to expect further floater utilization and dayrate challenges through 2015, the jackup market was described as a potential near-term offset to floater headwinds as ESV cited record backlog within the jackup fleet and expected incremental Middle East jackup demand in H1 2015.
- Also: Caledonia deal not likely to held Transocean (RIG -2.8%) shareholders, analyst says.
- Also: RDC -2.8%, SDRL -3.1%, NE -1.1%, PACD -2.4%.
ATW vs. ETF Alternatives
Other News & PR