The Investment Doctor • Mon, Jan. 26
Update: AuRico's Kemess East Resource Estimate Comes In Much Larger Than I ExpectedThe Investment Doctor • Mon, Jan. 26
- AuRico delineates a 5.5Moz AuEq resource estimate at Kemess East, bringing the total resources at the property to 10.5Moz AuEq.
- This is extremely impressive and a huge surprise.
- The investment thesis will definitely be updated as Kemess could play an important role in AuRico’s development pipeline.
Update: AuRico Gold's Kemess East Resource Estimate Is Impressive
- AuRico Gold released a maiden resource estimate for its Kemess East deposit.
- This is an unexpected positive development.
- Nevertheless the mine's economics would have to be incredibly robust to justify getting long this stock.
AuRico Gold: Young Davidson Drives Gold Growth; Cash Costs Move Higher In 2014
- AuRico Gold reported preliminary full year and fourth quarter gold production and cash costs for 2014.
- AuRico Gold's Young Davidson gold mine saw record fourth quarter production, coupled with a 30% rise in full year output.
- AuRico Gold operates at high costs, and this could steer gold investors to competing low-cost, high-margin gold producers.
Update: AuRico Gold Reports Strong Q4 Production, Shares Remain Overvalued
- AuRico Gold announced strong production results as its Young Davidson Mine continued to ramp up.
- This is in line with my expectations.
- Shares continue to be overvalued for a mid-tier producer despite its growth potential.
- The stock will likely rise if gold rises but there are better, cheaper options in the space.
Update: AuRico's Young Davidson Mine Remains On The Right Growth TrackThe Investment Doctor • Thu, Jan. 15
- AuRico announces once again an increased production rate at Young Davidson, but the Chanate mine is producing below expectations.
- I was expecting the Young Davidson production increase and I hope the current production rate will be confirmed in the 2015 guidance.
- The investment thesis will definitely need to be updated after the official 2015 guidance as I think AuRico has reached a turning point.
Update: AuRico Gold Announces $9 Million Net Free Cash Flow For Q4
- AuRico Gold just announced preliminary fourth-quarter production results of 40,945 ounces at total cash costs of $746 per ounce.
- The company recorded its 11th consecutive quarter of record gold production from its cornerstone Young-Davidson mine; more importantly, cash costs fell more than 15% annually.
- The solid production resulted in $9 million in net free cash flow and a year-end cash balance of $90 million.
Update: AuRico Gold Amends Its Royalty Agreement With Crocodile GoldBen Kramer-Miller • Dec. 23, 2014
- AuRico Gold has amended its royalty agreement with Crocodile Gold.
- The company will receive C$20 million upfront and retain a 2% NSR royalty on the Fosterville Gold Mine and a 1% NSR royalty on the Stawell Gold Mine.
- I had not anticipated this in my recent article.
- While this is a positive development for AuRico, the valuation is still rich, and I would continue to avoid the stock for now.
- AuRico has renegotiated its free cash flow-based deal with Crocodile Gold.
- This is a positive surprise as I prefer this fixed payout over a series of uncertain cash flows, especially in the current volatile gold market.
- The investment thesis won’t change, but it’s good to see the net debt being reduced. A more in-depth article will follow shortly.
- AuRico makes some exciting discoveries at the Kemess mine complex.
- This is a very positive surprise as the intercepts are longer than expected at a very decent copper-gold grade.
- If the company would be able to find a few hundred million tonnes of mineralized rocks, then that could be a game changer.
Update: AuRico Gold Finds A New Copper/Gold Porphyry Deposit At Its Kemess ProjectBen Kramer-Miller • Dec. 16, 2014
- AuRico Gold just announced the discovery of a copper/gold porphyry deposit at its Kemess Project.
- This is a positive development I had not anticipated.
- This is likely to be insufficient when it comes to bridging the valuation gap, and I think there are better gold opportunities out there.
Update: AuRico Gold Announces Massive New Gold-Copper Discovery At Kemess ProjectHard Asset Investments • Dec. 15, 2014
- AuRico Gold announced Monday that it has intersected a massive gold-copper porphyry at its Kemess project in British Columbia.
- The new discovery is located one kilometre east of the previously delineated Kemess underground deposit and 6.5 kilometres north of the mill facility.
- This news was unexpected and alters my investment thesis on AuRico. I think the company should find a partner for the project, and if successful, there's huge upside.
AuRico Gold Is A Gold Cow; Weak Gold Prices Weigh Down On Margins
- AuRico Gold reported earnings that came in-line with the Street's estimates but missed revenues.
- AuRico Gold is developing a low-cost copper-gold project that supports attractive economics.
- AuRico Gold is a high-cost producer, which is troublesome in the current gold environment, and significantly weighs down on margins.
Update: AuRico Gold Takes A Stake In Carlisle Goldfields, Forms A Strategic PartnershipBen Kramer-Miller • Nov. 13, 2014
- AuRico Gold formed a partnership with Carlisle Goldfields, whereby AuRico took a 20% stake in Carlisle and entered into a JV agreement on Carlisle's Lynn Lake Project.
