Nov. 18, 2014, 3:59 PM
- Gold prices jumped 1.2% to settle just shy of $1,200/oz. as the dollar eased against major currencies amid tensions in eastern Europe and the Middle East, and some observers are starting to ask if gold mining and production stocks (GDX +4.8%) have finally found a bottom.
- 24/7's Chris Lange thinks gold giants may have hit their lows on Nov. 5, followed by an impressive recovery since that date with gold fundamentals apparently not changing drastically.
- Major precious metals miners are strong across the board: ABX +6.5%, AEM +4.4%, AU +6.2%, GG +3.7%, GFI +7.6%, SLW +3.6%, NEM +3.4%, AGI +4.9%, IAG +6.6%, AUY +6.8%, KGC +9.2%, NGD +2.8%, GOLD +1.9%, RGLD +3.7%.
- Other ETFs: GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, JNUG, GLDX, JDST, SLVP, SILJ, RING, SGDM, PSAU
Nov. 10, 2014, 6:46 PM
- With gold trading down as low as $1,131/oz., precious metals miners were hit hard again today, with the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) tumbling 6.3% and now 17% lower YTD.
- Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX), which fell 6.7% today, was the subject of negative comments from Deutsche Bank, which said, “Management’s target net debt of $7B, conveyed on its 3Q14 earnings conference call, is a tall order without a combination of a higher gold price and asset sales.”
- Mining companies at least can look forward to the modest consolation prize of weaker local currencies and falling oil prices that will help trim their costs; for example, Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM) estimates local currency declines could reduce its U.S. dollar-denominated cash production costs by 5%-6%.
- Also today: AU -9.8%, GG -4.8%, GFI -4.6%, SLW -4.7%, NEM -5.9%, AGI -6.8%, IAG -6.1%, AUY -6.6%, KGC -6.4%, NGD -7.2%, GOLD -5.1%, RGLD -5.3%.
- Other ETFs: GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, JNUG, GLDX, JDST, SLVP, SILJ, RING, SGDM, PSAU
Nov. 3, 2014, 2:35 PM
- Just days after shares plunged to 52-week lows on falling gold prices, AngloGold Ashanti (AU +21.7%) is soaring today after its Q3 results included lower than expected costs and improving its production outlook to the top end of previous guidance.
- AU tightened its FY 2014 production outlook to 4.35M-4.45M oz,, closer to the top end of initial of guidance 4.2M-4.5M oz., despite the sale of the Navachab mine in Namibia in May, losses caused by the earthquake in South Africa, and the transition of the Obuasi Mine to limited operating state by year-end.
- Total cash costs rose a less than expected 1% to $820/oz., while all-in sustaining costs fell 10% Y/Y to $1,036/oz.
- Q3 production increased 8% Y/Y to 1.128M oz,, beating guidance.
- Forecast capex, initially set at $1.35B-$1.45B, is lowered to $1.25B-$1.35B, due mostly to savings at the Obuasi mine; the forecast for all-in sustaining costs remains at $1,025/oz.-$1,075/oz.
- Deutsche Bank upgraded shares to Buy from Hold.
Nov. 3, 2014, 12:49 PM
Nov. 3, 2014, 9:13 AM
Nov. 3, 2014, 4:45 AM
- AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) swung to net income of $41M in Q3 after making a loss of $80M in Q2.
- However, headline profit dropped to $2M from $576M a year earlier, which reflected a $567M realized fair value gain on a three-year convertible bond.
- Production rose 8% on year to 1,128M ounces of gold.
- In Q3, earnings were hurt by high inflation, tax charges and low gold prices, which CEO Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan said are the "biggest challenge" to the industry.
- "Our job here is to keep effectively running down an escalator that’s going up," Venkatakrishnan said. (PR)
Oct. 31, 2014, 11:35 AM
- Precious metals miners are slammed for a third straight session as gold prices plunged to multiyear lows.
- Japan’s surprise stimulus move is supporting the U.S. dollar and driving the ICE U.S. Dollar index to a four-year high, making gold more expensive to overseas buyers; while the prospect for more monetary stimulus usually increases the lure of gold, the threat of global deflation has withered gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices, Barron's Chris Dieterich explains.