- I had not anticipated this in my recent article on the company.
- This is a high risk/high reward deal, although it is good to see AuRico Gold pursue expansion efforts.
Update: AuRico Gold Is Moving Into Manitoba's Lynn Lake Gold Camp
- AuRico will invest in Carlisle Goldfields and its Lynn Lake project.
- This is a complete surprise. Carlisle was a value trap as it was trading at just $2.5/oz in the ground, and I hope AuRico will advance the project.
- This could potentially add a lot of value to AuRico if it can confirm (or improve) the numbers of the PEA.
- AuRico Gold reported a $15.7 million loss for the third quarter as production costs rose while gold prices fell.
- This is in line with my expectations.
- The company is improving its production metrics, buth shares are still overvalued: I continue to avoid the stock.
- AuRico Gold reported Q3 results which showed an improvement in all-in sustaining costs.
- Still, the company lost $5.58 million in the quarter and its cash balance decreased $40.3 million.
- AuRico still has some work to do on its cash costs and I'm holding off on initiating a position until I see further improvements.
Update: AuRico Earnings Report Shows The Impact Of The Young-Davidson Mine
- AuRico reports the ninth consecutive quarter with an increasing gold production.
- The company was still free cash flow negative, and I anticipated this in my original article.
- The bulk of the capex has already been spent, and AUQ could actually be free cash flow positive in 2015.
AuRico Gold: Rising Production And Falling Costs Aren't Enough - The 'Sell' Thesis Is Intact
- AuRico Gold has seen interest recently as it is increasing production and lowering costs.
- But this doesn't negate the long term trend of rising costs and high costs more generally.
- The company remains considerably overvalued on a quantitative basis, and there are now extenuating circumstances justifying this.
- Recent strength should be exploited: holders should take profits/cut losses, and gold bears should short the stock.
Update: AuRico Gold's Q3 Production Results Look Impressive
- AuRico Gold increased gold production while lowering costs.
- I had anticipated the former but not the latter.
- With shares so weak and production costs coming down I will consider my bearish outlook.
- Aurico Gold is a junior gold miner with two high quality assets.
- The company is ramping up production at its cornerstone Young Davidson mine while also decreasing cash costs; the company expects to be free cash flow positive by 2015 at current.
- In addition, Aurico Gold has a decent balance sheet with $140 million in cash and no debt maturing until 2020. .
- Aurico looks like an interesting stock at current levels and is worth considering for gold bulls.
Thu, Jan. 15, 5:39 PM
Thu, Jan. 15, 12:35 PM
- Gold, silver, platinum and palladium are spiking today on Switzerland's surprise move to abandon its currency floor, and shares of the miners are following suit: GDX +6.1%.
- "Gold is much stronger as the 'safety' of the Swiss Franc vanishes,” commented Dave Lutz of JonesTrading.
- Peter Boockvar believes that in "a world of currency battles with printing presses that are extraordinarily large... gold will be the last man standing... the gold bear market is over and will go substantially higher from here."
- Against a backdrop of concerns about global growth, deflation and renewed volatility, gold has been climbing since November as other growth-sensitive commodities such as oil and copper have sold off.
- Among precious metals miners: BTG +9.5%, GG +8.9%, KGC +8.7%, NEM +8.3%, AUY +8.1%, EGO +7.4%, [AGI +7%, [ABX]] +6.2%, NG +5.9%, AUQ +5.6%, FNV +5.5%, RGLD +5.4%, IAG +4.8%, GFI +4.2%, HL +4.2%, SLW +3.1%.
- Other ETFs: NUGT, GDXJ, DUST, SIL, JNUG, GLDX, JDST, SLVP, SILJ, RING, SGDM, PLTM, PSAU
Wed, Jan. 14, 9:57 AM
- AuRico Gold (AUQ +1.5%) reports its 11th consecutive quarter of record gold production from its Young-Davidson mine as well as annual consolidated results that are in-line with guidance levels.
- Consolidated results show ~224K oz. of gold estimated to have been produced in 2014.
- AUQ says its year-end cash balance totaled ~$90M, and that Q4 net free cash flow from Young-Davidson was ~$9M.
- Also says it received C$20M from the recently restructured royalty arrangement with Crocodile Gold.
Dec. 18, 2014, 5:39 PM
Dec. 15, 2014, 11:23 AM
- AuRico Gold (AUQ +3.6%) says it discovered a new gold-copper porphyry at Kemess East near the Kemess mill facility.
- AUQ says the discovery demonstrates the significant potential of the Kemess land package, with some of the program's drill holes ending in mineralization.
- AUQ says it plans to have an initial resource estimate for Kemess East in early 2015, after an initial mineralogical assessment indicated it is similar to the Kemess Underground deposit.
Dec. 10, 2014, 5:39 PM
Dec. 9, 2014, 5:36 PM
Dec. 5, 2014, 5:40 PM
Dec. 4, 2014, 12:15 PM
- AuRico Gold (AUQ -3.5%) is downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, which believes the impressive ramp-up of the Young-Davidson mine already has been priced in.
- The firm thinks the market is not reflecting the inherent risks remaining at Young-Davidson, which is still two years from its design underground mining rates of 8K tons/day, and sees the stock's premium is unjustified.
- New Gold (NGD -1.7%) provides investors with a stronger risk-reward profile at current levels, Stanley says.
Nov. 14, 2014, 10:58 AM
- The gold market will enter deficit by 2016 as producers cut capex, resulting in reduced supply in the medium- to long-term, Credit Suisse analyst Anita Soni writes, seeing 2014 as a likely plateau for supply (Briefing.com).
- Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM +2.6%) and Eldorado Gold (EGO +4.5%) are the firm's top picks among gold miners under coverage.
- Other Outperform rated gold companies are GG, KGC, AUY, AUQ, FNV, GSS and IAG; rated Neutral are ABX, NEM, NGD and AGI.
Nov. 6, 2014, 4:40 PM
Nov. 5, 2014, 5:35 PM
- ABCO, ACET, AEL, AGO, AIRM, AL, ALIM, AMRN, ANAC, ANET, APEI, ARC, AUQ, BBRG, BCEI, BEBE, BNFT, BPZ, BRKR, BRS, CFN, CLVS, CPST, CSC, CVT, DAR, DIOD, DIS, DVA, DXCM, EAC, EBS, ECOM, ECPG, ED, EGOV, ELON, ENOC, ENV, EVC, EZPW, FF, FI, FICO, FIVN, FNGN, FSLR, FTEK, FWM, FXCM, GST, GXP, HCI, HGR, HNSN, HPTX, HTGC, IGT, INFI, JJSF, KING, KOG, KTOS, LGF, LNT, LOCO, MATX, MDRX, MDVN, MITK, MM, MNST, MNTX, MRC, MSCC, MTD, NES, NFG, NKTR, NOG, NU, NVDA, NVDQ, OLED, ONTY, PCTY, PFMT, PRO, PSEC, PSIX, QTWO, RBCN, RENT, RIG, ROVI, RPTP, RRMS, RSYS, RXN, SAPE, SF, SFM, SLXP, SPPI, SSTK, SWKS, TCRD, TKMR, TRMR, TRNX, TUMI, UBNT, UEPS, UNXL, VOLC, VRNS, VVC, WAGE, WIFI, XOMA, XOXO, YUME, ZGNX, ZNGA
Nov. 5, 2014, 11:38 AM
- Spot gold skids to its lowest since April 2010 at $1,137/oz., below production costs for seven of 19 mining companies tracked by Bloomberg, including Harmony Gold (HMY -1.8%) and Primero Mining (PPP -2%).
- Harmony Gold said in its Q3 earnings report that all-in sustaining costs were $1,245/oz., while Primero reported all-in sustaining costs of $1,228; the most recent data from DRDGold (DRD -6.3%), AuRico Gold (AUQ +0.6%), Golden Star Resources (GSS +0.1%) and Alamos Gold (AGI -0.5%) also show costs higher than current prices.
- Maison Placements Canada brokerage's John Ing says a "two-tier type of market" is developing, where one tier of companies having solid assets and lower costs and another group saddled with high-cost operations and stretched balance sheets.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, JNUG, GLDX, JDST, SLVP, SILJ, RING, SGDM, PSAU
Nov. 3, 2014, 5:38 PM
Oct. 14, 2014, 10:59 AM
- AuRico Gold (AUQ +6.6%) reports its ninth consecutive quarter of record company-wide gold production, driven by record production from its cornerstone Young-Davidson mine in Ontario.
- Total Q3 production of 57K gold oz. represents gain of 1.5% Q/Q and 16% Y/Y; Young-Davidson production of 40.5K gold oz. represents gains of 35% Y/Y and 1% Q/Q.
- Underground cash costs fell 18% Q/Q to $656/gold oz., as total cash costs including the low-grade open pit stockpile fell 17% to $723/gold oz.
Oct. 3, 2014, 11:24 AM
- Among a number of rating changes made by RBC today, the team throws in the towel on its Outperform call on Kincross Gold (KGC -4.1%), downgrading to Sector Perform and cutting the price target to $4.50 from $5.50. Also downgraded is Lake Shore Gold (LSG -7.6%) - to Underperform from Sector Perform.
- Getting a little help from an upgrade as gold tumbles below $1,200 per ounce, is AuRico Gold (AUQ -0.3%) - now an Outperform thanks to attractive valuation, declining costs, and lower capital intensity. Also upgraded to Outperform is Fresnillo (OTCPK:FNLPF -8.3%), while Newmont Mining (NEM -1.3%) is boosted to Sector Perform from Underperform.
- The GDX is down 3.1% on the session.
- Previously: Stocks and dollar higher, bonds and gold lower following jobs number
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, JNUG, GLDX, JDST, RING, GGGG, SGDM, PSAU
AUQ vs. ETF Alternatives
Other News & PR