- Nearly everyone in the sector is hitting 52-week lows (again): ABX -4.5%, NEM -7.7%, GG -0.5%, SLW -3.6%, AGI -5.8%, AEM -4.1%, AUY -10.6%, IAG -4.6%, KGC -16.2%, NGD -6.1%, AU -2%, GOLD -1.6%.
- Also: GFI -7.4%, RGLD -3.8%.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, JNUG, GLDX, JDST, SLVP, RING, SGDM, PSAU
Oct. 29, 2014, 7:40 PM
- Precious metals miners and the ETFs that track them were slammed today as the Fed moved to end its bond purchase program.
- Today’s 4.3% swoon in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) drives the price below $20 for the first time since Oct. 2008, and the Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:SIL) tumbled 3.5% to its lowest finish since its launch in April 2010.
- The Fed action was expected, but paired with a more upbeat assessment of the U.S. labor market, gold’s appeal is further dampened vs. income generating assets, Barron's Chris Dieterich writes.
- Among individual names today: ABX -5.1%, NEM -4.7%, GG -4.1%, GFI -3.2%, SLW -3.3%, AGI -3.4%, AEM -4.7%, AUY -4.1%, IAG -4.6%, KGC -2.9%, NGD -4.3%, AU -3.3%, RGLD -4.8%, GOLD -2.5%.
- Other ETFs: GLD, SLV, GDXJ, NUGT, AGQ, IAU, DUST, USLV, SIVR, JNUG, SGOL, ZSL, UGL, GLDX, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, JDST, DSLV, SLVP, OUNZ, DGL, DBS, SILJ, DGZ, RING, DGLD, AGOL, SGDM, PSAU, USV, UBG, BAR, BARS
Oct. 24, 2014, 4:48 AM
- Mali has confirmed its first case of Ebola, becoming the sixth West African country to report a case of the virus.
- The patient, a 2-year-old girl who had come from neighboring Guinea, was brought to a hospital in the Malian town of Kayes.
- Mali is Africa’s third-largest gold producer.
- Related gold stocks: GOLD -2.3% premarket; AU
- Ebola Small-cap Index: HEB, TKMR, NLNK, NNVC, INO, OTCQB:GOVX, SRPT, CMRX, PLX, NSPH, BCRX, LAKE, APT, VSR, SMED.
Oct. 9, 2014, 3:58 PM
- The price of gold may be rising, but gold mining stocks are getting hammered today; after all, "they are still stocks," Barron's Johanna Bennett writes.
- Gold prices rallied today to $1,234/oz., their highest level since Sept. 23, a day after the dovish minutes from the Fed’s September policy meeting excited gold bugs, but shares of the mining companies are falling along with the broader market selloff.
- Among the top mining names: IAG -6.9%, KGC -6.2%, SLW -5.9%, NGD -5.5%, AU -4.9%, GG -4.7%, ABX -3.9%, AUY -3.9%, GFI -2.8%, BTG -2.7%, RGLD -2.6%, AGI -2.1%, GOLD -1.8%.
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, AGQ, IAU, DUST, SIL, USLV, SIVR, JNUG, SGOL, ZSL, UGL, GLDX, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, JDST, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, SLVP, DGL, DBS, SILJ, DGZ, RING, OUNZ, GGGG, DGLD, AGOL, SGDM, PSAU
Oct. 8, 2014, 6:20 PM
- No investment sector benefited more today from the dovish take on the FOMC meeting minutes than precious metals miners, as the Fed's worries over weakening world economies and a strong U.S. dollar offer hope for gold bulls that the Fed will not rush to raise interest rates.
- Gold mining ETFs surged past those linked to the commodity price, with GDX +7.4% and GDXJ +9.6% while GLD +1%; among leveraged ETFs, NUGT +21.5%.
- Among major miners: BTG +14.4%, AGI +13.6%, GG +8.6%, RGLD +8.6%, SLW +8%, NGD +7.6%, IAG +7.5%, GFI +7%, AUY +6.9%, ABX +5.2%, AU +4.8%, KGC +3.5%.
- Other ETFs: SLV, AGQ, IAU, DUST, SIL, USLV, SIVR, JNUG, SGOL, ZSL, UGL, GLDX, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, JDST, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, SLVP, DGL, DBS, GLTR, SILJ, DGZ, RING, OUNZ, GGGG, DGLD, AGOL, DBP, SGDM, WITE, PSAU
Oct. 6, 2014, 2:45 PM
- Gold prices bounce off 15-month lows to reclaim $1,200/oz. as the dollar rally pauses, helping strengthen shares of precious metals miners: AU +4.4%, GFI +3%, IAG +1.9%, BTG +3%, GG +2.2%, NGD +1.5%, KGC +1.6%, AGI +1.6%, RGLD +1%, SLW +2.1%.
- Sterne Agee analysts Michael Dudas and Satyadeep Jain foresee gold and silver prices trending higher, with gold averaging $1,400/oz. in 2015 and $1,450 in 2016 and silver averaging $19 next year and $21 in 2016, as “global demand remains firm, liquidity remains ample and the dollar appears overbought.”
- With investor sentiment still skeptical, Sterne thinks any supportive macro news flow could provide fuel for a rally; the firm rate Newmont Mining (NEM +1.5%), Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM +2.4%), Coeur Mining (CDE +1.3%) and Gold Resource (GORO +0.2%) as Buys, with Barrick Gold (ABX +0.5%), Hecla Mining (HL +4.3%) and Pan American Silver (PAAS +1.5%) rated Neutral.
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, SGOL, ZSL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, OUNZ, DGLD, AGOL, DBP, TBAR, USV, UBG, JJP, GLDE, BAR, GYEN, GEUR, RGRP, BARS, GGBP, BLNG
Oct. 3, 2014, 4:13 AM
- Gold miners have the greatest exposure to the Ebola outbreak, Deutsche Bank says. Iron ore and aluminum miners, and oil drillers also have some exposure.
- Randgold's (NASDAQ:GOLD) exposure is most acute, with 100% of its NPV in the affected region.
- AngloGold (NYSE:AU) has 53% NPV exposure.
- ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) has some exposure through its iron-ore mine in Liberia (6.5% of its output).
- BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) and Anglo American (OTCPK:AAUKF, OTCPK:AAUKY) aren't exposed to the region.
- Related: Exxon delaying some west Africa drilling work because of Ebola (Oct. 2)
- Related: ArcelorMittal contractor moving workers out of Liberia (Aug. 8)
Sep. 15, 2014, 8:32 AM
- AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) +6.1% premarket after saying it is dropping its plan to spin off its global operations into a new London-listed company and seek a $2.1B rights issue.
- The plan met strong resistance from a number of shareholders, including John Paulson, whose hedge fund holds a 6.6% stake in the company.
Sep. 12, 2014, 11:27 AM
- South Africa’s central bank pressed AngloGold Ashanti (AU +2.2%) to increase the size of a planned share sale that’s opposed by hedge fund manager John Paulson, Bloomberg reports.
- AU is said to have initially sought to raise just over $1B from investors to strengthen its balance sheet, but that was increased to $2.1B to satisfy the concerns of the South African Reserve Bank over the split of the company into separate entities housing South African and international operations.
- The bank’s insistence may help explain why AU is moving forward with a plan that saw its shares fall sharply and drew criticism from investors including Paulson.
Sep. 11, 2014, 11:39 AM
- John Paulson, whose hedge fund holds a 6.6% stake in AngloGold Ashanti (AU -1%), says he opposes the miner’s plan to raise $2.1B from investors while spinning off non-South African assets because it will destroy shareholder value.
- AU announced yesterday it will create a new company holding its foreign assets; it plans to retain 65% of the new company, with the remaining equity distributed to shareholders.
- Paulson has said AU could unlock value if it split into a high-growth international business and a mature gold producer in South Africa, but "the way this restructuring is being implemented, it’s destroying value because of dilution."
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